Decreasing mortality in patients hospitalized with cirrhosis

Trends in Cirrhosis and Mortality by Age, Sex, Race, and Antiviral Treatment Status Among US Chronic Hepatitis B Patients (2006-2016)

BACKGROUND

Changing US demographics and evolving chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treatments may affect longitudinal trends in CHB-related complications. We studied trends in the prevalence of cirrhosis (past or present) and incidence of all-cause mortality, stratified by patient age, sex, race, and antiviral treatment status, in a sample from US health care systems.

METHODS

Joinpoint and Poisson regression (univariate and multivariable) were used to estimate the annual percent change in each outcome from 2006 to 2016.

RESULTS

Among 5528 CHB patients, cirrhosis prevalence (including decompensated cirrhosis) rose from 6.7% in 2006 to 13.7% in 2016; overall mortality was unchanged. Overall rates of cirrhosis and mortality were higher among treated patients, but adjusted annual percent changes (aAPC) were significantly lower among treated than untreated patients (cirrhosis: aAPC +2.4% vs. +6.2%, mortality: aAPC -3.9% vs. +4.0%). Likewise, among treated patients, the aAPC for mortality declined -3.9% per year whereas among untreated patients, mortality increased +4.0% per year.

CONCLUSIONS

From 2006 to 2016, the prevalence of cirrhosis among CHB patients doubled. Notably, all-cause mortality increased among untreated patients but decreased among treated patients. These results suggest that antiviral treatment attenuates the progression of cirrhosis and the risk of death among patients with CHB.

Performance of High Mobility Protein Group 1 and Interleukin-6 as Predictors of Outcomes Resulting from Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

Variceal bleeding is a serious complication in cirrhotic patients and is related to increased expression of inflammatory mediators that accentuate circulatory dysfunction. The study aims to evaluate the performance of high mobility protein group 1 (HMG1) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) as predictors of acute kidney injury (AKI), infection and death in these patients. Fifty patients who were diagnosed with advanced chronic liver disease with variceal bleeding were included. The mean age was 52.8 ± 10.8 years, and 33 (66%) were male. Twenty-one (42%) patients were classified as Child-Pugh C, 21 (42%) Child-Pugh B and 8 (16%) Child-Pugh A. The mean HMG1 serum level was 2872.36 pg/mL ± 2491.94, and the median IL-6 serum level was 47.26 pg/mL (0-1102.4). In AKI, the serum level of HMG1 that performed best on the ROC curve was 3317.9 pg/mL. The IL-6 serum level was not associated with AKI. HMG1 and IL-6 cut-off values that better predicted infection were 3317.9 pg/mL and 72.9 pg/mL, and for mortality, the values were 2668 pg/mL and 84.5 pg/mL, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the variables that were associated with AKI and infection outcomes were model for end-stage liver disease and HMG1. Infections were related to the risk of death. Clinical and laboratory variables related to the outcomes were identified. Serum levels of HMG1 were associated with AKI and infection and had good performance in the ROC curve. IL-6 levels were not maintained in logistic regression outcomes but had good performance in infection and death outcomes. Such data will be useful for comparisons and possible future validations.

Rural-Urban Differences in In-Hospital Mortality Among Admissions for End-Stage Liver Disease in the United States

Access to quality hospital care is a persistent problem for rural patients. Little is known about disparities between rural and urban populations regarding in-hospital outcomes for end-stage liver disease (ESLD) patients. We aimed to determine whether rural ESLD patients experienced higher in-hospital mortality than urban patients and whether disparities were attributable to the rurality of the patient or the center. This was a retrospective study of patient admissions in the National Inpatient Sample, a population-based sample of hospitals in the United States. Admissions were included if they were from adult patients who had an ESLD-related admission defined by codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, between January 2012 and December 2014. The primary exposures of interest were patient-level rurality and hospital-level rurality. The main outcome was in-hospital mortality. We stratified our analysis by disease severity score. After accounting for patient- and hospital-level covariates, ESLD admissions to rural hospitals in every category of disease severity had significantly higher odds of in-hospital mortality than patient admissions to urban hospitals. Those with moderate or major risk of dying had more than twice the odds of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] for moderate risk, 2.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.62-3.59; OR for major risk, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.97-3.14). There was no association between patient-level rurality and mortality in the adjusted models. In conclusion, ESLD patients admitted to rural hospitals had increased odds of in-hospital mortality compared with those admitted to urban hospitals, and the differences were not attributable to patient-level rurality. Our results suggest that interventions to improve outcomes in this population should focus on the level of the health system.

Outcomes in Patients With Cirrhosis on Primary Compared to Secondary Prophylaxis for Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

OBJECTIVES

Antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended for prevention of the first episode of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP; primary prophylaxis 1°) and subsequent episodes (secondary prophylaxis 2°). We aimed to compare outcomes in cirrhotic inpatients on 1° vs 2° SBP prophylaxis.

METHODS

Data from North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease were evaluated for cirrhosis details, reasons for admission/medications, inpatient course recorded, and outcomes over 90 days. Outcomes (intensive care units, acute kidney injury, inpatient/90-day mortality) were compared between the 2 groups after propensity-matching on admission model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and serum albumin.

RESULTS

Among the 2,731 patients enrolled, 305 were on 1° and 187 on 2° SBP prophylaxis. After propensity-matching, 154 patients remained in each group. Patients on 1° prophylaxis were more likely to have admission systemic inflammatory response syndrome (P = 0.02), with higher intensive care unit admissions (31% vs 21%; P = 0.05) and inpatient mortality (19% vs 9%; P = 0.01) than the 2° prophylaxis group. Patients on 2° prophylaxis had higher total (22% vs 10%; P = 0004), readmission (16% vs 9%; P = 0.03), and nosocomial (6% vs 0.5%; P = 0.01) SBP rates with predominant Gram-negative organisms compared to 1° prophylaxis patients. At 90 days, 1° prophylaxis patients had a higher mortality (35% vs 22%; P = 0.02) and acute kidney injury incidence (48% vs 30%; P = 0.04) compared to 2° prophylaxis patients.

DISCUSSION

In this inpatient cirrhosis study, despite prophylaxis, a high proportion of patients developed SBP, which was associated with mortality. Cirrhotic inpatients on 1° prophylaxis had worse outcomes than those on 2° prophylaxis when propensity-matched for the MELD score and serum albumin during the index admission and 90-day follow-up.

Changing Trends in Etiology-Based and Ethnicity-Based Annual Mortality Rates of Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States

With recent improvements in the treatment of end-stage liver disease (ESLD), a better understanding of the burden of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is needed in the United States. A population-based study using the US Census and national mortality database was performed. We identified the age-standardized etiology-specific mortality rates for cirrhosis and HCC among US adults ages 20 years or older from 2007 to 2016. We determined temporal mortality rate patterns by joinpoint analysis with estimates of annual percentage change (APC). Age-standardized cirrhosis-related mortality rates increased from 19.77/100,000 persons in 2007 to 23.67 in 2016 with an annual increase of 2.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0-2.7). The APC in mortality rates for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-cirrhosis shifted from a 2.9% increase per year during 2007 to 2014 to a 6.5% decline per year during 2014 to 2016. Meanwhile, mortality for cirrhosis from alcoholic liver disease (ALD, APC 4.5%) and NAFLD (APC 15.4%) increased over the same period, whereas mortality for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-cirrhosis decreased with an average APC of -1.1%. HCC-related mortality increased from 3.48/100,000 persons in 2007 to 4.41 in 2016 at an annual rate of 2.0% (95% CI 1.3-2.6). Etiology-specific mortality rates of HCC were largely consistent with cirrhosis-related mortality. Minority populations had a higher burden of HCC-related mortality. Conclusion: Cirrhosis-related and HCC-related mortality rates increased between 2007 and 2016 in the United States. However, mortality rates in HCV-cirrhosis demonstrated a significant decline from 2014 to 2016, during the direct-acting antiviral era. Mortality rates for ALD/NAFLD-cirrhosis and HCC have continued to increase, whereas HBV-cirrhosis-related mortality declined during the 10-year period. Importantly, minorities had a disproportionately higher burden of ESLD-related mortality.

Changing trends in complications of chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related complications have increased over the past decade.

METHODS

We used join-point regression modelling to investigate trends in these complications from 2006 to 2015, and the impact of demographics on these trends. Using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study (CHeCS), we identified points at which the trend significantly changed, and estimated the annual percent change (APC) in rates of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and all-cause mortality, adjusted by race, sex and age.

RESULTS

Among 11,167 adults with chronic HCV infection, prevalence of cirrhosis increased from 20.8% to 27.6% from 2006 to 2015, with adjusted annual percentage change (aAPC) of 1.2 (p <. 01). Although incidence of all-cause mortality increased from 1.8% in 2006 to 2.9% in 2015, a join-point was identified at 2010, with aAPCs of 9.6 before (2006 < 2010; p < .01) and -5.2 after (2010 ≤ 2015; p < .01), indicating a decrease in mortality from 2010 and onward. Likewise, overall prevalence of decompensated cirrhosis increased from 9.3% in 2006 to 10.4% in 2015, but this increase was confined to patients 60 or older (aAPC = 1.5; p = .023). Asian American and Black/African American patients demonstrated significantly higher rates of cirrhosis than White patients, while older patients and men demonstrated higher rates of cirrhosis and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cirrhosis and mortality among HCV-infected patients in the US have increased over the past decade, all-cause mortality has decreased in recent years.

Trends in 30-Day and 1-Year Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized With Cirrhosis From 2004 to 2013

OBJECTIVES

Recent data suggest decreasing in-patient mortality in patients hospitalized with cirrhosis. We sought to determine if improvements in short-term outcomes for patients with cirrhosis are associated with changes in longer-term outcomes.

METHODS

We examined temporal trends in 30 days and 1-year postdischarge mortality among patients hospitalized with cirrhosis at any of the 126 Veterans Administration hospitals from 2004 and 2013. We adjusted for a range of demographic, liver disease severity, and comorbidity-related factors to account for differences in patient cohorts over time.

RESULTS

We identified 109,358 unique patients who were hospitalized with cirrhosis between 2004 and 2013. In-hospital mortality decreased from 11.4 to 7.6%, whereas 1-year mortality decreased from 34.5 to 33.2%. Over a third of out-of-hospital deaths occurred within the first 30 days after discharge; 30-day mortality increased from 9.3 to 10.1%. After adjusting for patient factors, the odds of in-hospital mortality in 2013 were 30% lower (adjusted odds ratio (OR)=0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.64-0.78), 1-year mortality were 13% lower (adjusted OR=0.87, 95% CI=0.82-0.93), whereas the 30-day mortality were 10% higher than 2004 (adjusted OR=1.10, 95% CI=0.99-1.21), although the latter did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients admitted with cirrhosis, reduction in in-hospital mortality was associated with less marked reduction in 1-year mortality, and an unchanged, if not higher, 30-day mortality following discharge. Our data suggest that some of the burden of mortality in cirrhosis has shifted from in-hospital to the immediate postdischarge period.

Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction Therapy Improves Patient and Caregiver-Reported Outcomes in Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Patient-reported outcomes such as health-related quality of life (HRQOL) are impaired in cirrhosis due to under-treated mood and sleep disorders, which can adversely impact their caregivers. Mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) can improve patient-reported outcomes (PRO) in non-cirrhotic patients but their impact in cirrhosis is unclear. To evaluate the effect of MBSR and supportive group therapy on mood, sleep and HRQOL in cirrhotic patients and their caregivers.

METHODS

Cirrhotic outpatients with mild depression (Beck Depression Inventory (BDI)>14) on screening with an adult caregiver were enrolled. At baseline, BDI, sleep (Pittsburgh sleep quality index PSQI, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, ESS), anxiety (Beck Anxiety inventory) and HRQOL (Sickness Impact Profile, SIP) for both patients/caregivers and caregiver burden (Zarit Burden Interview Short-form, ZBI-SF and perceived caregiver burden, PCB) and patient covert HE(CHE) status were measured. Patients who had BDI>14 at baseline, along with their caregivers then underwent a structured MBSR program with four weekly hour-long group sessions interspersed with home practice using CDs. After the last group, all questionnaires were repeated.

RESULTS

20 patient/caregiver dyads were included. All patients were men (60±8 years MELD 12.9±5.7, 14 prior hepatic encephalopathy (HE)) while most caregivers (n=15) were women (55±12 years, 23±14 years of relationship, 65% spouses). There was no change in patient BDI between screening and baseline (20.1±11.2 vs. 19.0±10.6, P=0.81). All dyads were able to complete the four MBSR+supportive group therapy sessions. There was a significant improvement in BDI (19.0±10.6 vs.15.6±8.2 P=0.01), PSQI (7.2±3.7 vs. 5.5±3.7, P<0.001) and overall HRQOL (25.0±13.2 vs. 17.7±14.0,P=0.01) but not in anxiety or CHE rates in patients. Similarly caregiver burden (ZBI-SF13.0±9.0 vs. 9.8±6.9,P=0.04, Perceived burden 72.1±29.9 vs. 63.0±14.5,P=0.05) and depression reduced (BDI 9.1±7.8 vs. 5.9±6.0,P=0.03) while caregiver sleep quality (7.2±3.7 vs. 5.5±3.7,P<0.001) improved. Prior HE did not affect PRO change after MBSR+supportive groups but the ZBI-SF of caregivers taking care of HE patients improved to a greater extent (delta -1.1±6.5 vs. 7.4±5.3 HE, P=0.04).

CONCLUSION

A short program of mindfulness and supportive group therapy significantly improves PRO and caregiver burden in cirrhotic patients with depression. This non-pharmacological method could be a promising approach to alleviate psychosocial stress in patients with end-stage liver disease and their caregivers.

Adventures in Developing an App for Covert Hepatic Encephalopathy

Patient-reported outcomes (PRO) are critical to understand the spectrum of disease in chronic conditions but are often ignored in clinical practice. Cirrhosis, one of the leading causes of morbidity, is associated with severely impaired PROs likely due to covert hepatic encephalopathy (CHE). The clinical relevance and logistic barriers to routine CHE testing led us to develop the “EncephalApp Stroop App”, which is now being used to diagnose CHE. The Primer discusses this example which can potentially be applied to other diseases.

Hospital resource intensity and cirrhosis mortality in United States

AIM

To determine whether hospital characteristics predict cirrhosis mortality and how much variation in mortality is attributable to hospital differences.

METHODS

We used data from the 2005-2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample and the American Hospital Association Annual survey to identify hospitalizations for decompensated cirrhosis and corresponding facility characteristics. We created hospital-specific risk and reliability-adjusted odds ratios for cirrhosis mortality, and evaluated patient and facility differences based on hospital performance quintiles. We used hierarchical regression models to determine the effect of these factors on mortality.

RESULTS

Seventy-two thousand seven hundred and thirty-three cirrhosis admissions were evaluated in 805 hospitals. Hospital mean cirrhosis annual case volume was 90.4 (range 25-828). Overall hospital cirrhosis mortality rate was 8.00%. Hospital-adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for mortality ranged from 0.48 to 1.89. Patient characteristics varied significantly by hospital aOR for mortality. Length of stay averaged 6.0 ± 1.6 days, and varied significantly by hospital performance (P < 0.001). Facility level predictors of risk-adjusted mortality were higher Medicaid case-mix (OR = 1.00, P = 0.029) and LPN staffing (OR = 1.02, P = 0.015). Higher cirrhosis volume (OR = 0.99, P = 0.025) and liver transplant program status (OR = 0.83, P = 0.026) were significantly associated with survival. After adjusting for patient differences, era, and clustering effects, 15.3% of variation between hospitals was attributable to differences in facility characteristics.

CONCLUSION

Hospital characteristics account for a significant proportion of variation in cirrhosis mortality. These findings have several implications for patients, providers, and health care delivery in liver disease care and inpatient health care design.

The 3-month readmission rate remains unacceptably high in a large North American cohort of patients with cirrhosis

In smaller single-center studies, patients with cirrhosis are at a high readmission risk, but a multicenter perspective study is lacking. We evaluated the determinants of 3-month readmissions among inpatients with cirrhosis using the prospective 14-center North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease cohort. Patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for nonelective indications provided consent and were followed for 3 months postdischarge. The number of 3-month readmissions and their determinants on index admission and discharge were calculated. We used multivariable logistic regression for all readmissions and for hepatic encephalopathy (HE), renal/metabolic, and infection-related readmissions. A score was developed using admission/discharge variables for the total sample, which was validated on a random half of the total population. Of the 1353 patients enrolled, 1177 were eligible on discharge and 1013 had 3-month outcomes. Readmissions occurred in 53% (n = 535; 316 with one, 219 with two or more), with consistent rates across sites. The leading causes were liver-related (n = 333; HE, renal/metabolic, and infections). Patients with cirrhosis and with worse Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score or diabetes, those taking prophylactic antibiotics, and those with prior HE were more likely to be readmitted. The admission model included Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and diabetes (c-statistic = 0.64, after split-validation 0.65). The discharge model included Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, proton pump inhibitor use, and lower length of stay (c-statistic = 0.65, after split-validation 0.70). Thirty percent of readmissions could not be predicted. Patients with liver-related readmissions consistently had index-stay nosocomial infections as a predictor for HE, renal/metabolic, and infection-associated readmissions (odds ratio = 1.9-3.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Three-month readmissions occurred in about half of discharged patients with cirrhosis, which were associated with cirrhosis severity, diabetes, and nosocomial infections; close monitoring of patients with advanced cirrhosis and prevention of nosocomial infections could reduce this burden. (Hepatology 2016;64:200-208).