Low Risk of Advanced Neoplasms for up to 20 Years After Negative Colonoscopy Result: Potential for Personalized Follow-up Screening Intervals

Longer Interval Between First Colonoscopy With Negative Findings for Colorectal Cancer and Repeat Colonoscopy

Importance

For individuals without a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC), colonoscopy screening every 10 years is recommended to reduce CRC incidence and mortality. However, debate exists about whether and for how long this 10-year interval could be safely expanded.

Objective

To assess how many years after a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC a second colonoscopy can be performed.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study leveraged Swedish nationwide register-based data to examine CRC diagnoses and CRC-specific mortality among individuals without a family history of CRC. The exposed group included individuals who had a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC at age 45 to 69 years between 1990 and 2016. The control group included individuals matched by sex, birth year, and baseline age (ie, the age of their matched exposed individual when the exposed individual's first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC was performed). Individuals in the control group either did not have a colonoscopy during the follow-up or underwent colonoscopy that resulted in a CRC diagnosis. Up to 18 controls were matched with each exposed individual. Individuals were followed up from 1990 to 2018, and data were analyzed from November 2022 to November 2023.

Exposure

A first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, defined as a first colonoscopy without a diagnosis of colorectal polyp, adenoma, carcinoma in situ, or CRC before or within 6 months after screening.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were CRC diagnosis and CRC-specific death. The 10-year standardized incidence ratio and standardized mortality ratio were calculated to compare risks of CRC and CRC-specific death in the exposed and control groups based on different follow-up screening intervals.

Results

The sample included 110 074 individuals (65 147 females [59.2%]) in the exposed group and 1 981 332 (1 172 646 females [59.2%]) in the control group. The median (IQR) age for individuals in both groups was 59 (52-64) years. During up to 29 years of follow-up of individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, 484 incident CRCs and 112 CRC-specific deaths occurred. After a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, the risks of CRC and CRC-specific death in the exposed group were significantly lower than those in their matched controls for 15 years. At 15 years after a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, the 10-year standardized incidence ratio was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.54-0.94) and the 10-year standardized mortality ratio was 0.55 (95% CI, 0.29-0.94). In other words, the 10-year cumulative risk of CRC in year 15 in the exposed group was 72% that of the 10-year cumulative risk of CRC in the control group. Extending the colonoscopy screening interval from 10 to 15 years in individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC could miss the early detection of only 2 CRC cases and the prevention of 1 CRC-specific death per 1000 individuals, while potentially avoiding 1000 colonoscopies.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that for the population without a family history of CRC, the 10-year interval between colonoscopy screenings for individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC could potentially be extended to 15 years. A longer interval between colonoscopy screenings could be beneficial in avoiding unnecessary invasive examinations.

Prevalence of Colorectal Neoplasia 10 or More Years After a Negative Screening Colonoscopy in 120 000 Repeated Screening Colonoscopies

Importance

Screening colonoscopy to prevent and early detect colorectal cancer is recommended to be repeated in 10-year intervals, which goes along with high demands of capacities and costs. Evidence of findings at screening colonoscopies conducted 10 or more years after a negative colonoscopy result is sparse, and it remains unclear whether screening colonoscopy intervals could possibly be prolonged.

Objective

To assess the prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasms (ADNs) at least 10 years after a negative screening colonoscopy in a very large cohort of repeated screening colonoscopy participants in Germany.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This registry-based cross-sectional study on screening colonoscopy findings reported to the German screening colonoscopy registry during January 2013 to December 2019 included data on screening colonoscopies that were offered to the German general population 55 years or older since 2002; virtually all screening colonoscopies among individuals covered by Statutory Health Insurance (approximately 90% of eligible adults) are reported to the national registry. A total of 120 298 repeat screening colonoscopy participants 65 years or older were identified who had a previous negative screening colonoscopy at least 10 years prior. The findings were compared with all screening colonoscopies conducted at 65 years or older during the same period (1.25 million). The data were analyzed from March to July 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Prevalence of colorectal cancers and ADNs (advanced adenomas and cancers).

Results

Of 120 298 participants, 72 349 (60.1%) were women. Prevalence of ADN was 3.6% and 5.2% among women and men 10 years after a negative screening colonoscopy and gradually increased to 4.9% and 6.6%, respectively, among those who had a negative colonoscopy 14 years or longer prior compared with 7.1% and 11.6% among all screening colonoscopies. Sex-specific and age-specific prevalence of ADNs at repeated colonoscopies conducted 10 or more years after a negative colonoscopy were consistently at least 40% lower among women than among men, lower at younger vs older ages, and much lower than among all screening colonoscopies (standardized prevalence ratios for cancers: 0.22-0.38 among women, 0.15-0.24 among men; standardized prevalence ratios for ADNs: 0.49-0.62 among women, 0.50-0.56 among men).

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this cross-sectional study suggest that ADN prevalence at screening colonoscopies conducted 10 or more years after a negative screening colonoscopy is low. Extension of the currently recommended 10-year screening intervals may be warranted, especially for female and younger participants without gastrointestinal symptoms.

ACG Clinical Guidelines: Colorectal Cancer Screening 2021

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in men and women in the United States. CRC screening efforts are directed toward removal of adenomas and sessile serrated lesions and detection of early-stage CRC. The purpose of this article is to update the 2009 American College of Gastroenterology CRC screening guidelines. The guideline is framed around several key questions. We conducted a comprehensive literature search to include studies through October 2020. The inclusion criteria were studies of any design with men and women age 40 years and older. Detailed recommendations for CRC screening in average-risk individuals and those with a family history of CRC are discussed. We also provide recommendations on the role of aspirin for chemoprevention, quality indicators for colonoscopy, approaches to organized CRC screening and improving adherence to CRC screening. CRC screening must be optimized to allow effective and sustained reduction of CRC incidence and mortality. This can be accomplished by achieving high rates of adherence, quality monitoring and improvement, following evidence-based guidelines, and removing barriers through the spectrum of care from noninvasive screening tests to screening and diagnostic colonoscopy. The development of cost-effective, highly accurate, noninvasive modalities associated with improved overall adherence to the screening process is also a desirable goal.