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Pastori D, Menichelli D, Li YG, Brogi T, Biccirè FG, Pignatelli P, Farcomeni A, Lip GYH. Usefulness of the C 2HEST score to predict new onset atrial fibrillation. A systematic review and meta-analysis on >11 million subjects. Eur J Clin Invest 2024:e14293. [PMID: 39072756 DOI: 10.1111/eci.14293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2024] [Accepted: 07/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/30/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is increasing in the last decades. NOAF is associated with worse long-term prognosis. The C2HEST score has been recently proposed to stratify the risk of NOAF. Pooled data on the performance of the C2HEST score are lacking. METHODS Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies reporting data on NOAF according to the C2HEST score. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Google scholar databases without time restrictions until June 2023 according to PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analysis of the area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and a sensitivity analysis according to setting of care and countries were performed. RESULTS Of 360 studies, 17 were included in the analysis accounting for 11,067,496 subjects/patients with 307,869 NOAF cases. Mean age ranged from 41.3 to 71.2 years. The prevalence of women ranged from 10.6 to 54.75%. The pooled analysis gave an AUC of .70 (95% CI .66-.74). A subgroup analysis on studies from general population/primary care yielded an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.64-0.75). In the subgroup of patients with cardiovascular disease, the AUC was .71 (.69-.79). The C2HEST score performed similarly in Asian (AUC .72, 95% CI .68-.77), and in Western patients (AUC .68, 95% CI .62-.75). The best performance was observed in studies with a mean age <50 years (n = 3,144,704 with 25,538 NOAF, AUC .78, 95% CI .76-.79). CONCLUSION The C2HEST score may be used to predict NOAF in primary and secondary prevention patients, and in patients across different countries. Early detection of NOAF may aid prompt initiation of management and follow-up, potentially leading to a reduction of AF-related complications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniele Pastori
- Department of Clinical Internal, Anesthesiological, and Cardiovascular Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK
| | - Danilo Menichelli
- Department of Clinical Internal, Anesthesiological, and Cardiovascular Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Department of General and Specialized Surgery "Paride Stefanini", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Yan-Guang Li
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Tommaso Brogi
- Department of Clinical Internal, Anesthesiological, and Cardiovascular Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Flavio Giuseppe Biccirè
- Department of General and Specialized Surgery "Paride Stefanini", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Pasquale Pignatelli
- Department of Clinical Internal, Anesthesiological, and Cardiovascular Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Alessio Farcomeni
- Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome 'Tor Vergata', Rome, Italy
| | - Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK
- Danish Center for Clinical Health Services Research, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
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Paquin A, Voisine P, Poirier P, Clavel MA, O'Connor S, Roberge J, Piché ME. Sex-Specific Cardiometabolic Determinants of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery. Can J Cardiol 2024:S0828-282X(24)00089-8. [PMID: 38342292 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjca.2024.02.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2023] [Revised: 01/19/2024] [Accepted: 02/05/2024] [Indexed: 02/13/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiometabolic diseases increase the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF), a complication leading to higher long-term risk of major cardiovascular events (MACE). It remains unknown whether the effect of these risk factors differs according to sex. We sought to evaluate the sex-specific predictors of POAF after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS In a prospective registry of patients undergoing isolated CABG, we compared predictors of POAF between sexes with logistic regression models. Because of high prevalence of abdominal obesity in women, > 80% having a waist circumference (WC) ≥ 88 cm, median WC values were used to define abdominal obesity (men ≥ 102 cm, women ≥ 100 cm). RESULTS This analysis included 6177 individuals (17% women). Mean age was 65.6 ± 8.9 years. POAF occurred in 32% of men and 28% of women (P < 0.05). Compared with men, women with POAF had similar WC; higher prevalence of hypertension and diabetes; lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol; and higher glucose, triglyceride, low- density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, and C-reactive protein levels (all P < 0.05). After adjustment, age and abdominal obesity were associated with POAF in both sexes (P < 0.05). The interaction of WC with sex suggested a worse impact of WC on POAF risk among women (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-2.62 vs in men 1.33; 95% CI, 1.17-1.50; P for interaction = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Abdominal obesity is a major predictor of POAF in both sexes, with higher risk in women. These results emphasize the need for enhanced strategies to manage abdominal obesity and its cardiometabolic consequences in the general population and the potential to develop sex-specific preventive interventions to reduce risk of POAF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amélie Paquin
- Institut Universitaire de Cardiologie et de Pneumologie de Québec-Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Pierre Voisine
- Institut Universitaire de Cardiologie et de Pneumologie de Québec-Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Paul Poirier
- Institut Universitaire de Cardiologie et de Pneumologie de Québec-Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Marie-Annick Clavel
- Institut Universitaire de Cardiologie et de Pneumologie de Québec-Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Sarah O'Connor
- Institut Universitaire de Cardiologie et de Pneumologie de Québec-Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Jeanne Roberge
- Institut Universitaire de Cardiologie et de Pneumologie de Québec-Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Marie-Eve Piché
- Institut Universitaire de Cardiologie et de Pneumologie de Québec-Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada.
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Hassler KR, Ramakrishna H. Predicting Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation: The Search Continues. J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth 2022; 36:3738-3739. [DOI: 10.1053/j.jvca.2022.06.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Accepted: 06/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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