Pretransplantation disease severity and posttransplantation outcome

Impact of pretransplant MELD score on posttransplant outcome in living donor liver transplantation

It is not clear whether pretransplantation MELD (model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score can foresee posttransplant outcome. We retrospectively evaluated 80 adult patients (55 men, 25 women) who underwent living donor liver transplantation between September 1998 and March 2003. Five other patients with fulminant hepatitis were excluded. The UNOS-modified MELD scores were calculated to stratify patients into three groups: group 1) MELD score less than 15 (n = 13); group 2) MELD score 15 to 24 (n = 36); and group 3) MELD score 25 and higher (n = 26). The patients were predominantly men (n = 52, 69.3%) with overall mean age of 43.9 years (range, 17-62 years). The mean follow-up was 15.7 months (range, 1-47; median = 14 months). The mean MELD score was 22.7 (range, 9-50; median = 21). The overall 1- and 2-year patient survivals were 87% and 78.7%, respectively. The 1-year patient survivals for groups 1, 2, and 3 were 100%, 87%, and 79%; respectively. 2-year survivals, 100%, 79%, and 61%, respectively. Survivals stratified by MELD showed no statistically remarkable differences in 1-year and 2-year patient survival (P = .08). In contrast, 1-year and 2-year patient survival rates for UNOS status 2A, 2B, and 3 were 73%-50%, 95%-91%, and 91%-91%, statistically significant difference (P = .002). Finally, to date preoperative MELD score showed no significant impact on 1- and 2-year posttransplant outcomes in adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation recipients, but we await longer-term follow-up with greater numbers of patients.

Pretransplant MELD score and post liver transplantation survival in the UK and Ireland

It has been shown that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an accurate predictor of survival in patients with liver disease without transplantation. Four recent studies carried out in the United States have demonstrated that the MELD score obtained immediately prior to transplantation is also associated with post-transplant patient survival. Our aim was to evaluate how accurately the MELD score predicts 90-day post-transplant survival in adult patients with chronic liver disease in the UK and Ireland. The UK and Ireland Liver Transplant Audit has data on all liver transplants since 1994. We studied survival of 3838 adult patients after first elective liver transplantation according to United Network for Organ Sharing categories of their MELD scores (< or = 10, 11-18, 19-24, 25-35, > or =36). The overall survival at 90-days was 90.2%. The 90-day survival varied according to the United Network for Organ Sharing MELD categories (92.6%, 91.9%, 89.7%, 89.7%, and 70.8%, respectively; P < 0.01). Therefore, only those patients with a MELD score of 36 or higher (3% of the patients) had a survival that was markedly lower than the rest. As a consequence, the ability of the MELD score to discriminate between patients who were dead or alive was poor (c-statistic 0.58). Re-estimating the coefficients in the MELD regression model, even allowing for nonlinear relationships, did not improve its discriminatory ability. In conclusion, in the UK and Ireland the MELD score is significantly associated with post-transplant survival, but its predictive ability is poor. These results are in agreement with results found in the United States. Therefore, the most appropriate system to support patient selection for transplantation will be one that combines a pretransplant survival model (e.g., MELD score) with a properly developed post-transplant survival model.

Comparative analysis of outcome following liver transplantation in US veterans

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether there was a difference in mortality following orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in a US veteran (VA) population (n = 149) compared to a non-VA (university) population (n = 285) and what factors could explain this difference. Survival following OLT for 149 VA patients was compared with that of 285 university patients. By Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, VA patients had higher mortality than university patients with respective 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival of 82%, 75%, and 68% vs. 87%, 82%, and 78% (p = 0.006). Gender, etiology of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and donor age (i.e. older than 34 years) also significantly influenced survival. However, when donor and recipient age, gender, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and etiology of liver disease were included with hospital status in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, the VA population did not have higher mortality. A final model to predict mortality following transplantation was derived for all 434 patients where individuals were assigned risk scores based on the equation R = 0.219 (gender) + 0.018 (donor age) + 0.032 (recipient age) + 0.021 (MELD), where recipient age, donor age, and MELD score are the respective continuous variables and gender = 1 (men) and 0 for women (c-statistic = 0.71).