Transition path sampling for discrete master equations with absorbing states

Predicting DNA kinetics with a truncated continuous-time Markov chain method

Predicting the kinetics of reactions involving nucleic acid strands is a fundamental task in biology and biotechnology. Reaction kinetics can be modeled as an elementary step continuous-time Markov chain, where states correspond to secondary structures and transitions correspond to base pair formation and breakage. Since the number of states in the Markov chain could be large, rates are determined by estimating the mean first passage time from sampled trajectories. As a result, the cost of kinetic predictions becomes prohibitively expensive for rare events with extremely long trajectories. Also problematic are scenarios where multiple predictions are needed for the same reaction, e.g., under different environmental conditions, or when calibrating model parameters, because a new set of trajectories is needed multiple times. We propose a new method, called pathway elaboration, to handle these scenarios. Pathway elaboration builds a truncated continuous-time Markov chain through both biased and unbiased sampling. The resulting Markov chain has moderate state space size, so matrix methods can efficiently compute reaction rates, even for rare events. Also the transition rates of the truncated Markov chain can easily be adapted when model or environmental parameters are perturbed, making model calibration feasible. We illustrate the utility of pathway elaboration on toehold-mediated strand displacement reactions, show that it well-approximates trajectory-based predictions of unbiased elementary step models on a wide range of reaction types for which such predictions are feasible, and demonstrate that it performs better than alternative truncation-based approaches that are applicable for mean first passage time estimation. Finally, in a small study, we use pathway elaboration to optimize the Metropolis kinetic model of Multistrand, an elementary step simulator, showing that the optimized parameters greatly improve reaction rate predictions. Our framework and dataset are available at https://github.com/DNA-and-Natural-Algorithms-Group/PathwayElaboration.

Path factorization approach to stochastic simulations

The computational efficiency of stochastic simulation algorithms is notoriously limited by the kinetic trapping of the simulated trajectories within low energy basins. Here we present a new method that overcomes kinetic trapping while still preserving exact statistics of escape paths from the trapping basins. The method is based on path factorization of the evolution operator and requires no prior knowledge of the underlying energy landscape. The efficiency of the new method is demonstrated in simulations of anomalous diffusion and phase separation in a binary alloy, two stochastic models presenting severe kinetic trapping.

A hybrid MD-kMC algorithm for folding proteins in explicit solvent

We present a novel hybrid MD-kMC algorithm that is capable of efficiently folding proteins in explicit solvent. We apply this algorithm to the folding of a small protein, Trp-Cage. Different kMC move sets that capture different possible rate limiting steps are implemented. The first uses secondary structure formation as a relevant rate event (a combination of dihedral rotations and hydrogen-bonding formation and breakage). The second uses tertiary structure formation events through formation of contacts via translational moves. Both methods fold the protein, but via different mechanisms and with different folding kinetics. The first method leads to folding via a structured helical state, with kinetics fit by a single exponential. The second method leads to folding via a collapsed loop, with kinetics poorly fit by single or double exponentials. In both cases, folding times are faster than experimentally reported values, The secondary and tertiary move sets are integrated in a third MD-kMC implementation, which now leads to folding of the protein via both pathways, with single and double-exponential fits to the rates, and to folding rates in good agreement with experimental values. The competition between secondary and tertiary structure leads to a longer search for the helix-rich intermediate in the case of the first pathway, and to the emergence of a kinetically trapped long-lived molten-globule collapsed state in the case of the second pathway. The algorithm presented not only captures experimentally observed folding intermediates and kinetics, but yields insights into the relative roles of local and global interactions in determining folding mechanisms and rates.

Estimating time-correlation functions by sampling and unbiasing dynamically activated events

Transition path sampling is a rare-event method that estimates state-to-state time-correlation functions in many-body systems from samples of short trajectories. In this framework, it is proposed to bias the importance function using the lowest Jacobian eigenvalue moduli along the dynamical trajectory. A lowest eigenvalue modulus is related to the lowest eigenvalue of the Hessian matrix and is evaluated here using the Lanczos algorithm as in activation-relaxation techniques. This results in favoring the sampling of activated trajectories and enhancing the occurrence of the rare reactive trajectories of interest, those corresponding to transitions between locally stable states. Estimating the time-correlation functions involves unbiasing the sample of simulated trajectories which is done using the multi-state Bennett acceptance ratio (MBAR) method. To assess the performance of our procedure, we compute the time-correlation function associated with the migration of a vacancy in α-iron. The derivative of the estimated time-correlation function yields a migration rate in agreement with the one given by transition state theory. Besides, we show that the information relative to rejected trajectories can be recycled within MBAR, resulting in a substantial speed-up. Unlike original transition path-sampling, our approach does not require computing the reversible work to confine the trajectory endpoints to a reactive state.