Parametric sensitivity analysis for stochastic molecular systems using information theoretic metrics

Estimation of the infinitesimal generator by square-root approximation

In recent years, for the analysis of molecular processes, the estimation of time-scales and transition rates has become fundamental. Estimating the transition rates between molecular conformations is-from a mathematical point of view-an invariant subspace projection problem. We present a method to project the infinitesimal generator acting on function space to a low-dimensional rate matrix. This projection can be performed in two steps. First, we discretize the conformational space in a Voronoi tessellation, then the transition rates between adjacent cells is approximated by the geometric average of the Boltzmann weights of the Voronoi cells. This method demonstrates that there is a direct relation between the potential energy surface of molecular structures and the transition rates of conformational changes. We will show also that this approximation is correct and converges to the generator of the Smoluchowski equation in the limit of infinitely small Voronoi cells. We present results for a two dimensional diffusion process and alanine dipeptide as a high-dimensional system.

Uncertainty quantification and propagation of errors of the Lennard-Jones 12-6 parameters for n-alkanes

Molecular simulation has the ability to predict various physical properties that are difficult to obtain experimentally. For example, we implement molecular simulation to predict the critical constants (i.e., critical temperature, critical density, critical pressure, and critical compressibility factor) for large n-alkanes that thermally decompose experimentally (as large as C₄₈). Historically, molecular simulation has been viewed as a tool that is limited to providing qualitative insight. One key reason for this perceived weakness in molecular simulation is the difficulty to quantify the uncertainty in the results. This is because molecular simulations have many sources of uncertainty that propagate and are difficult to quantify. We investigate one of the most important sources of uncertainty, namely, the intermolecular force field parameters. Specifically, we quantify the uncertainty in the Lennard-Jones (LJ) 12-6 parameters for the CH₄, CH₃, and CH₂ united-atom interaction sites. We then demonstrate how the uncertainties in the parameters lead to uncertainties in the saturated liquid density and critical constant values obtained from Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo simulation. Our results suggest that the uncertainties attributed to the LJ 12-6 parameters are small enough that quantitatively useful estimates of the saturated liquid density and the critical constants can be obtained from molecular simulation.

Sensitivity estimation for stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks in the presence of extrinsic variability

Determining the sensitivity of certain system states or outputs to variations in parameters facilitates our understanding of the inner working of that system and is an essential design tool for the de novo construction of robust systems. In cell biology, the output of interest is often the response of a certain reaction network to some input (e.g., stressors or nutrients) and one aims to quantify the sensitivity of this response in the presence of parameter heterogeneity. We argue that for such applications, parametric sensitivities in their standard form do not paint a complete picture of a system's robustness since one assumes that all cells in the population have the same parameters and are perturbed in the same way. Here, we consider stochasticreaction networks in which the parameters are randomly distributed over the population and propose a new sensitivity index that captures the robustness of system outputs upon changes in the characteristics of the parameter distribution, rather than the parameters themselves. Subsequently, we make use of Girsanov's likelihood ratio method to construct a Monte Carlo estimator of this sensitivity index. However, it turns out that this estimator has an exceedingly large variance. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel estimation algorithm that makes use of a marginalization of the path distribution of stochasticreaction networks and leads to Rao-Blackwellized estimators with reduced variance.