Stochasticity induced mixed-mode oscillations and distribution of recurrent outbreaks in an ecosystem

Analysis of the onset of a regime shift and detecting early warning signs of major population changes in a two-trophic three-species predator-prey model with long-term transients

Identifying early warning signs of sudden population changes and mechanisms leading to regime shifts are highly desirable in population biology. In this paper, a two-trophic ecosystem comprising of two species of predators, competing for their common prey, with explicit interference competition is considered. With proper rescaling, the model is portrayed as a singularly perturbed system with fast prey dynamics and slow dynamics of the predators. In a parameter regime near singular Hopf bifurcation, chaotic mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs), featuring concatenation of small and large amplitude oscillations are observed as long-lasting transients before the system approaches its asymptotic state. To analyze the dynamical cause that initiates a large amplitude oscillation in an MMO orbit, the model is reduced to a suitable normal form near the singular-Hopf point. The normal form possesses a separatrix surface that separates two different types of oscillations. A large amplitude oscillation is initiated if a trajectory moves from the "inner" to the "outer side" of this surface. A set of conditions on the normal form variables are obtained to determine whether a trajectory would exhibit another cycle of MMO dynamics before experiencing a regime shift (i.e. approaching its asymptotic state). These conditions serve as early warning signs for a sudden population shift as well as detect the onset of a regime shift in this ecological model.

Stochastic mixed-mode oscillations in a three-species predator-prey model

The effect of demographic stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with one fast and two slow variables is studied. We derive the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from a discrete model. For suitable parameter values, the deterministic drift part of the model admits a folded node singularity and exhibits a singular Hopf bifurcation. We focus on the parameter regime near the Hopf bifurcation, where small amplitude oscillations exist as stable dynamics in the absence of noise. In this regime, the stochastic model admits noise-driven mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs), which capture the intermediate dynamics between two cycles of population outbreaks. We perform numerical simulations to calculate the distribution of the random number of small oscillations between successive spikes for varying noise intensities and distance to the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the effect of noise on a suitable Poincaré map. Finally, we prove that the stochastic model can be transformed into a normal form near the folded node, which can be linked to recent results on the interplay between deterministic and stochastic small amplitude oscillations. The normal form can also be used to study the parameter influence on the noise level near folded singularities.