Effect of time varying transmission rates on the coupled dynamics of epidemic and awareness over a multiplex network

Impact of random and targeted disruptions on information diffusion during outbreaks

Outbreaks are complex multi-scale processes that are impacted not only by cellular dynamics and the ability of pathogens to effectively reproduce and spread, but also by population-level dynamics and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. A timely exchange of information related to the spread of novel pathogens, stay-at-home orders, and other measures can be effective at containing an infectious disease, particularly during the early stages when testing infrastructure, vaccines, and other medical interventions may not be available at scale. Using a multiplex epidemic model that consists of an information layer (modeling information exchange between individuals) and a spatially embedded epidemic layer (representing a human contact network), we study how random and targeted disruptions in the information layer (e.g., errors and intentional attacks on communication infrastructure) impact the total proportion of infections, peak prevalence (i.e., the maximum proportion of infections), and the time to reach peak prevalence. We calibrate our model to the early outbreak stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020. Mitigation campaigns can still be effective under random disruptions, such as failure of information channels between a few individuals. However, targeted disruptions or sabotage of hub nodes that exchange information with a large number of individuals can abruptly change outbreak characteristics, such as the time to reach the peak of infection. Our results emphasize the importance of the availability of a robust communication infrastructure during an outbreak that can withstand both random and targeted disruptions.

The coevolution of contagion and behavior with increasing and decreasing awareness

Understanding the effects of individual awareness on epidemic phenomena is important to comprehend the coevolving system dynamic, to improve forecasting, and to better evaluate the outcome of possible interventions. In previous models of epidemics on social networks, individual awareness has often been approximated as a generic personal trait that depends on social reinforcement, and used to introduce variability in state transition probabilities. A novelty of this work is to assume that individual awareness is a function of several contributing factors pooled together, different by nature and dynamics, and to study it for different epidemic categories. This way, our model still has awareness as the core attribute that may change state transition probabilities. Another contribution is to study positive and negative variations of awareness, in a contagion-behavior model. Imitation is the key mechanism that we model for manipulating awareness, under different network settings and assumptions, in particular regarding the degree of intentionality that individuals may exhibit in spreading an epidemic. Three epidemic categories are considered-disease, addiction, and rumor-to discuss different imitation mechanisms and degree of intentionality. We assume a population with a heterogeneous distribution of awareness and different response mechanisms to information gathered from the network. With simulations, we show the interplay between population and awareness factors producing a distribution of state transition probabilities and analyze how different network and epidemic configurations modify transmission patterns.

Epidemic spreading on multilayer homogeneous evolving networks

Multilayer networks are widely used to characterize the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The study of epidemic spreading dynamics on multilayer networks has become a hot topic in network science. Although many models have been proposed to explore epidemic spreading across different networks, there is still a lack of models to study the spreading of diseases in the process of evolution on multilayer homogeneous networks. In the present work, we propose an epidemic spreading dynamic model of homogeneous evolving networks that can be used to analyze and simulate the spreading of epidemics on such networks. We determine the global epidemic threshold. We make the interesting discovery that increasing the epidemic threshold of a single network layer is conducive to mitigating the spreading of an epidemic. We find that the initial average degree of a network and the evolutionary parameters determine the changes in the epidemic threshold and the spreading process. An approach for calculating the falling and rising threshold zones is presented. Our work provides a good strategy to control epidemic spreading. Generally, controlling or changing the threshold in a single network layer is easier than trying to directly change the threshold in all network layers. Numerical simulations of small-world and random networks further support and enrich our conclusions.