Complex networks identification using Bayesian model with independent Laplace prior

The reconstruction on the game networks with binary-state and multi-state dynamics

Reconstruction of network is to infer the relationship among nodes using observation data, which is helpful to reveal properties and functions of complex systems. In view of the low reconstruction accuracy based on small data and the subjectivity of threshold to infer adjacency matrix, the paper proposes two models: the quadratic compressive sensing (QCS) and integer compressive sensing (ICS). Then a combined method (CCS) is given based on QCS and ICS, which can be used on binary-state and multi-state dynamics. It is found that CCS is usually a superior method comparing with compressive sensing, LASSO on several networks with different structures and scales. And it can infer larger node correctly than the other two methods. The paper is conducive to reveal the hidden relationship with small data so that to understand, predicate and control a vast intricate system.

Weighted Bayesian Poisson Regression for The Number of Children Ever Born per Woman in Bangladesh

Number of children ever born to women of reproductive age forms a core component of fertility and is vital to the population dynamics in any country. Using Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2019 data, we fitted a novel weighted Bayesian Poisson regression model to identify multi-level individual, household, regional and societal factors of the number of children ever born among married women of reproductive age in Bangladesh. We explored the robustness of our results using multiple prior distributions, and presented the Metropolis algorithm for posterior realizations. The method is compared with regular Bayesian Poisson regression model using a Weighted Bayesian Information Criterion. Factors identified emphasize the need to revisit and strengthen the existing fertility-reduction programs and policies in Bangladesh.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44199-022-00044-2.

Introduction to Focus Issue: Recent advances in modeling complex systems: Theory and applications

This is an introductory paper of the Focus Issue Recent advances in modeling complex systems: Theory and applications, where papers presenting new advances and insights into chaotic dynamics, fractional dynamics, complex oscillations, complex traffic dynamics, and complex networks, as well as their applications, are collected. All these different problems share common ideas and methods and provide new perspectives for further progress in the modeling of complex systems.