Tensor-train approximation of the chemical master equation and its application for parameter inference

Tensor product algorithms for inference of contact network from epidemiological data

We consider a problem of inferring contact network from nodal states observed during an epidemiological process. In a black-box Bayesian optimisation framework this problem reduces to a discrete likelihood optimisation over the set of possible networks. The cardinality of this set grows combinatorially with the number of network nodes, which makes this optimisation computationally challenging. For each network, its likelihood is the probability for the observed data to appear during the evolution of the epidemiological process on this network. This probability can be very small, particularly if the network is significantly different from the ground truth network, from which the observed data actually appear. A commonly used stochastic simulation algorithm struggles to recover rare events and hence to estimate small probabilities and likelihoods. In this paper we replace the stochastic simulation with solving the chemical master equation for the probabilities of all network states. Since this equation also suffers from the curse of dimensionality, we apply tensor train approximations to overcome it and enable fast and accurate computations. Numerical simulations demonstrate efficient black-box Bayesian inference of the network.

Advanced methods for gene network identification and noise decomposition from single-cell data

Central to analyzing noisy gene expression systems is solving the Chemical Master Equation (CME), which characterizes the probability evolution of the reacting species' copy numbers. Solving CMEs for high-dimensional systems suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Here, we propose a computational method for improved scalability through a divide-and-conquer strategy that optimally decomposes the whole system into a leader system and several conditionally independent follower subsystems. The CME is solved by combining Monte Carlo estimation for the leader system with stochastic filtering procedures for the follower subsystems. We demonstrate this method with high-dimensional numerical examples and apply it to identify a yeast transcription system at the single-cell resolution, leveraging mRNA time-course experimental data. The identification results enable an accurate examination of the heterogeneity in rate parameters among isogenic cells. To validate this result, we develop a noise decomposition technique exploiting time-course data but requiring no supplementary components, e.g., dual-reporters.

Feedback between stochastic gene networks and population dynamics enables cellular decision-making

Phenotypic selection occurs when genetically identical cells are subject to different reproductive abilities due to cellular noise. Such noise arises from fluctuations in reactions synthesizing proteins and plays a crucial role in how cells make decisions and respond to stress or drugs. We propose a general stochastic agent-based model for growing populations capturing the feedback between gene expression and cell division dynamics. We devise a finite state projection approach to analyze gene expression and division distributions and infer selection from single-cell data in mother machines and lineage trees. We use the theory to quantify selection in multi-stable gene expression networks and elucidate that the trade-off between phenotypic switching and selection enables robust decision-making essential for synthetic circuits and developmental lineage decisions. Using live-cell data, we demonstrate that combining theory and inference provides quantitative insights into bet-hedging-like response to DNA damage and adaptation during antibiotic exposure in Escherichia coli.

Distilling dynamical knowledge from stochastic reaction networks

Stochastic reaction networks are widely used in the modeling of stochastic systems across diverse domains such as biology, chemistry, physics, and ecology. However, the comprehension of the dynamic behaviors inherent in stochastic reaction networks is a formidable undertaking, primarily due to the exponential growth in the number of possible states or trajectories as the state space dimension increases. In this study, we introduce a knowledge distillation method based on reinforcement learning principles, aimed at compressing the dynamical knowledge encoded in stochastic reaction networks into a singular neural network construct. The trained neural network possesses the capability to accurately predict the state conditional joint probability distribution that corresponds to the given query contexts, when prompted with rate parameters, initial conditions, and time values. This obviates the need to track the dynamical process, enabling the direct estimation of normalized state and trajectory probabilities, without necessitating the integration over the complete state space. By applying our method to representative examples, we have observed a high degree of accuracy in both multimodal and high-dimensional systems. Additionally, the trained neural network can serve as a foundational model for developing efficient algorithms for parameter inference and trajectory ensemble generation. These results collectively underscore the efficacy of our approach as a universal means of distilling knowledge from stochastic reaction networks. Importantly, our methodology also spotlights the potential utility in harnessing a singular, pretrained, large-scale model to encapsulate the solution space underpinning a wide spectrum of stochastic dynamical systems.