Analysis of urban-rural population dynamics for China

Modelling urban-rural population growth in China

"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China.... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established.... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."

Trends in Labour Supply and the Future of Employment in China

An accounts-based population model for making population projections for the urban and rural areas of China was developed and reported on in detail in an earlier paper. In this paper the implications of the broad trends in population and labour-force growth over the next fifty years for the employment position in China will be discussed. Unemployment and underemployment are problems facing China today. Ongoing economic reform in the employment system runs the risk of rapidly increasing the number of unemployed, especially in urban China. In this paper, the following main dimensions of the employment problem in China will be discussed: Labour-resource utilization and employment structure, the dual employment system between urban and rural areas, unemployment and underemployment, employment-system reform, and labour-force quality and training.

Spatial-dynamic population systems: analysis and projection

"In this paper a set of more-detailed multiregional population accounts is proposed to specify more realistically the exposure time of populations at risk for various components of population change. The concepts of population-time at risk and forward demographic rates based on the initial population are discussed. The relations of the forward demographic rates defined in this paper with the occurrence-exposure demographic rates are discussed. A more precise and straightforward multiregional population model is developed on the basis of forward demographic rates. The model is also expressed in the familiar matrix form of multiregional, cohort-survival models." Some applications of the model are made to data for China.

Analysis of urban-rural population dynamics of China: a multiregional life table approach

This is the second of two papers in which the urban-rural population dynamics of China is analyzed. Urban-rural population life tables are constructed in this paper. The differential urban and rural population dynamics are revealed by the calculations of life expectations, net reproduction expectations, and net migraproduction expectations in the urban and rural regions of China.