Spatial-dynamic population systems: analysis and projection

Modelling regional population growth in China

"This paper develops a forward demographic rates-based multiregional population model on the basis of a set of multiregional population accounts. Forward emigration rates and immigration flows are adopted to describe the external migrations. The model is used to make consistent multiregional population projections of China at a provincial level.... Three sets of multiregional population projections of China at provincial level are made for the period 1987-2087. It is found that the national population trend is a combination of various regional population trends. Some regions, such as Zhejiang, will reach their population peak as early as the beginning of the next century while other regions, such as Xinjiang, will face continuous population growth in the first half of the next century."

Trends in Labour Supply and the Future of Employment in China

An accounts-based population model for making population projections for the urban and rural areas of China was developed and reported on in detail in an earlier paper. In this paper the implications of the broad trends in population and labour-force growth over the next fifty years for the employment position in China will be discussed. Unemployment and underemployment are problems facing China today. Ongoing economic reform in the employment system runs the risk of rapidly increasing the number of unemployed, especially in urban China. In this paper, the following main dimensions of the employment problem in China will be discussed: Labour-resource utilization and employment structure, the dual employment system between urban and rural areas, unemployment and underemployment, employment-system reform, and labour-force quality and training.