Prediction of nitrogen excretion from data on dairy cows fed a wide range of diets compiled in an intercontinental database: A meta-analysis

Manure nitrogen (N) from cattle contributes to nitrous oxide and ammonia emissions and nitrate leaching. Measurement of manure N outputs on dairy farms is laborious, expensive, and impractical at large scales; therefore, models are needed to predict N excreted in urine and feces. Building robust prediction models requires extensive data from animals under different management systems worldwide. Thus, the study objectives were (1) to collate an international database of N excretion in feces and urine based on individual lactating dairy cow data from different continents; (2) to determine the suitability of key variables for predicting fecal, urinary, and total manure N excretion; and (3) to develop robust and reliable N excretion prediction models based on individual data from lactating dairy cows consuming various diets. A raw data set was created based on 5,483 individual cow observations, with 5,420 fecal N excretion and 3,621 urine N excretion measurements collected from 162 in vivo experiments conducted by 22 research institutes mostly located in Europe (n = 14) and North America (n = 5). A sequential approach was taken in developing models with increasing complexity by incrementally adding variables that had a significant individual effect on fecal, urinary, or total manure N excretion. Nitrogen excretion was predicted by fitting linear mixed models including experiment as a random effect. Simple models requiring dry matter intake (DMI) or N intake performed better for predicting fecal N excretion than simple models using diet nutrient composition or milk performance parameters. Simple models based on N intake performed better for urinary and total manure N excretion than those based on DMI, but simple models using milk urea N (MUN) and N intake performed even better for urinary N excretion. The full model predicting fecal N excretion had similar performance to simple models based on DMI but included several independent variables (DMI, diet crude protein content, diet neutral detergent fiber content, milk protein), depending on the location, and had root mean square prediction errors as a fraction of the observed mean values of 19.1% for intercontinental, 19.8% for European, and 17.7% for North American data sets. Complex total manure N excretion models based on N intake and MUN led to prediction errors of about 13.0% to 14.0%, which were comparable to models based on N intake alone. Intercepts and slopes of variables in optimal prediction equations developed on intercontinental, European, and North American bases differed from each other, and therefore region-specific models are preferred to predict N excretion. In conclusion, region-specific models that include information on DMI or N intake and MUN are required for good prediction of fecal, urinary, and total manure N excretion. In absence of intake data, region-specific complex equations using easily and routinely measured variables to predict fecal, urinary, or total manure N excretion may be used, but these equations have lower performance than equations based on intake.

Predicting Immediate Marginal Milk Responses and Evaluating the Economics of Two-Variable Input Tactical Feeding Decisions in Grazing Dairy Cows

Feed is the largest variable cost for dairy farms in Australia, and dairy farmers are faced with the challenge of profitably feeding their cows in situations where there is significant variation in input costs and milk price. In theory, the addition of 5.2 MJ of metabolisable energy to a lactating cow's diet should be capable of supporting an increase in milk production of one litre of milk of 4.0% fat, 3.2% protein and 4.9% lactose. However, this is almost never seen in practice, due to competition for energy from other processes (e.g., body tissue gain), forage substitution, associative effects and imbalances in rumen fermentation. Pasture species, stage of maturity, pasture mass, allowance and intake, stage of lactation, cow body condition and type of supplement can all affect the milk protein plus fat production response to additional feed consumed by grazing dairy cows. We developed a model to predict marginal milk protein plus fat response/kg DM intake when lactating dairy cows consume concentrates and pasture + forages. Data from peer reviewed published experiments undertaken in Australia were collated into a database. Meta-analysis techniques were applied to the data and a two-variable quadratic polynomial production function was developed. Production economic theory was used to estimate the level of output for given quantities of input, the marginal physical productivity of each input, the isoquants for any specified level of output and the optimal input combination for given costs and prices of inputs and output. The application of the model and economic overlay was demonstrated using four scenarios based on a farm in Gippsland, Victoria. Given that feed accounts for the largest input cost in dairying, allocation of pasture and supplements that are based on better estimates of marginal milk responses to supplements should deliver increased profit from either savings in feed costs, or in some cases, increased output to approach the point where marginal revenue equals marginal costs. Such data are critical if the industry is to take advantage of the opportunities to use supplements to improve both productivity and profitability.

Potential of legume-based grassland-livestock systems in Europe: a review

European grassland-based livestock production systems face the challenge of producing more meat and milk to meet increasing world demands and to achieve this using fewer resources. Legumes offer great potential for achieving these objectives. They have numerous features that can act together at different stages in the soil-plant-animal-atmosphere system, and these are most effective in mixed swards with a legume proportion of 30-50%. The resulting benefits include reduced dependence on fossil energy and industrial N-fertilizer, lower quantities of harmful emissions to the environment (greenhouse gases and nitrate), lower production costs, higher productivity and increased protein self-sufficiency. Some legume species offer opportunities for improving animal health with less medication, due to the presence of bioactive secondary metabolites. In addition, legumes may offer an adaptation option to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and climate change. Legumes generate these benefits at the level of the managed land-area unit and also at the level of the final product unit. However, legumes suffer from some limitations, and suggestions are made for future research to exploit more fully the opportunities that legumes can offer. In conclusion, the development of legume-based grassland-livestock systems undoubtedly constitutes one of the pillars for more sustainable and competitive ruminant production systems, and it can be expected that forage legumes will become more important in the future.

Potential impacts of negative associative effects between concentrate supplements, pasture and conserved forage for milk production and dairy farm profit

A case study and whole-farm modelling approach was used to examine the potential impacts of negative associative effects on milk production and economic performance of two dairy farms in northern Victoria. The two case studies differed in herd and farm size, calving pattern, forages grown and use of labour, but both had production systems based on grazed pasture, grain fed in the dairy at milking and conserved hay fed out in the paddock. The feeding system of each farm was altered by implementing a partial mixed ration (PMR), where cows grazed once a day and received supplements in a well formulated mix once a day. Negative associative effects between feeds were included in the biophysical modelling by deriving a relationship from published studies between declining neutral detergent fibre digestibility and increasing grain intake. Before applying a PMR system, both farms were profitable and earning competitive rates of return after tax, with mean real internal rate of return higher than 5%, and positive mean annual operating profit and mean net present value, at a discount rate of 5%. Feeding a PMR enabled both farms to increase profitability and internal rate of return, particularly if milk production was increased as well, but only when associative effects were less than those in the feeding system based on grain fed in the dairy and hay in the paddock. Increased profitability was also associated with higher standard deviation in annual operating profit, internal rate of return and net present value, in other words risk increased under the PMR feeding system, as the businesses would be more vulnerable to fluctuating supplementary feed prices.