Are Wild Prey Sufficient for the Top Predators in the Lowland Protected Areas of Nepal?

A balanced equilibrium between carnivores and their prey is crucial for maintaining ecosystem sustainability. In this study, we applied the predator-prey power law equation to assess the balance between the biomass densities of carnivores and their wild prey within Nepal's lowland protected areas during 2013, 2018, and 2022. The estimated value of the power law exponent k for predator-prey biomass was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.39-1.05), indicating an approximate threefold increase in predator biomass density for every fivefold increase in prey biomass density. Consequently, this creates a systematically bottom-heavy predator-prey biomass pyramid. This finding, consistent with the k = 3/4 trophic biomass scaling across ecosystems, suggests that predator biomass is proportionally sustained by prey biomass, indicating a balance between top predators and their wild prey in Nepal's lowland protected areas. We further demonstrated it is possible to retain the overall power law exponent while jointly measuring intraguild competition between two predators with canonical correlation analysis. This understanding opens avenues for future research directed toward unraveling the factors that drive these consistent growth patterns in ecological communities.

Phylogenetic analysis linked fatal neurologic disease in leopards (Panthera pardus) to Asia-5 lineage of canine distemper virus in Nepal

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is responsible for a highly contagious and often fatal neurological disease that affects various carnivores, including domestic dogs. In Nepal, recent reports of CDV exposure and illness in leopards (Panthera pardus) have raised concerns about the transmission of the virus among domestic dogs and wild carnivores. To investigate the genetic lineage and spread of CDV, our study utilized archived post-mortem samples from four leopards that exhibited clinical signs suggestive of canine distemper infection. These leopards were rescued in the Palpa, Dolakha, Kathmandu, and Parbat districts. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that the CDV strains circulating among the leopards belong to the Asia-5 lineage, which is also prevalent among dogs and wild carnivores in Nepal and neighboring India. The genetic relatedness between the leopard CDV sequences and those from both dogs and other carnivores within the Asia-5 lineage suggests that leopards in Nepal may have acquired the virus from multiple sources, potentially facilitated by their generalist dietary habits preying on dogs and even mesocarnivores. Furthermore, we inspected specific amino acid substitution in the hemagglutinin gene of leopard CDV, which also suggests possible transmission from both domestic dogs and non-canid hosts, although further research is needed to draw definitive conclusions. Given the vulnerable state of the leopard population in Nepal, already threatened by poaching and retaliatory killing, the emergence of CDV as a potential novel threat is deeply concerning. Comprehensive surveillance studies are essential to understand the dynamics of CDV spillover and to develop informed interventions. Urgent measures, including vaccination programs and effective control of the dog population, are needed to mitigate the impact of this disease and safeguard the future of Nepal's leopards and other wild carnivores.

Cub Survival in a Wild Leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) Population

We investigated the survival of cubs in a wild Indian leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) population in the Jhalana Reserve Forest (JRF), India. The research focuses on analyzing the survival of leopard cubs during their first two years of life. Survival functions were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method based on data collected with trail cameras over four years from 2018 to 2021. We found that the mean survival probability of cubs during the first year of life was 0.739, indicating that this period is particularly challenging for their survival. In the second year, the survival probability increased to 0.831, reflecting an improvement in survival as the cubs grew older. The combined survival rate over the two-year period, calculated as the product of the first- and second-year survival rates, was 0.618. These findings highlight the critical periods in the early life stages of leopard cubs, which are essential for developing effective conservation strategies in fragmented habitats to enhance their survival.

Prey selection by leopards (Panthera pardus fusca) in the mid-hill region of Nepal

Information on prey selection and the diet of the leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) is essential for leopard conservation. We conducted an investigation into the prey species and the proportion of each species in the leopard's diet in a human-dominated mid-hill region of Nepal. The analysis of 96 leopard scats collected between August 2020 and March 2021 revealed that leopards consumed 15 prey species, including small- and medium-sized mammals and livestock. In addition to these prey species, we also found plastic materials, bird feathers, and some unidentified items in the leopard scats. Wild ungulates (such as barking deer, Muntiacus muntjak and wild boar, Sus scrofa) constituted only 10% of the biomass in the scats, while livestock contributed 27%, and other wild prey contributed 50%. Among all species, domestic goats had the highest relative biomass in the scats, followed by the jungle cat (Felis chaus), domestic dog (Canis familiaris), and large Indian civet (Viverra zibetha). Similarly, the Indian hare (Lepus nigricollis) had the highest proportion of relative individuals present in the scat samples, followed by the jungle cat and the large Indian civet. A lower proportion of biomass from wild ungulates in the leopard's diet and a higher dependency of the leopard on domestic prey and other wild prey indicate a shortage of medium-sized wild prey, such as barking deer and wild boar, in leopard habitats. Therefore, the conservation of wild prey species, especially medium-sized prey, is crucial for reducing the leopard's dependence on livestock and mitigating human-leopard conflicts in the future.

That's not the Mona Lisa! How to interpret spatial capture-recapture density surface estimates

Spatial capture-recapture methods are often used to produce density surfaces, and these surfaces are often misinterpreted. In particular, spatial change in density is confused with spatial change in uncertainty about density. We illustrate correct and incorrect inference visually by treating a grayscale image of the Mona Lisa as an activity center intensity or density surface and simulating spatial capture-recapture survey data from it. Inferences can be drawn about the intensity of the point process generating activity centers, and about the likely locations of activity centers associated with the capture histories obtained from a single survey of a single realization of this process. We show that treating probabilistic predictions of activity center locations as estimates of the intensity of the process results in invalid and misleading ecological inferences, and that predictions are highly dependent on where the detectors are placed and how much survey effort is used. Estimates of the activity center density surface should be obtained by estimating the intensity of a point process model for activity centers. Practitioners should state explicitly whether they are estimating the intensity or making predictions of activity center location, and predictions of activity center locations should not be confused with estimates of the intensity.

Canine Distemper Virus in Tigers (Panthera tigris) and Leopards (P. pardus) in Nepal

From wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in the Serengeti to tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in the Russian Far East, canine distemper virus (CDV) has been repeatedly identified as a threat to wild carnivores. Between 2020 and 2022, six Indian leopards (P. pardus fusca) presented to Nepali authorities with fatal neurological disease, consistent with CDV. Here, we report the findings of a serosurvey of wild felids from Nepal. A total of 48 serum samples were tested, comprising 28 Bengal tigers (P. t. tigris) and 20 Indian leopards. Neutralizing antibodies were identified in three tigers and six leopards, equating to seroprevalences of 11% (CI: 2.8-29.3%, n = 28) and 30% (CI: 12.8-54.3%, n = 20), respectively. More than one-third of seropositive animals were symptomatic, and three died within a week of being sampled. The predation of domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) has been posited as a potential route of infection. A comparison of existing diet studies revealed that while leopards in Nepal frequently predate on dogs, tigers do not, potentially supporting this hypothesis. However, further work, including molecular analyses, would be needed to confirm this.

The Javan Leopard Panthera pardus melas (Cuvier, 1809) (Mammalia: Carnivora: Felidae) in West Java, Indonesia: estimating population density and occupancy

The Javan Leopard is endemic to the Indonesian island of Java and has been classified as Endangered. Reliable information about its population status, distribution, and density is lacking but are essential to guide conservation efforts and provide a benchmark for management decisions. Our study represents the first empirical density and occupancy estimates for the Leopard in West Java and provides baseline data for this region. We used camera trap data collected from February 2009 to October 2018 in six study areas comprising a sampling effort of 10,955 camera trap days in a total area of 793.5 km2. We identified 55 individual Leopards in these areas and estimated Leopard density using spatially explicit capture-recapture. Population density estimates range from 4.9 individuals/100 km2 in Gunung Guntur-Papandayan Nature Reserve to 16.04 individuals/100 km2 in Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park. Latter is among the globally highest Leopard densities. Based on detection data, we modelled single-season Leopard occupancy using three sampling covariates and eight site covariates. Modelling revealed that the two covariates forest cover and presence of Wild Boar are the strongest predictors for Leopard occupancy in our study areas. We recommend assessing and monitoring Leopard distribution, density and occupancy in other areas of Java and emphasize that a landscape approach for conservation of the Javan Leopard is imperative.

Leopard (Panthera pardus) occupancy in the Chure range of Nepal

Conservation of large carnivores such as leopards requires large and interconnected habitats. Despite the wide geographic range of the leopard globally, only 17% of their habitat is within protected areas. Leopards are widely distributed in Nepal, but their population status and occupancy are poorly understood. We carried out the sign-based leopard occupancy survey across the entire Chure range (~19,000 km2) to understand the habitat occupancy along with the covariates affecting their occupancy. Leopard signs were obtained from in 70 out of 223 grids surveyed, with a naïve leopard occupancy of 0.31. The model-averaged leopard occupancy was estimated to be 0.5732 (SE 0.0082) with a replication-level detection probability of 0.2554 (SE 0.1142). The top model shows the additive effect of wild boar, ruggedness, presence of livestock, and human population density positively affecting the leopard occupancy. The detection probability of leopard was higher outside the protected areas, less in the high NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) areas, and higher in the areas with livestock presence. The presence of wild boar was strong predictor of leopard occupancy followed by the presence of livestock, ruggedness, and human population density. Leopard occupancy was higher in west Chure (0.70 ± SE 0.047) having five protected areas compared with east Chure (0.46 ± SE 0.043) with no protected areas. Protected areas and prey species had positive influence on leopard occupancy in west Chure range. Similarly in the east Chure, the leopard occupancy increased with prey, NDVI, and terrain ruggedness. Enhanced law enforcement and mass awareness activities are necessary to reduce poaching/killing of wild ungulates and leopards in the Chure range to increase leopard occupancy. In addition, maintaining the sufficient natural prey base can contribute to minimize the livestock depredation and hence decrease the human-leopard conflict in the Chure range.

A Camera-Trap Home-Range Analysis of the Indian Leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) in Jaipur, India

The suitability of the camera trap-retrap method was explored for identifying territories and studying the spatial distribution of leopards (Panthera pardus fusca) in the Jhalana Reserve Forest, Jaipur, India. Data from two years (November 2017 to November 2019, N = 23,208 trap-hours) were used to provide estimates of minimum home-range size and overlap. We conducted home-range analysis and estimation, using the minimum convex polygon (MCP) method with geographic information system (GIS) tools. We are aware of the limitations and advantages of camera trapping for long-term monitoring. However, the limitations of the research permit allowed only the use of camera traps to estimate the home ranges. A total of 25 leopards were identified (male = 8, female = 17). No territorial exclusivity was observed in either of the sexes. However, for seven females, we observed familial home-range overlaps wherein daughters established home ranges adjacent to or overlapping their natal areas. The median home range, as calculated from the MCP, was 305.9 ha for males and 170.3 ha for females. The median percentage overlap between males was 10.33%, while that between females was 3.97%. We concluded that camera trapping is an effective technique to map the territories of leopards, to document inter- and intraspecific behaviors, and to elucidate how familial relationships affect dispersal.