Cultural hitchhiking on the wave of advance of beneficial technologies

Spread of the cycles: a feedback perspective on the Anthropocene

What propelled the human 'revolutions' that started the Anthropocene? and what could speed humanity out of trouble? Here, we focus on the role of reinforcing feedback cycles, often comprised of diverse, unrelated elements (e.g. fire, grass, humans), in propelling abrupt and/or irreversible, revolutionary changes. We suggest that differential 'spread of the cycles' has been critical to the past human revolutions of fire use, agriculture, rise of complex states and industrialization. For each revolution, we review and map out proposed reinforcing feedback cycles, and describe how new systems built on previous ones, propelling us into the Anthropocene. We argue that to escape a bleak Anthropocene will require abruptly shifting from existing unsustainable 'vicious cycles', to alternative sustainable 'virtuous cycles' that can outspread and outpersist them. This will need to be complemented by a revolutionary cultural shift from maximizing growth to maximizing persistence (sustainability). To achieve that we suggest that non-human elements need to be brought back into the feedback cycles underlying human cultures and associated measures of progress. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Stochastic cellular automaton model of culture formation

We introduce a stochastic cellular automaton as a model for culture and border formation. The model can be conceptualized as a game where the expansion rate of cultures is quantified in terms of their area and perimeter in such a way that approximately geometrically round cultures get a competitive advantage. We first analyze the model with periodic boundary conditions, where we study how the model can end up in a fixed state, i.e., freezes. Then we implement the model on the European geography with mountains and rivers. We see how the model reproduces some qualitative features of European culture formation, namely, that rivers and mountains are more frequently borders between cultures, mountainous regions tend to have higher cultural diversity, and the central European plain has less clear cultural borders.

Fitting the reproduction number from UK coronavirus case data and why it is close to 1

We present a method for rapid calculation of coronavirus growth rates and [Formula: see text]-numbers tailored to publicly available UK data. We assume that the case data comprise a smooth, underlying trend which is differentiable, plus systematic errors and a non-differentiable noise term, and use bespoke data processing to remove systematic errors and noise. The approach is designed to prioritize up-to-date estimates. Our method is validated against published consensus [Formula: see text]-numbers from the UK government and is shown to produce comparable results two weeks earlier. The case-driven approach is combined with weight-shift-scale methods to monitor trends in the epidemic and for medium-term predictions. Using case-fatality ratios, we create a narrative for trends in the UK epidemic: increased infectiousness of the B1.117 (Alpha) variant, and the effectiveness of vaccination in reducing severity of infection. For longer-term future scenarios, we base future [Formula: see text] on insight from localized spread models, which show [Formula: see text] going asymptotically to 1 after a transient, regardless of how large the [Formula: see text] transient is. This accords with short-lived peaks observed in case data. These cannot be explained by a well-mixed model and are suggestive of spread on a localized network. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

A three-population wave-of-advance model for the European early Neolithic

Ancient DNA studies have shown that early farming spread through most of Europe by the range expansion of farmers of Anatolian origin rather than by the conversion to farming of the local hunter-gatherers, and have confirmed that these hunter-gatherers continued to coexist with the incoming farmers. In this short report, I extend a previous three-population wave-of-advance model to accommodate these new findings, and derive the conditions supportive of such a scenario in terms of the relative magnitudes of the parameters. The revised model predicts that the conversion rate must, not surprisingly, be low, but also that the hunter-gatherers must compete more strongly with the converted farmers than with the alien farmers. Moreover, competition with the hunter-gatherers diminishes the speed of the wave-of advance of the farmers. In addition, I briefly consider how the wave-of-advance approach may contribute to interpreting the results of archaeological studies using the summed probability distribution of radiocarbon dates.

Assessing the importance of cultural diffusion in the Bantu spread into southeastern Africa

The subsistence of Neolithic populations is based on agriculture, whereas that of previous populations was based on hunting and gathering. Neolithic spreads due to dispersal of populations are called demic, and those due to the incorporation of hunter-gatherers are called cultural. It is well-known that, after agriculture appeared in West Africa, it spread across most of subequatorial Africa. It has been proposed that this spread took place alongside with that of Bantu languages. In eastern and southeastern Africa, it is also linked to the Early Iron Age. From the beginning of the last millennium BC, cereal agriculture spread rapidly from the Great Lakes area eastwards to the East African coast, and southwards to northeastern South Africa. Here we show that the southwards spread took place substantially more rapidly (1.50–2.27 km/y) than the eastwards spread (0.59–1.27 km/y). Such a faster southwards spread could be the result of a stronger cultural effect. To assess this possibility, we compare these observed ranges to those obtained from a demic-cultural wave-of-advance model. We find that both spreads were driven by demic diffusion, in agreement with most archaeological, linguistic and genetic results. Nonetheless, the southwards spread seems to have indeed a stronger cultural component, which could lead support to the hypothesis that, at the southern areas, the interaction with pastoralist people may have played a significant role.

Inferring patterns of folktale diffusion using genomic data

Observable patterns of cultural variation are consistently intertwined with demic movements, cultural diffusion, and adaptation to different ecological contexts [Cavalli-Sforza and Feldman (1981) Cultural Transmission and Evolution: A Quantitative Approach; Boyd and Richerson (1985) Culture and the Evolutionary Process]. The quantitative study of gene-culture coevolution has focused in particular on the mechanisms responsible for change in frequency and attributes of cultural traits, the spread of cultural information through demic and cultural diffusion, and detecting relationships between genetic and cultural lineages. Here, we make use of worldwide whole-genome sequences [Pagani et al. (2016) Nature 538:238-242] to assess the impact of processes involving population movement and replacement on cultural diversity, focusing on the variability observed in folktale traditions (n = 596) [Uther (2004) The Types of International Folktales: A Classification and Bibliography. Based on the System of Antti Aarne and Stith Thompson] in Eurasia. We find that a model of cultural diffusion predicted by isolation-by-distance alone is not sufficient to explain the observed patterns, especially at small spatial scales (up to [Formula: see text]4,000 km). We also provide an empirical approach to infer presence and impact of ethnolinguistic barriers preventing the unbiased transmission of both genetic and cultural information. After correcting for the effect of ethnolinguistic boundaries, we show that, of the alternative models that we propose, the one entailing cultural diffusion biased by linguistic differences is the most plausible. Additionally, we identify 15 tales that are more likely to be predominantly transmitted through population movement and replacement and locate putative focal areas for a set of tales that are spread worldwide.

Forensic genetic analyses in isolated populations with examples of central European Valachs and Roma

Isolated populations present a constant threat to the correctness of forensic genetic casework. In this review article we present several examples of how analyzing samples from isolated populations can bias the results of the forensic statistics and analyses. We select our examples from isolated populations from central and southeastern Europe, namely the Valachs and the European Roma. We also provide the reader with general strategies and principles to improve the laboratory practice (best practice) and reporting of samples from supposedly isolated populations. These include reporting the precise population data used for computing the forensic statistics, using the appropriate θ correction factor for calculating allele frequencies, typing ancestry informative markers in samples of unknown or uncertain ethnicity and establishing ethnic-specific forensic databases.

Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

BACKGROUND

Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.

METHOD AND RESULTS

We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

New patterns in human biogeography revealed by networks of contacts between linguistic groups

Human languages differ broadly in abundance and are distributed highly unevenly on the Earth. In many qualitative and quantitative aspects, they strongly resemble biodiversity distributions. An intriguing and previously unexplored issue is the architecture of the neighbouring relationships between human linguistic groups. Here we construct and characterize these networks of contacts and show that they represent a new kind of spatial network with uncommon structural properties. Remarkably, language networks share a meaningful property with food webs: both are quasi-interval graphs. In food webs, intervality is linked to the existence of a niche space of low dimensionality; in language networks, we show that the unique relevant variable is the area occupied by the speakers of a language. By means of a range model analogous to niche models in ecology, we show that a geometric restriction of perimeter covering by neighbouring linguistic domains explains the structural patterns observed. Our findings may be of interest in the development of models for language dynamics or regarding the propagation of cultural innovations. In relation to species distribution, they pose the question of whether the spatial features of species ranges share architecture, and eventually generating mechanism, with the distribution of human linguistic groups.

The near-eastern roots of the Neolithic in South Asia

The Fertile Crescent in the Near East is one of the independent origins of the Neolithic, the source from which farming and pottery-making spread across Europe from 9,000 to 6,000 years ago at an average rate of about 1 km/yr. There is also strong evidence for causal connections between the Near-Eastern Neolithic and that further east, up to the Indus Valley. The Neolithic in South Asia has been far less explored than its European counterpart, especially in terms of absolute (¹⁴C) dating; hence, there were no previous attempts to assess quantitatively its spread in Asia. We combine the available ¹⁴C data with the archaeological evidence for early Neolithic sites in South Asia to analyze the spatio-temporal continuity of the Neolithic dispersal from the Near East through the Middle East and to the Indian subcontinent. We reveal an approximately linear dependence between the age and the geodesic distance from the Near East, suggesting a systematic (but not necessarily uniform) spread at an average speed of about 0.65 km/yr.

Symbiote transmission and maintenance of extra-genomic associations

Symbiotes can be transmitted from parents to offspring or horizontally from unrelated hosts or the environment. A key question is whether symbiote transmission is similar enough to Mendelian gene transmission to generate and maintain coevolutionary associations between host and symbiote genes. Recent papers come to opposite conclusions, with some suggesting that any horizontal transmission eliminates genetic association. These studies are hard to compare owing to arbitrary differences in modeling approach, parameter values, and assumptions about selection. I show that associations between host and symbiote genes (extra-genomic associations) can be described by the same dynamic model as conventional linkage disequilibria between genes in the same genome. Thus, covariance between host and symbiote genomes depends on population history, geographic structure, selection, and co-transmission rate, just as covariance between genes within a genome. The conclusion that horizontal transmission rapidly erodes extra-genomic associations is equivalent to the conclusion that recombination rapidly erodes associations between genes within a genome. The conclusion is correct in the absence of population structure or selection. However, population structure can maintain spatial associations between host and symbiote traits, and non-additive selection (interspecific epistasis) can generate covariances between host and symbiote genotypes. These results can also be applied to cultural or other non-genetic traits. This work contributes to a growing consensus that genomic, symbiotic, and gene-culture evolution can be analyzed under a common theoretical framework. In terms of coevolutionary potential, symbiotes can be viewed as lying on a continuum between the intimacy of genes and the indifference of casually co-occurring species.

Speed of invasion of an expanding population by a horizontally transmitted trait

Range expansions are a ubiquitous phenomenon, leading to the spatial spread of genetic, ecological, and cultural traits. While some of these traits are advantageous (and hence selected), other, nonselected traits can also spread by hitchhiking on the wave of population expansion. This requires us to understand how the spread of a hitchhiking trait is coupled to the wave of advance of its host population. Here, we use a system of coupled Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (F-KPP) equations to describe the spread of a horizontally transmitted hitchhiking trait within a population as it expands. We extend F-KPP wave theory to the system of coupled equations to predict how the hitchhiking trait spreads as a wave within the expanding population. We show that the speed of this trait wave is controlled by an intricate coupling between the tip of the population and trait waves. Our analysis yields a new speed selection mechanism for coupled waves of advance and reveals the existence of previously unexpected speed transitions.

Synthesis between demic and cultural diffusion in the Neolithic transition in Europe

There is a long-standing controversy between two models of the Neolithic transition. The demic model assumes that the Neolithic range expansion was mainly due to the spread of populations, and the cultural model considers that it was essentially due to the spread of ideas. Here we integrate the demic and cultural models in a unified framework. We show that cultural diffusion explains ∼40% of the spread rate of the Neolithic transition in Europe, as implied by archaeological data. Thus, cultural diffusion cannot be neglected, but demic diffusion was the most important mechanism in this major historical process at the continental scale. This quantitative approach can be useful also in regional analysis, the description of Neolithic transitions in other continents, and models of many human spread phenomena.

Bayesian inference for a wave-front model of the neolithization of Europe

We consider a wave-front model for the spread of neolithic culture across Europe, and use Bayesian inference techniques to provide estimates for the parameters within this model, as constrained by radiocarbon data from southern and western Europe. Our wave-front model allows for both an isotropic background spread (incorporating the effects of local geography) and a localized anisotropic spread associated with major waterways. We introduce an innovative numerical scheme to track the wave front, and use Gaussian process emulators to further increase the efficiency of our model, thereby making Markov chain Monte Carlo methods practical. We allow for uncertainty in the fit of our model, and discuss the inferred distribution of the parameter specifying this uncertainty, along with the distributions of the parameters of our wave-front model. We subsequently use predictive distributions, taking account of parameter uncertainty, to identify radiocarbon sites which do not agree well with our model. These sites may warrant further archaeological study or motivate refinements to the model.

Reconstructing the origin and spread of horse domestication in the Eurasian steppe

Despite decades of research across multiple disciplines, the early history of horse domestication remains poorly understood. On the basis of current evidence from archaeology, mitochondrial DNA, and Y-chromosomal sequencing, a number of different domestication scenarios have been proposed, ranging from the spread of domestic horses out of a restricted primary area of domestication to the domestication of numerous distinct wild horse populations. In this paper, we reconstruct both the population genetic structure of the extinct wild progenitor of domestic horses, Equus ferus, and the origin and spread of horse domestication in the Eurasian steppes by fitting a spatially explicit stepping-stone model to genotype data from >300 horses sampled across northern Eurasia. We find strong evidence for an expansion of E. ferus out of eastern Eurasia about 160 kya, likely reflecting the colonization of Eurasia by this species. Our best-fitting scenario further suggests that horse domestication originated in the western part of the Eurasian steppe and that domestic herds were repeatedly restocked with local wild horses as they spread out of this area. By showing that horse domestication was initiated in the western Eurasian steppe and that the spread of domestic herds across Eurasia involved extensive introgression from the wild, the scenario of horse domestication proposed here unites evidence from archaeology, mitochondrial DNA, and Y-chromosomal DNA.

Information spreading and development of cultural centers

The historical interplay between societies is governed by many factors, including in particular the spreading of languages, religion, and other symbolic traits. Cultural development, in turn, is coupled to the emergence and maintenance of information spreading. Strong centralized cultures exist due to attention from their members, whose faithfulness in turn relies on the supply of information. Here we discuss a culture evolution model on a planar geometry that takes into account aspects of the feedback between information spreading and its maintenance. Features of the model are highlighted by comparing it to cultural spreading in ancient and medieval Europe, where it suggests in particular that long-lived centers should be located in geographically remote regions.

Modeling neolithic dispersal in central Europe: demographic implications

On the basis of new examination of ancient DNA and craniometric analyses, Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe has been recently explained as reflecting colonization or at least a major influx of near eastern farmers. Given the fact that Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe was very rapid and extended into a large area, colonization would have to be associated with high population growth and fertility rates of an expanding Neolithic population. We built three demographic models to test whether the growth and fertility rates of Neolithic farmers were high enough to allow them to colonize Central Europe without admixture with foragers. The principle of the models is based on stochastic population projections. Our results demonstrate that colonization is an unlikely explanation for the Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe, as the majority of fertility and growth rate estimates obtained in all three models are higher than levels expected in the early Neolithic population. On the basis of our models, we derived that colonization would be possible only if (1) more than 37% of women survived to mean age at childbearing, (2) Neolithic expansion in Central Europe lasted more than 150 years, and (3) the population of farmers grew in the entire settled area. These settings, however, represent very favorable demographic conditions that seem unlikely given current archaeological and demographic evidence. Therefore, our results support the view that Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe involved admixture of expanding farmers with local foragers. We estimate that the admixture contribution from foragers may have been between 55% and 72%.

Vertical cultural transmission effects on demic front propagation: theory and application to the Neolithic transition in Europe

It is shown that Lotka-Volterra interaction terms are not appropriate to describe vertical cultural transmission. Appropriate interaction terms are derived and used to compute the effect of vertical cultural transmission on demic front propagation. They are also applied to a specific example, the Neolithic transition in Europe. In this example, it is found that the effect of vertical cultural transmission can be important (about 30%). On the other hand, simple models based on differential equations can lead to large errors (above 50%). Further physical, biophysical, and cross-disciplinary applications are outlined.

Cultural traits as units of analysis

Cultural traits have long been used in anthropology as units of transmission that ostensibly reflect behavioural characteristics of the individuals or groups exhibiting the traits. After they are transmitted, cultural traits serve as units of replication in that they can be modified as part of an individual's cultural repertoire through processes such as recombination, loss or partial alteration within an individual's mind. Cultural traits are analogous to genes in that organisms replicate them, but they are also replicators in their own right. No one has ever seen a unit of transmission, either behavioural or genetic, although we can observe the effects of transmission. Fortunately, such units are manifest in artefacts, features and other components of the archaeological record, and they serve as proxies for studying the transmission (and modification) of cultural traits, provided there is analytical clarity over how to define and measure the units that underlie this inheritance process.

Stochastic model for population migration and the growth of human settlements during the Neolithic transition

We present a stochastic two-population model that describes the migration and growth of semisedentary foragers and sedentary farmers along a river valley during the Neolithic transition. The main idea is that random migration and transition from a sedentary to a foraging way of life, and backwards, is strongly coupled with the local crop production and associated degradation of land. We derive a nonlinear integral equation for the population density coupled with the equations for the density of soil nutrients and crop production. Our model provides a description of the formation of human settlements along the river valley. The numerical results show that the individual farmers have a tendency for aggregation and clustering. We show that the large-scale pattern is a transient phenomenon which eventually disappears due to land degradation.

The frequency of fitness peak shifts is increased at expanding range margins due to mutation surfing

Dynamic species' ranges, those that are either invasive or shifting in response to environmental change, are the focus of much recent interest in ecology, evolution, and genetics. Understanding how range expansions can shape evolutionary trajectories requires the consideration of nonneutral variability and genetic architecture, yet the majority of empirical and theoretical work to date has explored patterns of neutral variability. Here we use forward computer simulations of population growth, dispersal, and mutation to explore how range-shifting dynamics can influence evolution on rugged fitness landscapes. We employ a two-locus model, incorporating sign epistasis, and find that there is an increased likelihood of fitness peak shifts during a period of range expansion. Maladapted valley genotypes can accumulate at an expanding range front through a phenomenon called mutation surfing, which increases the likelihood that a mutation leading to a higher peak will occur. Our results indicate that most peak shifts occur close to the expanding front. We also demonstrate that periods of range shifting are especially important for peak shifting in species with narrow geographic distributions. Our results imply that trajectories on rugged fitness landscapes can be modified substantially when ranges are dynamic.

The hidden side of invasions: massive introgression by local genes

Despite hundreds of reports involving both plants and animals, the mechanisms underlying introgression remain obscure, even if some form of selection is frequently invoked. Introgression has repeatedly been reported in species that have recently colonized a new habitat, suggesting that demographic processes should be given more attention for understanding the mechanisms of introgression. Here we show by spatially explicit simulations that massive introgression of neutral genes takes place during the invasion of an occupied territory if interbreeding is not severely prevented between the invading and the local species. We also demonstrate that introgression occurs almost exclusively from the local to the invading species, especially for populations located far away from the source of the invasion, and this irrespective of the relative densities of the two species. This pattern is strongest at markers experiencing reduced gene flow, in keeping with the observation that organelle genes are often preferentially introgressed across species boundaries. A survey of the literature shows that a majority of published empirical studies of introgression during range expansions, in animals and in plants, follow the predictions of our model. Our results imply that speciation genes can be identified by comparing genomes of interfertile native and invading species pairs.