Electric and magnetic phenomena observed before the volcano-seismic activity in 2000 in the Izu Island Region, Japan

Geomagnetic Disturbances and Pulse Amplitude Anomalies Preceding M > 6 Earthquakes from 2021 to 2022 in Sichuan-Yunnan, China

Compelling evidence has shown that geomagnetic disturbances in vertical intensity polarization before great earthquakes are promising precursors across diverse rupture conditions. However, the geomagnetic vertical intensity polarization method uses the spectrum of smooth signals, and the anomalous waveforms of seismic electromagnetic radiation, which are basically nonstationary, have not been adequately considered. By combining pulse amplitude analysis and an experimental study of the cumulative frequency of anomalies, we found that the pulse amplitudes before the 2022 Luding M6.8 earthquake show characteristics of multiple synchronous anomalies, with the highest (or higher) values occurring during the analyzed period. Similar synchronous anomalies were observed before the 2021 Yangbi M6.4 earthquake, the 2022 Lushan M6.1 earthquake and the 2022 Malcolm M6.0 earthquake, and these anomalies indicate migration from the periphery toward the epicenters over time. The synchronous changes are in line with the recognition of previous geomagnetic anomalies with characteristics of high values before an earthquake and gradual recovery after the earthquake. Our study suggests that the pulse amplitude is effective for extracting anomalies in geomagnetic vertical intensity polarization, especially in the presence of nonstationary signals when utilizing observations from multiple station arrays. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating pulse amplitude analysis into earthquake prediction research on geomagnetic disturbances.

Opera 2015 Project: Accurate Measurement Equipment for Earthquake Electromagnetic Emissions and Radio Seismic Indicator

Electromagnetic emissions from earthquakes are known as precursors and are of considerable importance for the purpose of early alarms. The propagation of low-frequency waves is favored, and the range between tens of mHz to tens of Hz has been heavily investigated in the last thirty years. This work describes the self-financed Opera 2015 project that initially consisted of six monitoring stations over Italy, equipped with electric and magnetic field sensors, among others. Insight of the designed antennas and low-noise electronic amplifiers provides both characterization of performance (similar to the best commercial products) and the elements to replicate the design for our own independent studies. Measured signals through data acquisition systems were then processed for spectral analysis and are available on the Opera 2015 website. Data provided by other world-known research institutes have also been considered for comparison. The work provides examples of processing methods and results representation, identifying many exogenous noise contributions of natural or human-made origin. The study of the results occurred for some years and led us to think that reliable precursors are confined to a short area around the earthquake due to the significant attenuation and the effect of overlapping noise sources. To this aim, a magnitude-distance indicator was developed to classify the detectability of the EQ events observed during 2015 and compared this with some other known earthquake events documented in the scientific literature.

Critical Dynamics in Stratospheric Potential Energy Variations Prior to Significant (M > 6.7) Earthquakes

Lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) is studied through various physical or chemical quantities, obtained from different sources, which are observables of the involved complex processes. LAIC has been proposed to be achieved through three major channels: the chemical, the acoustic, and the electromagnetic. Accumulated evidence supporting the acoustic channel hypothesis has been published, while atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) play a key role in LAIC as the leading mechanism for the transmission of energy from the lower atmosphere to the stratosphere and mesosphere, associated with atmospheric disturbances observed prior to strong earthquakes (EQs). The seismogenic AGW is the result of temperature disturbances, usually studied through stratospheric potential energy (EP). In this work, we examined 11 cases of significant EQs (M > 6.7) that occurred during the last 10 years at different geographic areas by analyzing the temperature profile at the wider location of each one of the examined EQs. The “Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry” (SABER) instrument, part of the “Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics” (TIMED) satellite, data were employed to compute the potential energy (EP) of the AGW. Using the temperature profile, we first calculated EP and determined the altitudes’ range for which prominent pre-seismic disturbances were observed. Subsequently, the EP time series at specific altitudes, within the determined “disturbed” range, were for the first time analyzed using the criticality analysis method termed the “natural time” (NT) method in order to find any evidence of an approach to a critical state (during a phase transition from a symmetric phase to a low symmetry phase) prior to the EQ occurrence. Our results show criticality indications in the fluctuation of EP a few days (1 to 15 days) prior to the examined EQs, except from one case. In our study, we also examined all of the temperature-related extreme phenomena that have occurred near the examined geographic areas, in order to take into account any possible non-seismic influence on the obtained results.

Natural Time Analysis of Global Seismicity

Natural time analysis enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, which is just the variance of natural time χ, κ1=⟨χ2⟩−⟨χ⟩2. During the last years, there has been significant progress in the natural time analysis of seismicity. Milestones in this progress are the identification of clearly distiguishable minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter κ1 of seismicity both in the regional and global scale, the emergence of an interrelation between the time correlations of the earthquake (EQ) magnitude time series and these minima, and the introduction by Turcotte, Rundle and coworkers of EQ nowcasting. Here, we apply all these recent advances in the global seismicity by employing the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. We show that the combination of the above three milestones may provide useful precursory information for the time of occurrence and epicenter location of strong EQs with M≥8.5 in GCMT. This can be achieved with high statistical significance (p-values of the order of 10−5), while the epicentral areas lie within a region covering only 4% of that investigated.

Order Parameter and Entropy of Seismicity in Natural Time before Major Earthquakes: Recent Results

A lot of work in geosciences has been completed during the last decade on the analysis in the new concept of time, termed natural time, introduced in 2001. The main advances are presented, including, among others, the following: First, the direct experimental verification of the interconnection between a Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity and seismicity, i.e., the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity exhibit a clearly detectable minimum when an SES activity starts. These two phenomena are also linked closely in space. Second, the identification of the epicentral area and the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake (EQ) by means of the order parameter of seismicity and the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal as well as the extrema of their fluctuations. An indicative example is the M9 Tohoku EQ in Japan on 11 March 2011. Third, to answer the crucial question—when a magnitude 7 class EQ occurs—whether it is a foreshock or a mainshock. This can be answered by means of the key quantities already mentioned, i.e., the order parameter of seismicity and the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal along with their fluctuations. The explanation of the experimental findings identified before major EQs is given in a unified way on the basis of a physical model already proposed in the 1980s.

Detection of Geomagnetic Signals as Precursors to Some Earthquakes in China

Extracting weak seismic-magnetic signals from strong electromagnetic backgrounds has always been an important part of seismic-electromagnetic research. Based on the data of D/H/Z components measured through a three-axis ring-core-type fluxgate magnetometer in GLM (Geermu), JYG (Jiayuguan), and KSH (Kashi) observatories, we analyzed geomagnetic signals as precursors to some earthquakes in China using the polarization method. The most effective main frequency of seismic-electromagnetic emission was determined according to the skin effect. The results showed that only 5 out of 37 earthquakes were found to have probable signals of seismomagnetic anomalies before them. Further research revealed that the significant enhancements of polarization ratios of YZH and YZG (YZH, the spectral power ratio of Z to H and YZG, the spectral power ratio of Z to G) occurred five days prior to the Jinta earthquake (Ms5.4) and continued for about two months. The polarization ratio of YZH reached an abnormally high value about one month before some earthquakes (Ms7.4, Ms6.7, Ms6.7) near the KSH station and lasted for about one week to half a month, then returned to the normal value. Similarly, some enhancements of polarization ratios of YZH and YZG occurred two months before the Haixi earthquake (Ms5.0) and lasted for about one month. Analysis results showed that the enhancements prior to earthquake events may be closely related to the Jinta earthquake and a series of earthquakes near the KSH station; however, the high value of YZH and YZG in GLM station had nothing to do with the Haixi earthquake.

Statistical and Criticality Analysis of the Lower Ionosphere Prior to the 30 October 2020 Samos (Greece) Earthquake (M6.9), Based on VLF Electromagnetic Propagation Data as Recorded by a New VLF/LF Receiver Installed in Athens (Greece)

In this work we present the statistical and criticality analysis of the very low frequency (VLF) sub-ionospheric propagation data recorded by a VLF/LF radio receiver which has recently been established at the University of West Attica in Athens (Greece). We investigate a very recent, strong (M6.9), and shallow earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 30 October 2020, very close to the northern coast of the island of Samos (Greece). We focus on the reception data from two VLF transmitters, located in Turkey and Israel, on the basis that the EQ’s epicenter was located within or very close to the 5th Fresnel zone, respectively, of the corresponding sub-ionospheric propagation path. Firstly, we employed in our study the conventional analyses known as the nighttime fluctuation method (NFM) and the terminator time method (TTM), aiming to reveal any statistical anomalies prior to the EQ’s occurrence. These analyses revealed statistical anomalies in the studied sub-ionospheric propagation paths within ~2 weeks and a few days before the EQ’s occurrence. Secondly, we performed criticality analysis using two well-established complex systems’ time series analysis methods—the natural time (NT) analysis method, and the method of critical fluctuations (MCF). The NT analysis method was applied to the VLF propagation quantities of the NFM, revealing criticality indications over a period of ~2 weeks prior to the Samos EQ, whereas MCF was applied to the raw receiver amplitude data, uncovering the time excerpts of the analyzed time series that present criticality which were closest before the Samos EQ. Interestingly, power-law indications were also found shortly after the EQ’s occurrence. However, it is shown that these do not correspond to criticality related to EQ preparation processes. Finally, it is noted that no other complex space-sourced or geophysical phenomenon that could disturb the lower ionosphere did occur during the studied time period or close after, corroborating the view that our results prior to the Samos EQ are likely related to this mainshock.

Assessing the Potential Earthquake Precursory Information in ULF Magnetic Data Recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000-2010: Distance and Magnitude Dependences

In order to clarify ultra-low-frequency (ULF) seismomagnetic phenomena, a sensitive geomagnetic network was installed in Kanto, Japan since 2000. In previous studies, we have verified the correlation between ULF magnetic anomalies and local sizeable earthquakes. In this study, we use Molchan's error diagram to evaluate the potential earthquake precursory information in the magnetic data recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000-2010. We introduce the probability gain (PG') and the probability difference (D') to quantify the forecasting performance and to explore the optimal prediction parameters for a given ULF magnetic station. The results show that the earthquake predictions based on magnetic anomalies are significantly better than random guesses, indicating the magnetic data contain potential useful precursory information. Further investigations suggest that the prediction performance depends on the choices of the distance (R) and size of the target earthquake events (Es). Optimal R and Es are about (100 km, 10^8.75) and (180 km, 10^8.75) for Seikoshi (SKS) station in Izu and Kiyosumi (KYS) station in Boso, respectively.

Natural Time Analysis: The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of the Order Parameter Fluctuations Minima Preceding Major Earthquakes

It has been reported that major earthquakes are preceded by Seismic Electric Signals (SES). Observations show that in the natural time analysis of an earthquake (EQ) catalog, an SES activity starts when the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a minimum. Fifteen distinct minima—observed simultaneously at two different natural time scales and deeper than a certain threshold—are found on analyzing the seismicity of Japan from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the time of the M9 Tohoku EQ occurrence) 1 to 3 months before large EQs. Six (out of 15) of these minima preceded all shallow EQs of magnitude 7.6 or larger, while nine are followed by smaller EQs. The latter false positives can be excluded by a proper procedure (J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics 2014, 119, 9192–9206) that considers aspects of EQ networks based on similar activity patterns. These results are studied here by means of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) technique by focusing on the area under the ROC curve (AUC). If this area, which is currently considered an effective way to summarize the overall diagnostic accuracy of a test, has the value 1, it corresponds to a perfectly accurate test. Here, we find that the AUC is around 0.95 which is evaluated as outstanding.

On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis

Natural time analysis has led to the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity when considering earthquakes as critical phenomena. The study of the fluctuations of this order parameter has shown that its variability exhibits minima before strong earthquakes. In this paper, we evaluate the statistical significance of such minima by using the recent method of event coincidence analysis. Our study includes the variability minima identified before major earthquakes in Japan and Eastern Mediterranean as well as in global seismicity.

Identifying the Occurrence Time of the Deadly Mexico M8.2 Earthquake on 7 September 2017

It has been shown that some dynamic features hidden in the time series of complex systems can be unveiled if we analyze them in a time domain termed natural time. In this analysis, we can identify when a system approaches a critical point (dynamic phase transition). Here, based on natural time analysis, which enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, we discuss a procedure through which we could achieve the identification of the occurrence time of the M8.2 earthquake that occurred on 7 September 2017 in Mexico in Chiapas region, which is the largest magnitude event recorded in Mexico in more than a century. In particular, we first investigated the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in the entire Mexico and found that, during an almost 30-year period, i.e., from 1 January 1988 until the M8.2 earthquake occurrence, they were minimized around 27 July 2017. From this date, we started computing the variance of seismicity in Chiapas region and found that it approached the critical value 0.070 on 6 September 2017, almost one day before this M8.2 earthquake occurrence.

Study in Natural Time of Geoelectric Field and Seismicity Changes Preceding the Mw6.8 Earthquake on 25 October 2018 in Greece

A strong earthquake of magnitude M w 6.8 struck Western Greece on 25 October 2018 with an epicenter at 37.515 ∘ N 20.564 ∘ E. It was preceded by an anomalous geolectric signal that was recorded on 2 October 2018 at a measuring station 70 km away from the epicenter. Upon analyzing this signal in natural time, we find that it conforms to the conditions suggested for its identification as precursory Seismic Electric Signal (SES) activity. Notably, the observed lead time of 23 days lies within the range of values that has been very recently identified as being statistically significant for the precursory variations of the electric field of the Earth. Moreover, the analysis in natural time of the seismicity subsequent to the SES activity in the area candidate to suffer this strong earthquake reveals that the criticality conditions were obeyed early in the morning of 18 October 2018, i.e., almost a week before the strong earthquake occurrence, in agreement with earlier findings. Finally, when employing the recent method of nowcasting earthquakes, which is based on natural time, we find an earthquake potential score around 80%.

Statistical Significance of Earth's Electric and Magnetic Field Variations Preceding Earthquakes in Greece and Japan Revisited

By analyzing the seismicity in a new time domain, termed natural time, we recently found that the change of the entropy under time reversal (Physica A2018, 506, 625–634) and the relevant complexity measures (Entropy2018, 20, 477) exhibit pronounced variations before the occurrence of the M8.2 earthquake in Mexico on 7 September 2017. Here, the statistical significance of precursory phenomena associated with other physical properties and in particular the anomalous variations observed in the Earth’s electric and magnetic fields before earthquakes in different regions of the world and in particular in Greece since 1980s and Japan during 2001–2010 are revisited (the latter, i.e., the magnetic field variations are alternatively termed ultra low frequency (ULF) seismo-magnetic phenomena). Along these lines we employ modern statistical tools like the event coincidence analysis and the receiver operating characteristics technique. We find that these precursory variations are far beyond chance and in addition their lead times fully agree with the experimental findings in Greece since the 1980s.

Micro-scale, mid-scale, and macro-scale in global seismicity identified by empirical mode decomposition and their multifractal characteristics

The magnitude time-series of the global seismicity is analyzed by the empirical mode decomposition giving rise to 14 intrinsic mode functions (IMF) and a trend. Using Hurst analysis one can identify three different sums of these IMFs and the trend which exhibit distinct multifractal behaviour and correspond to micro-, mid- and macro-scales. Their multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis reveals that the micro-scale time-series exhibits anticorrelated behaviour in contrast to the mid-scale one which is long-range correlated. Concerning the mid-scale one, in the range of 30 to 300 consecutive events the maximum entropy method power spectra indicates that it exhibits an 1/f^α behaviour with α close to 1/3 which is compatible with the long-range correlations identified by detrended fluctuation analysis during periods of stationary seismicity. The results have been also verified to hold regionally for the earthquakes in Japan and shed light on the significance of the mid-scale of 30 to 300 events in the natural time analysis of global (and regional) seismicity. It is shown that when using the mid-scale time-series only, we can obtain results similar to those obtained by the natural time analysis of global seismicity when focusing on the prediction of earthquakes with M ≥ 8.4.

Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity

It has been recently shown [N. V. Sarlis, Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011) and N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance κ1 of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity. Here, we study the fluctuations of this order parameter using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for a magnitude threshold Mthres = 5.0 and focus on its behavior before major earthquakes. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [N. V. Sarlis et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 13734 (2013)] that similar minima of the seismicity order parameter fluctuations had preceded all major shallow earthquakes in Japan. Moreover, on the basis of these minima a statistically significant binary prediction method for earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4 with hit rate 100% and false alarm rate 6.67% is suggested.

On earthquake prediction in Japan

Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author's view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology - on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors.

On the recent seismic activity in North-Eastern Aegean Sea including the M(w)5.8 earthquake on 8 January 2013

In the last week of November 2012, we announced that a strong electrotelluric disturbance, which we judged to be a Seismic Electric Signal (SES) activity, was recorded at station Assiros located in Northern Greece. This disturbance was actually followed by an Mw5.8 earthquake on 8 January 2013 in North-Eastern Aegean Sea. Here we show that, by analyzing this SES activity and employing the natural time analysis of subsequent seismicity, we estimated the epicentral location, magnitude and occurrence time which are reasonably compatible with those of the Mw5.8 event.

Preseismic anomalous telluric current signals observed in Kozu-shima Island, Japan

Monitoring of telluric current, which is practically a synonym for geoelectric potential difference, was conducted on Kozu-shima Island about 170 km south of Tokyo from May 14, 1997 to June 25, 2000. During the monitoring period, 19 anomalous telluric current changes (ATCs) were observed. Their possible correlation with nearby earthquakes was statistically examined by assuming various lead times for different ranges of magnitude and focal distance. The best correlation may be obtained for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 3.0 occurring within 20 km of focal distance. There were 23 such earthquakes, of which 11 were preceded by ATCs within 30 d. Of these 11 earthquakes, preceding ATCs of 5 and 6 were positive and negative polarities of telluric current, respectively. Their epicenters were spatially well clustered in the east and west of the island. These facts were clearly beyond those expected by chance and led to a simple speculative model.

Behavioral change related to Wenchuan devastating earthquake in mice

It has been suggested that some animals are much more capable of perceiving certain kinds of geophysical stimuli which may precede earthquakes than humans, but the anecdotal phenomena or stories about unusual animal behaviors prior to an earthquake should be interpreted with objective data. During the Wenchuan magnitude 8.0 earthquake that happened in Wenchuan county (31.0 degrees north latitude, 103.4 degrees east longitude) of Sichuan province, China, on May 12, 2008, eight mice were monitored for locomotor activity and circadian rhythm in constant darkness with temperature 22-24 degrees C and humidity 55-65% for 38 days. The ongoing monitoring of locomotor activity of mice in our laboratory made it possible to design a posteriori study investigating whether the earthquake was associated with any change in animal behavior. Based on analyzing the recorded data with single cosinor, we found that the locomotor activity dramatically decreased in six of these eight mice on day 3 before the earthquake, and the circadian rhythm of their locomotor activity was no longer detected. The behavioral change lasted for 6 days before the locomotor activity returned to its original state. Analyses of concurrent geomagnetic data showed a higher total intensity during the span when the circadian rhythm in locomotor activity weakened. These results indicated that the behaviors, including circadian rhythm and activity, in these mice indeed changed prior to the earthquake, and the behavioral change might be associated with a change of geomagnetic intensity.

Subterranean electrical structure of Kozu-shima volcanic island, Japan

Following the electric current injection experiment carried out in 2009, a VLF-MT (Very Low Frequency Magnetotelluric) survey has been conducted in Kozu-shima Island to obtain further information on the subterranean electrical structure that might help understanding the results of our monitoring of geoelectric potentials. A number of VAN-type pre-seismic geoelectric potential anomalies were observed in 1997-2000, even showing a remarkable "Selectivity". However, similar pre-seismic anomalies were not observed during the Izu-Island volcano-seismic swarm 2000. All these observations would require extremely high degree of heterogeneity in the subterranean electrical structure of the volcanic island and its possible time changes. Several correlations between the results of this survey and the volcanic geology of the island and ground water distribution were found. Further investigation is needed for a complete explanation of the observed phenomena.

Selectivity of seismic electric signal (SES) of the 2000 Izu earthquake swarm: a 3D FEM numerical simulation model

Although seismic electric signal (SES) has been used for short-term prediction of earthquakes, selectivity of SES still remains as one of the mysterious features. As a case study, we made a numerical simulation based on a 3D finite element method (FEM) on the selectivity of SES observed in the case of the 2000 Izu earthquake swarm. Our numerical results indicated that the existence of conductive channel under Niijima island could explain the reported SES selectivity.

Detrended fluctuation analysis of the magnetic and electric field variations that precede rupture

Magnetic field variations are detected before rupture in the form of "spikes" of alternating sign. The distinction of these spikes from random noise is of major practical importance since it is easier to conduct magnetic field measurements than electric field ones. Applying detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), these spikes look to be random at short time lags. On the other hand, long-range correlations prevail at time lags larger than the average time interval between consecutive spikes with a scaling exponent alpha around 0.9. In addition, DFA is applied to recent preseismic electric field variations in long duration (several hours to a couple of days) and reveals a scale invariant feature with an exponent alpha approximately 1 over all scales available (around five orders of magnitude).

Independent component analysis of geoelectric field data in the northern Nagano, Japan

Simultaneous anomalous change of geoelectric field was observed on January 17, 1999 at three far-distant stations in Nagano Prefecture, Japan. Eleven days after the anomalous change, an earthquake swarm with a M4.8 main shock started at a location within the triangle formed by the three stations. This change was rectangular in shape like the VAN-type anomalous change in Greece. The anomaly could be detected because it occurred at midnight when the noise level was low. In fact, there were a few M4-class earthquakes in the area for which no preceding anomalous electric changes were observed, perhaps because the changes occurred during the noisy daytime. In this paper, we examine if it is possible to extract the signal with the size of the anomalous change on January 17, 1999 from the noisy daytime data by Independent Component Analysis. For this purpose, a simulated noise was embedded in the real daytime data which were highly influenced by not only artificial noise but also by geomagnetic disturbances and rainfall. Even when the influence of geomagnetic disturbance or rainfall was large, the anomalous change was clearly recognized at least at two stations in all cases.

Heterogeneous electrical structure of Kozu-shima volcanic island, Japan

Nearly twenty anomalous geoelectric field changes were observed before earthquakes at Kozu-shima Island, Japan, from 1997 to 2000. In order to help locating the current sources of the observed anomalous changes, a bipole-dipole resistivity survey was conducted. From the resistivity survey, including current injection into the ground, it was found that various features of the anomalous changes were systematically different from those of changes caused by artificial sources and induction of geomagnetic disturbances. Moreover, it is suspected that the currents of anomalous changes were generated not near the ground surface but deep under the ground.

Investigation of seismicity after the initiation of a Seismic Electric Signal activity until the main shock

The behavior of seismicity in the area candidate to suffer a main shock is investigated after the observation of the Seismic Electric Signal activity until the impending main shock. This is based on the view that the occurrence of earthquakes is a critical phenomenon to which statistical dynamics may be applied. In the present work, analysing the time series of small earthquakes, the concept of natural time chi was used and the results revealed that the approach to criticality itself can be manifested by the probability density function (PDF) of kappa(1) calculated over an appropriate statistical ensemble. Here, kappa(1) is the variance kappa(1)(=<chi(2)>-<chi>(2)) resulting from the power spectrum of a function defined as Phi(omega)= summation operator(k=1)(N) p(k) exp(iomegachi(k)), where p(k) is the normalized energy of the k-th small earthquake and omega the natural frequency. This PDF exhibits a maximum at kappa(1) asymptotically equal to 0.070 a few days before the main shock. Examples are presented, referring to the magnitude 6 approximately 7 class earthquakes that occurred in Greece.

Investigation of seismicity after the initiation of a Seismic Electric Signal activity until the main shock

The behavior of seismicity in the area candidate to suffer a main shock is investigated after the observation of the Seismic Electric Signal activity until the impending main shock. This is based on the view that the occurrence of earthquakes is a critical phenomenon to which statistical dynamics may be applied. In the present work, analysing the time series of small earthquakes, the concept of natural time chi was used and the results revealed that the approach to criticality itself can be manifested by the probability density function (PDF) of kappa(1) calculated over an appropriate statistical ensemble. Here, kappa(1) is the variance kappa(1)(=-(2)) resulting from the power spectrum of a function defined as Phi(omega)= summation operator(k=1)(N) p(k) exp(iomegachi(k)), where p(k) is the normalized energy of the k-th small earthquake and omega the natural frequency. This PDF exhibits a maximum at kappa(1) asymptotically equal to 0.070 a few days before the main shock. Examples are presented, referring to the magnitude 6 approximately 7 class earthquakes that occurred in Greece.

Natural entropy fluctuations discriminate similar-looking electric signals emitted from systems of different dynamics

Complexity measures are introduced that quantify the change of the natural entropy fluctuations at different length scales in time series emitted from systems operating far from equilibrium. They identify impending sudden cardiac death (SD) by analyzing 15 min electrocardiograms, and comparing to those of truly healthy humans (H). These measures seem to be complementary to the ones suggested recently [Phys. Rev. E 70, 011106 (2004)]] and altogether enable the classification of individuals into three categories: H, heart disease patients, and SD. All the SD individuals, who exhibit critical dynamics, result in a common behavior.

Electric fields that "arrive" before the time derivative of the magnetic field prior to major earthquakes

The low frequency electric signals (emitted from the focal area when the stress reaches a critical value) that precede major earthquakes, are recorded at distances approximately 100 km being accompanied by magnetic field variations. The electric field "arrives" 1 to 2 s before the time derivative of the horizontal magnetic field. An explanation, which is still awaiting, should consider, beyond criticality, the large spatial scale as well as that the transmission of the electromagnetic fields (through an inhomogeneous weakly conductive medium like the Earth) obeys diffusion type equations.

Attempt to distinguish electric signals of a dichotomous nature

Three types of electric signals were analyzed: Ion current fluctuations in membrane channels (ICFMC), Seismic electric signals activities (SES), and "artificial" noises (AN). The wavelet transform, when applied to the conventional time domain, does not allow a classification of these signals, but does so in the "natural" time domain. A classification also becomes possible, if we study <chi(q)>-<chi>(q) versus q, where chi stands for the "natural" time. For q values approximately between 1 and 2 the signals are classified and ICFMC lies between the other two types. For q=1, the "entropy" S identical with <chilnchi>-<chi>ln<chi> of ICFMC almost equals that of a "uniform" distribution, while the AN and SES have larger and smaller S values, respectively. The recent [P. Varotsos, N. Sarlis, and E. Skordas, Phys. Rev. E 67, 021109 (2003)] finding that, in short time scales, both SES and AN (which are shown to be non-Markovian) result in comparable detrended fluctuation analysis exponents alpha in (1.0,1.5) is revisited. Even a Markovian dichotomous time series, in short time scales, leads to similar alpha exponents.

Long-range correlations in the electric signals that precede rupture: further investigations

The correlations within the time series of the seismic electric signal (SES) activities have been studied in a previous paper [P. Varotsos, N. Sarlis, and E. Skordas, Phys. Rev. E 66, 011902 (2002)]. Here, we analyze the time series of successive high- and low-level states' durations. The existence of correlation between the states is investigated by means of Hurst and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The multifractal DFA (MF-DFA) is also employed. The results point to a stronger correlation, and hence longer memory, in the series of the high-level states. Furthermore, an analysis in the "natural" time domain reveals that certain power spectrum characteristics seem to distinguish SES activities from "artificial" (man-made) electric noises. More precisely, for natural frequencies 0<phi<0.5, the curves of the SES activities and artificial noises lie above and below, respectively, that of the "uniform" distribution (UD). A classification of these two types of electric signals (SES activities, artificial noises), cannot be achieved on the basis of the values of the power-law exponents alone, if the Hurst analysis, DFA, and MF-DFA are applied to the original time series. The latter two methods, however, seem to allow a distinction between the SES activities and artificial noises when treating them (not in conventional the time frame, but) in the natural time domain. To further test the techniques, a time series produced by another system was examined. We chose a signal of ion current fluctuations in membrane channels (ICFMCs). The following conclusions, among others, have been obtained: First, the power spectrum analysis in the natural time domain shows that the ICFMC curve almost coincides (in the range 0<phi<0.5) with that of the UD, and hence ICFMC lies just in the boundary between the SES activities and artificial noises. Second, MF-DFA indicates monofractality for the ICFMCs with a generalized Hurst exponent h=0.84+/-0.03 in the range 7-70 ms.