Scaling laws describe memories of host-pathogen riposte in the HIV population

Kinetic coevolutionary models predict the temporal emergence of HIV-1 resistance mutations under drug selection pressure

Drug resistance in HIV type 1 (HIV-1) is a pervasive problem that affects the lives of millions of people worldwide. Although records of drug-resistant mutations (DRMs) have been extensively tabulated within public repositories, our understanding of the evolutionary kinetics of DRMs and how they evolve together remains limited. Epistasis, the interaction between a DRM and other residues in HIV-1 protein sequences, is key to the temporal evolution of drug resistance. We use a Potts sequence-covariation statistical-energy model of HIV-1 protein fitness under drug selection pressure, which captures epistatic interactions between all positions, combined with kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations of sequence evolutionary trajectories, to explore the acquisition of DRMs as they arise in an ensemble of drug-naive patient protein sequences. We follow the time course of 52 DRMs in the enzymes protease, RT, and integrase, the primary targets of antiretroviral therapy. The rates at which DRMs emerge are highly correlated with their observed acquisition rates reported in the literature when drug pressure is applied. This result highlights the central role of epistasis in determining the kinetics governing DRM emergence. Whereas rapidly acquired DRMs begin to accumulate as soon as drug pressure is applied, slowly acquired DRMs are contingent on accessory mutations that appear only after prolonged drug pressure. We provide a foundation for using computational methods to determine the temporal evolution of drug resistance using Potts statistical potentials, which can be used to gain mechanistic insights into drug resistance pathways in HIV-1 and other infectious agents.

HCV E1 influences the fitness landscape of E2 and may enhance escape from E2-specific antibodies

The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope glycoprotein E1 forms a non-covalent heterodimer with E2, the main target of neutralizing antibodies. How E1-E2 interactions influence viral fitness and contribute to resistance to E2-specific antibodies remain largely unknown. We investigate this problem using a combination of fitness landscape and evolutionary modeling. Our analysis indicates that E1 and E2 proteins collectively mediate viral fitness and suggests that fitness-compensating E1 mutations may accelerate escape from E2-targeting antibodies. Our analysis also identifies a set of E2-specific human monoclonal antibodies that are predicted to be especially resilient to escape via genetic variation in both E1 and E2, providing directions for robust HCV vaccine development.

Contingency and Entrenchment of Drug-Resistance Mutations in HIV Viral Proteins

The ability of HIV-1 to rapidly mutate leads to antiretroviral therapy (ART) failure among infected patients. Drug-resistance mutations (DRMs), which cause a fitness penalty to intrinsic viral fitness, are compensated by accessory mutations with favorable epistatic interactions which cause an evolutionary trapping effect, but the kinetics of this overall process has not been well characterized. Here, using a Potts Hamiltonian model describing epistasis combined with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of evolutionary trajectories, we explore how epistasis modulates the evolutionary dynamics of HIV DRMs. We show how the occurrence of a drug-resistance mutation is contingent on favorable epistatic interactions with many other residues of the sequence background and that subsequent mutations entrench DRMs. We measure the time-autocorrelation of fluctuations in the likelihood of DRMs due to epistatic coupling with the sequence background, which reveals the presence of two evolutionary processes controlling DRM kinetics with two distinct time scales. Further analysis of waiting times for the evolutionary trapping effect to reverse reveals that the sequences which entrench (trap) a DRM are responsible for the slower time scale. We also quantify the overall strength of epistatic effects on the evolutionary kinetics for different mutations and show these are much larger for DRM positions than polymorphic positions, and we also show that trapping of a DRM is often caused by the collective effect of many accessory mutations, rather than a few strongly coupled ones, suggesting the importance of multiresidue sequence variations in HIV evolution. The analysis presented here provides a framework to explore the kinetic pathways through which viral proteins like HIV evolve under drug-selection pressure.

Limits to detecting epistasis in the fitness landscape of HIV

The rapid evolution of HIV is constrained by interactions between mutations which affect viral fitness. In this work, we explore the role of epistasis in determining the mutational fitness landscape of HIV for multiple drug target proteins, including Protease, Reverse Transcriptase, and Integrase. Epistatic interactions between residues modulate the mutation patterns involved in drug resistance, with unambiguous signatures of epistasis best seen in the comparison of the Potts model predicted and experimental HIV sequence “prevalences” expressed as higher-order marginals (beyond triplets) of the sequence probability distribution. In contrast, experimental measures of fitness such as viral replicative capacities generally probe fitness effects of point mutations in a single background, providing weak evidence for epistasis in viral systems. The detectable effects of epistasis are obscured by higher evolutionary conservation at sites. While double mutant cycles in principle, provide one of the best ways to probe epistatic interactions experimentally without reference to a particular background, we show that the analysis is complicated by the small dynamic range of measurements. Overall, we show that global pairwise interaction Potts models are necessary for predicting the mutational landscape of viral proteins.

Evolutionary modeling reveals enhanced mutational flexibility of HCV subtype 1b compared with 1a

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-associated disease and liver cancer. Of the major HCV subtypes, patients infected with subtype 1b have been associated with having a higher risk of developing chronic infection and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, underlying reasons for this increased disease severity remain unknown. Here, we provide an evolutionary rationale, based on a comparative study of fitness landscape and in-host evolutionary models of the E2 glycoprotein of HCV subtypes 1a and 1b. Our analysis demonstrates that a higher chronicity rate of 1b may be attributed to lower fitness constraints, enabling 1b viruses to more easily escape antibody responses. More generally, our results suggest that differences in evolutionary constraints between HCV subtypes may be an important factor in mediating distinct disease outcomes. Our analysis also identifies antibodies that appear escape-resistant against both subtypes 1a and 1b, providing directions for designing HCV vaccines having cross-subtype protection.

Latent Dynamical Variables Produce Signatures of Spatiotemporal Criticality in Large Biological Systems

Understanding the activity of large populations of neurons is difficult due to the combinatorial complexity of possible cell-cell interactions. To reduce the complexity, coarse graining had been previously applied to experimental neural recordings, which showed over two decades of apparent scaling in free energy, activity variance, eigenvalue spectra, and correlation time, hinting that the mouse hippocampus operates in a critical regime. We model such data by simulating conditionally independent binary neurons coupled to a small number of long-timescale stochastic fields and then replicating the coarse-graining procedure and analysis. This reproduces the experimentally observed scalings, suggesting that they do not require fine-tuning of internal parameters, but will arise in any system, biological or not, where activity variables are coupled to latent dynamic stimuli. Parameter sweeps for our model suggest that emergence of scaling requires most of the cells in a population to couple to the latent stimuli, predicting that even the celebrated place cells must also respond to nonplace stimuli.

Episodic evolution of coadapted sets of amino acid sites in mitochondrial proteins

The rate of evolution differs between protein sites and changes with time. However, the link between these two phenomena remains poorly understood. Here, we design a phylogenetic approach for distinguishing pairs of amino acid sites that evolve concordantly, i.e., such that substitutions at one site trigger subsequent substitutions at the other; and also pairs of sites that evolve discordantly, so that substitutions at one site impede subsequent substitutions at the other. We distinguish groups of amino acid sites that undergo coordinated evolution and evolve discordantly from other such groups. In mitochondrion-encoded proteins of metazoans and fungi, we show that concordantly evolving sites are clustered in protein structures. By analysing the phylogenetic patterns of substitutions at concordantly and discordantly evolving site pairs, we find that concordant evolution has two distinct causes: epistatic interactions between amino acid substitutions and episodes of selection independently affecting substitutions at different sites. The rate of substitutions at concordantly evolving groups of protein sites changes in the course of evolution, indicating episodes of selection limited to some of the lineages. The phylogenetic positions of these changes are consistent between proteins, suggesting common selective forces underlying them.

The mode and rate of evolution of a protein site depends on the effect of its mutations on protein fitness. The fitness effect of a mutation itself can change in the course of evolution for at least two reasons. First, it can be modulated by substitutions occurring at other sites, a phenomenon called epistasis. Second, changes in selection can be non-epistatic, affecting sites independently of one another. Here, we analyse substitutions accumulated by the evolving lineages of the five proteins encoded by the mitochondrial genomes of thousands of species of metazoans and fungi. We show that substitutions at different amino acid sites occur in a coordinated fashion, and this coordination is caused both by epistasis and by episodes of selection affecting groups of sites. We partition each protein into several groups of concordantly evolving sites such that evolution of sites from different groups is discordant, and show that the proteins encoded by the mitochondrial genome consist of coevolving structural blocks. Some of these blocks have a clear functional specialization, e.g. are associated with interfaces between proteins composing respiratory complexes. Together, our results reveal a previously unrecognized complexity in the causes of variation in evolutionary rates between protein sites.

Deconvolving mutational patterns of poliovirus outbreaks reveals its intrinsic fitness landscape

Vaccination has essentially eradicated poliovirus. Yet, its mutation rate is higher than that of viruses like HIV, for which no effective vaccine exists. To investigate this, we infer a fitness model for the poliovirus viral protein 1 (vp1), which successfully predicts in vitro fitness measurements. This is achieved by first developing a probabilistic model for the prevalence of vp1 sequences that enables us to isolate and remove data that are subject to strong vaccine-derived biases. The intrinsic fitness constraints derived for vp1, a capsid protein subject to antibody responses, are compared with those of analogous HIV proteins. We find that vp1 evolution is subject to tighter constraints, limiting its ability to evade vaccine-induced immune responses. Our analysis also indicates that circulating poliovirus strains in unimmunized populations serve as a reservoir that can seed outbreaks in spatio-temporally localized sub-optimally immunized populations.

Poliovirus has a higher mutation rate than HIV, yet has been almost eradicated by vaccination while an effective vaccine against HIV does not exist. Here, the authors develop a fitness model for poliovirus viral protein 1 to show that it is subject to stringent evolutionary constraints that limit its ability to avoid vaccine-induced immune responses.

Inference of compressed Potts graphical models

We consider the problem of inferring a graphical Potts model on a population of variables. This inverse Potts problem generally involves the inference of a large number of parameters, often larger than the number of available data, and, hence, requires the introduction of regularization. We study here a double regularization scheme, in which the number of Potts states (colors) available to each variable is reduced and interaction networks are made sparse. To achieve the color compression, only Potts states with large empirical frequency (exceeding some threshold) are explicitly modeled on each site, while the others are grouped into a single state. We benchmark the performances of this mixed regularization approach, with two inference algorithms, adaptive cluster expansion (ACE) and pseudolikelihood maximization (PLM), on synthetic data obtained by sampling disordered Potts models on Erdős-Rényi random graphs. We show in particular that color compression does not affect the quality of reconstruction of the parameters corresponding to high-frequency symbols, while drastically reducing the number of the other parameters and thus the computational time. Our procedure is also applied to multisequence alignments of protein families, with similar results.

Coevolutionary Landscape of Kinase Family Proteins: Sequence Probabilities and Functional Motifs

The protein kinase catalytic domain is one of the most abundant domains across all branches of life. Although kinases share a common core function of phosphoryl-transfer, they also have wide functional diversity and play varied roles in cell signaling networks, and for this reason are implicated in a number of human diseases. This functional diversity is primarily achieved through sequence variation, and uncovering the sequence-function relationships for the kinase family is a major challenge. In this study we use a statistical inference technique inspired by statistical physics, which builds a coevolutionary "Potts" Hamiltonian model of sequence variation in a protein family. We show how this model has sufficient power to predict the probability of specific subsequences in the highly diverged kinase family, which we verify by comparing the model's predictions with experimental observations in the Uniprot database. We show that the pairwise (residue-residue) interaction terms of the statistical model are necessary and sufficient to capture higher-than-pairwise mutation patterns of natural kinase sequences. We observe that previously identified functional sets of residues have much stronger correlated interaction scores than are typical.

Learning the Formation Mechanism of Domain-Level Chromatin States with Epigenomics Data

Epigenetic modifications can extend over long genomic regions to form domain-level chromatin states that play critical roles in gene regulation. The molecular mechanism for the establishment and maintenance of these states is not fully understood and remains challenging to study with existing experimental techniques. Here, we took a data-driven approach and parameterized an information-theoretic model to infer the formation mechanism of domain-level chromatin states from genome-wide epigenetic modification profiles. This model reproduces statistical correlations among histone modifications and identifies well-known states. Importantly, it predicts drastically different mechanisms and kinetic pathways for the formation of euchromatin and heterochromatin. In particular, long, strong enhancer and promoter states grow gradually from short but stable regulatory elements via a multistep process. On the other hand, the formation of heterochromatin states is highly cooperative, and no intermediate states are found along the transition path. This cooperativity can arise from a chromatin looping-mediated spreading of histone methylation mark and supports collapsed, globular three-dimensional conformations rather than regular fibril structures for heterochromatin. We further validated these predictions using changes of epigenetic profiles along cell differentiation. Our study demonstrates that information-theoretic models can go beyond statistical analysis to derive insightful kinetic information that is otherwise difficult to access.

Computational design of hepatitis C virus immunogens from host-pathogen dynamics over empirical viral fitness landscapes

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) afflicts 170 million people and kills 700 000 annually. Vaccination offers the most realistic and cost effective hope of controlling this epidemic, but despite 25 years of research, no vaccine is available. A major obstacle is HCV's extreme genetic variability and rapid mutational escape from immune pressure. Coupling maximum entropy inference with population dynamics simulations, we have employed a computational approach to translate HCV sequence databases into empirical landscapes of viral fitness and simulate the intrahost evolution of the viral quasispecies over these landscapes. We explicitly model the coupled host-pathogen dynamics by combining agent-based models of viral mutation with stochastically-integrated coupled ordinary differential equations for the host immune response. We validate our model in predicting the mutational evolution of the HCV RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (protein NS5B) within seven individuals for whom longitudinal sequencing data is available. We then use our approach to perform exhaustive in silico evaluation of putative immunogen candidates to rationally design tailored vaccines to simultaneously cripple viral fitness and block mutational escape within two selected individuals. By systematically identifying a small number of promising vaccine candidates, our empirical fitness landscapes and host-pathogen dynamics simulator can guide and accelerate experimental vaccine design efforts.

A power law distribution of metabolite abundance levels in mice regardless of the time and spatial scale of analysis

Biomolecule abundance levels change with the environment and enable a living system to adapt to the new conditions. Although, the living system maintains at least some characteristics, e.g. homeostasis. One of the characteristics maintained by a living system is a power law distribution of biomolecule abundance levels. Previous studies have pointed to a universal characteristic of biochemical reaction networks, with data obtained from lysates of multiple cells. As a result, the spatial scale of the data related to the power law distribution of biomolecule abundance levels is not clear. In this study, we researched the scaling law of metabolites in mouse tissue with a spatial scale of quantification that was changed stepwise between a whole-tissue section and a single-point analysis (25 μm). As a result, metabolites in mouse tissues were found to follow the power law distribution independently of the spatial scale of analysis. Additionally, we tested the temporal changes by comparing data from younger and older mice. Both followed similar power law distributions, indicating that metabolite composition is not diversified by aging to disrupt the power law distribution. The power law distribution of metabolite abundance is thus a robust characteristic of a living system regardless of time and space.

Mapping mutational effects along the evolutionary landscape of HIV envelope

The immediate evolutionary space accessible to HIV is largely determined by how single amino acid mutations affect fitness. These mutational effects can shift as the virus evolves. However, the prevalence of such shifts in mutational effects remains unclear. Here, we quantify the effects on viral growth of all amino acid mutations to two HIV envelope (Env) proteins that differ at >100 residues. Most mutations similarly affect both Envs, but the amino acid preferences of a minority of sites have clearly shifted. These shifted sites usually prefer a specific amino acid in one Env, but tolerate many amino acids in the other. Surprisingly, shifts are only slightly enriched at sites that have substituted between the Envs—and many occur at residues that do not even contact substitutions. Therefore, long-range epistasis can unpredictably shift Env’s mutational tolerance during HIV evolution, although the amino acid preferences of most sites are conserved between moderately diverged viral strains.

The virus that causes AIDS, or HIV, has a protein called Env on its surface, which is essential for the virus to infect cells. Env can also be recognized by the immune system, which then targets the virus for destruction or blocks it from infecting cells. Unfortunately, Env evolves very quickly, which means that HIV can evade our defenses. However, there are limits to how much this protein can change, since it still needs to perform its essential role in helping viruses enter cells.

In the century since HIV first appeared in human populations, the virus has evolved considerably. There are now many HIV strains that infect people, and they bear Env proteins with substantially different sequences. However, it is not clear if these changes in sequence have resulted in Envs from distinct strains being able to tolerate different mutations.

To examine this question, Haddox et al. compared how the Envs from two strains of HIV react to modifications in their sequences. They created all possible individual mutations in the proteins, and the resulting collections of mutated viruses were then tested for their ability to infect cells in the laboratory.

Most mutations had similar effects in both Env proteins. This allowed Haddox et al. to identify portions of the protein that easily accommodate changes, and portions that must remain unchanged for viruses to remain infectious—at least in the laboratory. Some of these mutations are under different types of pressures when the virus faces the immune system, and those were identified using computational approaches.

However, some mutations were tolerated differently by the two Env proteins. Therefore, viral strains differ in how their Env proteins can evolve. The parts of Env that showed differences in mutational tolerance between the strains were not necessarily the parts that differ in sequence. This shows that changes in sequence in one part of the protein can modify how other portions evolve.

It remains to be determined whether changes in tolerance to mutations translate into differences in how the virus can escape immunity. This is an important question given that the rapid evolution of Env is a major obstacle to creating a vaccine for HIV.

Fitness landscape of the human immunodeficiency virus envelope protein that is targeted by antibodies

HIV is a highly mutable virus, and over 30 years after its discovery, a vaccine or cure is still not available. The isolation of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) from HIV-infected patients has led to renewed hope for a prophylactic vaccine capable of combating the scourge of HIV. A major challenge is the design of immunogens and vaccination protocols that can elicit bnAbs that target regions of the virus's spike proteins where the likelihood of mutational escape is low due to the high fitness cost of mutations. Related challenges include the choice of combinations of bnAbs for therapy. An accurate representation of viral fitness as a function of its protein sequences (a fitness landscape), with explicit accounting of the effects of coupling between mutations, could help address these challenges. We describe a computational approach that has allowed us to infer a fitness landscape for gp160, the HIV polyprotein that comprises the viral spike that is targeted by antibodies. We validate the inferred landscape through comparisons with experimental fitness measurements, and various other metrics. We show that an effective antibody that prevents immune escape must selectively bind to high escape cost residues that are surrounded by those where mutations incur a low fitness cost, motivating future applications of our landscape for immunogen design.

Power law tails in phylogenetic systems

Covariance analysis of protein sequence alignments uses coevolving pairs of sequence positions to predict features of protein structure and function. However, current methods ignore the phylogenetic relationships between sequences, potentially corrupting the identification of covarying positions. Here, we use random matrix theory to demonstrate the existence of a power law tail that distinguishes the spectrum of covariance caused by phylogeny from that caused by structural interactions. The power law is essentially independent of the phylogenetic tree topology, depending on just two parameters-the sequence length and the average branch length. We demonstrate that these power law tails are ubiquitous in the large protein sequence alignments used to predict contacts in 3D structure, as predicted by our theory. This suggests that to decouple phylogenetic effects from the interactions between sequence distal sites that control biological function, it is necessary to remove or down-weight the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix with largest eigenvalues. We confirm that truncating these eigenvectors improves contact prediction.

Rational design of vaccine targets and strategies for HIV: a crossroad of statistical physics, biology, and medicine

Vaccination has saved more lives than any other medical procedure. Pathogens have now evolved that have not succumbed to vaccination using the empirical paradigms pioneered by Pasteur and Jenner. Vaccine design strategies that are based on a mechanistic understanding of the pertinent immunology and virology are required to confront and eliminate these scourges. In this perspective, we describe just a few examples of work aimed to achieve this goal by bringing together approaches from statistical physics with biology and clinical research.

Adaptation in protein fitness landscapes is facilitated by indirect paths

The structure of fitness landscapes is critical for understanding adaptive protein evolution. Previous empirical studies on fitness landscapes were confined to either the neighborhood around the wild type sequence, involving mostly single and double mutants, or a combinatorially complete subgraph involving only two amino acids at each site. In reality, the dimensionality of protein sequence space is higher (20^L) and there may be higher-order interactions among more than two sites. Here we experimentally characterized the fitness landscape of four sites in protein GB1, containing 20⁴ = 160,000 variants. We found that while reciprocal sign epistasis blocked many direct paths of adaptation, such evolutionary traps could be circumvented by indirect paths through genotype space involving gain and subsequent loss of mutations. These indirect paths alleviate the constraint on adaptive protein evolution, suggesting that the heretofore neglected dimensions of sequence space may change our views on how proteins evolve.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16965.001

Proteins can evolve over time by changing their component parts, which are called amino acids. These changes usually happen one at a time and natural selection tends to preserve those changes that make the protein more efficient at its specific tasks, while discarding those that impair the protein’s activity. However the effect of each change depends on the protein as a whole, and so two changes that separately make the protein worse can make it much better if they occur together. This phenomenon is called epistasis and in some cases it can trap proteins in a sub-optimal form and prevent them from improving further.

Proteins are made from twenty different kinds of amino acid, and there are millions of different combinations of amino acids that could, in theory, make a protein of a given length. Studying protein evolution involves making variants of the same protein, each with just a few changes, and comparing how efficient, or “fit”, they are. Previous studies only measured the fitness of a few variants and showed that epistasis could block protein evolution by requiring the protein to lose some fitness before it could improve further. However, new techniques have now made it easier to study protein evolution by testing many more protein variants.

Wu, Dai et al. focused on four amino acids in part of a protein called GB1 and tested the efficiency of every possible combination of these four amino acids, a total of 160,000 (20⁴) variants. Contrary to expectations, the results suggested that the protein could evolve quickly to maximise fitness despite there being epistasis between the four amino acids. Overcoming epistasis typically involved making a change to one amino acid that paved the way for further changes while avoiding the need to lose fitness. The original change could then be reversed once the epistasis was overcome. The complexity of this solution means it can only be seen by studying a large number of protein variants that represent many alternative sequences of protein changes.

Wu, Dai et al. conclude that proteins are able to achieve a higher level of fitness through evolution by exploring a large number of changes. There are many possible changes for each protein and it is this variety that, despite epistasis, allows proteins to become naturally optimised for the tasks that they perform. While the full complexity of protein evolution cannot be explored at the moment, as technology advances it will become possible to study more protein variants. Such advances would therefore hopefully allow researchers to discover even more about the natural mechanisms of protein evolution.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16965.002

ACE: adaptive cluster expansion for maximum entropy graphical model inference

MOTIVATION

Graphical models are often employed to interpret patterns of correlations observed in data through a network of interactions between the variables. Recently, Ising/Potts models, also known as Markov random fields, have been productively applied to diverse problems in biology, including the prediction of structural contacts from protein sequence data and the description of neural activity patterns. However, inference of such models is a challenging computational problem that cannot be solved exactly. Here, we describe the adaptive cluster expansion (ACE) method to quickly and accurately infer Ising or Potts models based on correlation data. ACE avoids overfitting by constructing a sparse network of interactions sufficient to reproduce the observed correlation data within the statistical error expected due to finite sampling. When convergence of the ACE algorithm is slow, we combine it with a Boltzmann Machine Learning algorithm (BML). We illustrate this method on a variety of biological and artificial datasets and compare it to state-of-the-art approximate methods such as Gaussian and pseudo-likelihood inference.

RESULTS

We show that ACE accurately reproduces the true parameters of the underlying model when they are known, and yields accurate statistical descriptions of both biological and artificial data. Models inferred by ACE more accurately describe the statistics of the data, including both the constrained low-order correlations and unconstrained higher-order correlations, compared to those obtained by faster Gaussian and pseudo-likelihood methods. These alternative approaches can recover the structure of the interaction network but typically not the correct strength of interactions, resulting in less accurate generative models.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The ACE source code, user manual and tutorials with the example data and filtered correlations described herein are freely available on GitHub at https://github.com/johnbarton/ACE CONTACTS: jpbarton@mit.edu, cocco@lps.ens.frSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Relative rate and location of intra-host HIV evolution to evade cellular immunity are predictable

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves within infected persons to escape being destroyed by the host immune system, thereby preventing effective immune control of infection. Here, we combine methods from evolutionary dynamics and statistical physics to simulate in vivo HIV sequence evolution, predicting the relative rate of escape and the location of escape mutations in response to T-cell-mediated immune pressure in a cohort of 17 persons with acute HIV infection. Predicted and clinically observed times to escape immune responses agree well, and we show that the mutational pathways to escape depend on the viral sequence background due to epistatic interactions. The ability to predict escape pathways and the duration over which control is maintained by specific immune responses open the door to rational design of immunotherapeutic strategies that might enable long-term control of HIV infection. Our approach enables intra-host evolution of a human pathogen to be predicted in a probabilistic framework.