Forecasting innovations in science, technology, and education

Science maps for exploration, navigation, and reflection-A graphic approach to strategic thinking

The world of science is growing at an unprecedented speed with more and more scholarly papers produced each year. The scientific landscape is constantly changing as research specialties evolve, merge or become obsolete. It is difficult for researchers, research managers and the public alike to keep abreast with these changes and maintain a true and fair overview of the world of science. Such an overview is necessary to stimulate scientific progress, to maintain flexible and responsive research organizations, and to secure collaboration and knowledge exchange between different research specialties and the wider community. Although science mapping is applied to a wide range of scientific areas, examples of their practical use are sparse. This paper demonstrates how to use a topical, scientific reference maps to understand and navigate in dynamic research landscapes and how to utilize science maps to facilitate strategic thinking. In this study, the research domain of biology at Aarhus University serves as an example. All scientific papers authored by the current, permanent staff were extracted (6,830 in total). These papers were used to create a semantic cognitive map of the research field using a co-word analysis based on keywords and keyword phrases. A workflow was written in Python for easy and fast retrieval of information for topic maps (including tokens from keywords section and title) to generate intelligible research maps, and to visualize the distribution of topics (keywords), papers, journal categories, individual researchers and research groups on any scale. The resulting projections revealed new insights into the structure of the research community and made it possible to compare researchers or research groups to describe differences and similarities, to find scientific overlaps or gaps, and to understand how they relate and connect. Science mapping can be used for intended (top-down) as well as emergent (bottom-up) strategy development. The paper concludes that science maps provide alternative views of the intricate structures of science to supplement traditional bibliometric information. These insights may help strengthen strategic thinking and boost creativity and thus contribute to the progress of science.

Digital Scientist 2035—An Outlook on Innovation and Education

With the advent of the fourth industrial revolution accompanied by the Internet of Things, the implementation of smart technologies and digitalization already had a great impact in our society, especially when considering exponential innovation and human development. In this context, some types of employment have already been replaced or have been enhanced by the use of robots, human-machines interfaces and Artificial Intelligence systems. And there is likely more to come. If innovation can be viewed as a direct or indirect outcome of scientific research, which role will a scientist play in 2035? We developed a survey to investigate the opinions of scientists with respect to the possible future implementation of disruptive technologies, their feelings and approaches to digitalization, and particularly the impact of digital transformation on scientific education. In a futuristic scenario, we can imagine that scientists will be supported by technologies, carrying out numerous experiments, managing big datasets, producing accurate results, increasing communication, openness and collaboration among the worldwide scientific community, where ethics, regulations and social norms will always be observed. The new era of Digital Science is coming, in which humans will start to incorporate more disruptive and advanced technologies into their daily life; essential aspects for exponential innovation and development.

Advances in Flood Early Warning: Ensemble Forecast, Information Dissemination and Decision-Support Systems

Floods are usually highly destructive, which may cause enormous losses to lives and property. It is, therefore, important and necessary to develop effective flood early warning systems and disseminate the information to the public through various information sources, to prevent or at least mitigate the flood damages. For flood early warning, novel methods can be developed by taking advantage of the state-of-the-art techniques (e.g., ensemble forecast, numerical weather prediction, and service-oriented architecture) and data sources (e.g., social media), and such developments can offer new insights for modeling flood disasters, including facilitating more accurate forecasts, more efficient communication, and more timely evacuation. The present Special Issue aims to collect the latest methodological developments and applications in the field of flood early warning. More specifically, we collected a number of contributions dealing with: (1) an urban flash flood alert tool for megacities; (2) a copula-based bivariate flood risk assessment; and (3) an analytic hierarchy process approach to flash flood impact assessment.

Where is your field going? A machine learning approach to study the relative motion of the domains of physics

We propose an original approach to describe the scientific progress in a quantitative way. Using innovative Machine Learning techniques we create a vector representation for the PACS codes and we use them to represent the relative movements of the various domains of Physics in a multi-dimensional space. This methodology unveils about 25 years of scientific trends, enables us to predict innovative couplings of fields, and illustrates how Nobel Prize papers and APS milestones drive the future convergence of previously unrelated fields.

Exploring the role of interdisciplinarity in physics: Success, talent and luck

Although interdisciplinarity is often touted as a necessity for modern research, the evidence on the relative impact of sectorial versus to interdisciplinary science is qualitative at best. In this paper we leverage the bibliographic data set of the American Physical Society to quantify the role of interdisciplinarity in physics, and that of talent and luck in achieving success in scientific careers. We analyze a period of 30 years (1980-2009) tagging papers and their authors by means of the Physics and Astronomy Classification Scheme (PACS), to show that some degree of interdisciplinarity is quite helpful to reach success, measured as a proxy of either the number of articles or the citations score. We also propose an agent-based model of the publication-reputation-citation dynamics which reproduces the trends observed in the APS data set. On the one hand, the results highlight the crucial role of randomness and serendipity in real scientific research; on the other, they shed light on a counterintuitive effect indicating that the most talented authors are not necessarily the most successful ones.