Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

LA-ICPMS for In Situ U-Th Dating of Holocene Stalagmites

Here, we present an in situ U-Th dating approach of carbonate speleothems using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) with a detection efficiency of 1-2%. By online addition of a 229Th-233U-236U isotope triple spike to the laser-generated aerosol, instrumental mass discrimination and U/Th elemental fractionation could be monitored and corrected. With this approach, the 234U/238U and 230Th/238U activity ratios of a flowstone sample in secular equilibrium could be accurately reproduced as unity with two-sigma uncertainties ±0.053 and ±0.050, respectively. The method was used for the determination of the formation ages of individual layers in natural stalagmites ranging between 210 and 1 thousand years ago (ka). The determined ages corresponded well with those obtained using conventional solution multi collector-ICPMS techniques after isotope separation. Particularly, Holocene stalagmites, as young as 1 ka, could be accurately dated with 2 standard error of ±76 years. This developed microdomain U-Th dating approach thus can be applicable for diverse research areas, such as paleoclimatology, oceanography, geomagnetism, and archeology.

Tropical decadal variability in nutrient supply and phytoplankton community in the Central Equatorial Pacific during the late Holocene

We have reconstructed baseline δ15N and δ13C of export production at Kingman Reef in the Central Equatorial Pacific (CEP) at sub-decadal resolution, nearly continuously over the last 2000 years. The changes in δ15N reflects the strength of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) relative to the South Equatorial Current (SEC), and to a lesser extent, the North Equatorial Current (NEC). Seasonal to multi-decadal variation in the strength of these currents, through the redistribution of heat, have global climate impacts and influence marine and terrestrial ecosystems. We use modern El Niño-La Nina dynamics and the Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV) pattern, which is defined in the CEP, as a framework for analyzing the isotopic data. The CEP δ15N and δ13C records exhibit multi-decadal (50-60 year) variability consistent with TPDV. A large multi-centennial feature in the CEP δ15N data, within age-model uncertainties, is consistent with one of the prolonged dry-pluvial sequences in the American west at the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, where low TPDV is correlated with drier conditions. This unique record shows that the strength of the NECC, as reflected in baseline δ15N and δ13C, has at quasi-predictable intervals throughout the late Holocene, toggled the phytoplankton community between prokaryotes and picoplankton versus eukaryotes.

Forced changes in the Pacific Walker circulation over the past millennium

The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) has an outsized influence on weather and climate worldwide. Yet the PWC response to external forcings is unclear1,2, with empirical data and model simulations often disagreeing on the magnitude and sign of these responses3. Most climate models predict that the PWC will ultimately weaken in response to global warming4. However, the PWC strengthened from 1992 to 2011, suggesting a significant role for anthropogenic and/or volcanic aerosol forcing5, or internal variability. Here we use a new annually resolved, multi-method, palaeoproxy-derived PWC reconstruction ensemble (1200-2000) to show that the 1992-2011 PWC strengthening is anomalous but not unprecedented in the context of the past 800 years. The 1992-2011 PWC strengthening was unlikely to have been a consequence of volcanic forcing and may therefore have resulted from anthropogenic aerosol forcing or natural variability. We find no significant industrial-era (1850-2000) PWC trend, contrasting the PWC weakening simulated by most climate models3. However, an industrial-era shift to lower-frequency variability suggests a subtle anthropogenic influence. The reconstruction also suggests that volcanic eruptions trigger El Niño-like PWC weakening, similar to the response simulated by climate models.

Quantitative temperature and relative humidity changes recorded by the Lake Cuoqia in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past 300 years

High-elevation lakes on the Tibetan Plateau have the advantage of sensitive response to climate changes. Multiple proxy records in lake sediments can provide a large amount of extractable information for paleoclimate reconstructions and assessing the position of recent global warming within the context of natural climate variability. In this study, we reconstruct the climatic and environmental changes over the past 300 years from a remote alpine lake (Lake Cuoqia) in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau using multiple proxies including branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs), n-alkanes, elements, fatty acids and their hydrogen isotopes. Due to ice-cover nature of lake surface during winter, brGDGTs mainly reflect the variation in warm-season temperature from March to October, supported by nearby instrumental data. Our reconstructed high-resolution temperature showed a continuous cooling trend between 1700 and 1950 AD, followed by a rapid warming afterward, in parallel with other proxies such as n-alkanes and fatty acids in the same core, which is also consistent with previously published regional temperature records. The hydrogen isotope (δD) of fatty acids, similar to regional tree-ring δ18O, can record the history of atmospheric precipitation isotope and further indicate the variations of regional relative humidity. Our record exhibited a long-term decrease since 1700 AD, in accord with the decreasing lake level inferred from the ratio of Fe/Mn. The combined pattern of reconstructed temperature and relative humidity showed consistent changes before 1950 AD toward to a gradually cold-dry trend, whereas started to decouple afterward. Before 1950 AD, the declined temperature and relative humidity are mainly driven by insolation and thermal contrast between the Indian-Pacific Ocean and south Asian continent. After 1950 AD, decoupling of temperature and relative humidity may be related to the increased regional evaporation and human-induced emission of greenhouse gases and aerosol.

Variation of centennial precipitation patterns in Kuwait and their relation to climate change

The impact of climate change could be inferred by observing long-term climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. A local study on the climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, CO₂ emissions, and population was carried out. The temperature records of the study period reflected an increase of 1.3 °C, higher than the global average. The relationship between the climatic factors from statistical analysis inferred that local factors did not influence the precipitation in Kuwait but showed an interrelationship among temperature, CO₂ emissions, and, population. Therefore, Kuwait's precipitation concerning regional atmospheric processes like sea surface temperature, volcanic eruption, wind direction, and El Nino and La Nina events were studied. The pragmatic change in wind direction in Kuwait from northwest to north after 2005 has enforced to study the effect of the volcanic eruption of Mount Etna on the precipitation in Kuwait. A marked correlation between the precipitation trends and post-eruptive periods of Mount Etna was observed. Similarly, El Nino and La Nina events were correlated, especially with the monthly temperature and total rainfall. Thus, the increase in sea surface temperature and volcanic events influenced the Hadley cell circulation and the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, affecting the rain events in Kuwait.

Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone activity enhanced by increased Asian dust emissions during the Little Ice Age

Instrumental records reveal that intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity varies with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) on annual-decadal scales. Drivers of intense TC activity at the centennial-millennial scale are less clear, due to the sparseness of pre-observational reconstructions. Here, we present a new 2 kyr continuous activity record of intense TCs from offshore eastern China. Our reconstruction indicates that this site witnessed enhanced TC activity during relatively warm periods, with a widespread increase in TC activity during the later part of the Little Ice Age. This latter observation reveals that enhanced TC activity was synchronized with increased Asian dust emissions during the Little Ice Age. TC activity was also lower in the late Roman Warm Period, when SST was higher but Asian dust emissions were lower than in the early phase. Such patterns suggest a centennial-millennial link between TC climatology and a combination of SST changes and Asian dust levels.

Here, the authors show that enhanced tropical cyclone activity was synchronized with increased Asian dust emissions during the Little Ice Age, implying a mechanism linking tropical cyclone climatology to Asian dust levels, at 100 to 1000 year scales.

Sedimentary Responses to Climate Changes and Human Activities Over the Past 7400 Years in the Western Sunda Shelf

High-resolution records of grain size, major and trace elements, and Sr-Nd isotopes of Core K17 from the western Sunda Shelf were investigated to evaluate the response of weathering and terrigenous input to climatic changes and human activities over the past 7400 years. Sr-Nd isotopic results indicate that the Kelantan River is the main source of sedimentary material in the study core since the mid-Holocene. Chemical weathering levels are represented by the chemical index of alteration (CIA), αAlNa, and K2O/Al2O3 ratios; and geochemical and grain size proxies (including TiO2/CaO, Rb/Sr ratios, and grain size end-member) were used to establish variations of terrigenous input into the study core since 7400 cal yr BP. Based on these records, the evolution of weathering and terrigenous input processes in the western Sunda Shelf can be divided into four stages. During stage 1 (7400–3700 cal yr BP), increasing precipitation and decreasing temperature jointly balanced the relatively stable weathering and terrigenous sediment supply. Dramatically decreasing weathering rates were consistent with less rainfall and lower temperatures during stage 2 (3700–2600 cal yr BP). Heavy rainfall played a more important role than low temperature in controlling weathering and erosion, leading to increasing terrigenous input in stage 3 (2700–1600 cal yr BP). Because of the decoupling between weathering, erosion, and climate in the late Holocene (stage 4, since 1600 cal yr BP), increasing agriculture and related human activities likely dominated weathering and erosion relative to climate changes. Furthermore, the initial time at which human activity overwhelmed natural processes in the southern South China Sea (SCS) is similar to that in the northern SCS. Our results highlight that human activities during the past 1600 years have gradually overwhelmed natural climatic controls on weathering and erosion processes in the western Sunda Shelf.

Seven centuries of reconstructed Brahmaputra River discharge demonstrate underestimated high discharge and flood hazard frequency

The lower Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh and Northeast India often floods during the monsoon season, with catastrophic consequences for people throughout the region. While most climate models predict an intensified monsoon and increase in flood risk with warming, robust baseline estimates of natural climate variability in the basin are limited by the short observational record. Here we use a new seven-century (1309-2004 C.E) tree-ring reconstruction of monsoon season Brahmaputra discharge to demonstrate that the early instrumental period (1956-1986 C.E.) ranks amongst the driest of the past seven centuries (13th percentile). Further, flood hazard inferred from the recurrence frequency of high discharge years is severely underestimated by 24-38% in the instrumental record compared to previous centuries and climate model projections. A focus on only recent observations will therefore be insufficient to accurately characterise flood hazard risk in the region, both in the context of natural variability and climate change.

Rainwater isotopes in central Vietnam controlled by two oceanic moisture sources and rainout effects

The interpretation of palaeoclimate archives based on oxygen isotopes depends critically on a detailed understanding of processes controlling the isotopic composition of precipitation. In the summer monsoonal realm, like Southeast Asia, seasonally and interannually depleted oxygen isotope ratios in precipitation have been linked to the summer monsoon strength. However, in some regions, such as central Vietnam, the majority of precipitation falls outside the summer monsoon period. We investigate processes controlling stable isotopes in precipitation from central Vietnam by combining moisture uptake calculations with monthly stable isotope data observed over five years. We find that the isotopic seasonal cycle in this region is driven by a shift in moisture source from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. This shift is reflected in oxygen isotope ratios with low values (− 8 to − 10‰) during summer and high values during spring/winter (0 to − 3‰), while 70% of the annual rainfall occurs during autumn. Interannual changes in precipitation isotopes in central Vietnam are governed by the timing of the seasonal onset and withdrawal of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which controls the amount of vapour contributed from each source.

The Role of El Niño in Driving Drought Conditions over the Last 2000 Years in Thailand

Irregular climate events frequently occur in Southeast Asia due to the numerous climate patterns combining. Thailand sits at the confluence of these interactions, and consequently experiences major hydrological events, such as droughts. Proxy data, speleothem records, lake sediment sequences and tree ring chronologies were used to reconstruct paleo drought conditions. These trends were compared with modelled and historic El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data to assess if the ENSO climate phenomena is causing droughts in Thailand. Drought periods were found to occur both during El Niño events and ENSO neutral conditions. This indicates droughts are not a product of one climate pattern, but likely the result of numerous patterns interacting. There is uncertainty regarding how climate patterns will evolve under climate change, but changes in amplitude and variability could potentially lead to more frequent and wider reaching hydrological disasters. It is vital that policies are implemented to cope with the resulting social and economic repercussions, including diversification of crops and reorganisation of water consumption behaviour in Thailand.

A 338-year tree-ring oxygen isotope record from Thai teak captures the variations in the Asian summer monsoon system

A 338-year oxygen isotope record from teak tree-ring cellulose collected from Mae Hong Son province in northwestern Thailand was presented. The tree-ring series preserves the isotopic signal of the regional wet season rainfall and relative humidity. Tree-ring δ¹⁸O correlates strongly with regional rainfall from May to October, showing coherent variations over large areas in Southeast Asia. We reconstructed the summer monsoon season (May to October) rainfall based on a linear regression model that explained 35.2% of the actual rainfall variance. Additionally, we found that in the 19^th century, there was a remarkable drought during many years that corresponded to regional historic drought events. The signals of the June to September Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for the period between 1948 and 2009 were clearly found. Spatial correlations and spectral analyses revealed a strong impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tree-ring δ¹⁸O. However, ENSO influenced the tree-ring δ¹⁸O more strongly in the 1870-1906, 1907-1943, and 1944-1980 periods than in the 1981-2015 period, which corresponded to periods of weaker and stronger ISM intensity.