Stage-specific overcompensation, the hydra effect, and the failure to eradicate an invasive predator

Invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) predation in a Washington State estuary revealed with DNA metabarcoding

Predation by invasive species can threaten local ecosystems and economies. The European green crab (Carcinus maenas), one of the most widespread marine invasive species, is an effective predator associated with clam and crab population declines outside of its native range. In the U.S. Pacific Northwest, green crab has recently increased in abundance and expanded its distribution, generating concern for estuarine ecosystems and associated aquaculture production. However, regionally-specific information on the trophic impacts of invasive green crab is very limited. We compared the stomach contents of green crabs collected on clam aquaculture beds versus intertidal sloughs in Willapa Bay, Washington, to provide the first in-depth description of European green crab diet at a particularly crucial time for regional management. We first identified putative prey items using DNA metabarcoding of stomach content samples. We compared diet composition across sites using prey presence/absence and an index of species-specific relative abundance. For eight prey species, we also calibrated metabarcoding data to quantitatively compare DNA abundance between prey taxa, and to describe an 'average' green crab diet at an intertidal slough versus a clam aquaculture bed. From the stomach contents of 61 green crabs, we identified 54 unique taxa belonging to nine phyla. The stomach contents of crabs collected from clam aquaculture beds were significantly different from the stomach contents of crabs collected at intertidal sloughs. Across all sites, arthropods were the most frequently detected prey, with the native hairy shore crab (Hemigrapsus oregonensis) the single most common prey item. Of the eight species calibrated with a quantitative model, two ecologically-important native species-the sand shrimp (Crangon franciscorum) and the Pacific staghorn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus)-had the highest average DNA abundance when detected in a stomach content sample. In addition to providing timely information on green crab diet, our research demonstrates the novel application of a recently developed model for more quantitative DNA metabarcoding. This represents another step in the ongoing evolution of DNA-based diet analysis towards producing the quantitative data necessary for modeling invasive species impacts.

Overcompensation of transient and permanent death rate increases in age-structured models with cannibalistic interactions

There has been renewed interest in understanding the mathematical structure of ecological population models that lead to overcompensation, the process by which a population recovers to a higher level after suffering a permanent increase in predation or harvesting. Here, we apply a recently formulated kinetic population theory to formally construct an age-structured single-species population model that includes a cannibalistic interaction in which older individuals prey on younger ones. Depending on the age-dependent structure of this interaction, our model can exhibit transient or steady-state overcompensation of an increased death rate as well as oscillations of the total population, both phenomena that have been observed in ecological systems. Analytic and numerical analysis of our model reveals sufficient conditions for overcompensation and oscillations. We also show how our structured population partial integrodifferential equation (PIDE) model can be reduced to coupled ODE models representing piecewise constant parameter domains, providing additional mathematical insight into the emergence of overcompensation.

Evidence of a compensatory response in invasive Rusty Crayfish (Faxonius rusticus) following intensive harvest removal from northern Lake Michigan fish spawning reefs

The goal of most invasive species suppression programs is to achieve long-term sustained reductions in population abundance, yet removal programs can be stymied by density-dependent population responses. We tested a harvest removal strategy for invasive Rusty Crayfish (Faxonius rusticus) at two nearshore native fish spawning habitats in northern Lake Michigan. Changes in average Rusty Crayfish densities were evaluated with a before-after reference-impact study design. We removed 3182 Rusty Crayfish, primarily adults (> 20 mm carapace length), at two sites over two harvest seasons, expending 17,825 trap days in effort. Generalized linear modeling results suggested a statistically significant reduction in Rusty Crayfish densities was achieved at one reef, Little Traverse Bay (LTB Crib). Reduced densities were sustained over the egg maturation period for native fish and into the following year after removal ceased. By late summer/early fall, between consecutive suppression efforts in 2018 and 2019, we observed a threefold increase in pre-removal densities. Size-frequency histograms from diver quadrat surveys showed higher abundances of juvenile (< 20 mm carapace length) size classes the following spring and summer at LTB Crib compared to its paired reference site. Stock-recruit curves fit to count data, pooled across all sites, provided further evidence of density-dependence. With a proviso that we only conducted two seasons of consecutive suppression, this study highlights an important aspect of invasive species management and raises questions about the efficacy of adult-only crayfish removal strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03076-6.

Pathways to the density-dependent expression of cannibalism, and consequences for regulated population dynamics

Cannibalism, once viewed as a rare or aberrant behavior, is now recognized to be widespread and to contribute broadly to the self-regulation of many populations. Cannibalism can produce endogenous negative feedback on population growth because it is expressed as a conditional behavior, responding to the deteriorating ecological conditions that flow, directly or indirectly, from increasing densities of conspecifics. Thus, cannibalism emerges as a strongly density-dependent source of mortality. In this synthesis, we review recent research that has revealed a rich diversity of pathways through which rising density elicits increased cannibalism, including both factors that (a) elevate the rate of dangerous encounters between conspecifics and (b) enhance the likelihood that such encounters will lead to successful cannibalistic attacks. These pathways include both features of the autecology of cannibal populations and features of interactions with other species, including food resources and pathogens. Using mathematical models, we explore the consequences of including density-dependent cannibal attack rates on population dynamics. The conditional expression of cannibalism generally enhances stability and population regulation in single-species models but also may increase opportunities for alternative states and prey population escape from control by cannibalistic predators.

Predatory ability and abundance forecast the ecological impacts of two aquatic invasive species

Characterising interspecific interaction strengths, combined with population abundances of prey and their novel predators, is critical to develop predictive invasion ecology. This is especially true of aquatic invasive species, which can pose a significant threat to the structure and stability of the ecosystems to which they are introduced. Here, we investigated consumer-resource dynamics of two globally-established aquatic invasive species, European green crab (Carcinus maenas) and brown trout (Salmo trutta). We explored the mediating effect of prey density on predatory impact in these invaders relative to functionally analogous native rock crab (Cancer irroratus) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), respectively, feeding on shared prey (Mytilus sp. and Tenebrio molitor, respectively). We subsequently combined feeding rates with each predator’s regional abundance to forecast relative ecological impacts. All predators demonstrated potentially destabilising Type II functional responses towards prey, with native rock crab and invasive brown trout exhibiting greater per capita impacts relative to their trophic analogues. Functional Response Ratios (attack rates divided by handling times) were higher for both invasive species, reflecting greater overall per capita effects compared to natives. Impact projections that incorporated predator abundances with per capita effects predicted severe impacts by European green crabs. However, brown trout, despite possessing higher per capita effects than Atlantic salmon, are projected to have low impact owing to currently low abundances in the sampled watershed. Should brown trout density increase sixfold, we predict it would exert higher impact than Atlantic salmon. Such impact-forecasting metrics and methods are thus vital tools to assist in the determination of current and future adverse impacts associated with aquatic invasive species.

Balanced polymorphism fuels rapid selection in an invasive crab despite high gene flow and low genetic diversity

Adaptation across environmental gradients has been demonstrated in numerous systems with extensive dispersal, despite high gene flow and consequently low genetic structure. The speed and mechanisms by which such adaptation occurs remain poorly resolved, but are critical to understanding species spread and persistence in a changing world. Here, we investigate these mechanisms in the European green crab Carcinus maenas, a globally distributed invader. We focus on a northwestern Pacific population that spread across >12 degrees of latitude in 10 years from a single source, following its introduction <35 years ago. Using six locations spanning >1500 km, we examine genetic structure using 9376 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We find high connectivity among five locations, with significant structure between these locations and an enclosed lagoon with limited connectivity to the coast. Among the five highly connected locations, the only structure observed was a cline driven by a handful of SNPs strongly associated with latitude and winter temperature. These SNPs are almost exclusively found in a large cluster of genes in strong linkage disequilibrium that was previously identified as a candidate for cold tolerance adaptation in this species. This region may represent a balanced polymorphism that evolved to promote rapid adaptation in variable environments despite high gene flow, and which now contributes to successful invasion and spread in a novel environment. This research suggests an answer to the paradox of genetically depauperate yet successful invaders: populations may be able to adapt via a few variants of large effect despite low overall diversity.