Randomized trial shows healthcare payment reform has equal-sized spillover effects on patients not targeted by reform

Outcomes by Race and Ethnicity Following a Medicare Bundled Payment Program for Joint Replacement

Importance

The Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model, a traditional Medicare bundled payment program for lower-extremity joint replacement, is associated with care for patients outside traditional Medicare. Whether CJR model outcomes have differed by patient race or ethnicity outside of traditional Medicare is unclear.

Objective

To evaluate outcomes associated with the CJR model among Hispanic patients not enrolled in traditional Medicare.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used hospitalization data from California's Patient Discharge Dataset for all patients who underwent lower-extremity joint replacement in California between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2017. In California, 3 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) were randomly selected to participate in CJR in April 2016. Hospitals not participating in other Medicare Alternative Payment Models were included in the treated group if they were in these 3 MSAs and in the control group if they were in the remaining 23 MSAs. The data analysis was performed between October 1 and December 31, 2023.

Exposure

Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement program implementation.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were hospital length of stay and home discharge rates by race and ethnicity. Home discharge status included self-care, the use of home health services, and hospice care at home. Event study, difference-in-differences, and triple differences models were used to estimate differential changes in health care service use by race and ethnicity for patients in the treated MSAs compared with the control MSAs before vs after CJR implementation.

Results

Of 309 834 hospitalizations (patient mean [SD] age, 68.3 [11.3] years; 60.6% women; 14.8% Hispanic; 72.4% non-Hispanic White), 48.0% were in treated MSAs and 52.0% in control MSAs. The CJR program was associated with an increase in home discharge rates for patients without traditional Medicare coverage; however, the increase differed by patient race and ethnicity. The increase was 0.05 (95% CI, 0.02-0.08) percentage points higher for Hispanic patients with Medicare Advantage and 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01-0.04) percentage points higher for Hispanic patients without Medicare compared with their non-Hispanic White counterparts.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study shows that CJR program outcomes differed by race and ethnicity for patients covered outside traditional Medicare, with home discharge rates increasing more for Hispanic compared with non-Hispanic White patients. These findings suggest the importance of considering differential outcomes of Medicare payment policies for racial and ethnic minority patient populations beyond the initially targeted groups.

Employer-Sponsored Medicare Advantage Plans and the 2018 Therapy Cap Repeal: Reduced Overall Spending Does Not Constrain Out-of-Pocket Costs

BACKGROUND

Policy impacting traditional Medicare beneficiaries may have unintended effects for privately insured patients. After the repeal of a longstanding $1500 outpatient therapy cap in 2018, we aimed to evaluate if this policy change was associated with differences in use of cost of postoperative therapy after common hand surgeries, including carpal tunnel release, trigger finger release, ganglion cyst excision, De Quervain tenosynovitis release, carpometacarpal arthroplasty, and distal radius fracture open reduction/internal fixation or percutaneous pinning.

METHODS

The Medicare Supplement and Coordination of Benefits files from Marketscan were used. Frequency of therapy appointments, overall costs, and out-of-pocket costs were obtained. A segmented interrupted time series with Poisson and log-transformed linear regression was performed.

RESULTS

No significant monthly change in odds of therapy use was found in the postpolicy period for patients who underwent trigger finger release, carpal tunnel release, Ganglion cyst excision, De Quervain tenosynovitis release, carpometacarpal arthroplasty, or distal radius fracture, pinning, or open reduction/internal fixation. Overall cost decreased in the postpolicy period by 2% for comprehensive plans (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.03 to -0.01, P < 0.001), by 7% for those with exclusive provider organizations (95% CI: -0.10 to -0.04, P < 0.001), by 1% for HMOs (95% CI: -0.01 to 0.002, P = 0.01), and by 3% for preferred provider organizations (95% CI: -0.03 to -0.02, P < 0.001). In the postpolicy period, no monthly change in out-of-pocket cost was observed for patients with comprehensive, exclusive provider organization, health maintenance organization, preferred provider organization, or point of service with capitation insurance plans.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with employer-sponsored Medicare Advantage plans experienced increased out-of-pocket costs for therapy despite lower net costs. These data highlight an urgent need for policy ensuring that patients benefit when overall costs of care decrease.

Patient experience with hospital care following the Maryland global budget revenue model: A difference-in-difference analysis

INTRODUCTION

As a result of the success of Maryland's full risk capitated payment model experiment (Global Budget Revenue) in constraining healthcare costs, there is momentum for expanding the reach of such models. However, as these models are implemented, studies analyzing their long-term effects suggest unintended spillover effects that may ultimately influence patient experiences. The aim of this study was to determine whether implementation of the GBR was associated with changes in patient experience.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study using a difference-in-difference analysis to examine changes in patient experiences according to the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) domains before and after implementation of the GBR model. Acute care hospitals from 2010-2016 with completed HCAHPS surveys were included. Hospitals identified for inclusion were then matched, based on county location, to area level characteristics using the Area Health Resource File.

RESULTS

A total of 844 hospitals were included. Compared to hospitals in non-GBR states, hospitals in GBR states experienced significant declines in the following HCAHPS domains: "would definitely recommend the hospital to others" [Average treatment effect (ATT) = -1.19, 95% CI = -1.97, -0.41)] and 9-10 rating of the hospital (ATT = -0.93, 95% CI = -1.71, -0.15). Results also showed significant increases in the HCAHPS domains: "if patient's rooms and bathroom were always kept clean" (ATT = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.20, 2.00). There were no significant differences in changes for the other domains, including no improvements in: nursing communication, doctor communication, help from hospital staff, pain control, communication on medicines, discharge information, and quietness of the patient environment.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest there should be efforts made to ascertain and mitigate potential adverse effects of care transformation initiatives on patient experience. Patients are stakeholders and their inputs should be sought and incorporated in care transformation efforts to ensure that these models align with improved patient experiences.

Association of Hospitals' Experience with Bundled Payment for Care Improvement Model with the Diffusion of Acute Hospital Care at Home

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether hospitals' experience in a prior payment model incentivizing care coordination is associated with their decision to adopt a new payment program for a care delivery innovation.

DATA SOURCES

Data were sourced from Medicare fee-for-service claims in 2017, the list of participants in Bundled Payment for Care Improvement initiatives (BPCI and BPCI-Advanced), the list of hospitals approved for Acute Hospital Care at Home (AHCaH) between November 2020 and August 2022, and the American Hospital Association Survey.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study. Hospitals' adoption of AHCaH was measured as a function of hospitals' BPCI experiences. Hospitals' BPCI experiences were categorized into five mutually exclusive groups: (1) direct BPCI participation, (2) indirect participation through physician group practices (PGPs) after dropout, (3) indirect participation through PGPs only, (4) dropout only, and (5) no BPCI exposure.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

All data are derived from pre-existing sources. General acute hospitals eligible for both BPCI initiatives and AHCaH are included.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Of 3248 hospitals included in the sample, 7% adopted AHCaH as of August 2022. Hospitals with direct BPCI experience had the highest adoption rate (17.7%), followed by those with indirect participation through BPCI physicians after dropout (11.8%), while those with no exposure to BPCI were least likely to participate (3.2%). Hospitals that adopted AHCaH were more likely to be located in communities where more peer hospitals participated in the program (median 10.8% vs. 0%). After controlling for covariates, the association of the adoption of AHCaH with indirect participation through physicians after dropout was as strong as with early BPCI adopter hospitals (average marginal effect: 5.9 vs. 6.2 pp, p < 0.05), but the other categories were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitals that participated in the bundled payment model either directly or indirectly PGPs were more likely to adopt a care delivery innovation requiring similar competence in the next period.

Association between Medicaid Expansion and Cutaneous Melanoma Diagnosis and Outcomes: Does Where You Live Make a Difference?

BACKGROUND

Early detection and standardized treatment are crucial for enhancing outcomes for patients with cutaneous melanoma, the commonly diagnosed skin cancer. However, access to quality health care services remains a critical barrier for many patients, particularly the uninsured. Whereas Medicaid expansion (ME) has had a positive impact on some cancers, its specific influence on cutaneous melanoma remains understudied.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database identified 87,512 patients 40-64 years of age with a diagnosis of non-metastatic cutaneous melanoma between 2004 and 2017. In this study, patient demographics, disease characteristics, and treatment variables were analyzed, and ME status was determined based on state policies. Standard univariate statistics were used to compare patients with a diagnosis of non-metastatic cutaneous melanoma between ME and non-ME states. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank tests were used to evaluate overall survival (OS) between ME and non-ME states. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to examine associations with OS.

RESULTS

Overall, 28.6 % (n = 25,031) of the overall cohort was in ME states. The patients in ME states were more likely to be insured, live in neighborhoods with higher median income quartiles, receive treatment at academic/research cancer centers, have lower stages of disease, and receive surgery than the patients in non-ME states. Kaplan-Meier analysis found enhanced 5-year OS for the patients in ME states across all stages. Cox regression showed improved survival in ME states for stage II (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84) and stage III (HR, 0.75) melanoma.

CONCLUSIONS

This study underscores the positive association between ME and improved diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes for patients with non-metastatic cutaneous melanoma. These findings advocate for continued efforts to enhance health care accessibility for vulnerable populations.

Building alternative payment models in health care

Introduction

Global interest is growing in new value-based models of financing, delivering, and paying for health care services that could produce higher-quality and lower cost outcomes for patients and for society. However, research indicates evidence gaps in knowledge related to alternative payment models (APMs) in early experimentation phases or those contracted between private insurers and their health care provider-partners. The aim of this research was to understand and update the literature related to learning how industry experts design and implement APMs, including specific elements of their models and their choice of stakeholders to be involved in the design and contractual details.

Methods

A literature review was conducted to guide the research focus and to select themes. The sample was selected using snowball sampling to identify subject matter experts (SMEs). Researchers conducted 16 semi-structured interviews with SMEs in the US, the Netherlands, and Germany in September and October 2021. Interviews were transcribed and using Braun and Clarke's six-phase approach to thematic analysis, researchers independently read, reviewed, and coded participants' responses related to APM design and implementation and subsequently reviewed each other's codes and themes for consistency.

Results

Participants represented diverse perspectives of the payer, provider, consulting, and government areas of the health care sector. We found design considerations had five overarching themes: (1) population and scope of care and services, (2) benchmarking, metrics, data, and technology; (3) finance, APM type, risk adjustment, incentives, and influencing provider behavior, (4) provider partnerships and the role of physicians, and (5) leadership and regulatory issues.

Discussion

This study confirmed several of the core components of APM model designs and implementations found in the literature and brought insights on additional aspects not previously emphasized, particularly the role of physicians (especially in leadership) and practice transformation/care processes necessary for providers to thrive under APM models. Importantly, researchers found significant concerns relevant for policymakers about regulations relating to health data sharing, rigid price-setting, and inter-organizational data communication that greatly inhibit the ability to experiment with APMs and those models' abilities to succeed long-term.

Is there an advantage? Considerations for researchers studying the effects of the type of Medicare coverage

OBJECTIVE

To describe common methodological problems that arise in comparisons of Medicare Advantage (MA) and Traditional Medicare (TM) and within-MA studies and provide suggestions of how researchers can address these issues.

STUDY SETTING

Published research evaluating Medicare coverage options in the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

We considered key conceptual challenges and promising solutions that have been used thus far and suggest additional directions.

DATA COLLECTION

Not available.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Many existing studies of MA versus TM include significant limitations, such as failing to account for unobserved confounders driving both beneficiary coverage choice and health outcomes once enrolled, not accounting for variation in benefit generosity, provider networks, or plan design across MA plans, and/or having been conducted at a time when MA enrollment was less than a third of all Medicare beneficiaries. We provide a review of methods that can help researchers to overcome these weaknesses and suggest additional methods and data sources that may aid future research.

CONCLUSIONS

The MA program is becoming an essential part of the US healthcare system. By accounting for non-random movement into and out of MA and studying the heterogeneity of beneficiary experience across plan and market characteristics, researchers can provide the high-quality evidence necessary for policymakers to design the program and reform TM in ways that maximize beneficiary outcomes.

Reminder design and childhood vaccination coverage

A major policy concern across public vaccination programs is non-compliance. Exploiting Danish population data and three national reforms in regression discontinuity designs, we document the effects of reminders for childhood vaccination coverage. Retrospective reminders are primarily effective for families with small children and when sent out close to the recommended vaccination age. Digital and postal reminders are equally effective. Prospective reminders increase timely vaccinations in later childhood and help reaching high coverage for new vaccines in increasingly complex vaccination programs. While reminders prompt additional preventive care for focal children, we find no spillovers to other health behaviors or relatives.

Trends in performance of hospital outpatient procedures and associated 30-day costs among Medicare beneficiaries from 2011 to 2018

BACKGROUND

United States healthcare has increasingly transitioned to outpatient care delivery. The degree to which Academic Medical Centers (AMCs) have been able to shift surgical procedures from inpatient to outpatient settings despite higher patient complexity is unknown.

METHODS

This observational study used a 20% sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older undergoing eight elective procedures from 2011 to 2018 to model trends in procedure site (hospital outpatient vs. inpatient) and 30-day standardized Medicare costs, overall and by hospital teaching status.

RESULTS

Of the 1,222,845 procedures, 15.9% occurred at AMCs. There was a 2.42% per-year adjusted increase (95% CI 2.39%-2.45%; p < .001) in proportion of outpatient hospital procedures, from 68.9% in 2011 to 85.4% in 2018. Adjusted 30-day standardized costs declined from $18,122 to $14,353, (-$560/year, 95% CI -$573 to -$547; p < .001). Patients at AMCs had more chronic conditions and higher predicted annual mortality. AMCs had a lower proportion of outpatient procedures in all years compared to non-AMCs, a difference that was statistically significant but small in magnitude. AMCs had higher costs compared to non-AMCs and a lesser decline over time (p < .001 for the interaction). AMCs and non-AMCs saw a similar decline in 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a substantial shift toward outpatient procedures among Medicare beneficiaries with a decrease in total 30-day Medicare spending as well as 30-day mortality. Despite a higher complexity population, AMCs shifted procedures to the outpatient hospital setting at a similar rate as non-AMCs.

IMPLICATIONS

The trend toward outpatient procedural care and lower spending has been observed broadly across AMCs and non-AMCs, suggesting that Medicare beneficiaries have benefited from more efficient delivery of procedural care across academic and community hospitals.

Is the Centralization of Complex Surgical Procedures an Unintended Spillover Effect of Global Capitation? - Insights from the Maryland Global Budget Revenue Program

OBJECTIVE

To determine if global budget revenue (GBR) models incent the centralization of complex surgical care.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND

In 2014, Maryland initiated a statewide GBR model. While prior research has shown improvements in cost and outcomes for surgical care post-GBR implementation, the mechanism remains unclear.

METHODS

Utilizing state inpatient databases, we compared the proportion of adults undergoing elective complex surgeries (gastrectomy, pneumonectomy/lobectomy, proctectomies, and hip/knee revision) at high-concentration hospitals (HCHs) in Maryland and control states. Annual concentration, per procedure, was defined as hospital volume divided by state volume. HCHs were defined as hospitals with a concentration at least at the 75 th percentile in 2010. We estimated the difference-in-differences (DiD) of the probability of patients undergoing surgery at HCHs before and after GBR implementation.

FINDINGS

Our sample included 122,882 surgeries. Following GBR implementation, all procedures were increasingly performed at HCHs in Maryland. States satisfied the parallel trends assumption for the centralization of gastrectomy and pneumonectomy/lobectomy. Post-GBR, patients were more likely to undergo gastrectomy (DiD: 5.5 p.p., 95% CI [2.2, 8.8]) and pneumonectomy/lobectomy (DiD: 12.4 p.p., 95% CI [10.0, 14.8]) at an HCH in Maryland compared with control states. For our hip/knee revision analyses, we assumed persistent counterfactuals and noted a positive DiD post-GBR implementation (DiD: 4.8 p.p., 95% CI [1.3, 8.2]). No conclusion could be drawn for proctectomy due to different pre-GBR trends.

CONCLUSIONS

GBR implementation is associated with increased centralization for certain complex surgeries. Future research is needed to explore the impact of centralization on patient experience and access.

High-Risk Patient Experiences Associated With an Intensive Primary Care Management Program in the Veterans Health Administration

Intensive management programs may improve health care experiences among high-risk and complex patients. We assessed patient experience among (1) prior enrollees (n = 59) of an intensive management program (2014-2018); (2) nonenrollees (n = 356) at program sites; and (3) nonprogram site patients (n = 728), using a patient survey based on the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems in 2019. Outcomes included patient ratings of patient-centered care; overall health care experience; and satisfaction with their usual outpatient care provider. In multivariate models, enrollees were more satisfied with their current provider versus nonenrollees within program sites (adjusted odds ratio 2.36; 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.85).

The impact of increasing expenditure on National Essential Public Health Services on the medical costs of hypertension in China: A difference-in-difference analysis

BACKGROUND

The prevention and control of hypertension should be an effective way to reduce deaths and it has been a high priority in China. In 2013, the Chinese government increased the subsidy standard for the National Essential Public Health Services Package (NEPHSP) from RMB 15 to RMB 30 per person, which was expected to cover 70 million hypertensions. This study explored the influence of increasing NEPHSP subsidy on outpatient and inpatient expenditure among patients with hypertension.

METHODS

Data were mined from the 2011-2015 Harmonized China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. The study sample included 3192 hypertensive patients who were not lost to follow-up from 2011 to 2015. Hypertensive patients who covered by NEPHSP from 2011 to 2015 were defined as the treatment group, otherwise defined as the comparison group. The policy intervention was the increase of NEPHSP subsidy in 2013, and the years before and after 2013 were respectively considered as pre- (2011) and post-intervention (2015). The primary outcomes variables were the outpatient and inpatient expenditure of patients with hypertension, based on direct spending of outpatients and inpatients separately reported by patients with hypertension. Using propensity score matching (PSM) to match the individual characteristics of hypertension in the treatment group and the comparison group, difference-in-differences (DID) were used to analyze the outcomes.

RESULTS

The patients with hypertension' outpatient and inpatient expenditure patterns in the treatment and control group show an increasing trend from 2011 to 2015. After PSM, of the 1 956 hypertensive participants, 369 covered by the NEPHSP before and after 2013. A DID estimate of the increased NEPHSP subsidy was associated with a significant decrease of 1 251.35 RMB (t = 2.13, P = 0.034) in hypertension related inpatient expenditure, no significant change (t = 0.61, P = 0.544) among outpatient expenditure.

CONCLUSIONS

The NEPHSP may reduce inpatient expenditure among hypertension. Further strengthening of the NEPHSP may reduce their burden.

Trends in the Impact of Medicaid Expansion on the Use of Clinical Preventive Services

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to evaluate the trends in the impact of Medicaid expansion on the use of selected recommended clinical preventive services and examine the differences in use by income level over time.

METHODS

The data were obtained from the 2011-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and were analyzed in 2021. This study conducted a difference-in-differences analysis of the association between Medicaid expansion and the use of 5 clinical preventive services, including colon/breast/cervical cancer screenings, HIV testing, and influenza vaccination. Annual percentage change was applied to assess the trends in the impact of Medicaid expansion on the use of clinical preventive services.

RESULTS

The use of all the 5 clinical preventive services varied over time. In almost every year, the use of 4 clinical preventive services (all but HIV testing) among Medicaid expansion states was higher than that among the nonexpansion states. People with lower income used 4 clinical preventive services (all but HIV testing) less frequently than those with higher income, regardless of their residence in expansion or nonexpansion groups. Among the lower-income group, the use of 5 clinical preventive services increased after Medicaid expansion almost every year, with the use of colon cancer screening and HIV testing reaching statistical significance and the impact of Medicaid expansion in the use of each clinical preventive service kept stable from 2014 to 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide evidence that Medicaid expansion may be associated with sustainably increased use of the selected recommended clinical preventive services among the lower-income population and that Medicaid expansion to reduce financial barriers may be an effective strategy to improve population health.

The Spillover Effect of the Medicare Mandatory Bundled Payment Program on Joint Replacement Outcomes: Analysis of Patients with Commercial Insurance and Medicare Advantage

BACKGROUND

To improve the value and efficiency of care among traditional Medicare enrollees, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has implemented alternative payment models designed to control health-care spending and improve quality. These models may affect care beyond traditional Medicare enrollees, "spilling over" into other populations. Established in April 2016, the Medicare mandatory bundled payment program, called the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model, holds hospitals accountable for spending and quality of care for traditional Medicare joint-replacement patients during care episodes that span from the index hospitalization to 90 days post-discharge. We assessed the extent to which the CJR model was associated with outcomes for patients enrolled in commercial insurance and Medicare Advantage plans.

METHODS

With use of Health Care Cost Institute claims data from 2012 through 2017, we assessed the association of the CJR model with total expenditures, discharges to institutional post-acute care, and readmissions among commercial insurance and Medicare Advantage joint-replacement patients. The exposure variable was the implementation of the CJR model in 67 randomly selected metropolitan statistical areas compared with 103 similar areas without CJR implementation. We utilized difference-in-differences models to estimate the spillover effects of the CJR model by comparing outcomes between these areas before and after CJR implementation.

RESULTS

The study included 174,893 joint-replacement episodes of care in commercial insurance enrollees and 202,070 episodes in Medicare Advantage enrollees. Among both commercial insurance and Medicare Advantage enrollees, CJR implementation was associated with no meaningful changes in total episode expenditures, discharges to institutional post-acute care, or readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence for spillover effects of the CJR model on commercial insurance and Medicare Advantage patients, suggesting that alternative payment models targeting traditional Medicare patients may have limited effects on the cost and quality of care for patients outside of the traditional Medicare system.

Framework for identification and measurement of spillover effects in policy implementation: intended non-intended targeted non-targeted spillovers (INTENTS)

BACKGROUND

There is increasing awareness among researchers and policymakers of the potential for healthcare interventions to have consequences beyond those initially intended. These unintended consequences or "spillover effects" result from the complex features of healthcare organisation and delivery and can either increase or decrease overall effectiveness. Their potential influence has important consequences for the design and evaluation of implementation strategies and for decision-making. However, consideration of spillovers remains partial and unsystematic. We develop a comprehensive framework for the identification and measurement of spillover effects resulting from changes to the way in which healthcare services are organised and delivered.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review to map the existing literature on spillover effects in health and healthcare interventions and used the findings of this review to develop a comprehensive framework to identify and measure spillover effects.

RESULTS

The scoping review identified a wide range of different spillover effects, either experienced by agents not intentionally targeted by an intervention or representing unintended effects for targeted agents. Our scoping review revealed that spillover effects tend to be discussed in papers only when they are found to be statistically significant or might account for unexpected findings, rather than as a pre-specified feature of evaluation studies. This hinders the ability to assess all potential implications of a given policy or intervention. We propose a taxonomy of spillover effects, classified based on the outcome and the unit experiencing the effect: within-unit, between-unit, and diagonal spillover effects. We then present the INTENTS framework: Intended Non-intended TargEted Non-Targeted Spillovers. The INTENTS framework considers the units and outcomes which may be affected by an intervention and the mechanisms by which spillover effects are generated.

CONCLUSIONS

The INTENTS framework provides a structured guide for researchers and policymakers when considering the potential effects that implementation strategies may generate, and the steps to take when designing and evaluating such interventions. Application of the INTENTS framework will enable spillover effects to be addressed appropriately in future evaluations and decision-making, ensuring that the full range of costs and benefits of interventions are correctly identified.

VOLUNTARY REGULATION: EVIDENCE FROM MEDICARE PAYMENT REFORM

Government programs are often offered on an optional basis to market participants. We explore the economics of such voluntary regulation in the context of a Medicare payment reform, in which one medical provider receives a single, predetermined payment for a sequence of related healthcare services, instead of separate service-specific payments. This "bundled payment" program was originally implemented as a 5-year randomized trial, with mandatory participation by hospitals assigned to the new payment model; however, after two years, participation was made voluntary for half of these hospitals. Using detailed claim-level data, we document that voluntary participation is more likely for hospitals that can increase revenue without changing behavior ("selection on levels") and for hospitals that had large changes in behavior when participation was mandatory ("selection on slopes"). To assess outcomes under counterfactual regimes, we estimate a stylized model of responsiveness to and selection into the program. We find that the current voluntary regime generates inefficient transfers to hospitals, and that alternative (feasible) designs could reduce these inefficient transfers and raise welfare. Our analysis highlights key design elements to consider under voluntary regulation.

Beyond Causality: Additional Benefits of Randomized Controlled Trials for Improving Health Care Delivery

Policy Points Policymakers at federal and state agencies, health systems, payers, and providers need rigorous evidence for strategies to improve health care delivery and population health. This is all the more urgent now, during the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, especially among low-income communities and communities of color. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are known for their ability to produce credible causal impact estimates, which is why they are used to evaluate the safety and efficacy of drugs and, increasingly, to evaluate health care delivery and policy. But RCTs provide other benefits, allowing policymakers and researchers to: 1) design studies to answer the question they want to answer, 2) test theory and mechanisms to help enrich understanding beyond the results of a single study, 3) examine potentially subtle, indirect effects of a program or policy, and 4) collaborate closely to generate policy-relevant findings. Illustrating each of these points with examples of recent RCTs in health care, we demonstrate how policymakers can utilize RCTs to solve pressing challenges.

Trends in the Utilization of Recommended Clinical Preventive Services, 2011-2019

INTRODUCTION

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act requires many health insurance plans to cover certain clinical preventive services in network with no cost sharing. This study describes the utilization trends of 8 clinical preventive services by insurance status and analyzes utilization disparities.

METHODS

Data were collected from 2011 to 2019 through the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and were analyzed in 2021. Logistic regression and generalized linear modeling were fitted to calculate the absolute and relative differences by insurance status, respectively. Annual percentage point change was applied to assess the trends in utilization and the relative difference.

RESULTS

Trends in utilization ranged from an annual percentage point change high with zoster vaccination of 8.03 (p<0.01) and a low with cervical cancer screening of -1.01 (p<0.01). Trends (except for HIV testing) were consistently substantially lower among the uninsured. Utilization among all participants increased for 4 clinical preventive services, although larger increases were observed among the uninsured for breast and colon cancer screenings. The utilization of cervical cancer screening decreased, and the utilization of the other 3 services did not change significantly. The relative difference between the insured and the uninsured decreased modestly with the greatest reductions observed for breast cancer screening and zoster vaccination, whereas increases were observed for HIV testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the reduction of cost barriers for the insured, there were larger increases in utilization among the uninsured, and a narrowed gap was observed over time for some services. Ongoing efforts to monitor the trends in clinical preventive services utilization may help identify and evaluate the strategies designed to increase their use.

State Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services Policies and Health Expenditures by Payer

This study examines the relationship between two state Medicaid home and community-based services (HCBS) policies - number of beneficiaries (Participation) and use per beneficiary (Intensity) - and individual health expenditures. Data include the 2008-2013 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey and state-level Medicaid HCBS indicators. Two-part generalized linear models are estimated for health expenditures by payer and dual-eligibility status. The likelihood and level of Medicare expenditures are significantly lower in states in the top quartile of Participation and Intensity. Findings suggest that state Medicaid HCBS policies may impact health expenditures, with potential spillover effects on Medicare spending.