Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition

Deep-learning seismology

Seismic waves from earthquakes and other sources are used to infer the structure and properties of Earth's interior. The availability of large-scale seismic datasets and the suitability of deep-learning techniques for seismic data processing have pushed deep learning to the forefront of fundamental, long-standing research investigations in seismology. However, some aspects of applying deep learning to seismology are likely to prove instructive for the geosciences, and perhaps other research areas more broadly. Deep learning is a powerful approach, but there are subtleties and nuances in its application. We present a systematic overview of trends, challenges, and opportunities in applications of deep-learning methods in seismology.

Physics-informed attention-based neural network for hyperbolic partial differential equations: application to the Buckley–Leverett problem

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have enabled significant improvements in modelling physical processes described by partial differential equations (PDEs) and are in principle capable of modeling a large variety of differential equations. PINNs are based on simple architectures, and learn the behavior of complex physical systems by optimizing the network parameters to minimize the residual of the underlying PDE. Current network architectures share some of the limitations of classical numerical discretization schemes when applied to non-linear differential equations in continuum mechanics. A paradigmatic example is the solution of hyperbolic conservation laws that develop highly localized nonlinear shock waves. Learning solutions of PDEs with dominant hyperbolic character is a challenge for current PINN approaches, which rely, like most grid-based numerical schemes, on adding artificial dissipation. Here, we address the fundamental question of which network architectures are best suited to learn the complex behavior of non-linear PDEs. We focus on network architecture rather than on residual regularization. Our new methodology, called physics-informed attention-based neural networks (PIANNs), is a combination of recurrent neural networks and attention mechanisms. The attention mechanism adapts the behavior of the deep neural network to the non-linear features of the solution, and break the current limitations of PINNs. We find that PIANNs effectively capture the shock front in a hyperbolic model problem, and are capable of providing high-quality solutions inside the convex hull of the training set.

Predicting fault slip via transfer learning

Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly, primarily due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's of years and geophysical data typically exist for only a portion of an earthquake cycle. Sparse data presents a serious challenge to training machine learning models for predicting fault slip in Earth. Here we describe a transfer learning approach using numerical simulations to train a convolutional encoder-decoder that predicts fault-slip behavior in laboratory experiments. The model learns a mapping between acoustic emission and fault friction histories from numerical simulations, and generalizes to produce accurate predictions of laboratory fault friction. Notably, the predictions improve by further training the model latent space using only a portion of data from a single laboratory earthquake-cycle. The transfer learning results elucidate the potential of using models trained on numerical simulations and fine-tuned with small geophysical data sets for potential applications to faults in Earth.