1
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Holbourn A, Kuhnt W, Kulhanek DK, Mountain G, Rosenthal Y, Sagawa T, Lübbers J, Andersen N. Re-organization of Pacific overturning circulation across the Miocene Climate Optimum. Nat Commun 2024; 15:8135. [PMID: 39289389 PMCID: PMC11408672 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52516-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2023] [Accepted: 09/10/2024] [Indexed: 09/19/2024] Open
Abstract
The response of the ocean overturning circulation to global warming remains controversial. Here, we integrate a multiproxy record from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1490 in the western equatorial Pacific with published data from the Pacific, Southern and Indian Oceans to investigate the evolution of deep water circulation during the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO) and Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT). We find that the northward export of southern-sourced deep waters was closely tied to high-latitude climate and Antarctic ice cover variations. Global warming during the MCO drove a progressive decrease in carbonate ion concentration and density stratification, shifting the overturning from intermediate to deeper waters. In the western equatorial Pacific, carbonate dissolution was compensated by increased pelagic productivity, resulting in overall elevated carbonate accumulation rates after ~16 Ma. Stepwise global cooling and Antarctic glacial expansion during the MMCT promoted a gradual improvement in carbonate preservation and the initiation of a near-modern Pacific overturning circulation. We infer that changes in the latitudinal thermal gradient and in Southern Ocean zonal wind stress and upper ocean stratification drove radically different modes of deep water formation and overturning across the MCO and MMCT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ann Holbourn
- Institute of Geosciences, Christian-Albrechts-University, D-24118, Kiel, Germany.
| | - Wolfgang Kuhnt
- Institute of Geosciences, Christian-Albrechts-University, D-24118, Kiel, Germany
| | - Denise K Kulhanek
- Institute of Geosciences, Christian-Albrechts-University, D-24118, Kiel, Germany
| | - Gregory Mountain
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ, USA
| | - Yair Rosenthal
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ, USA
- Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Takuya Sagawa
- Faculty of Geosciences and Civil Engineering, Institute of Science and Engineering, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa, Japan
| | - Julia Lübbers
- Institute of Geosciences, Christian-Albrechts-University, D-24118, Kiel, Germany
- Center for Marine and Environmental Research (CIMA), University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal
| | - Nils Andersen
- Leibniz Laboratory for Radiometric Dating and Stable Isotope Research, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, D-24118, Kiel, Germany
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2
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Basak A, Dana SK, Bairagi N, Feudel U. When do multiple pulses of environmental variation trigger tipping in an ecological system? CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2024; 34:093105. [PMID: 39226474 DOI: 10.1063/5.0205410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2024] [Accepted: 07/29/2024] [Indexed: 09/05/2024]
Abstract
Climate change and anthropogenic impacts have a significant effect on natural ecosystems. As a response, tipping phenomena, i.e., abrupt qualitative changes in the dynamics of ecosystems, like transitions between alternative stable states, can be observed. We study such critical transitions, caused by an interplay between B-tipping, the rate of change of environmental forcing, and a rate-dependent basin boundary crossing. Instead of a slow trend of environmental change, we focus on pulses of variation in the carrying capacity in a simple ecological model, the spruce budworm model, and show how one pulse of environmental change can lead to tracking the current stable state or to tipping to an alternative state depending on the strength and the duration of the pulse. Moreover, we demonstrate that applying a second pulse after the first one, which can track the desired state, can lead to tipping, although its rate is slow and does not even cross the critical threshold. We explain this unexpected behavior in terms of the interacting timescales, the intrinsic ecological timescale, the rate of environmental change, and the movement of the basin boundaries separating the basins of attraction of the two alternative states.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ayanava Basak
- Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India
| | - Syamal K Dana
- Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India
| | - Nandadulal Bairagi
- Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India
| | - Ulrike Feudel
- Theoretical Physics/Complex Systems, ICBM, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
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3
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Möller T, Högner AE, Schleussner CF, Bien S, Kitzmann NH, Lamboll RD, Rogelj J, Donges JF, Rockström J, Wunderling N. Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks. Nat Commun 2024; 15:6192. [PMID: 39090087 PMCID: PMC11294534 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Accepted: 06/21/2024] [Indexed: 08/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10-90% range: 23-71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tessa Möller
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Annika Ernest Högner
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- Geography Department & IRI THESys, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Samuel Bien
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Niklas H Kitzmann
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Robin D Lamboll
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jonathan F Donges
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Johan Rockström
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Nico Wunderling
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
- Center for Critical Computational Studies (C³S), Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
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4
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Lohmann J, Dijkstra HA, Jochum M, Lucarini V, Ditlevsen PD. Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadi4253. [PMID: 38517955 PMCID: PMC10959405 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024]
Abstract
Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johannes Lohmann
- Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Henk A Dijkstra
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Markus Jochum
- Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Valerio Lucarini
- Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Peter D Ditlevsen
- Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
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5
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Haine TWN, Siddiqui AH, Jiang W. Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2023; 381:20220185. [PMID: 37866388 PMCID: PMC10590664 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Accepted: 07/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
Arguably, the most conspicuous evidence for anthropogenic climate change lies in the Arctic Ocean. For example, the summer-time Arctic sea ice extent has declined over the last 40 years and the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage has increased over the last 30 years. Coupled climate models project that this extra freshwater will pass Greenland to enter the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) in the coming decades. Coupled climate models also project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the twenty-first century, associated with SPNA buoyancy increases. Yet, it remains unclear when the Arctic anthropogenic freshening signal will be detected in the SPNA, or what form the signal will take. Therefore, this article reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on Arctic Ocean and SPNA salinity variations and their causes. This article focuses on the export processes in data-constrained ocean circulation model hindcasts. One challenge is to quantify and understand the relative importance of different competing processes. This article also discusses the prospects to detect the emergence of Arctic anthropogenic freshening and the likely impacts on the AMOC. For this issue, the challenge is to distinguish anthropogenic signals from natural variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas W. N. Haine
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Ali H. Siddiqui
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Wenrui Jiang
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
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6
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Ditlevsen P, Ditlevsen S. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nat Commun 2023; 14:4254. [PMID: 37491344 PMCID: PMC10368695 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/27/2023] Open
Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Ditlevsen
- Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | - Susanne Ditlevsen
- Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
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7
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Datseris G, Luiz Rossi K, Wagemakers A. Framework for global stability analysis of dynamical systems. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2023; 33:073151. [PMID: 37499248 DOI: 10.1063/5.0159675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2023] [Accepted: 07/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
Dynamical systems that are used to model power grids, the brain, and other physical systems can exhibit coexisting stable states known as attractors. A powerful tool to understand such systems, as well as to better predict when they may "tip" from one stable state to the other, is global stability analysis. It involves identifying the initial conditions that converge to each attractor, known as the basins of attraction, measuring the relative volume of these basins in state space, and quantifying how these fractions change as a system parameter evolves. By improving existing approaches, we present a comprehensive framework that allows for global stability analysis of dynamical systems. Notably, our framework enables the analysis to be made efficiently and conveniently over a parameter range. As such, it becomes an essential tool for stability analysis of dynamical systems that goes beyond local stability analysis offered by alternative frameworks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of models, including climate, power grids, ecosystems, and more. Our framework is available as simple-to-use open-source code as part of the DynamicalSystems.jl library.
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Affiliation(s)
- George Datseris
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom
| | - Kalel Luiz Rossi
- Theoretical Physics/Complex Systems, ICBM, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Straße 9-11, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Alexandre Wagemakers
- Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos and Complex Systems Group, Departamento de Física, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28933 Móstoles, Madrid, Spain
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8
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Li Q, England MH, Hogg AM, Rintoul SR, Morrison AK. Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater. Nature 2023; 615:841-847. [PMID: 36991191 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-05762-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 03/30/2023]
Abstract
The abyssal ocean circulation is a key component of the global meridional overturning circulation, cycling heat, carbon, oxygen and nutrients throughout the world ocean1,2. The strongest historical trend observed in the abyssal ocean is warming at high southern latitudes2-4, yet it is unclear what processes have driven this warming, and whether this warming is linked to a slowdown in the ocean's overturning circulation. Furthermore, attributing change to specific drivers is difficult owing to limited measurements, and because coupled climate models exhibit biases in the region5-7. In addition, future change remains uncertain, with the latest coordinated climate model projections not accounting for dynamic ice-sheet melt. Here we use a transient forced high-resolution coupled ocean-sea-ice model to show that under a high-emissions scenario, abyssal warming is set to accelerate over the next 30 years. We find that meltwater input around Antarctica drives a contraction of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), opening a pathway that allows warm Circumpolar Deep Water greater access to the continental shelf. The reduction in AABW formation results in warming and ageing of the abyssal ocean, consistent with recent measurements. In contrast, projected wind and thermal forcing has little impact on the properties, age and volume of AABW. These results highlight the critical importance of Antarctic meltwater in setting the abyssal ocean overturning, with implications for global ocean biogeochemistry and climate that could last for centuries.
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9
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Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2104. [PMID: 36747023 PMCID: PMC9902488 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Accepted: 01/24/2023] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) describes the fact that, for multistable dynamic systems, an abrupt transition can take place not only because of the forcing magnitude, but also because of the forcing rate. In the present work, we demonstrate through the case study of a piecewise-linear oscillator (PLO), that increasing the rate of forcing can make the system tip in some cases but might also prevent it from tipping in others. This counterintuitive effect is further called non-monotonous R-tipping (NMRT) and has already been observed in recent studies. We show that, in the present case, the reason for NMRT is the peak synchronisation of oscillatory responses operating on different time scales. We further illustrate that NMRT can be observed even in the presence of additive white noise of intermediate amplitude. Finally, NMRT is also observed on a van-der-Pol oscillator with an unstable limit cycle, suggesting that this effect is not limited to systems with a discontinuous right-hand side such as the PLO. This insight might be highly valuable, as the current research on tipping elements is shifting from an equilibrium to a dynamic perspective while using models of increasing complexity, in which NMRT might be observed but hard to understand.
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10
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Rodal M, Krumscheid S, Madan G, Henry LaCasce J, Vercauteren N. Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2022; 32:113139. [PMID: 36456350 DOI: 10.1063/5.0089694] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Accepted: 11/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. Finally, the indicator is applied to two AMOC time series from a full complexity Earth systems model (CESM2). Compared with the doubling CO scenario, the quadrupling CO scenario results in stronger dynamical instability of the AMOC during its weakening phase.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marie Rodal
- FB Mathematik und Informatik, Freie Universität Berlin, Arnimallee 6, 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Gaurav Madan
- Section for Meteorology and Oceanography, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Blindernveien 31, Kristine Bonnevies hus, 0371 Oslo, Norway
| | - Joseph Henry LaCasce
- Section for Meteorology and Oceanography, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Blindernveien 31, Kristine Bonnevies hus, 0371 Oslo, Norway
| | - Nikki Vercauteren
- Section for Meteorology and Oceanography, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Blindernveien 31, Kristine Bonnevies hus, 0371 Oslo, Norway
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11
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Potential for perceived failure of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2210036119. [PMID: 36166478 PMCID: PMC9546631 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2210036119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
As anthropogenic activities warm the Earth, the fundamental solution of reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains elusive. Given this mitigation gap, global warming may lead to intolerable climate changes as adaptive capacity is exceeded. Thus, there is emerging interest in solar radiation modification, which is the process of deliberately increasing Earth's albedo to cool the planet. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI)-the theoretical deployment of particles in the stratosphere to enhance reflection of incoming solar radiation-is one strategy to slow, pause, or reverse global warming. If SAI is ever pursued, it will likely be for a specific aim, such as affording time to implement mitigation strategies, lessening extremes, or reducing the odds of reaching a biogeophysical tipping point. Using an ensemble climate model experiment that simulates the deployment of SAI in the context of an intermediate greenhouse gas trajectory, we quantified the probability that internal climate variability masks the effectiveness of SAI deployment on regional temperatures. We found that while global temperature was stabilized, substantial land areas continued to experience warming. For example, in the SAI scenario we explored, up to 55% of the global population experienced rising temperatures over the decade following SAI deployment and large areas exhibited high probability of extremely hot years. These conditions could cause SAI to be perceived as a failure. Countries with the largest economies experienced some of the largest probabilities of this perceived failure. The potential for perceived failure could therefore have major implications for policy decisions in the years immediately following SAI deployment.
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12
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Armstrong McKay DI, Staal A, Abrams JF, Winkelmann R, Sakschewski B, Loriani S, Fetzer I, Cornell SE, Rockström J, Lenton TM. Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 2022; 377:eabn7950. [PMID: 36074831 DOI: 10.1126/science.abn7950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 292] [Impact Index Per Article: 146.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- David I Armstrong McKay
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.,Georesilience Analytics, Leatherhead, UK
| | - Arie Staal
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | | | - Sina Loriani
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ingo Fetzer
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sarah E Cornell
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Johan Rockström
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
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13
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Arnscheidt CW, Rothman DH. Rate-induced collapse in evolutionary systems. J R Soc Interface 2022; 19:20220182. [PMID: 35642430 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0182] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent work has highlighted the possibility of 'rate-induced tipping', in which a system undergoes an abrupt transition when a perturbation exceeds a critical rate of change. Here, we argue that this is widely applicable to evolutionary systems: collapse, or extinction, may occur when external changes occur too fast for evolutionary adaptation to keep up. To bridge existing theoretical frameworks, we develop a minimal evolutionary-ecological model showing that rate-induced extinction and the established notion of 'evolutionary rescue' are fundamentally two sides of the same coin: the failure of one implies the other, and vice versa. We compare the minimal model's behaviour with that of a more complex model in which the large-scale dynamics emerge from the interactions of many individual agents; in both cases, there is a well-defined threshold rate to induce extinction, and a consistent scaling law for that rate as a function of timescale. Due to the fundamental nature of the underlying mechanism, we suggest that a vast range of evolutionary systems should in principle be susceptible to rate-induced collapse. This would include ecosystems on all scales as well as human societies; further research is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Constantin W Arnscheidt
- Lorenz Center, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Daniel H Rothman
- Lorenz Center, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
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14
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Zhang X, Xu Y, Liu Q, Kurths J, Grebogi C. Rate-dependent tipping and early warning in a thermoacoustic system under extreme operating environment. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2021; 31:113115. [PMID: 34881611 DOI: 10.1063/5.0071977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2021] [Accepted: 10/16/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Thermoacoustic instability has been an important challenge in the development of high-performance combustion systems, as it can have catastrophic consequences. The process of a sudden change in the dynamical behavior of a thermoacoustic system from a low- to high-amplitude thermoacoustic instability actually entails as a tipping point phenomenon. It has been found that when rate-dependent parameters are considered, a tipping-delay phenomenon may arise, which helps in the control of undesirable states that give rise to thermoacoustic instabilities. This work aims at understanding rate-dependent tipping dynamics of the thermoacoustic system with both time-varying parameters and a non-Gaussian Lévy noise. The latter better describes the severe operating environment of such systems than simpler types of noise. Through numerical simulations, the tipping dynamical behavior is analyzed by considering the rate-dependent parameters coupled with the main parameters of the Lévy noise, including the stability and skewness indices and the noise intensity. In addition, we investigate the effectiveness of early warning indicators in rate-dependent systems under Lévy noise excitation and uncover a relationship between warning measures and the rate of change in the parameters. These results inform and enlighten the development and design of power combustion devices and also provide researchers and engineers with effective ideas to control thermoacoustic instability and the associated tipping dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoyu Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China
| | - Yong Xu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China
| | - Qi Liu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China
| | - Jürgen Kurths
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
| | - Celso Grebogi
- Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, School of Natural and Computing Sciences, King's College, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UE, United Kingdom
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15
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Rietkerk M, Bastiaansen R, Banerjee S, van de Koppel J, Baudena M, Doelman A. Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation. Science 2021; 374:eabj0359. [PMID: 34618584 DOI: 10.1126/science.abj0359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
[Figure: see text].
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Affiliation(s)
- Max Rietkerk
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Robbin Bastiaansen
- Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3508 TA, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Swarnendu Banerjee
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, Netherlands.,The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, CIT Campus, Taramani, Chennai 600113, India.,Indian Statistical Institute, Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Kolkata 700108, India
| | - Johan van de Koppel
- Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, 4400 AC, Yerseke, Netherlands.,Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, Conservation Ecology Group, University of Groningen, 9700 CC, Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Mara Baudena
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, Netherlands.,National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), 10133 Torino, Italy
| | - Arjen Doelman
- Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, 2300 RA, Leiden, Netherlands
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16
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Alkhayuon H, Tyson RC, Wieczorek S. Phase tipping: how cyclic ecosystems respond to contemporary climate. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2021; 477:20210059. [PMID: 35153584 PMCID: PMC8511773 DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 09/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces tipping from a predator–prey cycle to extinction in two paradigmatic predator–prey models with an Allee effect. Our analysis of these examples uncovers a counterintuitive behaviour, which we call phase tipping or P-tipping, where tipping to extinction occurs only from certain phases of the cycle. To explain this behaviour, we combine global dynamics with set theory and introduce the concept of partial basin instability for attracting limit cycles. This concept provides a general framework to analyse and identify easily testable criteria for the occurrence of phase tipping in externally forced systems, and can be extended to more complicated attractors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hassan Alkhayuon
- University College Cork, School of Mathematical Sciences, Western Road, Cork T12 XF62, Ireland
| | - Rebecca C Tyson
- CMPS Department (Mathematics), University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Sebastian Wieczorek
- University College Cork, School of Mathematical Sciences, Western Road, Cork T12 XF62, Ireland
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