Growth, death, and resource competition in sessile organisms

Idea engines: Unifying innovation & obsolescence from markets & genetic evolution to science

Innovation and obsolescence describe dynamics of ever-churning and adapting social and biological systems, concepts that encompass field-specific formulations. We formalize the connection with a reduced model of the dynamics of the "space of the possible" (e.g., technologies, mutations, theories) to which agents (e.g., firms, organisms, scientists) couple as they grow, die, and replicate. We predict three regimes: The space is finite, ever growing, or a Schumpeterian dystopia in which obsolescence drives the system to collapse. We reveal a critical boundary at which the space of the possible fluctuates dramatically in size, displaying recurrent periods of minimal and of veritable diversity. When the space is finite, corresponding to physically realizable systems, we find surprising structure. This structure predicts a taxonomy for the density of agents near and away from the innovative frontier that we compare with distributions of firm productivity, COVID diversity, and citation rates for scientific publications. Our minimal model derived from first principles aligns with empirical examples, implying a follow-the-leader dynamic in firm cost efficiency and biological evolution, whereas scientific progress reflects consensus that waits on old ideas to go obsolete. Our theory introduces a fresh and empirically testable framework for unifying innovation and obsolescence across fields.

Smaller is better in competition for space

Body size is a prominent morphological trait which affects many aspects of an organism's life. Although large body size is generally considered to be advantageous, ecologists have wondered about the benefits of being small. Many studies of body size depend on the metabolic theory of ecology since body size is an irremovable part of an organism's energy budget. Body size is also a spatial quantity and therefore is linked to spatial processes. Here, I show that competition for space leads to a benefit of being small and hence selects for increasingly smaller body size. I build a deterministic population dynamics model and a stochastic model of birth, death and dispersal in a population of individuals with two different body sizes and show that only the smaller individuals survive. I also extend the population dynamics model to continuously varying body sizes and include a stabilizing natural selection for an intermediate body size. I find that the intrinsic advantage of smaller body size in competition for space can only be overcome when natural selection for a large body size is sufficiently strong. Overall, my results point to a novel benefit of being small.

Metabolic activity grows in human cancers pushed by phenotypic variability

Different evolutionary processes push cancers to increasingly aggressive behaviors, energetically sustained by metabolic reprogramming. The collective signature emerging from this transition is macroscopically displayed by positron emission tomography (PET). In fact, the most readily PET measure, the maximum standardized uptake value (SUV_max), has been found to have prognostic value in different cancers. However, few works have linked the properties of this metabolic hotspot to cancer evolutionary dynamics. Here, by analyzing diagnostic PET images from 512 patients with cancer, we found that SUV_max scales superlinearly with the mean metabolic activity (SUV_mean), reflecting a dynamic preferential accumulation of activity on the hotspot. Additionally, SUV_max increased with metabolic tumor volume (MTV) following a power law. The behavior from the patients data was accurately captured by a mechanistic evolutionary dynamics model of tumor growth accounting for phenotypic transitions. This suggests that non-genetic changes may suffice to fuel the observed sustained increases in tumor metabolic activity.

Persistence of a sessile benthic organism promoted by a morphological strategy combining sheets and trees

Sessile organisms exploit a life-history strategy in which adults are immobile and their growth position is determined at settlement. The morphological strategy exploited by these organisms has strong selective value, because it can allow beneficial matching of morphology to environmental and biological conditions. In benthic marine environments, a 'sheet-tree' morphology is a classic mechanism exploited by select sessile organisms, and milleporine hydrocorals provide one of the best examples of this strategy. Using 30-year analysis of Millepora sp. on the reefs of St. John, US Virgin Islands, I tested for the benefits of a sheet-tree morphology in mediating the ecological success of an important functional group of benthic space holders. The abundance of Millepora sp. chaotically changed from 1992 to 2021 in concert with hurricanes, bleaching and macroalgal crowding. Millepora sp. responded to these disturbances by exploiting their morphological strategy to increase the use of trees when their sheets were compromised by bleaching and spatial competition with macroalgae, and the use of sheets when their trees were broken by storms. Together, these results reveal the selective value of a plastic sheet-tree morphology, which can be exploited by sessile organisms to respond to decadal-scale variation in environmental conditions.

Spatial patterns in ecological systems: from microbial colonies to landscapes

Self-organized spatial patterns are ubiquitous in ecological systems and allow populations to adopt non-trivial spatial distributions starting from disordered configurations. These patterns form due to diverse nonlinear interactions among organisms and between organisms and their environment, and lead to the emergence of new (eco)system-level properties unique to self-organized systems. Such pattern consequences include higher resilience and resistance to environmental changes, abrupt ecosystem collapse, hysteresis loops, and reversal of competitive exclusion. Here, we review ecological systems exhibiting self-organized patterns. We establish two broad pattern categories depending on whether the self-organizing process is primarily driven by nonlinear density-dependent demographic rates or by nonlinear density-dependent movement. Using this organization, we examine a wide range of observational scales, from microbial colonies to whole ecosystems, and discuss the mechanisms hypothesized to underlie observed patterns and their system-level consequences. For each example, we review both the empirical evidence and the existing theoretical frameworks developed to identify the causes and consequences of patterning. Finally, we trace qualitative similarities across systems and propose possible ways of developing a more quantitative understanding of how self-organization operates across systems and observational scales in ecology.