Woody species do not differ in dormancy progression: Differences in time to budbreak due to forcing and cold hardiness

Time to budbreak is not enough: cold hardiness evaluation is necessary in dormancy and spring phenology studies

BACKGROUND

Dormancy of buds is an important phase in the life cycle of perennial plants growing in environments where unsuitable growth conditions occur seasonally. In regions where low temperature defines these unsuitable conditions, the attainment of cold hardiness is also required for survival. The end of the dormant period culminates in budbreak and flower emergence, or spring phenology, one of the most appreciated and studied phenological events - a time also understood to be most sensitive to low-temperature damage. Despite this, we have a limited physiological and molecular understanding of dormancy, which has negatively affected our ability to model budbreak. This is also true for cold hardiness.

SCOPE

Here we highlight the importance of including cold hardiness in dormancy studies that typically only characterize time to budbreak. We show how different temperature treatments may lead to increases in cold hardiness, and by doing so also (potentially inadvertently) increase time to budbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a theory that describes evaluation of cold hardiness as being key to clarifying physiological changes throughout the dormant period, delineating dormancy statuses, and improving both chill and phenology models. Erroneous interpretations of budbreak datasets are possible by not phenotyping cold hardiness. Changes in cold hardiness were very probably present in previous experiments that studied dormancy, especially when those included below-freezing temperature treatments. Separating the effects between chilling accumulation and cold acclimation in future studies will be essential for increasing our understanding of dormancy and spring phenology in plants.

NYUS.2: an automated machine learning prediction model for the large-scale real-time simulation of grapevine freezing tolerance in North America

Accurate and real-time monitoring of grapevine freezing tolerance is crucial for the sustainability of the grape industry in cool climate viticultural regions. However, on-site data are limited due to the complexity of measurement. Current prediction models underperform under diverse climate conditions, which limits the large-scale deployment of these methods. We combined grapevine freezing tolerance data from multiple regions in North America and generated a predictive model based on hourly temperature-derived features and cultivar features using AutoGluon, an automated machine learning engine. Feature importance was quantified by AutoGluon and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) value. The final model was evaluated and compared with previous models for its performance under different climate conditions. The final model achieved an overall 1.36°C root-mean-square error during model testing and outperformed two previous models using three test cultivars at all testing regions. Two feature importance quantification methods identified five shared essential features. Detailed analysis of the features indicates that the model has adequately extracted some biological mechanisms during training. The final model, named NYUS.2, was deployed along with two previous models as an R shiny-based application in the 2022-23 dormancy season, enabling large-scale and real-time simulation of grapevine freezing tolerance in North America for the first time.

Optimized differential thermal analysis sheds light on the effect of temperature on peach floral bud cold hardiness and transition from endo- to ecodormancy

The greatest threat to profitable peach production is cold damage to reproductive tissues. To better understand and mitigate cold damage in peach accurate and efficient assessment of floral bud cold hardiness (Hc) is critical. Differential thermal analysis (DTA) was optimized for efficient and precise detection of low-temperature exotherms (LTE) created by the freezing of supercooled intracellular water in peach floral primordia to determine Hc weekly during the dormant season. DTA-estimated lethal temperatures (LT) were validated against the standard oxidative browning method (OB) and in situ field damage following three freezing events. Chilling (0-7.2 °C) accumulation tracked throughout the dormant season to determine DTA-related changes across dormancy phase transitions. LTEs showed rapid acclimation of 'Redhaven' peach floral buds following the first frost of the dormant season (Tmin=-6.8 °C on November 18, 2016) and maintained similar Hc levels for 45 days through maximum Hc (LT50 =-23.9 °C recorded on January 9, 2017) and until the accumulation of 868 chilling hours was reached. Following this milestone, a significant 55% loss of LTEs upon the accumulation of the first growing degree day (Tbase=7 °C) was recoded on February 7, 2017. An LTE recovery approach, pre-exposing buds to a non-freezing low temperature (-2°C) for a period of 12 h, more than doubled the number of LTEs detected for another 27 days extending DTA use for LT prediction. The results presented herein confirm that the use of DTA is efficient and accurate to determine Hc in peach floral buds, and suggest that the LTE loss in early spring may be a signature response related to the shift from endo- into ecodormancy following two environmental temperature cues, chilling satisfaction and the first heat accumulation post chilling satisfaction.

Phenological physiology: seasonal patterns of plant stress tolerance in a changing climate

The physiological challenges posed by climate change for seasonal, perennial plants include increased risk of heat waves, postbudbreak freezing ('false springs'), and droughts. Although considerable physiological work has shown that the traits conferring tolerance to these stressors - thermotolerance, cold hardiness, and water deficit stress, respectively - are not static in time, they are frequently treated as such. In this review, I synthesize the recent literature on predictable seasonal - and therefore, phenological - patterns of acclimation and deacclimation to heat, cold, and water-deficit stress in perennials, focusing on woody plants native to temperate climates. I highlight promising, high-throughput techniques for quantifying thermotolerance, cold hardiness, and drought tolerance. For each of these forms of stress tolerance, I summarize the current balance of evidence regarding temporal patterns over the course of a year and suggest a characteristic temporal scale in these responses to environmental stress. In doing so, I offer a synthetic framework of 'phenological physiology', in which understanding and leveraging seasonally recurring (phenological) patterns of physiological stress acclimation can facilitate climate change adaptation and mitigation.

The early bud gets the cold: Diverging spring phenology drives exposure to late frost in a Picea mariana [(Mill.) BSP] common garden

Under climate change, the increasing occurrence of late frost combined with advancing spring phenology can increase the risk of frost damage in trees. In this study, we tested the link between intra-specific variability in bud phenology and frost exposure and damages. We analysed the effects of the 2021 late frost event in a black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) common garden in Québec, Canada. We hypothesised that the timing of budbreak drives the exposure of vulnerable tissues and explains differences in frost damage. Budbreak was monitored from 2015 to 2021 in 371 trees from five provenances originating between 48° and 53° N and planted in a common garden at 48° N. Frost damages were assessed on the same trees through the proportion of damaged buds per tree and related to the phenological phases by ordinal regressions. After an unusually warm spring, minimum temperatures fell to -1.9°C on May 28 and 29, 2021. At this moment, trees from the northern provenances were more advanced in their phenology and showed more frost damage. Provenances with earlier budbreak had a higher probability of damage occurrence according to ordinal regression. Our study highlights the importance of intra-specific variability of phenological traits on the risk of frost exposure. We provide evidence that the timings of bud phenology affect sensitivity to frost, leading to damages at temperatures of -1.9°C. Under the same conditions, the earlier growth reactivation observed in the northern provenances increases the risks of late frost damage on the developing buds.