Mapped coral mortality and refugia in an archipelago-scale marine heat wave

Corals that survive repeated thermal stress show signs of selection and acclimatization

Climate change is transforming coral reefs by increasing the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves, often leading to coral bleaching and mortality. Coral communities have demonstrated modest increases in thermal tolerance following repeated exposure to moderate heat stress, but it is unclear whether these shifts represent acclimatization of individual colonies or mortality of thermally susceptible individuals. For corals that survive repeated bleaching events, it is important to understand how past bleaching responses impact future growth potential. Here, we track the bleaching responses of 1,832 corals in leeward Maui through multiple marine heatwaves and document patterns of coral growth and survivorship over a seven-year period. While we find limited evidence of acclimatization at population scales, we document reduced bleaching over time in specific individuals that is indicative of acclimatization, primarily in the stress-tolerant taxa Porites lobata. For corals that survived both bleaching events, we find no relationship between bleaching response and coral growth in three of four taxa studied. This decoupling suggests that coral survivorship is a better indicator of future growth than is a coral's bleaching history. Based on these results, we recommend restoration practitioners in Hawai'i focus on colonies of Porites and Montipora with a proven track-record of growth and survivorship, rather than devote resources toward identifying and cultivating bleaching-resistant phenotypes in the lab. Survivorship followed a latitudinal thermal stress gradient, but because this gradient was small, it is likely that local environmental factors also drove differences in coral performance between sites. Efforts to reduce human impacts at low performing sites would likely improve coral survivorship in the future.

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

The effect of reef morphology on coral recruitment at multiple spatial scales

Coral reefs are in decline worldwide, making it increasingly important to promote coral recruitment in new or degraded habitat. Coral reef morphology-the structural form of reef substrate-affects many aspects of reef function, yet the effect of reef morphology on coral recruitment is not well understood. We used structure-from-motion photogrammetry and airborne remote sensing to measure reef morphology (rugosity, curvature, slope, and fractal dimension) across a broad continuum of spatial scales and evaluated the effect of morphology on coral recruitment in three broadcast-spawning genera. We also measured the effect of other environmental and biotic factors such as fish density, adult coral cover, hydrodynamic larval import, and depth on coral recruitment. All variables combined explained 72% of coral recruitment in the study region. Coarse reef rugosity and curvature mapped at ≥2 m spatial resolution-such as large colonies, knolls, and boulders-were positively correlated with coral recruitment, explaining 22% of variation in recruitment. Morphology mapped at finer scales (≤32 cm resolution) was not significant. Hydrodynamic larval import was also positively related to coral recruitment in Porites and Montipora spp., and grazer fish density was linked to significantly lower recruitment in all genera. In addition, grazer density, reef morphology, and hydrodynamic import had differential effects on coral genera, reflecting genus-specific life history traits, and model performance was lower in gonochoric species. Overall, coral reef morphology is a key indicator of recruitment potential that can be detected by remote sensing, allowing potential larval sinks to be identified and factored into restoration actions.

Coral reefs benefit from reduced land-sea impacts under ocean warming

Coral reef ecosystems are being fundamentally restructured by local human impacts and climate-driven marine heatwaves that trigger mass coral bleaching and mortality1. Reducing local impacts can increase reef resistance to and recovery from bleaching2. However, resource managers lack clear advice on targeted actions that best support coral reefs under climate change3 and sector-based governance means most land- and sea-based management efforts remain siloed4. Here we combine surveys of reef change with a unique 20-year time series of land-sea human impacts that encompassed an unprecedented marine heatwave in Hawai'i. Reefs with increased herbivorous fish populations and reduced land-based impacts, such as wastewater pollution and urban runoff, had positive coral cover trajectories predisturbance. These reefs also experienced a modest reduction in coral mortality following severe heat stress compared to reefs with reduced fish populations and enhanced land-based impacts. Scenario modelling indicated that simultaneously reducing land-sea human impacts results in a three- to sixfold greater probability of a reef having high reef-builder cover four years postdisturbance than if either occurred in isolation. International efforts to protect 30% of Earth's land and ocean ecosystems by 2030 are underway5. Our results reveal that integrated land-sea management could help achieve coastal ocean conservation goals and provide coral reefs with the best opportunity to persist in our changing climate.

Toward a New Era of Coral Reef Monitoring

Coral reefs host some of the highest concentrations of biodiversity and economic value in the oceans, yet these ecosystems are under threat due to climate change and other human impacts. Reef monitoring is routinely used to help prioritize reefs for conservation and evaluate the success of intervention efforts. Reef status and health are most frequently characterized using diver-based surveys, but the inherent limitations of these methods mean there is a growing need for advanced, standardized, and automated reef techniques that capture the complex nature of the ecosystem. Here we draw on experiences from our own interdisciplinary research programs to describe advances in in situ diver-based and autonomous reef monitoring. We present our vision for integrating interdisciplinary measurements for select "case-study" reefs worldwide and for learning patterns within the biological, physical, and chemical reef components and their interactions. Ultimately, these efforts could support the development of a scalable and standardized suite of sensors that capture and relay key data to assist in categorizing reef health. This framework has the potential to provide stakeholders with the information necessary to assess reef health during an unprecedented time of reef change as well as restoration and intervention activities.