Climate change, human health, and resilience in the Holocene

High prevalence of adult and nonadult scurvy in an early agricultural transition site from Mainland Southeast Asia was associated with decreased survivorship

OBJECTIVES

The osteological paradox recognizes that the presence of lesions is not always directly related with increased mortality. When combined with the clinical, historical, and epidemiological literature on scurvy, survivorship analysis, a form of statistical analysis to assess the relationship between the presence of diseases in the archeological record and survival, helps determine the overall burden of the disease both in terms of morbidity and mortality. This article explores the relationship between scurvy and survivorship in 26 adults from Man Bac, a Neolithic site from northern Vietnam together with prepublished evidence of scurvy in the nonadult population (n = 44).

METHODS

Diagnosis of scurvy included differential diagnosis combined with the Snoddy, A. M. E., Buckley, H. R., Elliott, G. E., Standen, V. G., Arriaza, B. T., & Halcrow, S. E. (2018). Macroscopic features of scurvy in human skeletal remains: A literature synthesis and diagnostic guide. American Journal of Physical Anthropology, 167(4), 876-895. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajpa.23699 threshold criteria and the Brickley, M. B., & Morgan, B. (2023). Assessing diagnostic certainty for scurvy and rickets in human skeletal remains. American Journal of Biological Anthropology, 181, 637-645 diagnostic certainty approaches. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were produced to assess the relationship between the presence of probable scurvy and age-at-death.

RESULTS

The prevalence of probable scurvy in adults (35%) was considerably lower than reported for the nonadults (80%). Almost all lesions observed in the adults were in a mixed stage of healing. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated no difference in survivorship between infants and children (<15 years) with or without probable scurvy, whereas a meaningful difference was observed for the adults and adolescents (15+ years).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings demonstrate that scurvy considerably decreased survivorship to older age categories. The degree of lesion remodeling, however, indicates that scurvy was not necessarily the direct cause of death but contributed to an overall disease burden that was ultimately fatal.

Impact of climate change on the future distribution of three Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model

The decline of habitats supporting medicinal plants is a consequence of climate change and human activities. In the Middle East, Ferulago angulata, Ferulago carduchorum, and Ferulago phialocarpa are widely recognized for their culinary, medicinal, and economic value. Therefore, this study models these Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the most important bioclimatic (n = 6), edaphic (n = 4), and topographic (n = 3) variables influencing their distribution and predict changes under various climate scenarios. Findings reveal slope percentage as the most significant variable for F. angulata and F. carduchorum, while solar radiation was the primary variable for F. phialocarpa. MaxEnt modeling demonstrated good to excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve values exceeding 0.85. Projections suggest negative area changes for F. angulata and F. carduchorum (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 indicate -34.0% and -37.8% for F. phialocarpa, and -0.3% and -6.2% for F. carduchorum; additionally, predictions under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 show -39.0% and -52.2% for F. phialocarpa, and -1.33% and -9.8% for F. carduchorum), while for F. phialocarpa, a potential habitat increase (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 23.4% and 11.2%, and under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 64.4% and 42.1%) is anticipated. These insights guide adaptive management strategies, emphasizing conservation and sustainable use amid global climate change. Special attention should be paid to F. angulata and F. carduchorum due to anticipated habitat loss. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1046-1059. © 2024 SETAC.

Frequent disturbances enhanced the resilience of past human populations

The record of past human adaptations provides crucial lessons for guiding responses to crises in the future1-3. To date, there have been no systematic global comparisons of humans' ability to absorb and recover from disturbances through time4,5. Here we synthesized resilience across a broad sample of prehistoric population time-frequency data, spanning 30,000 years of human history. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of population decline show that frequent disturbances enhance a population's capacity to resist and recover from later downturns. Land-use patterns are important mediators of the strength of this positive association: farming and herding societies are more vulnerable but also more resilient overall. The results show that important trade-offs exist when adopting new or alternative land-use strategies.

Pathogen prospecting of museums: Reconstructing malaria epidemiology

Malaria is a disease of global significance. Ongoing changes to the earth's climate, antimalarial resistance, insecticide resistance, and socioeconomic decline test the resilience of malaria prevention programs. Museum insect specimens present an untapped resource for studying vector-borne pathogens, spurring the question: Do historical mosquito collections contain Plasmodium DNA, and, if so, can museum specimens be used to reconstruct the historical epidemiology of malaria? In this Perspective, we explore molecular techniques practical to pathogen prospecting, which, more broadly, we define as the science of screening entomological museum specimens for human, animal, or plant pathogens. Historical DNA and pathogen prospecting provide a means of describing the coevolution of human, vector, and parasite, informing the development of insecticides, diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines.

Health equity in pediatrics: Current concepts for the care of children in the 21st century (Dis Mon)

This is an analysis of important aspects of health equity in caring for children and adolescents written by a multidisciplinary team from different medical centers. In this discussion for clinicians, we look at definitions of pediatric health equity and the enormous impact of social determinants of health in this area. Factors involved with pediatric healthcare disparities that are considered include race, ethnicity, gender, age, poverty, socioeconomic status, LGBT status, living in rural communities, housing instability, food insecurity, access to transportation, availability of healthcare professionals, the status of education, and employment as well as immigration. Additional issues involved with health equity in pediatrics that are reviewed will include the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, behavioral health concepts, and the negative health effects of climate change. Recommendations that are presented include reflection of one's own attitudes on as well as an understanding of these topics, consideration of the role of various healthcare providers (i.e., community health workers, peer health navigators, others), the impact of behavioral health integration, and the need for well-conceived curricula as well as multi-faceted training programs in pediatric health equity at the undergraduate and postgraduate medical education levels. Furthermore, ongoing research in pediatric health equity is needed to scrutinize current concepts and stimulate the development of ideas with an ever-greater positive influence on the health of our beloved children. Clinicians caring for children can serve as champions for the optimal health of children and their families; in addition, these healthcare professionals are uniquely positioned in their daily work to understand the drivers of health inequities and to be advocates for optimal health equity in the 21st century for all children and adolescents.

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social-ecological transformations

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes-the Anthropocene condition-is not new. From food-producing hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social-ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of 'runaway sociocultural niche construction'. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth's most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

The influence of environment and Earnings on Prolonged existence and human fertility: A Deeper Dive into Asia's environmentally vulnerable nations

This study inspects the impact of environmental deterioration and income on longevity and fertility in Asian countries, specifically the nations that are highly vulnerable to extreme weather. The study examines the data, covering two decades from 2000 to 2019. The empirical conclusions of the panel ARDL-PMG and the CS-ARDL econometric models indicate that environmental degradation leads to a decline in birth rate and life expectancy, while a rising income has a significant influence over longevity. However, increasing per capita income alone cannot solve the problem of population crisis in climatically susceptible countries. Therefore, the sample countries must prioritize climate action and formulate climate-resilient policies to add more years to the lives of their citizens. Similarly, for increasing childbirth the sample nations need to make peace with nature. The outcomes of this study are strong enough, as both the models support each other's findings, producing similar significant outcomes.

Climate change and long-term human behaviour in the Neotropics: an archaeological view from the Global South

In this paper, we argue for the inclusion of archaeology in discussions about how humans have contributed to and dealt with climate change, especially in the long term. We suggest Niche Construction Theory as a suitable framework to that end. In order to take into account both human and environmental variability, we also advocate for a situated perspective that includes the Global South as a source of knowledge production, and the Neotropics as a relevant case study to consider. To illustrate this, we review the mid-Holocene Hypsithermal period in the southern Puna and continental Patagonia, both in southern South America, by assessing the challenges posed by this climate period and the archaeological signatures of the time from a Niche Construction Theory perspective. Finally, we emphasize the importance of these considerations for policymaking. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.