Spatial Modelling of Concentration in Topsoil Using Random and Systematic Uncertainty Components: Comparison against Established Techniques

Estimation and usefulness of measurement uncertainty from sampling at different spatial scales: microns to kilometres

Uncertainty of measurement values (MU) is crucial to their reliable geochemical interpretation. MU can be estimated using the Duplicate Method, which requires the taking of a small proportion of duplicated samples, and can be applied at any spatial scale. The distance between the duplicated samples is selected to reflect the effect of analyte heterogeneity on the measurement result (i.e. estimated concentration) within each sampling target, at the particular scale of investigation. Three published case studies, at different spatial scales, are used to explain how the Duplicate Method can be applied to estimate MU. They also illustrate how MU can be used to improve geochemical interpretation and validate measurement procedures (that include sampling) by judging their fitness for purpose. At the kilometre scale, measurements from the GEMAS survey of agricultural soils across Europe are used to estimate their MU for the first time. The MU for 53 elements range from an uncertainty factor of 1.01 to over 10. The MU contributes more that 20% to the total variance for 8 of the 53 elements, showing that the measurement procedure was not fit for purpose in those cases. At the micron scale, measurements of oxygen isotopes in candidate quartz reference materials had MU that was dominated by its sampling component, caused by sometimes unacceptable heterogeneity. A third case study of Pb in soils at 12 UK sites showed that the Duplicate Method can also be used to quantify the heterogeneity (as factor 1.03 to 2.4), and that it can indicate different possible sources of an element.

Determination of microplastic contamination levels and trends in vast oceanic sediment areas with uncertainty

Small plastic particles, designated as microplastics, are known vehicles of several contaminants desorbed from their surface after being ingested by marine organisms. The monitoring of the levels and trends of microplastics in oceanic areas is essential to identify relevant threats and respective sources whose management should be improved to protect the environmental resources. However, the assessment of contamination trends in large oceanic areas is affected by contamination heterogeneity, sampling representativeness, and the uncertainty of collected sample analyses. Only contamination variations not justifiable by system heterogeneity and their characterisation uncertainty are meaningful and should be taken seriously by the authorities. This work describes a novel methodology for the objective identification of meaningful variation of microplastic contamination in vast oceanic areas by the Monte Carlo simulation of all uncertainty components. This tool was successfully applied to the monitoring of the levels and trends of microplastic contamination in sediments from a 700 km² oceanic area from 3 km to 20 km offshore Sesimbra and Sines (Portugal). This work allowed concluding that contamination has not varied between 2018 and 2019 (difference of mean total microplastic contamination between -40 kg^-1 and 34 kg^-1) but that microparticles made of PET are the major type of studied microplastics (in 2019, mean contamination is between 36 kg^-1 and 85 kg^-1). All assessments were performed for a 99 % confidence level.

Bottom-Up Evaluation of the Uncertainty of the Quantification of Microplastics Contamination in Sediment Samples

The quantification and comparison of microplastic contamination of sediments are affected by sample heterogeneity and the systematic and random effects affecting sample analysis. The quantification and combination of these components in the measurement uncertainty allows the objective interpretation of analysis results. This work presents the first detailed evaluation of the uncertainty of microplastic contamination quantification in sediments. The random and systematic effects affecting microplastic counts are modeled by the Poisson-lognormal distribution with inputs estimated from duplicate sediment analysis and the analysis of sediments spiked with microparticles. The uncertainty from particle counting was combined with the uncertainty from the determination of the dry mass of the analytical portion by the Monte Carlo method. The developed methodology was implemented in a user-friendly spreadsheet made available as the Supporting Information. The contamination of sediment samples collected in various inland Portuguese waters was determined, ranging from [0; 160] to [361; 2932] kg^-1 for a 99% confidence level, and compared by assessing if the difference between contamination levels is equivalent to zero for the same confidence level. Several samples proved to have metrologically different microplastic contamination. This work represents a contribution to the objectivity of the assessment of environmental contamination with microplastics.