Clinical and biological evolution of human trypanosomiasis in Côte d'Ivoire

Modelling timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accounting for possible cryptic human and animal transmission

BACKGROUND

Sleeping sickness (gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, gHAT) is a vector-borne disease targeted for global elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. There are, however, unknowns that have the potential to hinder the achievement and measurement of this goal. These include asymptomatic gHAT infections (inclusive of the potential to self-cure or harbour skin-only infections) and whether gHAT infection in animals can contribute to the transmission cycle in humans.

METHODS

Using modelling, we explore how cryptic (undetected) transmission impacts the monitoring of progress towards and the achievement of the EoT goal. We have developed gHAT models that include either asymptomatic or animal transmission, and compare these to a baseline gHAT model without either of these transmission routes, to explore the potential role of cryptic infections on the EoT goal. Each model was independently calibrated to five different health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) using available historical human case data for 2000-2020 (obtained from the World Health Organization's HAT Atlas). We applied a novel Bayesian sequential updating approach for the asymptomatic model to enable us to combine statistical information about this type of transmission from each health zone.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that, when matched to past case data, we estimated similar numbers of new human infections between model variants, although human infections were slightly higher in the models with cryptic infections. We simulated the continuation of screen-confirm-and-treat interventions, and found that forward projections from the animal and asymptomatic transmission models produced lower probabilities of EoT than the baseline model; however, cryptic infections did not prevent EoT from being achieved eventually under this approach.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to simulate an (as-yet-to-be available) screen-and-treat strategy and found that removing a parasitological confirmation step was predicted to have a more noticeable benefit to transmission reduction under the asymptomatic model compared with the others. Our simulations suggest vector control could greatly impact all transmission routes in all models, although this resource-intensive intervention should be carefully prioritised.

Modelling to explore the potential impact of asymptomatic human infections on transmission and dynamics of African sleeping sickness

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT, sleeping sickness) is one of several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) where there is evidence of asymptomatic human infection but there is uncertainty of the role it plays in transmission and maintenance. To explore possible consequences of asymptomatic infections, particularly in the context of elimination of transmission—a goal set to be achieved by 2030—we propose a novel dynamic transmission model to account for the asymptomatic population. This extends an established framework, basing infection progression on a number of experimental and observation gHAT studies. Asymptomatic gHAT infections include those in people with blood-dwelling trypanosomes, but no discernible symptoms, or those with parasites only detectable in skin. Given current protocols, asymptomatic infection with blood parasites may be diagnosed and treated, based on observable parasitaemia, in contrast to many other diseases for which treatment (and/or diagnosis) may be based on symptomatic infection. We construct a model in which exposed people can either progress to either asymptomatic skin-only parasite infection, which would not be diagnosed through active screening algorithms, or blood-parasite infection, which is likely to be diagnosed if tested. We add extra parameters to the baseline model including different self-cure, recovery, transmission and detection rates for skin-only or blood infections. Performing sensitivity analysis suggests all the new parameters introduced in the asymptomatic model can impact the infection dynamics substantially. Among them, the proportion of exposures resulting in initial skin or blood infection appears the most influential parameter. For some plausible parameterisations, an initial fall in infection prevalence due to interventions could subsequently stagnate even under continued screening due to the formation of a new, lower endemic equilibrium. Excluding this scenario, our results still highlight the possibility for asymptomatic infection to slow down progress towards elimination of transmission. Location-specific model fitting will be needed to determine if and where this could pose a threat.

Gambiense African sleeping sickness is an infectious disease targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. Despite this there is still some uncertainty how frequently some infected people who may not have symptoms could “self-cure” without ever having disease and whether some types of infections, such as infections only in the skin, but not the blood, could still contribute to transmission, yet go undiagnosed. To explore how problematic these asymptomatic infections could be in terms of the elimination goal, we use a mathematical model which quantitatively describes changes to infection and transmission over time and includes these different types of infection. We use results of published experimental or field studies as inputs for the model parameters governing asymptomatic infections. We examined the impact of asymptomatic infections when control interventions are put in place. Compared to a baseline model with no asymptomatics, including asymptomatic infection using plausible biological parameters can have a profound impact on transmission and slow progress towards elimination. In some instances it could be possible that even after initial decline in sleeping sickness cases, progress could stagnate without reaching the elimination goal at all, however location-specific modelling will be needed to determine if and where this could pose a threat.

Untreated human infections by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense are not 100% fatal

The final outcome of infection by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, the main agent of sleeping sickness, has always been considered as invariably fatal. While scarce and old reports have mentioned cases of self-cure in untreated patients, these studies suffered from the lack of accurate diagnostic tools available at that time. Here, using the most specific and sensitive tools available to date, we report on a long-term follow-up (15 years) of a cohort of 50 human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) patients from the Ivory Coast among whom 11 refused treatment after their initial diagnosis. In 10 out of 11 subjects who continued to refuse treatment despite repeated visits, parasite clearance was observed using both microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Most of these subjects (7/10) also displayed decreasing serological responses, becoming progressively negative to trypanosome variable antigens (LiTat 1.3, 1.5 and 1.6). Hence, in addition to the “classic” lethal outcome of HAT, we show that alternative natural progressions of HAT may occur: progression to an apparently aparasitaemic and asymptomatic infection associated with strong long-lasting serological responses and progression to an apparently spontaneous resolution of infection (with negative results in parasitological tests and PCR) associated with a progressive drop in antibody titres as observed in treated cases. While this study does not precisely estimate the frequency of the alternative courses for this infection, it is noteworthy that in the field national control programs encounter a significant proportion of subjects displaying positive serologic test results but negative results in parasitological testing. These findings demonstrate that a number of these subjects display such infection courses. From our point of view, recognising that trypanotolerance exists in humans, as is now widely accepted for animals, is a major step forward for future research in the field of HAT.

The existence of a diversity of infection outcomes – ranging from self-cure to asymptomatic, severe or fatal cases – is now widely recognised for most parasitic and infectious diseases. The dogma concerning sleeping sickness, however, is still that infection is 100% fatal. Here we describe a 15-year follow-up of patients diagnosed with human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in the Ivory Coast but who refused treatment. Our results, based on clinical, serological, molecular, and parasitological investigations, combining diagnostic tools for the field and highly specific and sensitive laboratory tests, constitute the most comprehensive study on the natural evolution of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense infection in its human host. At least two alternative natural progressions of HAT to the “classic” fatal disease were identified: a progression to an apparently aparasitaemic and asymptomatic infection and a progression to an apparently spontaneous resolution of infection. We believe that recognising that trypanotolerance exists in humans is a major step forward for future research aimed at identifying human-specific defence and immune mechanisms involved in the control of T.b. gambiense infection and thus new candidate therapeutic or prophylactic targets.

Clinical presentation of T.b. rhodesiense sleeping sickness in second stage patients from Tanzania and Uganda

Background

A wide spectrum of disease severity has been described for Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) due to Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (T.b. rhodesiense), ranging from chronic disease patterns in southern countries of East Africa to an increase in virulence towards the north. However, only limited data on the clinical presentation of T.b. rhodesiense HAT is available. From 2006-2009 we conducted the first clinical trial program (Impamel III) in T.b. rhodesiense endemic areas of Tanzania and Uganda in accordance with international standards (ICH-GCP). The primary and secondary outcome measures were safety and efficacy of an abridged melarsoprol schedule for treatment of second stage disease. Based on diagnostic findings and clinical examinations at baseline we describe the clinical presentation of T.b. rhodesiense HAT in second stage patients from two distinct geographical settings in East Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings:

138 second stage patients from Tanzania and Uganda were enrolled. Blood samples were collected for diagnosis and molecular identification of the infective trypanosomes, and T.b. rhodesiense infection was confirmed in all trial subjects. Significant differences in diagnostic parameters and clinical signs and symptoms were observed: the median white blood cell (WBC) count in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was significantly higher in Tanzania (134cells/mm³) than in Uganda (20cells/mm³; p<0.0001). Unspecific signs of infection were more commonly seen in Uganda, whereas neurological signs and symptoms specific for HAT dominated the clinical presentation of the disease in Tanzania. Co-infections with malaria and HIV did not influence the clinical presentation nor treatment outcomes in the Tanzanian study population.

Conclusions/Significance

We describe a different clinical presentation of second stage T.b. rhodesiense HAT in two distinct geographical settings in East Africa. In the ongoing absence of sensitive diagnostic tools and safe drugs to diagnose and treat second stage T.b. rhodesiense HAT an early identification of the disease is essential. A detailed understanding of the clinical presentation of T.b. rhodesiense HAT among health personnel and affected communities is vital, and awareness of regional characteristics, as well as implications of co-infections, can support decision making and differential diagnosis.

Sleeping sickness, or Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT), caused by Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense is one of the most neglected tropical diseases. It affects mainly rural, poor East African populations and has very high socio-economic impacts. T.b. rhodesiense HAT is an acute disease; patients quickly progress from the first stage, where trypanosomes are detectable in blood and lymph, to the second stage, where parasites penetrate the central nervous system. If left untreated, T.b. rhodesiense HAT is fatal. Disease control is hampered by the absence of sensitive diagnostic tools and safe drugs. Second stage patients can only be treated with melarsoprol, a highly toxic, arsenical drug. It is more difficult to treat patients successfully at advanced stages of the disease, and late onset of treatment should be avoided. Yet, most patients are treated for other conditions prior to HAT diagnosis. Therefore, it is important that health personnel in T.b. rhodesiense endemic regions have a detailed understanding of the clinical presentation of the disease and consider regional characteristics of T.b. rhodesiense HAT for decision making and differential diagnosis.

The natural progression of Gambiense sleeping sickness: what is the evidence?

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) is widely assumed to be 100% pathogenic and fatal. However, reports to the contrary exist, and human trypano-tolerance has been postulated. Furthermore, there is uncertainty about the actual duration of both stage 1 and stage 2 infection, particularly with respect to how long a patient remains infectious. Understanding such basic parameters of HAT infection is essential for optimising control strategies based on case detection. We considered the potential existence and relevance of human trypano-tolerance, and explored the duration of infectiousness, through a review of published evidence on the natural progression of gambiense HAT in the absence of treatment, and biological considerations. Published reports indicate that most gambiense HAT cases are fatal if untreated. Self-resolving and asymptomatic chronic infections probably constitute a minority if they do indeed exist. Chronic carriage, however, deserves further study, as it could seed renewed epidemics after control programmes cease.

[Contributions and limits of the diagnosis of human African trypanosomiasis]

Human African trypanosomiasis, or sleeping sickness, is still a worrying problem in Africa. Sleeping sickness is a disease for which a systematic monitoring is necessary, particularly for the trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, which is characterized by a long asymptomatic stage. In the absence of specific clinical signs, mass screening of populations remains the only way to control the disease and to avoid its spreading. The lack of sensitivity and specificity of the diagnosis tests classically used led to the development of molecular tools. PCR amplification of parasite specific sequences has considerably improved the diagnostic of the parasitic infection, the stage diagnosis as well as the post-therapeutic follow-up. But there are limits with a use in routine and research is still necessary to make PCR a real tool for control of sleeping sickness.