Risk factors following first spontaneous epileptic seizure in children below 3 years of age

Prognosis of adults and children following a first unprovoked seizure

BACKGROUND

Epilepsy is clinically defined as two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures more than 24 hours apart. Given that, a diagnosis of epilepsy can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, it is imperative that clinicians (and people with seizures and their relatives) have access to accurate and reliable prognostic estimates, to guide clinical practice on the risks of developing further unprovoked seizures (and by definition, a diagnosis of epilepsy) following single unprovoked epileptic seizure.

OBJECTIVES

1. To provide an accurate estimate of the proportion of individuals going on to have further unprovoked seizures at subsequent time points following a single unprovoked epileptic seizure (or cluster of epileptic seizures within a 24-hour period, or a first episode of status epilepticus), of any seizure type (overall prognosis). 2. To evaluate the mortality rate following a first unprovoked epileptic seizure.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases on 19 September 2019 and again on 30 March 2021, with no language restrictions. The Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March 29, 2021), SCOPUS (1823 onwards), ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). CRS Web includes randomized or quasi-randomized, controlled trials from PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Specialized Registers of Cochrane Review Groups including Epilepsy. In MEDLINE (Ovid) the coverage end date always lags a few days behind the search date.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies, both retrospective and prospective, of all age groups (except those in the neonatal period (< 1 month of age)), of people with a single unprovoked seizure, followed up for a minimum of six months, with no upper limit of follow-up, with the study end point being seizure recurrence, death, or loss to follow-up. To be included, studies must have included at least 30 participants. We excluded studies that involved people with seizures that occur as a result of an acute precipitant or provoking factor, or in close temporal proximity to an acute neurological insult, since these are not considered epileptic in aetiology (acute symptomatic seizures). We also excluded people with situational seizures, such as febrile convulsions.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors conducted the initial screening of titles and abstracts identified through the electronic searches, and removed non-relevant articles. We obtained the full-text articles of all remaining potentially relevant studies, or those whose relevance could not be determined from the abstract alone and two authors independently assessed for eligibility. All disagreements were resolved through discussion with no need to defer to a third review author. We extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematicreviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS). Two review authors then appraised the included studies, using a standardised approach based on the quality in prognostic studies (QUIPS) tool, which was adapted for overall prognosis (seizure recurrence). We conducted a meta-analysis using Review Manager 2014, with a random-effects generic inverse variance meta-analysis model, which accounted for any between-study heterogeneity in the prognostic effect. We then summarised the meta-analysis by the pooled estimate (the average prognostic factor effect), its 95% confidence interval (CI), the estimates of I² and Tau² (heterogeneity), and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in a single population at three various time points, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the ages of the cohorts included; studies involving all ages, studies that recruited adult only and those that were purely paediatric.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifty-eight studies (involving 54 cohorts), with a total of 12,160 participants (median 147, range 31 to 1443), met the inclusion criteria for the review. Of the 58 studies, 26 studies were paediatric studies, 16 were adult and the remaining 16 studies were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. Most included studies had a cohort study design with two case-control studies and one nested case-control study. Thirty-two studies (29 cohorts) reported a prospective longitudinal design whilst 15 studies had a retrospective design whilst the remaining studies were randomised controlled trials. Nine of the studies included presented mortality data following a first unprovoked seizure. For a mortality study to be included, a proportional mortality ratio (PMR) or a standardised mortality ratio (SMR) had to be given at a specific time point following a first unprovoked seizure. To be included in the meta-analysis a study had to present clear seizure recurrence data at 6 months, 12 months or 24 months. Forty-six studies were included in the meta-analysis, of which 23 were paediatric, 13 were adult, and 10 were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. A meta-analysis was performed at three time points; six months, one year and two years for all ages combined, paediatric and adult studies, respectively. We found an estimated overall seizure recurrence of all included studies at six months of 27% (95% CI 24% to 31%), 36% (95% CI 33% to 40%) at one year and 43% (95% CI 37% to 44%) at two years, with slightly lower estimates for adult subgroup analysis and slightly higher estimates for paediatric subgroup analysis. It was not possible to provide a summary estimate of the risk of seizure recurrence beyond these time points as most of the included studies were of short follow-up and too few studies presented recurrence rates at a single time point beyond two years. The evidence presented was found to be of moderate certainty.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the limitations of the data (moderate-certainty of evidence), mainly relating to clinical and methodological heterogeneity we have provided summary estimates for the likely risk of seizure recurrence at six months, one year and two years for both children and adults. This provides information that is likely to be useful for the clinician counselling patients (or their parents) on the probable risk of further seizures in the short-term whilst acknowledging the paucity of long-term recurrence data, particularly beyond 10 years.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) and Monocyte-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR) Predict Clinical Outcome in Patients with Stage IIB Cervical Cancer

Introduction

Stage IIB cervical cancer (CC) is an advanced stage CC with poor prognosis. Inflammatory response plays a crucial role in the development of CC, and systemic inflammatory indexes were related to the prognosis in several cancers. The objective of the study was to determine the prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), basophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (BLR), and systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) as inflammatory indexes in patients with stage IIB CC.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective study was performed in 260 patients with stage IIB CC. PLR, NLR, MLR, BLR, and SIRI were obtained from routine blood tests. Prognosis information of the patients was acquired from regular clinical follow-up. Recurrence and response to therapy were determined through electronic medical records (EMRs). Correlations of the inflammatory indexes with overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), recurrence, and response to therapy were analyzed using SPSS version 26.0 software.

Results

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses suggested that NLR, MLR, and SIRI had better predictive value than PLR as well as BLR in the prognosis and recurrence risk. Both univariate and multivariate survival analyses showed that higher NLR and MLR were significantly associated with shorter OS as well as PFS, whereas SIRI was not an independent predictive factor of PFS. Chi-square test results revealed that increased NLR was significantly correlated with higher recurrence rate (P=0.046), and increased MLR showed significant correlation with elevated recurrence risk (P=0.002). Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses for response to therapy indicated that elevated NLR was associated with decreased complete remission (CR) rate (P=0.031), and the P value lost statistical significance while being adjusted by tumor size (P=0.108).

Conclusions

For patients with stage IIB CC, both NLR and MLR are independent prognostic factors as well as risk factors for recurrence; NLR serves as a potential marker for therapeutic response.

First-ever convulsive seizures in children presenting to the emergency department: risk factors for seizure recurrence and diagnosis of epilepsy

AIM

Aetiologies of first-ever convulsive seizures may be diverse, not all leading to recurrence or epilepsy diagnosis. We aimed to describe the epidemiology of first-ever convulsive seizures in children, investigating risk factors for recurrence and epilepsy diagnosis.

METHOD

This was a retrospective study of children presenting with a first-ever convulsive seizure to a tertiary-care paediatric emergency department (PED) in Italy, in a 12-month period (2011-2012).

RESULTS

One hundred and eight children (57 males, 51 females) presented to the PED for a first-ever convulsive seizure; 90.7% were 6 months to 6 years old (median age 1y 10mo, mean 2y 7mo, range 0mo-14y 4mo). Seizure duration was less than 5 minutes in 76.8%. Seizures were 'unprovoked' in 19.4% and 'provoked' in 80.6%. At 4-year follow-up, 37.9% of patients experienced recurrence and 13.6% received a diagnosis of epilepsy. Factors significantly associated with recurrence were the 'unprovoked' nature of the first seizure, multiple seizures in the first 24 hours, positive family history of febrile seizures or epilepsy, and pre-existing neurological conditions/problems. Factors significantly associated with a diagnosis of epilepsy were the 'unprovoked' nature of the first seizure, age older than 6 years, pre-existing neurological conditions/problems, and focal onset of first seizure.

INTERPRETATION

Children presenting to the PED with first-ever convulsive seizures represent a heterogeneous group. The identification of prognostic factors for recurrence and epilepsy diagnosis may help provide tailored counselling and follow-up.

WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS

Seizures were 'unprovoked' in 19.4% and 'provoked' in 80.6% of children presenting to the emergency department. At 4-year follow-up, 37.9% relapsed, and 13.6% received a diagnosis of epilepsy. 'Unprovoked' first seizure, family history of febrile seizures, and pre-existing neurological conditions were associated with recurrence. 'Unprovoked' first seizure, age younger than 6 years, and pre-existing neurological conditions were associated with epilepsy diagnosis.

The role of brain-derived neurotrophic factor and its single nucleotide polymorphisms in stroke patients

Stroke is the main cause of motoric and neuropsychological disability in adults. Recent advances in research into the role of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor in neuroplasticity, neuroprotection and neurogenesis might provide important information for the development of new poststroke-rehabilitation strategies. It plays a role as a mediator in motor learning and rehabilitation after stroke. Concentrations of BDNF are lower in acute ischemic-stroke patients compared to controls. Lower levels of BDNF are correlated with an increased risk of stroke, worse functional outcomes and higher mortality. BDNF signalling is dependent on the genetic variation which could affect an individual's response to recovery after stroke. Several single nucleotide polymorphisms of the BDNF gene have been studied with regard to stroke patients, but most papers analyse the rs6265 which results in a change from valine to methionine in the precursor protein. Subsequently a reduction in BDNF activity is observed. There are studies indicating the role of this polymorphism in brain plasticity, functional and morphological changes in the brain. It may affect the risk of ischemic stroke, post-stroke outcomes and the efficacy of the rehabilitation process within physical exercise and transcranial magnetic stimulation. There is a consistent trend of Met alleles' being connected with worse outcomes and prognoses after stroke. However, there is no satisfactory data confirming the importance of Met allele in stroke epidemiology and the post-stroke rehabilitation process. We present the current data on the role of BDNF and polymorphisms of the BDNF gene in stroke patients, concentrating on human studies.