Performance of wells score to predict deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism in endurance athletes

Prediction of venous thromboembolism with machine learning techniques in young-middle-aged inpatients

Accumulating studies appear to suggest that the risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) among young-middle-aged inpatients are different from those among elderly people. Therefore, the current prediction models for VTE are not applicable to young-middle-aged inpatients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a new prediction model for young-middle-aged people using machine learning methods. The clinical data sets linked with 167 inpatients with deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and/or pulmonary embolism (PE) and 406 patients without DVT or PE were compared and analysed with machine learning techniques. Five algorithms, including logistic regression, decision tree, feed-forward neural network, support vector machine, and random forest, were used for training and preparing the models. The support vector machine model had the best performance, with AUC values of 0.806-0.944 for 95% CI, 59% sensitivity and 99% specificity, and an accuracy of 87%. Although different top predictors of adverse outcomes appeared in the different models, life-threatening illness, fibrinogen, RBCs, and PT appeared to be more consistently featured by the different models as top predictors of adverse outcomes. Clinical data sets of young and middle-aged inpatients can be used to accurately predict the risk of VTE with a support vector machine model.

Sport and Venous Thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

The occurrence of venous thromboembolisms (VTE) in association with sporting activity has been described but not yet systematically explored. The aim of this study was to determine the sites at which VTE occur in athletes, the accompanying features, and the special features of the symptoms and diagnosis, so that physicians can take the findings into consideration.

METHODS

A search of the literature in the databases PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane in accordance with the PRISMA criteria, together with a search of Google Scholar up to 29 February 2020.

RESULTS

No observational studies were identified. A total of 154 case descriptions were evaluated: 89 on upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT), 53 on lower-extremity DVT, and 12 on pulmonary embolisms with no evidence of thrombosis. Ninety-five percent of the upper-extremity DVT involved the region of the subclavian/axillary vein. Thoracic outlet syndrome (38%), hereditary thrombophilia/a family history of VTE (16%), intensive training (12%), and the use of oral contraceptives (7%) were identified as accompanying features. The upper-extremity DVT occurred mainly in male strength athletes and ball sports players. The lower-extremity DVT were located in the lower leg/knee (30%), the thigh (19 %), or occurred in combination in the lower leg-to-pelvis region (30 %). The features accompanying lower-extremity DVT were hereditary thrombophilia/a family history of VTE (30%), trauma (25%), immobilization (21%), and the use of oral contraceptives (11%). The lower-extremity DVT were found in endurance sports and ball sports. The symptoms may be obscured by sport-specific symptoms/trauma, and diagnosis is often delayed. Early D-dimer determination is useful and is complemented by diagnostic imaging.

CONCLUSION

VTE are found in association with sports. The background factors, the sites of VTE, the types of sports involved, and the accompanying features are all important to know. The symptoms may be obscured, and it may be difficult to reach the correct diagnosis. The possible presence of DVT must be borne in mind.

Predictive Model for Pulmonary Embolism in Patients with Deep Vein Thrombosis

BACKGROUND

To develop and verify a risk predictive model/scoring system for pulmonary embolism (PE) among hospitalized patients with deep venous thrombosis of the lower extremities (LDVT).

METHODS

776 patients with LDVT were enrolled in a case-control study between January 2016 and June 2017 from the Vascular Surgery Department of Shanxi Dayi Hospital, China. They were randomly divided into development (543 patients, 70%) and validation (233 patients, 30%) databases. Based on the results of pulmonary computed tomography arteriography, patients were divided into 2 categories; those with PE were designated as the case group, whereas those without comprised the controls. A logistic regression model and scoring system for PE in patients with LDVT was established in the development database and verified in the validation database. Scoring system (Shanxi Dayi Hospital score [SDH score]) was tabulated as follows: right lower extremity or bilateral lower extremities, 1; surgery or immobilization, 1; malignant tumor, 1; history of venous thromboembolism (VTE), 2; D-dimer >1,000 ng/mL, 2; and unprovoked, 2. Calibration and discrimination of the model were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Wells score, the Revised Geneva score, and the SDH score for predictive value of PE by AUC in the validation database were compared.

RESULTS

776 patients with LDVT were divided into 2 risk categories based on the scores from the risk model as follows: PE unlikely (score <3) and PE likely (score ≥3). Sensitivity, specificity, and crude agreement of the SDH score in the development database were 76.39%, 55.89%, and 61.33%, respectively. In the validation database, the logistic regression model showed good calibration and discriminative power. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test P value was >0.05, and the AUC was 0.705 (95% CI: 0.634-0.776, P < 0.001). The SDH score also showed good discriminative power, and the AUC was 0.702 (95% CI: 0.631-0.774, P < 0.001). Sensitivity, specificity, and crude agreement of the SDH score in the validation database were 67.61%, 61.73%, and 63.52%, respectively. AUC for the Wells score and the Revised Geneva score was 0.611 (95% CI: 0.533-0.688, P = 0.007) and 0.585 (95% CI: 0.503-0.666, P = 0.040), respectively. Difference of the AUC was not statistically significant between the Wells score and the SDH score (0.611 vs. 0.702, P = 0.059) but was so between the Revised Geneva score and the SDH score (0.585 vs. 0.702, P = 0.016). Sensitivity of the Wells score, Revised Geneva score, and the SDH score (64.79%, 67.61% vs. 67.61%) was not statistically significant. However, the specificity of the Wells score and Revised Geneva score was significantly lower than that of the SDH score (48.77%, 39.51% vs. 61.73%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our logistic regression model and the SDH score based on 7 risk factors as right lower extremity, bilateral lower extremities, unprovoked, surgery or immobilization, malignant tumor, history of VTE, and D-dimer>1,000 ng/mL showed good calibration and discriminative power for the assessment of PE risk in patients with LDVT. The SDH score is more specific for PE prediction in the Chinese population, compared with the Wells score and the Revised Geneva score.

Venous thromboemboli associated with acute aerobic exercise: A review of case report commonalities

Venous thromboembolic (VTE) events such as deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) have been reported in otherwise low-risk healthy athletes following acute bouts of aerobic exercise.

PURPOSE

To review case reports and assess the commonalities of athletic individuals with VTE, as well as return-to-play (RTP) recommendations.

METHODS

We reviewed 47 reports (20 DVTs, 15 PEs, and 12 DVTs/PEs, 19 women) of trained individuals who were diagnosed with DVT and/or PE following aerobic exercise. We assessed frequency of VTE risk factors, presenting symptoms, and RTP recommendations.

RESULTS

The age of women (24.6 ± 7.0 years) was lower (P < .01) than of men (40.6 ± 13.6 years). Of the 19 women, 14 (73.7%) used oral contraceptives. Thirteen cases (27.7%) reported a recent period of prolonged inactivity (>1 hour), and another 12 cases were found to have an antithrombin disorder following testing after diagnosis. The most frequently reported symptoms were muscle pain in 26 of 32 (81.3%) DVT or DVT/PE cases, and dyspnea in 21 of 27 (77.8%) PE or DVT/PE cases. Despite these common symptoms, the estimated time from first report of symptoms to confirmed diagnosis was 56.3 ± 118.7 days and 25 cases (53.2%) were initially misdiagnosed. Twenty-three cases (48.9%) did not report RTP recommendations, and those which did varied widely.

CONCLUSIONS

Thirty-two cases (~70%) had at least one of three major risk factors, suggesting that many cases of VTE in athletes may be preventable with better education and awareness. The wide variety of RTP recommendations highlights the need for standardized guidelines in this population.