Chronic diseases and allergies are risk factors predictive of a history of Medial Tibial Stress Syndrome (MTSS) in distance runners: SAFER study XXIV

Risk factors associated with a history of iliotibial band syndrome (hITBS) in distance runners: a cross-sectional study in 76 654 race entrants - a SAFER XXXIII study

BACKGROUND

Despite the numerous health benefits of distance running, it is also associated with the development of 'gradual onset running-related injuries' (GORRIs) one of which is Iliotibial Band Syndrome (ITBS). Novel risk factors associated with a history of ITBS (hITBS) have not been described in a large cohort of distance runners.

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors associated with hITBS in distance runners.

DESIGN

Descriptive cross-sectional study.

SETTING

21.1 km and 56 km Two Oceans Marathon races (2012-2015).

PARTICIPANTS

106 743 race entrants completed the online pre-race medical screening questionnaire. A total of 1 314 runners confirmed an accurate hITBS diagnosis.

METHODS

Selected risk factors associated with hITBS explored included: demographics (race distance, sex, age groups), training/running variables, history of existing chronic diseases (including a composite chronic disease score) and history of any allergy. Prevalence (%) and prevalence ratios (PR; 95% CI) are reported (uni- & multiple regression analyzes).

RESULTS

1.63% entrants reported hITBS in a 12-month period. There was a higher (p < 0.0001) prevalence of hITBS in the longer race distance entrants (56 km), females, younger entrants, fewer years of recreational running (PR = 1.07; p = 0.0009) and faster average running speed (PR = 1.02; p = 0.0066). When adjusted for race distance, sex, age groups, a higher chronic disease composite score (PR = 2.38 times increased risk for every two additional chronic diseases; p < 0.0001) and a history of allergies (PR = 1.9; p < 0.0001) were independent risk factors associated with hITBS.

CONCLUSION

Apart from female sex, younger age, fewer years of running and slower running speed, two novel independent risk factors associated with hITBS in distance runners are an increased number of chronic diseases and a history of allergies. Identifying athletes at higher risk for ITBS can guide healthcare professionals in their prevention and rehabilitation efforts.

Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome Is Associated With Chronic Disease and Allergies in 60 997 Distance Runner Race Entrants: SAFER XXX Study

OBJECTIVE

Patellofemoral pain syndrome (PFPS) is a common running-related injury. Independent risk factors associated with PFPS have not been described in a large cohort of distance runners.

DESIGN

Descriptive, cross-sectional study.

SETTING

21.1 and 56 km Two Oceans Marathon races (2012-2015).

PARTICIPANTS

60 997 race entrants.

ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS

Participants completed a compulsory prerace medical screening questionnaire (history of PFPS in the past 12 months, n = 362; no injury history, n = 60 635). Selected risk factors associated with a history of PFPS were explored using univariate & multivariate analyses: demographics, training/running variables, history of chronic diseases (composite chronic disease score), and any allergy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence ratios (PRs, 95% confidence intervals).

RESULTS

Risk factors associated with PFPS (univariate analysis) were increased years of recreational running (PR = 1.09; P = 0.0107), older age (>50 years), and chronic diseases (PR > 2): gastrointestinal disease (PR = 5.06; P < 0.0001), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (PR = 3.28; P < 0.0001), nervous system/psychiatric disease (PR = 3.04; P < 0.0001), cancer (PR = 2.83; P = 0.0005), risk factors for CVD (PR = 2.42; P < 0.0001), symptoms of CVD (PR = 2.38; P = 0.0397), and respiratory disease (PR = 2.00; P < 0.0001). Independent risk factors (multivariate analysis) associated with PFPS (adjusted for age, sex, and race distance) were a higher chronic disease composite score (PR = 2.68 increased risk for every 2 additional chronic diseases; P < 0.0001) and a history of allergies (PR = 2.33; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Novel independent risk factors associated with PFPS in distance runners are a history of multiple chronic diseases and a history of allergies. Identification of chronic diseases and allergies should be considered as part of the clinical assessment of a runner presenting with a history of PFPS.

Externally validated machine learning algorithm accurately predicts medial tibial stress syndrome in military trainees: a multicohort study

Objectives

Medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) is a common musculoskeletal injury in both sporting and military settings. No reliable treatments exist, and reoccurrence rates are high. Prevention of MTSS is critical to reducing operational burden. Therefore, this study aimed to build a decision-making model to predict the individual risk of MTSS within officer cadets and test the external validity of the model on a separate military population.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Methods

This study collected a suite of key variables previously established for predicting MTSS. Data were obtained from 107 cadets (34 women and 73 men). A follow-up survey was conducted at 3 months to determine MTSS diagnoses. Six ensemble learning algorithms were deployed and trained five times on random stratified samples of 75% of the dataset. The resultant algorithms were tested on the remaining 25% of the dataset, with models then compared for accuracy. The most accurate new algorithm was tested on an unrelated data sample of 123 Australian Navy recruits to establish external validity of the model.

Results

Calibrated random forest modelling was the most accurate in identifying a diagnosis of MTSS; (area under curve (AUC)=98%, classification accuracy (CA)=96%). External validation on a sample of Navy recruits resulted in comparable accuracy; (AUC=95%, CA=94%). When the model was tested on the combined datasets, similar accuracy was achieved; (AUC=92%, CA=91%).

Conclusion

This model is highly accurate in predicting those who will develop MTSS. The model provides important preventive capacity which should be trialled as a risk management intervention.