Predictive values of anti-müllerian hormone, antral follicle count and ovarian response prediction index (ORPI) for assisted reproductive technology outcomes

Predicting the ovarian response: towards a determinant model and implications for practice

OBJECTIVE

To improve the reliability of prediction models for ovarian response to stimulation in ART.

DESIGN

A multicenter retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Twelve reproductive centers.

PATIENTS

A total of 25,854 controlled ovarian stimulations between 2005 and 2016, including cycles cancelled for inadequate response, were included.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Precision of the prediction of the number of oocytes at ovarian pickup and of cancellation rate for poor ovarian response.

RESULTS

Both AMH and antral follicle count exhibit a non-linear effect on the oocyte yield, with a linear relationship after log-transformation. After adjustment for age, BMI, and center, ovarian response observed in a previous stimulation was found to be the best predictor, followed by AMH and AFC. The zero-inflated binomial negative model showed that predictors of cycle cancellation and number of oocytes at retrieval were different, and assimilating cancellation to zero oocyte greatly reduces the determination of the model. Our model was characterized by the best ever reached determination (R2=0.505 for non-naïve women, 0.313 for all the women) and provided evidence of a very strong difference among centers. The results can be easily converted in the prediction of response levels (poor-medium-good-high). Finally, in case of partial report of the above predictors, we show that the univariate prediction based on the best predictor provides a good approximation.

CONCLUSION(S)

A substantial improvement of the ovarian response prediction is possible in modelling the possible cancellation decision, followed by the oocyte retrieval itself, according to an appropriate model based on previous stimulation and non-linear effects of AMH and AFC.

Evaluative effectiveness of follicular output rate, ovarian sensitivity index, and ovarian response prediction index for the ovarian reserve and response of low-prognosis patients according to the POSEIDON criteria: a retrospective study

The aim was to explore the implications of follicular output rate (FORT), ovarian sensitivity index (OSI), ovarian response prediction index (ORPI), and follicle-to-oocyte index (FOI) in low-prognosis patients defined by POSEIDON criteria. In total, 4030 fresh in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles from January 2013 to October 2021 were included in this retrospective cohort analysis and were categorized into four groups based on the POSEIDON criteria. The FORT between Groups 1 and 2 (0.61 ± 0.34 vs. 0.65 ± 0.35, P = 0.081) and Groups 3 and 4 (1.08 ± 0.82 vs. 1.09 ± 0.94, P = 0.899) were similar. The OSI in the order from the highest to the lowest were 3.01 ± 1.46 in Group 1, 2.28 ± 1.09 in Group 2, 1.54 ± 1.04 in Group 3, and 1.34 ± 0.96 in Group 4 (P < 0.001). The trend in the ORPI values was consistent with that in the OSI. FORT, OSI, ORPI, and FOI complemented each other and offered excellent effectiveness in reflecting ovarian reserve and response, but they were not good predictors of clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) from IVF.

Using serum anti-Müllerian hormone levels to predict the chance of live birth after spontaneous or assisted conception: a systematic review and meta-analysis

STUDY QUESTION

Is serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level predictive of cumulative live birth (CLB) rate after ART or in women trying to conceive naturally?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Serum AMH level is linked to CLB after IVF/ICSI but data are lacking after IUI or in women trying to conceive without ART.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Serum AMH level is a marker of ovarian reserve and a good predictor of ovarian response after controlled ovarian stimulation. It is unclear whether AMH measurement can predict CLB in spontaneous or assisted conception.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken to assess whether serum AMH level may predict chances of CLB in infertile women undergoing IVF/ICSI or IUI and/or chances of live birth in women having conceived naturally.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using the following keywords: 'AMH', 'anti-mullerian hormone', 'live-birth', 'cumulative live birth'. Searches were conducted from January 2004 to April 2021 on PubMed and Embase. Two independent reviewers carried out study selection, quality, and risk of bias assessment as well as data extraction. Odds ratios were estimated using a random-effect model. Pre-specified sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were performed. The primary outcome was CLB.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

A total of 32 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Overall, 27 articles were included in the meta-analysis of the relation between AMH and CLB or AMH and LB after IVF/ICSI. A non-linear positive relation was found in both cases. A polynomial fraction was the best model to describe it but no discriminant AMH threshold was shown, especially no serum AMH level threshold below which live birth could not be achieved after IVF/ICSI. After IVF-ICSI, only four studies reported CLB rate according to AMH level. No statistically significant differences in mean serum AMH levels were shown between patients with and without CLB, but with a high heterogeneity. After exclusion of two studies with high risks of bias, there was no more heterogeneity [I2 = 0%] and the mean AMH level was statistically significantly higher in women with CLB. There were not enough articles/data to assess the ability of AMH to predict CLB rate or find an AMH threshold after IUI or in women without history of infertility trying to conceive without ART.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The systematic review and meta-analysis had some limitations owing to the limits and bias of the studies included. In the present meta-analysis, heterogeneity may have been caused by different baseline characteristics in study participants, different stimulating protocols for ART, different serum AMH level thresholds used and the use of various assays for serum AMH. This could explain, in part, the absence of a discriminating AMH threshold found in this analysis.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Serum AMH level is linked to CLB rate after IVF/ICSI but no discriminating threshold can be established, therefore low serum AMH level should not be used as the sole criterion for rejecting IVF treatment, especially in young patients. Data are lacking concerning its predictive value after IUI or in women trying to conceive without ART. Our findings may be helpful to counsel candidate couples to IVF-ICSI.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

No external funding was obtained for this study. There are no conflicts of interest.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO CRD42021269332.

Comparison of anti-Müllerian hormone and antral follicle count in the prediction of ovarian response: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Increasingly studies reported that the Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) seems to be a promising and reliable marker of functional ovarian follicle reserve, even better than the AFC test. Our study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to assess the predictive value of AMH and AFC for predicting poor or high response in IVF treatment. An electronic search was conducted, and the following databases were used: PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (up to 7 May 2022). The bivariate regression model was used to calculate the pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression also were used in the presented study. Overall performance was assessed by estimating pooled ROC curves between AMH and AFC.

RESULTS

Forty-two studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Comparison of the summary estimates for the prediction of poor or high response showed significant difference in performance for AMH compared with AFC [poor (sensitivity: 0.80 vs 0.74, P < 0.050; specificity: 0.81 vs 0.85, P < 0.001); high (sensitivity: 0.81 vs 0.87, P < 0.001)]. However, there were no significant differences between the ROC curves of AMH and AFC for predicting high (P = 0.835) or poor response (P = 0.567). The cut-off value was a significant source of heterogeneity in the present study.

CONCLUSIONS

The present meta-analysis demonstrated that both AMH and AFC have a good predictive ability to the prediction of poor or high responses in IVF treatment.

Impact of Follicle Stimulating Hormone Receptor (FSHR) Polymorphism on the Efficiency of Co-Treatment with Growth Hormone in a Group of Infertile Women from Romania

“Poor responders” (PR) are an important category of infertile women who experience a modest response to controlled ovarian stimulation. In this study, we evaluated response to growth hormone (GH) administration among PR patient subtypes stratified by follicle stimulation hormone receptor (FSHR) polymorphism (c.2039A > G p.Asn680Ser). We conducted a cohort study of 125 women with poor ovarian response, 58 of whom received GH in addition to the standard treatment, and 67 of whom received the standard treatment only. The Ala307Thr polymorphism genotypes were analyzed using a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method, and the FSHR gene polymorphism was analyzed using a predesigned TaqMan SNP Genotyping Assay (rs6166). A comparative analysis detected statistically significant differences in mean mature follicles (p = 0.0002), metaphase-II oocytes (p = 0.0005), progesterone levels (p = 0.0036), and IGF levels (follicle IGF1, p = 0.0004) between GH-treated and non-GH-treated participants with the FSHR (Ser/Ser) polymorphism. However, the differences were modest among participants with the other two FSHR polymorphisms (Ser/Asn and Asn/Asn). The subcategory of patients with the FSHR Asn680Ser (Ser/Ser) polymorphism showed a stronger response when GH was added to the IVF protocol.

Are ovarian reserve tests reliable in predicting ovarian response? Results from a prospective, cross-sectional, single-center analysis

OBJETIVE

Several biomarkers of ovarian reserve have been proposed as possible predictors of the response to controlled ovarian stimulation (COS). We aimed to evaluate age, FSH, AMH, antral follicle count (AFC), and ovarian response prediction index (ORPI), as potential predictors of response to COS.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study enrolling of 188 infertile women who underwent the first cycle of IVF/ICSI. AFC was evaluated; serum FSH and AMH levels were measured by ELISA. ORPI was calculated as AMH x AFC/patient´s age.

RESULTS

As expected, hypo-responder group had less retrieved oocytes, MII, and embryos compared to the good responders. The hyper-response patients were younger, with lower FSH, increased AMH, AFC, and ORPI values. Regarding the assessment of the predictive capacity of ovarian reserve tests, none of them individually or combined showed a good predictive capacity for hypo-response. With respect to the hyper-responder group, individually AMH was the best predictor, while in the multivariable model, ORPI demonstrated the best predictive capacity. Furthermore, patients with serum AMH < 2.09 ng/mL (p25) had fewer AFC than patients with higher AMH values.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that none of the ovarian reserve tests showed a good predictive capacity for hypo-response, while the ORPI was the strongest predictor of hyper-response in normovulatory infertile women.

The comparison of evaluative effectiveness between antral follicle count/age ratio and ovarian response prediction index for the ovarian reserve and response functions in infertile women

Aim of the present study was to explore the evaluative effectiveness of age, ovarian volume (OV), antral follicle count (AFC), serum follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), AFC/Age ratio, AMH/Age ratio, FSH/luteinizing hormone (LH) ratio, and ovarian response prediction index (ORPI) to determine which could more advantageously assess ovarian reserve and response.This research enrolled 319 consecutive infertile women who had undergone in vitro fertilization-ET/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF-ET/ICSI) treatments. Abovementioned variables were measured and calculated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to analyze the predictive accuracy of variables and to calculate cut-off values and corresponding sensitivity and specificity.Our study revealed that the significant variables for evaluating a decline in ovarian reserve include age, OV, FSH, AFC/Age ratio, AMH/Age ratio, and ORPI. Moreover, the area under the curve (AUC) of AFC/Age ratio was higher than other 5 variables (AUC = 1.000), and the cut-off value of AFC/Age ratio was 0.111 (sensitivity 100.00%, specificity 100.00%). The significant variables forecasting excessive ovarian response were age, AFC, AMH, FSH, AFC/Age ratio, AMH/Age ratio, FSH/LH ratio, and ORPI, and the significant variables forecasting poor ovarian response were AMH, LH, OV, AFC/Age ratio, AMH/Age ratio, and FSH/LH ratio. When ORPI was used to predict excessive response, the cut-off value of ORPI was 0.880 (sensitivity 84.72%, specificity 67.32%) and ORPI presented better effectiveness. When used to predict poor response, the evaluative effectiveness of 6 variables was almost similar, although the AUC of AFC/Age ratio presented the largest value.Regarding the infertile women, AFC/Age ratio performed better than did the other variables in evaluating ovarian reserve, and it offered excellent effectiveness in predicting poor ovarian response, however, ORPI presented better effectiveness in predicting excessive ovarian response.

Performance of ovarian response prediction index (ORPI) in predicting ovarian response and livebirth in the in-vitro fertilisation cycle using a standard stimulation with corifollitropin alpha in a GnRH antagonist protocol

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of ovarian response prediction index (ORPI) in predicting ovarian response and livebirth of women undergoing their first in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycle. This is a retrospective analysis of 285 women from 2013 to 2016. The outcome measures were area (AUC) under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves for prediction of excessive and poor response, livebirth in the fresh cycle and cumulative livebirth. The ORPI was significantly correlated with the oocyte number. For prediction of excessive response, AUC for ORPI was comparable to AMH and significantly higher than AFC and female age. At a cut-off of 0.42, ORPI has a sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 77% respectively for prediction of excessive response. For prediction of poor response, AUC for ORPI was significantly higher than AFC, AMH and female age. At a cut-off of 0.12, ORPI has a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 89% respectively for prediction of poor response. For prediction of livebirth, AUCs of ORPI were not significantly different from AFC and female age. Therefore, ORPI is not a good predictor of livebirth. Its prediction of excessive and poor ovarian response is comparable to that of serum AMH.

Antral follicle responsiveness assessed by follicular output RaTe(FORT) correlates with follicles diameter

BACKGROUND

The antral follicle count is a marker of ovarian reserve. Follicular Output RaTe (FORT) evaluates the proportion of follicles responsive to exogenous follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) during controlled ovarian stimulation. Our objective was to evaluate whether the diameter (AFC6: ≤ 6 mm or AFC > 6: > 6 mm) of the follicular cohort could be a predictor for ovarian responsiveness, assessed by FORT, in a prospective cohort with 92 women with IVF indication, regular cycles and no abnormality in both ovaries.

RESULTS

The mean age (±SD) of the women was 36.03 years (± 3.87 years), the median FORT was 43.30%. We found correlation between the FORT and AFC6 (r = - 0.237, P 0.023) but not between the FORT and AFC > 6 (r = - 0.055, P 0.602).

CONCLUSIONS

The inverse correlation between FORT and AFC6 suggests that those follicles were less responsive to the exogenous FSH.

Ovarian Reserve Markers to Identify Poor Responders in the Context of Poseidon Classification

It is well-known that poor ovarian reserve is a cause of infertility, poor response to gonadotrophin stimulation and poor success rate after in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles. Some years ago a consensus was elaborated on precise criteria which can lead to a correct identification of poor responders (the Bologna criteria). More recently, the POSEIDON group has proposed a new stratified classification of patients with low prognosis, also with the aim of providing clinical indications for the management of these patients. A literature search was carried out for studies that investigated the ability of ovarian reserve markers, in particular AMH and AFC, to predict poor ovarian response in IVF cycles; secondly, studies regarding the Bologna criteria and their prognostic value were analyzed and available literature on POSEIDON classification was reported. The most recent markers of ovarian reserve (serum AMH and ultrasound AFC) have shown to provide a direct and accurate measurement of ovarian follicle pool. These markers have generally shown comparable predictive power for ovarian response and a number of retrieved oocytes in IVF cycles. "Abnormal ovarian reserve test" is a very important parameter both in the Bologna criteria and in the POSEIDON classification. Several studies have already been published about the reproductive outcome of patients defined as poor responders according to the ESHRE Bologna criteria: all of them agree on the poor IVF outcome and low pregnancy rate of these patients. Instead, being the POSEIDON classification of very recent publication, the efficacy of the POSEIDON approach in improving management and outcomes of POR patients has yet to be tested and validated with future prospective clinical trials. Prediction of poor response may help clinicians choose the stimulation protocol with the aim of gaining patient compliance and cost reduction, and many efforts have been made by researchers in this sense, including the formulation of the Bologna criteria and of the POSEIDON classification, in which the ovarian reserve markers (AMH and AFC) play a fundamental role.

The effects of superovulation with gonadotropins on autoantibody levels in patients undergoing assisted reproductive cycles

PURPOSE

To evaluate the effect of controlled ovarian stimulation (COH) with gonadotropins on the serum levels of autoantibodies in the women who underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles and to compare basal levels of these autoantibodies between groups according to history of COH.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was performed from October 2014 to March 2016 in the Royan Institute. The volunteered infertile women with regard to the inclusion criteria, who underwent IVF/ICSI cycles, were recruited. The COH was performed according to standard long GnRH agonist protocol. The mean levels of the autoantibodies including anti-nuclear, anti-smooth muscle, anti-ovarian, anti-mitochondrial, anti β₂-glycoprotein I, anti-parietal cell and anti-follicle-stimulating hormone antibodies were measured at three time points: on the 3-5 days of the menstrual cycle, 1 week after starting of COH and the ovum pick-up (OPU) day.

RESULTS

Of all participants (n = 189), 73 women had history of COH (group B) and 116 women did not have such history (group A). The analysis indicated that the autoantibodies changes during COH were similar in both groups. COH has no significant impact on the level of autoantibodies during the stimulation cycle. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the serum levels of anti-smooth muscle antibody on OPU day was the positive predictive factors for live birth following ART cycles in the studied population.

CONCLUSION

No significant effect of COH on the studied autoantibodies by the time of OPU was found but further studies are required to interpret these results.

Differential response of AMH to GnRH agonist among individuals: the effect on ovarian stimulation outcomes

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether individual response of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) to gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) treatment is associated with difference in ovarian stimulation outcomes.

METHODS

The retrospective study included 1058 non-polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) women undergoing long agonist protocol in a single in vitro fertilization unit from January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2016. Patients were grouped according to AMH changes from day 3 to the day of stimulation (group 1, change < 1 ng/ml, n = 714; group 2, decrease ≥ 1 ng/ml, n = 143; group 3, increase ≥ 1 ng/ml, n = 201). A generalized linear model including Poisson distribution and log link function was used to evaluate the association between AMH response and the number of oocytes retrieved.

RESULTS

Group 2 was characterized by higher basal AMH level and increased AMH to AFC ratio in comparison with two other groups. However, the number of oocytes and ovarian sensitivity index in group 2 was significantly lower than group 3. Adjusted for age, BMI, ovarian reserve markers, and stimulation parameters, the population marginal means (95% confidence interval) of oocyte number in groups 1 through 3 were 9.51 (9.17, 9.86), 8.04 (7.54, 8.58), and 10.65 (10.15, 11.18), respectively. For patients from group 2 and group 3, basal AMH is no longer significantly associated with oocyte yield.

CONCLUSIONS

AMH change in response to GnRH agonist varies among individuals; for those undergoing significant changes in AMH following GnRH agonist treatment, basal AMH may not be a reliable marker for ovarian response in long agonist protocol.

Anti-Müllerian hormone does not predict time to pregnancy: results of a prospective cohort study

In order to study whether ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) can predict time to ongoing pregnancy, we conducted a prospective cohort study in a cohort of healthy pregnancy planners. A total of 102 pregnancy planners were followed for 1 year, or until ongoing pregnancy occurred, after cessation of contraceptives). A baseline measurement of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and antral follicle count (AFC) was conducted. At the end of follow-up, a semen analysis was performed and chlamydia antibody titres were assessed. A univariate prediction model demonstrated age and the AFC to be significantly capable of predicting time to pregnancy (hazard ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.98, p = 0.01; 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07, p = 0.02 respectively). In the multivariate model, however, correcting for female age, we found no predictive effect of AMH, basal FSH or the AFC for time to ongoing pregnancy (hazard ratios 1.43, 95% CI 0.84-2.46, p = 0.36; 0.96, 95% CI 0.86-1.06, p = 0.43; 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.07, p = 0.08, respectively). This was confirmed by the low C-statistic. We therefore concluded that baseline AMH, AFC or FSH levels do not predict time to ongoing pregnancy in a cohort of healthy pregnancy planners. These results limit the usability of these ORTs in the assessment of current fertility.