Examination of birthplace and birthdate in World Junior ice hockey players

Birthplace Effect in Soccer: A Systematic Review

Birthplace is a contextual variable that influences the talent development process of soccer players. The main objective of this systematic review was to compile the scientific literature on the effect of birthplace in soccer. This is the first systematic review to investigate how this contextual factor relates to talent development in soccer. Using the PRISMA methodology, the analysis of the 14 articles that were part of the final review concluded with three main discursive themes: the place of birth and population size, composition of the birthplace and socio-demographic characteristics of the population, and the place of birth and the location of high performance sport centres. This review shows that there are several underlying elements for understanding the effect of the place of birth on the development of talent in soccer. The combination of population density and the level of facilities in the place where the player was born are key in the development of a soccer player. It is not only about the place as a space, but also about what that space means for the development of the player's soccer skills. The findings not only highlight the characteristics of the areas, in terms of density and equipment supply, identified as talent hotspots, but also provide an opportunity to critically reflect on current practices of talent identification and development in soccer.

Exploring the role of socioeconomic status and psychological characteristics on talent development in an English soccer academy

Social factors and psychological characteristics can influence selection and development in talent pathways. However, the interaction between these two factors is relatively unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the implications of socioeconomic status and psychological characteristics in English academy soccer players (n = 58; aged 11 to 16 years). To assess socioeconomic status, participants' home postcodes were coded according to each individual's social classification and credit rating, applying the UK General Registrar Classification system and CameoTM geodemographic database, respectively. Participants also completed the six factor Psychological Characteristics for Developing Excellence Questionnaire (PCDEQ). A classification of 'higher-potentials' (n = 19) and 'lower-potentials' (n = 19) were applied through coach potential rankings. Data were standardised using z-scores to eliminate age bias and data were analysed using independent sample t-tests. Results showed that higher-potentials derived from families with significantly lower social classifications (p = 0.014) and reported higher levels for PCDEQ Factor 3 (coping with performance and developmental pressures) (p = 0.007) compared to lower-potentials. This study can be used to support the impetus for researchers and practitioners to consider the role of social factors and psychological characteristics when selecting and developing sporting talent. For example, facilitating player-centred development within an academy and, where necessary, providing individuals with additional support.

The Influence of Contextual Aspects in Talent Development: Interaction Between Relative Age and Birthplace Effects in NBA-Drafted Players

The aims of this study were two-fold: (1) to inspect separately for the relative age and birthplace effects for players selected in the National Basketball Association (NBA) draft; (2) to explore the interaction among these factors and analyse this interaction in players' career performance. The database was obtained from the official records of the players (n = 1,738), who were selected during the annual editions of the NBA Draft from 1990 to 2019. The participants' date of birth was analyzed according to the month of birth and divided into four quartiles. The place of birth was compared to the distribution of the general population' places of birth based on different communities' sizes. Chi-square analysis were used to determine if the relative age and birthplace of the players drafted differed in any systematic way from official census population distributions. Cluster analysis and standardized residuals were calculated to analyse the interaction among the contextual factors and the players' career performance. The data revealed that early-born players (Q1 and Q2) were over-represented. Moreover, players born in smaller cities (<100,000) were over-represented. The interaction analysis revealed that the players born in the bigger communities relate mainly with relatively younger players, and clusters that correspond to players born in smaller communities integrated the relatively older players. No differences were found in the players' career performance. Researchers, coaches and practitioners should be aware of the interaction between contextual factors to help nurture the development of sport talent regardless of age-related issues or communities' size.

Mechanisms explaining the birthplace effect for male elite football players

Earlier research shows that wide regional variations exist in the success of athletes' talent development but is divided with respect to the role of urbanity: both low and high urbanity have been identified as settings that contribute to the presence of talent hotspots. In this article, we intend to provide more insight into the role of urbanity in talent development in Dutch football. We used public data on the regional background of male elite players (N = 825) and combined this with public data on municipal characteristics from Statistics Netherlands and other sources: urbanity, football participation, instructional resources and population composition effects (migration background and income of inhabitants). Linear regression analysis showed that football participation, the proportion of non-western migrants and median income predict "talent yield", i.e., the proportion of young people that reach an elite level in a municipality. Urbanity does not have an independent influence when the proportion of non-western migrants in the municipality is taken into account. The presence of instructional resources does not have an independent influence. The results suggest that characteristics of the built environment, such as indoor and outdoor play opportunities, may be less influential in talent development than previously assumed.

Female Youth Soccer Participation and Continued Engagement: Associations With Community Size, Community Density, and Relative Age

Environmental context can impact youth engagement in sport and athlete development. Previous work has examined the population size of the birthplace of elite athletes; commonly known as the birthplace or community size effect. Community density has also been recognized as an important variable. Exact estimates for the ideal community characteristics and a thorough understanding of the underlying mechanisms has been somewhat elusive. Existing studies are cross-sectional in nature and there is evidence to suggest that significant variation exists within imposed categories. An athlete's birthdate position in a similar-age cohort can also impact development and has been associated with (dis)advantages resulting from subtle age differences (i.e., the relative age effect); it remains unknown if this variable is associated with population density. The objective of this study was to establish longitudinal participation trends among female youth soccer players in Ontario Canada, with consideration of community size, community density, and relative age. Within-category variation and associations between the variables were assessed. Registration entries at age 10 years (n = 9,826) and 16 years (n = 2,305) were isolated for analysis. Odds ratio analyses were conducted within each community size and density category for all 10 year old registrants; 95% confidence intervals were obtained. This procedure was repeated for all registrants at 16 years of age using the expected distribution at age 10 years to examine continued engagement. Findings suggest medium-sized communities (i.e., 10,000-249,999 inhabitants) provide the best odds of participation and continued engagement. Less densely populated communities (i.e., 50-<400 population/km2) appeared to be ideal for facilitating participation at age 10 years, but not for engagement at age 16 years. However, within-category variation was evident when each community was inspected individually. Consistent with previous attempts to find an association between community size and the relative age effect, there did not appear to be an association between community density and birth quartile distribution. Observations from this study show that community size and community density are truly unique and separate variables. Future studies should consider the underlying contributions to both low and high participation and continued engagement, while being mindful of within-category variation.

The Talent Development Pathway for Elite Basketball Players in China

A large portion of previous sport talent development research has been conducted using Western countries study subjects such as Canadian, Swedish, Spanish, British, or American athletes. However, the factors that affect oriental culture athletes remain an unexplored field. The aims of this investigation were to consolidate the exploration of the pilot study that studied the key factors for Chinese elite basketball players' careers and understand what facts have helped them to achieve the highest sportive level through qualitative research. The pathway to excellence of 11 Chinese elite basketball players were analyzed through a semi-structured interview with different categories such as social context, sport context, tactical factors, or anthropometric factors. Results showed that cultural factors, family tradition, academic studies, coaches, mental strength, training structuration, and international competitions had a great effect and influence in the talent development of Chinese basketball players.

A new approach to study the relative age effect with the use of additive logistic regression models: A case of study of FIFA football tournaments (1908-2012)

The relative age effect plays an important role in the pursuit of excellence, providing advantage to athletes born at the beginning of the year or near the cut-off date. This phenomenon has been observed in areas such as sports, education or business. Traditionally, the chi-square test has been used to analyze whether there are statistically significant differences in the distribution of births in each of the four quarters of the year. However, this approach is limited, focusing only on the analysis of the response variable, without taking into account the effect of a set of predictive variables. In this paper a new approach is proposed to study the relative age effect with the use of a logistic regression additive model. The new method has been evaluated with a sample of 21,639 players involved in football tournaments organized by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) between 1908 and 2012. New conclusions have been established that the relative age effect exists regarding player age and the year of the competition in male FIFA competitions and its effect is dynamic and complex.

The relative age effect in European elite soccer: A practical guide to Poisson regression modelling

Many disciplines of scholarship are interested in the Relative Age Effect (RAE), whereby age-banding confers advantages on older members of the cohort over younger ones. Most research does not test this relationship in a manner consistent with theory (which requires a decline in frequency across the cohort year), instead resorting to non-parametric, non-directional approaches. In this article, the authors address this disconnect, provide an overview of the benefits associated with Poisson regression modelling, and two managerially useful measures for quantifying RAE bias, namely the Indices of Discrimination and Wastage. In a tutorial-like exposition, applications and extensions of this approach are illustrated using data on professional soccer players competing in the top two tiers of the "Big Five" European football leagues in the search to identify paragon clubs, leagues, and countries from which others may learn to mitigate this form of age-discrimination in the talent identification process. As with OLS regression, Poisson regression may include more than one independent variable. In this way we test competing explanations of RAE; control for unwanted sources of covariation; model interaction effects (that different clubs and countries may not all be subject to RAE to the same degree); and test for non-monotonic versions of RAE suggested in the literature.

Heterogeneity in Community Size Effects: Exploring Variations in the Production of National Hockey League Draftees Between Canadian Cities

Previous research has explored ‘community size effects’ in a multitude of sporting and regional contexts and has shown that athletes are more likely to originate from small-medium population size categories, and less likely to originate from very small or large ones. However, it is not clear whether the production of athletes is homogenous within population size categories. Place of birth data were collected for all Canadian born hockey players drafted into the National Hockey League (NHL) from 2000–2014 from British Columbia (N = 192), Alberta (N = 218), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (N = 216), Ontario (N = 561), Quebec (N = 241), and the Atlantic Provinces (N = 74). To explore variations in the production of draftees within population size categories, proportions of productive cities, population mean (μ), population standard deviation (σ), as well as minimum/maximum values of the number of draftees were calculated for the different categories (<2,500; 2,500–4,999; 5,000–9,999; 10,000–29,999; 30,000–99,999; 100,000–249,999; 250,000–499,999; 500,000–999,999; >1,000,000). In addition, the number of draftees produced per 1,000 residents (i.e., yield) was calculated for each city within all categories. Results showed substantial intra-categorical variability in NHL talent development; moreover, heterogeneity in draftee production existed in various degrees across provincial regions of Canada. Intra-categorical variability suggests that a single homogenous community size effect may not exist for Canadian NHL draftees, and that future research may benefit from exploring other environmental constraints on athlete development such as income, population density, and proximity to local sport clubs.

Population density and proximity to junior developmental teams affect the development of National Hockey League draftees

Inconsistencies in community size effects found between and within countries (Baker et al Eur J Sport Sci. 2009;9:329-339; Bruner et al J Sports Sci. 2011;29:1337-1344; Wattie et al J Sports Sci. 2018;36:436-444) suggest population size may not be an accurate predictor of athlete development and that other proxies of early environmental characteristics are needed. Researchers have begun to explore the influence of population density and proximity to local sport clubs on athlete development in European countries; however, similar analysis remains to be conducted in Canadian ice hockey. The current study focused on National Hockey League (NHL) draftees and explored whether population density and proximity to Canadian Hockey League teams were associated with the number of draftees produced. Linear regression analyses showed a significant positive relationship between population density and the development of draftees in all provincial regions; however, a significant negative relationship between proximity to CHL teams and NHL draftee development was observed in four out of six provincial regions (British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Provinces). Moreover, population density appeared to be a better predictor of NHL talent development than proximity to CHL teams. Future research may benefit from exploring the effects of these two variables within population size categories, as well as between different regions within provinces.

Influence of population size, density, and proximity to talent clubs on the likelihood of becoming elite youth athlete

Previous studies have found significant differences in the likelihood of becoming an elite athlete depending on community population sizes and densities, an effect known as the place of early development, or birthplace effect. However, the results have not been consistent between sports or European countries. As both professional and voluntary clubs are vital to the talent development systems in Europe, the proximity of an athlete's place of early development to the location of talent clubs may be an important predictor of the likelihood of becoming an elite athlete. Therefore, the primary purpose of this study was to investigate the place of early development effect and the effect of proximity to talent clubs. The samples included elite youth league athletes (579 football and 311 handball) and national youth athletes (85 football and 80 handball) and a comparison group of 147 221 football and 26 290 handball youth athletes. Odds ratios showed variations in the optimal community size and density across sports. Geospatial analyses of proximity to talent clubs highlighted a trend indicating that most national and elite youth league athletes in both sports had their place of early development in their sport near a talent club. The results suggest that proximity is an important predictor in the development of expertise across sports, but future studies need to clarify if proximity is important in other countries and sports.

The Role of a Relative Age Effect in the 12th Winter European Youth Olympic Festival in 2015

The aim of this study was to define the role of the relative age effect in the 12th Winter European Youth Olympic Festival 2015. The birth dates of all 899 participants and anthropometric data of 655 participants were analyzed. A significant relative age effect was present in the total sample and among the male athletes but not in the female athletes. Additionally, a significant relative age effect was present in strength- and endurance-related sports but not in technique-related sports. Statistically significantly more older athletes won medals. Relative age had a strong influence on participation in strength- and endurance-related sports as well as on performance.

Seeing the forest but not the trees: Heterogeneity in community size effects in Canadian ice hockey players

The community size effect (or birthplace effect) suggests that high-performance athletes are less likely to emerge from regions with population sizes that are very small or very large. However, previous research on elite Canadian ice hockey players has not considered the influence of intra-national regional variation of population distributions with respect to community size effects. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to test the heterogeneity of the community size effect between Canadian National Hockey League draftees (2000-2014: n = 1505), from 7 provincial regions within Canada (i.e., British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces). The proportion of athletes in the 9 census population categories were compared to the national and regional general population distributions in the census categories. Results suggest variability of community size effects between the 7 provincial regions within Canada, with only the province of Ontario demonstrating a community size effect congruent with effects reported in previous research. Using regional general population distributions as the comparator to athlete populations changed the direction, meaningfulness and magnitude of community size effects. In conclusion, elite ice hockey player community size effects may not be generalisable to all regions within Canada.

The Great British Medalists Project: A Review of Current Knowledge on the Development of the World's Best Sporting Talent

The literature base regarding the development of sporting talent is extensive, and includes empirical articles, reviews, position papers, academic books, governing body documents, popular books, unpublished theses and anecdotal evidence, and contains numerous models of talent development. With such a varied body of work, the task for researchers, practitioners and policy makers of generating a clear understanding of what is known and what is thought to be true regarding the development of sporting talent is particularly challenging. Drawing on a wide array of expertise, we address this challenge by avoiding adherence to any specific model or area and by providing a reasoned review across three key overarching topics: (a) the performer; (b) the environment; and (c) practice and training. Within each topic sub-section, we review and calibrate evidence by performance level of the samples. We then conclude each sub-section with a brief summary, a rating of the quality of evidence, a recommendation for practice and suggestions for future research. These serve to highlight both our current level of understanding and our level of confidence in providing practice recommendations, but also point to a need for future studies that could offer evidence regarding the complex interactions that almost certainly exist across domains.

Relative age and birthplace effect in Japanese professional sports: a quantitative evaluation using a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model

Relative age effect (RAE) in sports has been well documented. Recent studies investigate the effect of birthplace in addition to the RAE. The first objective of this study was to show the magnitude of the RAE in two major professional sports in Japan, baseball and soccer. Second, we examined the birthplace effect and compared its magnitude with that of the RAE. The effect sizes were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with the number of players as dependent variable. The RAEs were 9.0% and 7.7% per month for soccer and baseball, respectively. These estimates imply that children born in the first month of a school year have about three times greater chance of becoming a professional player than those born in the last month of the year. Over half of the difference in likelihoods of becoming a professional player between birthplaces was accounted for by weather conditions, with the likelihood decreasing by 1% per snow day. An effect of population size was not detected in the data. By investigating different samples, we demonstrated that using quarterly data leads to underestimation and that the age range of sampled athletes should be set carefully.

Community size and sport participation across 22 countries

The objective of this study was to examine, across 22 countries, the association between community size and individual sport, team sport, and exercise participation. Hierarchal non-linear Bernoulli modeling is used to examine the association between community size (100,000-10,000; <10,000) and (a) individual sport, (b) team sport, and (c) exercise participation. After controlling for country-level clustering and demographic variables, those residing a community with between 100,000 and 10,000 residents are more likely to participate in individual sport [odds ratio (OR) = 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-1.23] while residing in a community with less than 10,000 residents is unrelated (OR = 1.06; 95% CI = 0.96-1.19). Those residing in communities with between 100,000 and 10,000 residents were more likely to participate in team sport (OR = 1.21; 95% CI = 1.01-1.45) while residing in a community with less than 10,000 residents is unrelated (OR = 1.02; 95% CI = 0.88-1.18). Residing in a community with between 100,000 and 10,000 residents is unrelated to exercise participation (OR = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.89-1.7), while residing in a community with less than 10,000 residents is negatively related to exercise participation (OR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.79-0.93). These findings provide novel evidence that communities between 100,000 and 10,000 residents are related to increased sport participation, particularly team sport participation.

Factors affecting the relative age effect in NHL athletes

BACKGROUND

The relative age effect (RAE) has been reported for a number of different activities. The RAE is the phenomena whereby players born in the first few months of a competition year are advantaged for selection to elite sports. Much of the literature has identified elite male athletics, such as the National Hockey League (NHL), as having consistently large RAEs. We propose that RAE may be lessened in the NHL since the last examination.

METHODS

We examined demographic and selection factors to understand current NHL selection biases.

RESULTS

We found that RAE was weak and was only evident when birth dates were broken into year halves. Players born in the first half of the year were relatively advantaged for entry into the NHL. We found that the RAE is smaller than reported in previous studies. Intraplayer comparisons for multiple factors, including place of birth, country of play, type of hockey played, height and weight, revealed no differences. Players who were not drafted (e.g., free agents) or who played university hockey in North America had no apparent RAE.

CONCLUSION

We found little evidence of an RAE in the current NHL player rosters. A larger study of all Canadian minor hockey intercity teams could help determine the existence of an RAE.

A behavioural dynamic model of the relative age effect

The relationship between date of birth and success in a variety of sports, including hockey, is well established. This phenomenon is known as the relative age effect (RAE). We model the RAE in Canadian youth hockey as a positive feedback loop where an initial age advantage is reinforced through additional training and playing opportunities based on perceived skill superiority. The same causal mechanism leads to a higher quit rate for relatively younger players. Our model effectively replicates the birth month distribution of Canadian National Hockey League players (R2 = 86.79%) when driven by Canadian birth distributions. We use this model to evaluate three policies that aim to lessen the RAE. All of the policies reduce the RAE with a significant delay. The most effective policy is a combination of providing additional support to age disadvantaged children and rotating the cut-off date for youth leagues between January 1st and July 1st annually. In equilibrium, this approach leads to a 96% reduction in the RAE compared to the base case.

The influence of birth date and place of development on youth sport participation

Previous research highlights the critical role that contextual factors play in shaping athlete development. The purpose of the present study was to investigate two of these contextual factors: birth date (known as the relative age effect, RAE) and city of development as determinants of participation in a sample of youth ice hockey players. The sample included 146,424 athletes registered with Ontario youth ice hockey between the 2004 and 2010 seasons. Chi-square statistics determined a significant RAE in youth ice hockey. Findings also revealed a significant association between small cities of development and increased youth ice hockey participation. Finally, there was no evidence of an interaction between relative age and city of development. The characteristics of smaller communities that may facilitate sport participation across all youth are discussed, along with recommendations for future research.