Understanding the "gut instinct" of expert coaches during talent identification

Exploring the role of socioeconomic status and psychological characteristics on talent development in an English soccer academy

Social factors and psychological characteristics can influence selection and development in talent pathways. However, the interaction between these two factors is relatively unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the implications of socioeconomic status and psychological characteristics in English academy soccer players (n = 58; aged 11 to 16 years). To assess socioeconomic status, participants' home postcodes were coded according to each individual's social classification and credit rating, applying the UK General Registrar Classification system and CameoTM geodemographic database, respectively. Participants also completed the six factor Psychological Characteristics for Developing Excellence Questionnaire (PCDEQ). A classification of 'higher-potentials' (n = 19) and 'lower-potentials' (n = 19) were applied through coach potential rankings. Data were standardised using z-scores to eliminate age bias and data were analysed using independent sample t-tests. Results showed that higher-potentials derived from families with significantly lower social classifications (p = 0.014) and reported higher levels for PCDEQ Factor 3 (coping with performance and developmental pressures) (p = 0.007) compared to lower-potentials. This study can be used to support the impetus for researchers and practitioners to consider the role of social factors and psychological characteristics when selecting and developing sporting talent. For example, facilitating player-centred development within an academy and, where necessary, providing individuals with additional support.

Developing the Physical Performance in Youth Soccer: Short-Term Effect of Dynamic-Ecological versus Traditional Training Approach for Sub-Elite U13 Players-An Ecological Exploratory Cluster Randomised Trial

Currently, research in youth soccer consists of methodological choices that can raise activity volumes and exercise intensity to promote proper training for youth soccer demands. Therefore, the present cluster randomised trial aims to evaluate the effects of the dynamic-ecological approach on the physical performance parameters compared with a traditional one in a group of sub-elite U13 players. Thirty-five male children (age 12.16 ± 0.55 years; weight 45.59 ± 7.15 kg; height 145.5 ± 4.2 cm; BMI 15.8 ± 2.1 kg·m-2) were recruited for this trial from two teams belonging to sub-elite soccer schools and randomly assigned to a dynamic-ecological approach (DEA) or a traditional training (TTG) group. The training program lasted six weeks and consisted of 18 training sessions of 90 min each (3 sessions per week). The sample was evaluated by the standing long jump (SLJ), hop test (HT), 10 m sprint (10 m), 10 × 5 m shuttle run test (SRT), and leg raise test (LR). The DEA group showed significantly higher results in the SLJ (p < 0.001), HT left leg (p < 0.001), 10 m sprint (p < 0.001), and SRT (p < 0.001). In conclusion, the dynamic-ecological approach provides higher performance adaptations. Therefore, this approach can be considered a suitable method to optimise pre-pubertal player training, mainly when no fitness or strength coach is available.

Heuristics in sport: A scoping review

Judgement and decision-making under uncertainty often rely on simplistic" rules of thumb", known as "heuristics". The purpose of this scoping review is to explore the extant literature focussed on heuristics and sport. This study employed a five-stage scoping review methodology. The databases searched were Scopus, Web of Science, SPORTDiscus, and PsycInfo. The search terms were sport*, heuristic* (and its synonyms: cognitive shortcut, shortcut, rule of thumb, mental rule, cognitive rule) plus cognitive bias. The search identified 2019 studies, of which 38 were included in the analysis. Studies based in USA and Germany were most common. The use of heuristics by players were most common, while football (soccer) and basketball were the most frequently researched sport contexts. Both males and females were commonly included in most studies, but there were no studies with an explicit focus on females. The research was contextualized within several academic disciplines (e.g., psychology, forecasting, JDM, organization behavior, sports marketing and sponsorship, coaching science, risk analysis and sociology). Approximately 80 % of the studies were quantitative. Sixteen studies examined the fast and frugal heuristics approach (i.e., take-the-first heuristic (n = 8), recognition heuristic (n = 7), or gut instinct (n = 1), whereas eleven articles embraced the heuristics and biases approach. Future research should pursue a greater variety of heuristics, investigate the use of heuristics by selectors and boards of directors, and how best to design, implement, and evaluate heuristic education programs.

Experienced academy soccer coaches' perspectives on players' skilfulness

INTRODUCTION

Soccer coaches are critical to academies as they are central to identifying players with the potential to succeed (i.e., talent). Research suggests coaches perceive skill as determining players' potential. Regardless, researchers only broadly explored their views and quantified players' skill using objective measures, which is problematic as coaches still rely on their subjective intuition. A plausible reason is that skill assessments do not meet coaches' needs.

OBJECTIVE

So,this study explored academy soccer coaches' perspectives on skilfulness.

METHODS

Participants required a minimum B-level AFC/FA Pro Coaching Licence and five years' experience for inclusion. Australian soccer coaches (n = 4) and academy directors (n = 7) (Mage = 35.90 ± 8.36 years; Mexperience = 14 ± 7.02 years) participated in semi-structured interviews (Mtime = 50.73 ± 7.33).

RESULTS

We analysed coaches' responses using reflexive thematic analysis, generating four themes describing skilful players as i) technically proficient, ii) adaptable, iii) effective decision-makers, and iv) influential to their team's success. We produced three themes on the situational and contextual nature of their views, perceiving skill through a v) developmental lens, relying on their vi) experiential knowledge, and their views were vii) context-specific.

CONCLUSION

Additional research is needed to create a refined conceptual model for assessing soccer skilfulness.

The decision-making in dribbling: a video analysis study of U10 soccer players' skills and coaches' quality evaluation

INTRODUCTION

Dribbling is an important soccer skill that, when effective, allows players to overcome opponents. It can provide a strong tactical advantage; for this reason, all of its components (sprint, speed, and ball control) are fundamental to the development of young players. Dribbling can also be considered a decision-making process, and due to its characteristics, it is not always easy to study ecologically. Using a video analysis study, this research aimed to determine whether dribbling skills, specifically dribbling choice (i.e., decision-making), were related to U10 soccer players' quality.

METHODS

Several outcomes measures, divided into three categories, were taken during video analyses: (i) measures related to the efficacy of dribbling skill; (ii) measures related to the ability of players without the ball to support the player in possession; and (iii) measures related to ball circulation. These data were retrospectively assessed to whether the coaches had formed the teams in training through an implicit knowledge of the players' dribbling skills.

RESULTS

The percentage of accurate dribbling (that is, the ability to perform correct passes after a successful dribble) was found to be the variable that coaches may have implicitly used in creating the three groups differentiated by technical skills (p < 0.05). In fact, this percentage was 12.9%, 24.0%, and 48.1% for the groups with lower, average, and higher technical skills, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the results demonstrate that dribbling accuracy has an important weight in the coach's evaluation of the technical skills level of young soccer players.

The effect of confounding variables on the relationship between anthropometric and physiological features in 2000-m rowing ergometer performance

Background: Anthropometric and physiological characteristics are often considered as potential variables that are significantly related with motor performance. Aim: The aim of this study was to identify and weigh the key anthropometric and physiological characteristics that are associated with 2000-m rowing ergometer performance in male and female athletes. Methods: The study involved 70 best female and 130 best male rowers from the seven largest Hungarian rowing clubs, classified into one of the following age categories: juniors (36 women and 55 men, age range: 15-16 years), older juniors (26 women and 52 men, age range: 17-18 years), and seniors (8 women and 23 men, age range: over 18 years). Anthropometric and body composition measurements were determined by the bioelectrical impedance method proposed by Weiner and Lourie (1969), and skin fold measurements were conducted to estimate relative body fat content. The countermovement jump test and the 2000-m maximal rowing ergometer test were used for physiological measurements. Results: An increase in skeletal muscle mass was correlated (r = -.39, p <.001) with a significant decrease in rowing time over a distance of 2000 m, whereas a significant increase in rowing time was noted with an increase in sitting height (only in men, r = .33, p <.001), body mass (in women and men: r = .24, p = .013 and r = .31, p = .009), and body fat percentage (r = .26, p < .030). Rowing time was also bound by a significant correlation with maximal force (r = -.79 and -.90, p <.001) and relative maximal power (r = -.54 and -.78, p <.001) in both sexes, with relative peak power in males (r = -.51, p < .001), and with estimated relative maximal aerobic capacity in females (r = -.43, p <.001). Conclusion: Rowing performance over a distance of 2000 m is significantly negatively correlated with the skeletal muscle mass, maximal force, relative maximal power, relative peak power, and estimated relative maximal aerobic capacity.

Observations of Player (de)Selection Within a Professional UK Soccer Academy

The present study engaged in an ethnographical observation of the processes used to determine player (de)selections within a professional academy. English category-2 youth academy players (n = 96) from U10-U16 age groups undertook anthropometric profiling (height, mass and somatic maturation) and fitness assessments (10 m, 20 m & 30 m linear sprints, 505-agility test, countermovement and squat jumps). Each players lead coach (n = 4) subjectively graded players utilising a red, amber and green (RAG) rating system on a weekly (current performance) and quarterly (perceived potential) basis, across 25 weeks. A MANCOVA, controlling for maturation, was applied to determine differences in (de)selection by physical performance. Mann Whitney-U tests were used to distinguish difference in (de)selection by subjective grading (weekly and quarterly). The key finding was that quarterly subjective gradings established a higher cumulative score of green ratings in selected players and a low cumulative score of red ratings, and vice versa for deselected players (P ≤ 0.001 to 0.03). However, whilst these findings suggest that quarterly subjective grades of potential were able to provide the best predictors for player (de)selection, the findings should be viewed with caution due to high potential for confirmatory bias.

Development and validity of the Subjective Training Quality scale

AbstractThis study aimed to define, develop, and validate a subjective scale of training quality. Two related studies were used to 1) define training quality and 2) develop and validate a subjective scale. Part One: a purposive sample of 15 sub-elite (i.e., national) and elite (i.e., international) swimmers participated in one, 20-30-min semi-structured interview. Thematic analysis of interview responses established three constructs to define training quality. These were the physical, technical, and mental aspects of training. Part Two: development of the Subjective Training Quality (STQ) scale based on the three constructs identified in Part One. 252 sub-elite and elite athletes, across eight sports completed the STQ scale. Cronbach's alpha (α) assessed internal consistency, histogram plot analysis assessed face validity, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) compared physical, technical, and mental constructs with training quality. Root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) and standardised root mean square residual (SRMR) evaluated CFA quality of fit. Physical, technical, and mental constructs demonstrated a high 'acceptable' level of internal consistency (α=0.85) and excellent face validity. Comparatively, the CFA quality of fit was 'excellent' (RMSEA=<0.01 'good', SRMR = 0.00 'perfect'). The STQ scale demonstrated excellent internal consistency and face validity, establishing capacity to monitor training quality. The STQ scale could be used in conjunction with traditional training monitoring tools to provide additional insight into athlete's training quality. Further investigation is required to determine how the STQ scale may interact with subjective and objective training performance measures, and how it could be incorporated into daily training monitoring.

Sources of information used by elite distance running coaches for selection decisions

Talent identification and selection are critical components of competitive sport success. Despite the time, effort, and resources invested, the accuracy of selection decisions remains generally poor. While much of the scholarship in this area has focused on the factors discriminating skilled and less-skilled individuals, limited research exists on what information is used in the decision-making process for athlete selection. The current study seeks to gain a better understanding of the information used by elite distance running coaches when forming judgements for athlete selection. Ten semi-structured interviews with elite distance running coaches from across Canada were transcribed and analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. It was interpreted that coaches mainly gather information using their coach’s eye to determine an athlete’s ‘fit’ to the team. Coaches also use more objective information such as race times and movement analyses to assess performance and judge future ‘potential’. As well, the decisions were believed to be influenced by situational considerations at the time of the selection procedure. Specifically, these considerations affecting a coach’s selection included length of time to make a decision, personal limitations in decision-making abilities, and team circumstances. Interestingly, coaches recognized limitations in their selection practices and procedures and discussed some of their personal and system-level biases, highlighting their awareness of potential selection inefficiencies/inaccuracies. Overall, distance running coaches used a variety of techniques to gather information before a selection was made, relying on both subjective and objective information for crafting judgments. Findings are discussed in relation to implications for coaches, sport organizations, and talent identification and selection programs.

The relative age effect in the Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA): A mixed methods approach

In the Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA), Talent Academies (TAs) and senior teams cater for high performing players, however only two previous studies have quantified the relative age effect (RAE; i.e., a selection bias favouring those born near the beginning of the cut-off date) in these cohorts. Additionally, no studies to date have explored stakeholder understanding of the RAE using qualitative methods. This study aimed to: (a) quantify the RAE in TAs and senior teams, and (b) investigate stakeholder perspectives of the talent development environment, providing practical insight into the RAE. A mixed methods sequential explanatory study design was employed. Phase one involved a retrospective analysis of longitudinal data for the frequency and distribution of births using TA (n=12,445) and senior (n=8,752) players. Phase two comprised two focus groups of key stakeholders [coaches (n=4) and Talent Development Leaders (n=4)] at TA and senior level. Analysis revealed a significant difference between TA birth quarter (BQ) distributions compared with expected distributions across all age groups (P<0.001; BQ1=30.4% vs. BQ4=17.6%), while at senior level, there were no significant differences between observed and expected BQ distributions (χ² (df=3) =3.812, P=0.282). In phase two, inductive analysis revealed three higher order themes: (a) understanding of the RAE, (b) selection criteria, and (c) player characteristics. The GAA are encouraged to reflect on the practice of chronological age band grouping, investigate possible solutions to limit the effects of the RAE, and offer support programmes to educate key stakeholders on the potential impact of the RAE on talent development.

Successful Young Athletes Have Low Probability of Being Ranked Among the Best Senior Athletes, but This Is Higher When Compared to Their Less Successful Peers

Background

Contemporary research has shown that only a small proportion of high achieving young athletes continue to become successful senior athletes. However, there is a lack of empirical literature tracking the success of senior male and female athletes who were considered high achieving as a youth.

Hypothesis

Athletes of both sexes who are successful in youth categories (U18 and U20) are more likely to be successful senior athletes.

Conclusion

Data from 67,600 athletes were collated from the tilastopaja.org platform. The inclusion criteria for both genders were determined by top-100 ranking in the U18 and U20 age groups and progression to the top-100 as a senior athlete. Only 23.5% of successful track and field athletes (ranked in top-100) at U18 became a successful senior athlete, while 35.4% were from the U20 group. Girls ranked in the top-100 U18 and U20 categories are significantly more likely to be ranked in the top-100 as a senior when compared to boys. Although, being ranked in the top-50 at U18 and U20 significantly increases the probability of becoming a successful senior athlete when compared with less successful athletes at these age groups (p < 0.001). Notably, the majority (68.5%) of the most successful senior athletes were not ranked in the top-100 when in the U18 or U20 age groups. Only a small group of track and field athletes that are successful at U18 and U20 become successful at senior level. The most successful track and field youth athletes are significantly more likely to succeed as a senior athlete than their less successful peers, while girls are more likely to be successful than boys.

Predictive Value of Technical Throwing Skills on Nomination Status in Youth and Long-Term Career Attainment in Handball

BACKGROUND

Research on talent in sports aims to identify predictors of future performance. This study retrospectively investigated 1) relationships between young handball field players' technical throwing skills and (a) their potential nomination to youth national teams and (b) their long-term career attainment 10 years later, and 2) associations between nomination status and career attainment.

RESULTS

Results from retrospectively predicting nomination status and career attainment using logistic regression analyses show that technical throwing skills were partly able to explain players' nomination status (Nagelkerke R2: females 9.2%, males 13.1%) and career attainment (Nagelkerke R2: 9.8% for female players). Here, variables throwing velocity and time on exercise showed statistically significant effects. In addition, nomination status and career attainment were shown to be associated using chi-square tests (w of .37 and .23 for female and male players, respectively) and nomination status as a predictor increased the prediction of career attainment remarkably (Nagelkerke R2: females 20.3%, males 12.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Given these results, basic technical throwing skills may serve rather as a prerequisite in this age group on national level, emphasizing its importance already on lower levels and in younger age groups. Furthermore, advantages from entering the national TID system early especially for females are discussed.

Storm Clouds on the Horizon: On the Emerging Need to Tighten Selection Policies

Athlete selection is fundamental in elite sport, occurring regularly throughout an athlete's development. Research in this area reveals the accuracy of these decisions is questionable in even the most elite sport environments and athletes are increasingly disputing these decisions as unfair and punitive. As a countermeasure to these dispute and arbitration practices, many elite sport systems have created policies where coaches must outline and stand behind the criteria used for their selection decisions. Selection criteria policies have the potential to help encourage fair selection practices by holding selectors accountable to their selection criteria, but their implementation also has the potential to wrongfully nudge selectors toward developing more defendable, but less-accurate selection practices. The paper concludes with 10 suggestions to help support practitioners when implementing selection criteria.

Pilot Study on the Reliability of the Coach's Eye: Identifying Talent Throughout a 4-Day Cadet Judo Camp

A typical assumption found in talent identification literature is that different coaches, given the same athletes and circumstances, will identify the same subset of athletes as “talented”. However, while coaches play a major role during talent identification in practical sport settings, there is limited empirical research exploring the processes which underpin this. The purpose of this study was to explore the reliability of “the coach's eye” during the assessment of talent in a group of athletes. Specifically, this project compared inter-coach agreement between nine judo coaches (ages 35.8 ± 10.6 years) with varying levels of experience (12.9 ± 8.9 years) in the evaluation of 24 talented cadet judo athletes (13–15 years) at seven timepoints throughout a 4-day development training camp. Without discussion of their scores with other coaches, coaches provided a single score representing each athlete's “potential for future performance” on an 11-point Likert scale at each timepoint. Scores from each coach were converted into rankings from 1 to 24 to create a normalized scale to facilitate comparison of athletes. Based on their rankings at each timepoint, athletes were placed into one of three evenly distributed groups (high, medium, and low rank). Inter-coach agreement at each timepoint was determined by the number of coaches who ranked each athlete in the same group, categorized at three levels: 50, 75 or 100% agreement. Overall results showed that at completion of the camp, coaches reached 100% agreement on only two athletes, both of whom were in the high rank group. When inter-coach agreement was set at 50%, 15 athletes (62.5%) were placed into like groups. The first timepoint at which coaches were able to differentiate between the majority of athletes was Timepoint 3 (end of day 2). The findings suggest that, in isolation, coaches do not agree on the talent or potential of athletes. This indicates that the “coach's eye” is subjective and variable, and, given the same context, there is poor inter-coach agreement in the identification of talented athletes. In turn, these findings may have significant implications for both future talent identification research and athlete selection processes by sport organizations.