Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles

A Unified Multi-Functional Dynamic Spectrum Access Framework: Tutorial, Theory and Multi-GHz Wideband Testbed

Dynamic spectrum access is a must-have ingredient for future sensors that are ideally cognitive. The goal of this paper is a tutorial treatment of wideband cognitive radio and radar—a convergence of (1) algorithms survey, (2) hardware platforms survey, (3) challenges for multi-function (radar/communications) multi-GHz front end, (4) compressed sensing for multi-GHz waveforms—revolutionary A/D, (5) machine learning for cognitive radio/radar, (6) quickest detection, and (7) overlay/underlay cognitive radio waveforms. One focus of this paper is to address the multi-GHz front end, which is the challenge for the next-generation cognitive sensors. The unifying theme of this paper is to spell out the convergence for cognitive radio, radar, and anti-jamming. Moore’s law drives the system functions into digital parts. From a system viewpoint, this paper gives the first comprehensive treatment for the functions and the challenges of this multi-function (wideband) system. This paper brings together the inter-disciplinary knowledge.

Statistical surveillance of epidemics: peak detection of influenza in Sweden

A statistical surveillance system gives a signal as soon as data give enough evidence of an important event. We consider on-line surveillance systems for detecting changes in influenza incidence. One important feature of the influenza cycle is the start of the influenza season, and another one is the change to a decline (the peak). In this report we discuss statistical methods for on-line peak detection. One motive for doing this is the need for health resource planning. Surveillance systems were adapted for Swedish data on laboratory verified diagnoses of influenza. In Sweden, the parameters of the influenza cycles vary too much from year to year for parametric methods to be useful. We suggest a non-parametric method based on the monotonicity properties of the increase and decline around a peak. A Monte Carlo study indicated that this method has useful stochastic properties. The method was applied to Swedish data on laboratory verified diagnoses of influenza for seven periods.