A frailty modeling approach for parental effects in animal breeding

Improving roadside design policies for safety enhancement using hazard-based duration modeling

Roadway departure (RwD) crashes, comprising run-off-road (ROR) and cross-median/centerline head-on collisions, are one of the most lethal crash types. Nationwide, from 2014 to 2016, annual RwD crashes accounted for 53% of all motor vehicle traffic fatalities. Several factors may cause a driver leave the travel lane, including an avoidance maneuver and inattention or fatigue. Roadway and roadside geometric design features (e.g., lane widths and clear zones) play a significant role in whether human error results in a crash. In this paper, we present a hazard-based duration model to investigate the distance traveled by an errant vehicle in a run-off-road crash, the stopping hazard rates, and associated risk factors. For this study, we obtained five years' (2010-2014) of crash data related to roadway departures (i.e., overturn and fixed-object crashes) from the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Safety Information System Database. The results indicate that over 50% of the observed vehicles traveled no more than 36 ft. in a ROR crash and 25% of the observed vehicles traveled at least 78 ft. We also found that seasonal, roadway, and crash variables, along with vehicle information and driver characteristics significantly contributed to the distances traveled by errant vehicles in ROR crashes. This paper presents methodological empirical evidence that the Cox proportional-hazards model is appropriate for investigating the distances traveled by errant vehicles in ROR crashes. In addition, it also provides valuable information for traffic design and management agencies to improve roadside design policies and implementing appropriately forgiving roadsides for errant vehicles.

Quantifying intraclass correlations for count and time-to-event data

The intraclass correlation is commonly used with clustered data. It is often estimated based on fitting a model to hierarchical data and it leads, in turn, to several concepts such as reliability, heritability, inter-rater agreement, etc. For data where linear models can be used, such measures can be defined as ratios of variance components. Matters are more difficult for non-Gaussian outcomes. The focus here is on count and time-to-event outcomes where so-called combined models are used, extending generalized linear mixed models, to describe the data. These models combine normal and gamma random effects to allow for both correlation due to data hierarchies as well as for overdispersion. Furthermore, because the models admit closed-form expressions for the means, variances, higher moments, and even the joint marginal distribution, it is demonstrated that closed forms of intraclass correlations exist. The proposed methodology is illustrated using data from agricultural and livestock studies.