Testing symmetry based on empirical likelihood

From Chaos to Ordering: New Studies in the Shannon Entropy of 2D Patterns

Properties of the Voronoi tessellations arising from random 2D distribution points are reported. We applied an iterative procedure to the Voronoi diagrams generated by a set of points randomly placed on the plane. The procedure implied dividing the edges of Voronoi cells into equal or random parts. The dividing points were then used to construct the following Voronoi diagram. Repeating this procedure led to a surprising effect of the positional ordering of Voronoi cells, reminiscent of the formation of lamellae and spherulites in linear semi-crystalline polymers and metallic glasses. Thus, we can conclude that by applying even a simple set of rules to a random set of seeds, we can introduce order into an initially disordered system. At the same time, the Shannon (Voronoi) entropy showed a tendency to attain values that are typical for completely random patterns; thus, the Shannon (Voronoi) entropy does not distinguish the short-range ordering. The Shannon entropy and the continuous measure of symmetry of the patterns demonstrated the distinct asymptotic behavior, while approaching the close saturation values with the increase in the number of iteration steps. The Shannon entropy grew with the number of iterations, whereas the continuous measure of symmetry of the same patterns demonstrated the opposite asymptotic behavior. The Shannon (Voronoi) entropy is not an unambiguous measure of order in the 2D patterns. The more symmetrical patterns may demonstrate the higher values of the Shannon entropy.

The doubling time analysis for modified infectious disease Richards model with applications to COVID-19 pandemic

In the absence of reliable information about transmission mechanisms for emerging infectious diseases, simple phenomenological models could provide a starting point to assess the potential outcomes of unfolding public health emergencies, particularly when the epidemiological characteristics of the disease are poorly understood or subject to substantial uncertainty. In this study, we employ the modified Richards model to analyze the growth of an epidemic in terms of 1) the number of times cumulative cases double until the epidemic peaks and 2) the rate at which the intervals between consecutive doubling times increase during the early ascending stage of the outbreak. Our theoretical analysis of doubling times is combined with rigorous numerical simulations and uncertainty quantification using synthetic and real data for COVID-19 pandemic. The doubling-time approach allows to employ early epidemic data to differentiate between the most dangerous threats, which double in size many times over the intervals that are nearly invariant, and the least transmissible diseases, which double in size only a few times with doubling periods rapidly growing.