Accurate population-based model for individual prediction of colon cancer recurrence

P4HA3 promotes colon cancer cell escape from macrophage phagocytosis by increasing phagocytosis immune checkpoint CD47 expression

Cancer immunotherapies have greatly changed the prospects for the therapy of many malignancies, including colon cancer. Macrophages as the effectors of cancer immunotherapy provide considerable promise for cancer treatment. Prolyl 4-hydroxylase subunit alpha 3 (P4HA3) plays a cancer-promoting role in a variety of cancers, including colon cancer. In the present work, we provided evidence for the first time that P4HA3 promoted colon cancer cell escape from macrophage phagocytosis, and preliminarily explored its possible molecular mechanism. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression of P4HA3 in tissues. Bioinformatics methods were used to analyze the tumor public databases (including TCGA database and GEO database). Macrophage phagocytosis assay and flow cytometric analysis were used to detect the phagocytic capacity of macrophages. Western blot and qRT-PCR were used to detect the expression of related markers (such as P4HA3, CD47, CD24, IL-34, and M-CSF). First, we found that P4HA3 was significantly and highly expressed in both colon cancer tissues and cells, and that P4HA3 had a positive correlation with lymph node metastasis, Dukes stage and also strongly correlated with poorer survival. Subsequently, we found that P4HA3 was strongly associated with the macrophage infiltration level in colon cancer. Immediately we also found that decreasing P4HA3 expression promoted macrophage phagocytosis in colon cancer cells, whereas P4HA3 overexpression produced the opposite effect. Finally, we demonstrated that P4HA3 promoted the expression of cluster of differentiation 47 (CD47) in colon cancer cells. Moreover, P4HA3 caused colon cancer cells to secrete Interleukin 34 (IL34) and Macrophage colony stimulating factor (M-CSF), which further induced macrophages to differentiate to M2 type and thereby contributed to the progression of colon cancer. We have demonstrated that P4HA3-driven CD47 overexpression may act as an escape mechanism, causing colon cancer cells to evade phagocytosis from macrophages.

The prognostic and predictive significance of perineural invasion in stage I to III colon cancer: a propensity score matching-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) presents with varying prognoses, and identifying factors for predicting metastasis and outcomes is crucial. Perineural invasion (PNI) is a debated prognostic factor for CRC, particularly in stage I-III patients, but its role in guiding adjuvant chemotherapy for node-positive colon cancer remains uncertain.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center study using data from the Colorectal Section Tumor Registry Database at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taiwan. This prospective study involved 3,327 CRC patients, 1,536 of whom were eligible after application of the exclusion criteria, to investigate the prognostic value of PNI in stage I-III patients and its predictive value for node-positive/negative cancer patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to minimize selection bias, and follow-up was performed with standardized procedures.

RESULTS

PNI-positive (PNI+) tumors were associated with higher preoperative CEA levels and more frequent adjuvant chemotherapy. After PSM, PNI + tumors were associated with marginally significantly lower 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and significantly lower overall survival (OS) rates in stages III CRC. However, no significant differences were observed in stages I and II. Subgroup analysis showed that among PNI + tumors, only poorly differentiated tumors had higher odds of recurrence. PNI did not predict outcomes in node-negative colon cancer. Adjuvant chemotherapy benefited PNI + patients with node-positive but not those with node-negative disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicates that PNI is an independent poor prognostic factor in stage III colon cancer but does not predict outcomes in node-negative disease. Given the potential adverse effects of adjuvant chemotherapy, our findings discourage its use in node-negative colon cancer when PNI is present.

Validation of a Clinical Calculator Predicting Freedom From Colon Cancer Recurrence After Surgery on the Basis of Molecular and Clinical Variables

BACKGROUND

The Memorial Sloan Kettering clinical calculator for estimating the likelihood of freedom from colon cancer recurrence on the basis of clinical and molecular variables was developed at a time when testing for microsatellite instability was performed selectively, based on patient age, family history, and histologic features. Microsatellite stability was assumed if no testing was done.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to validate the calculator in a cohort of patients who had all been tested for microsatellite instability.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort analysis.

SETTINGS

Comprehensive cancer center.

PATIENTS

This study included consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for stage I, II, or III colon cancer between 2017 and 2019.

INTERVENTION

Universal testing of mircrosatellite phenotype in all cases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The calculator's predictive accuracy was assessed using the concordance index and a calibration plot of predicted versus actual freedom from recurrence at 3 years after surgery. For a secondary sensitivity analysis, the presence of a tumor deposit(s) (disease category N1c) was considered equivalent to one positive lymph node (category N1a).

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 32 months among survivors, the concordance index for the 745 patients in the cohort was 0.748 (95% CI, 0.693-0.801), and a plot of predicted versus observed recurrences approached the 45° diagonal, indicating good discrimination and calibration. In the secondary sensitivity analysis for tumor deposits, the concordance index was 0.755 (95% CI, 0.700-0.806).

LIMITATIONS

This study was limited by its retrospective, single-institution design.

CONCLUSIONS

These results, based on inclusion of actual rather than imputed microsatellite stability status and presence of tumor deposits, confirm the predictive accuracy and reliability of the calculator. See Video Abstract .

VALIDACIN DE UNA CALCULADORA CLNICA QUE PREDICE LA AUSENCIA DE RECURRENCIA POSTQUIRURGICA DEL CNCER DE COLON SOBRE LA BASE DE VARIABLES MOLECULARES Y CLNICAS

ANTECEDENTES:La calculadora clínica del Memorial Sloan Kettering para la estimación de la probabilidad de ausencia de recurrencia del cáncer de colon sobre la base de variables clínicas y moleculares, se desarrolló en un momento en que las pruebas para la inestabilidad de microsatélites se realizaban de forma selectiva, basadas en la edad del paciente, los antecedentes familiares y las características histológicas. Se asumía la estabilidad micro satelital si no se realizaba ninguna prueba.OBJETIVO:El objetivo de este estudio fue validar la calculadora en una cohorte de pacientes a los que se les había realizado la prueba de inestabilidad de microsatélites.DISEÑO:Análisis de cohorte retrospectivo.AJUSTE:Centro integral de cáncer.PACIENTES:Pacientes consecutivos con cáncer de colon que fueron sometidos a resección curativa por cáncer de colon en estadios I, II o III entre los años 2017 y 2019.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:La precisión predictiva de la calculadora fue evaluada mediante el índice de concordancia y un gráfico de calibración de la ausencia de recurrencia predecida versus la real a los 3 años tras la cirugía. A los efectos de un análisis secundario de sensibilidad, la presencia de depósito(s) tumoral(es) (categoría de enfermedad N1c) se consideró equivalente a un ganglio linfático positivo (categoría N1a).RESULTADOS:Con una mediana de seguimiento de 32 meses entre los supervivientes, el índice de concordancia para los 745 pacientes de la cohorte fue de 0,748 (intervalo de confianza del 95 %, 0,693 a 0,801), y una gráfica de recurrencias previstas versus observadas se acercó a la diagonal de 45°, indicando una buena discriminación y calibración. En el análisis secundario de sensibilidad para depósitos tumorales, el índice de concordancia fue de 0,755 (intervalo de confianza del 95 %, 0,700 a 0,806).LIMITACIONES:Diseño retrospectivo, institución única.CONCLUSIONES:Estos resultados, basados en la inclusión real del estado de estabilidad de microsatélites en lugar de imputado y la presencia de depósitos tumorales, confirman la precisión predictiva y la confiabilidad de la calculadora. (Traducción-Dr Osvaldo Gauto ).

Sex differences in metastatic surgery following diagnosis of synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer

The aim was to investigate gender differences in the likelihood to receive metastatic surgery, and to compare overall survival between men and women, among patients with synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) in a population-based setting. All Swedish adult patients diagnosed with synchronous mCRC in 2007-2016 were identified using the nationwide colorectal cancer database (CRCBaSe). Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, comparing the odds of receiving treatment. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival proportions and Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of all-cause mortality rates. All multivariable models were adjusted for age, ASA score, Charlson comorbidity index, year of diagnosis, location of primary tumor and single or multiple metastatic locations. A total of 12 201 patients met the study criteria. Women received 23% less metastatic surgery for mCRC (adjusted OR = 0.77, CI:0.69-0.86) and experienced a slightly higher mortality following diagnosis (adjusted HR = 1.09, CI:1.05-1.14). In analyses restricted to patients who received metastatic surgery, no significant differences in mortality were found. In conclusion, this population-based study showed that women less often received metastatic surgery of mCRC and experienced slightly higher all-cause mortality compared with men. The differences persisted despite adjustments of patient and cancer characteristics. Gender differences in receiving treatment are unacceptable if the underlying explanation cannot be motivated. Further studies are needed to understand if the differences are based on sex (i.e., biology) or gender (including clinically unmotivated differences in treatment approach).

Artificial Intelligence-Based Prediction of Recurrence after Curative Resection for Colorectal Cancer from Digital Pathological Images

BACKGROUND

To develop an artificial intelligence-based model to predict recurrence after curative resection for stage I-III colorectal cancer from digitized pathological slides.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, 471 consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for stage I-III colorectal cancer at our institution from 2004 to 2015 were enrolled, and 512 randomly selected tiles from digitally scanned images of hematoxylin and eosin-stained tumor tissue sections were used to train a convolutional neural network. Five-fold cross-validation was used to validate the model. The association between recurrence and the model's output scores were analyzed in the test cohorts.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the cross-validation was 0.7245 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6707-0.7783; P < 0.0001]. The score successfully classified patients into those with better and worse recurrence free survival (P < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that a high score was significantly associated with worse recurrence free survival [odds ratio (OR) 1.857; 95% CI 1.248-2.805; P = 0.0021], which was independent from other predictive factors: male sex (P = 0.0238), rectal cancer (P = 0.0396), preoperative abnormal carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (P = 0.0216), pathological T3/T4 stage (P = 0.0162), and pathological positive lymph node metastasis (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The artificial intelligence-based prediction model discriminated patients with a high risk of recurrence. This approach could help decision-makers consider the benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy.

Temporal development in survival, and gender and regional differences in the Swedish population of patients with synchronous and metachronous metastatic colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) has markedly improved in patients included in clinical trials. In population-based materials, improvements were seen until about a decade ago, but it is unclear if survival has continued to improve. It is also unclear if regional or gender differences exist.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

All patients with mCRC (N = 19,566) in Sweden between 2007 and 2016 were identified from the national quality register, SCRCR, with almost complete coverage. Overall survival (OS) from diagnosis of metastatic disease was calculated in two calendar periods, 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. Differences between groups were compared using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Median age was 72 years, 55% were males, synchronous presentation was seen in 13,630 patients and metachronous in 5936. In synchronous disease, the primary tumour was removed more often during the first than the second period (51% vs 41%, p < 0.001). Median OS (mOS) was 14.0 months. It was longer in those with metachronous than synchronous disease (17.6 vs 13.1 months, p < 0.001) and in males (15.0 vs 12.8 months, p < 0.001), and markedly influenced by age and primary location. It was longer in patients diagnosed during the second period than during the first (14.9 vs 13.1 months, HR 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.92), p < 0.001). This difference was seen in all subgroups according to sex, age, presentation, and sidedness. mOS was about one month shorter in 1/6 healthcare regions, most pronounced during the first period. Differences in median of up to 5 months were seen between the region with the shortest and longest mOS.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall survival in Swedish patients with mCRC has improved during the past decade but is still substantially worse than reported from clinical trials/hospital-based series, reflecting the selection of patients to trials. Regional differences were seen, but they decreased with time. Women did not have a poorer prognosis in multivariable analyses.

Predictive and Prognostic Assessment Models for Tumor Deposit in Colorectal Cancer Patients With No Distant Metastasis

Background

More and more evidence indicated that tumor deposit (TD) was significantly associated with local recurrence, distant metastasis (DM), and poor prognosis for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aims to explore the main clinical risk factors for the presence of TD in CRC patients with no DM (CRC-NDM) and the prognostic factors for TD-positive patients after surgery.

Methods

The data of patients with CRC-NDM between 2010 and 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors for TD presence. Fine and Gray’s competing-risk model was performed to analyze prognostic factors for TD-positive CRC-NDM patients. A predictive nomogram was constructed using the multivariate logistic regression model. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the calibration were used to evaluate the predictive nomogram. Also, a prognostic nomogram was built based on multivariate competing-risk regression. C-index, the calibration, and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were performed to validate the prognostic model.

Results

The predictive nomogram to predict the presence of TD had a C-index of 0.785 and AUC of 0.787 and 0.782 in the training and validation sets, respectively. From the competing-risk analysis, chemotherapy (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.542, p < 0.001) can significantly reduce CRC-specific death (CCSD). The prognostic nomogram for the outcome prediction in postoperative CRC-NDM patients with TD had a C-index of 0.727. The 5-year survival of CCSD was 17.16%, 36.20%, and 63.19% in low-, medium-, and high-risk subgroups, respectively (Gray’s test, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

We constructed an easily predictive nomogram in identifying the high-risk TD-positive CRC-NDM patients. Besides, a prognostic nomogram was built to help clinicians identify poor-outcome individuals in postoperative CRC-NDM patients with TD. For the high-risk or medium-risk subgroup, additional chemotherapy may be more advantageous for the TD-positive patients rather than radiotherapy.