Gaps in hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in a United States cohort of insured patients with cirrhosis

Trends in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mortality Rates in the US and Projections Through 2040

Importance

The burden of liver cancer varies worldwide. An upward trend in both hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and mortality in the past 2 decades has been observed.

Objective

To assess observed HCC-related age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) in the US for 2006 to 2022 and provide ASMR projections through 2040.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data from the National Vital Statistics System, which is accessible through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research website. Data on deaths attributed to HCC (from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2022) were obtained for adults 25 years or older and were stratified by liver disease etiology, age, sex, and race and ethnicity. Etiologies included alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were (1) observed ASMRs of HCC per 100 000 persons using Joinpoint regression (National Cancer Institute) to assess trends during 2006 to 2022 and (2) ASMRs projected for 2023 to 2040 using Prophet and AutoARIMA modeling.

Results

This study included 188 280 HCC-related deaths from 2006 to 2022. Most deaths occurred among males (77.4%). The annual percentage change was 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2% to 7.7%) for 2006 to 2009 and decreased to 1.8% (95% CI, 0.7% to 2.0%) for 2009 to 2022, with an overall observed ASMR of 5.03 per 100 000 persons in 2022 and a projected ASMR of 6.39 per 100 000 persons by 2040, with consistent trends for both sexes. By etiology, ASMRs decreased for HCV- and HBV-related mortality but increased for ALD- and MASLD-related mortality. In 2022, MASLD surpassed HBV as the third-leading cause of HCC-related death and was projected to overtake HCV in 2032 as the second-leading cause; ALD was projected to be the leading cause of HCC-related death in 2026. In 2022, the ASMR was higher among individuals aged 65 years or older compared with those aged 25 to 64 years (18.37 vs 1.79 per 100 000 persons). The American Indian or Alaska Native population had the largest increase in projected ASMR by 2040 (14.71 per 100 000 persons) compared with the Asian population (3.03 per 100 000 persons).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, ASMRs for ALD- and MASLD-related HCC death increased rapidly from 2006 to 2022; ALD-related HCC was projected to be the leading cause by 2026, with MASLD as the second-leading cause by 2032. These findings may serve as a reference for public health decision-making and timely identification of groups at high risk of HCC death.

A Chronic Hepatitis B Identification and Surveillance Program Improves Care in an Integrated Health Plan

INTRODUCTION

Optimal management of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) requires surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and identification of antiviral therapy candidates, but few dedicated CHB surveillance models have been described. Kaiser Permanente Northern California developed a systematic CHB surveillance and management program in 2012. We report the results of the program's performance over the initial 8-year period.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all patients with CHB meeting guideline criteria for HCC surveillance. Eligible patients were invited into the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Liver Care Program (LCP), wherein patients receive reminders to obtain semiannual laboratory and imaging surveillance, which are reviewed by nurse practitioners. Treatment-eligible patients are provided with antiviral medications.

RESULTS

Since its inception, 14,630 patients met study criteria, and 9,373 (64.1%) enrolled in the LCP. Adherence to imaging recommendations was higher in the LCP-managed group (41.5% of patients in the LCP received ≥80% of recommended imaging compared with 10.9% among patients not enrolled [risk ratio = 3.8; P < 0.001]). Approximately 63% of treatment-eligible patients in both groups received medication, although full-adherence rates were higher in patients managed in the LCP (72.3% vs 63.4%, respectively, P < 0.001). Among the 197 patients who developed HCC, recommended surveillance imaging was performed more frequently among LCP-managed patients (71.4% vs 53.8%, respectively, P < 0.05) who were also significantly more likely to be diagnosed at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage 0/A (95.9% vs 74.6%; P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

In this integrated healthcare system, a systematic program for surveilling and managing patients with CHB seemed beneficial for both process and clinical endpoints.

Financial Burden of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The overall value of hepatocellular carcinoma screening is defined by the balance of benefits and harms. Studies have only reported physical harms with none describing financial harms.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter pragmatic randomized clinical trial of hepatocellular carcinoma screening outreach among 2872 patients with cirrhosis from March 2018 to April 2021. Patients with positive or indeterminate results and matched patients with negative results completed surveys at baseline and at follow-up measuring financial harms via Cancer Self-Administered Questionnaire and financial burden via Comprehensive Score for Financial Toxicity Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy. Univariable and multivariable longitudinal regression analyses were performed to compare changes in financial harms across groups: true positive, true negative, false positive, and indeterminate. Semistructured interviews were conducted in a subset of patients, sampled by center and test result.

RESULTS

Of 311 patients who completed at least 1 follow-up survey (75% response rate), 37 had true positive, 133 true negative, 64 false positive, and 77 indeterminate results. Financial harms increased in true positive and false positive patients with no significant changes noted among those with true negative or indeterminate results. At follow-up, 21.8% of patients reported moderate-severe financial burden, which was not significantly associated with test results. Semistructured interviews revealed variation in the frequency and severity of financial harms based on test results, with increased harm in those with false positive results.

CONCLUSIONS

Financial harms of hepatocellular carcinoma screening vary by test result and can pose a barrier that must be considered when determining the optimal screening program.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Non-Contrast Abbreviated Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Cirrhosis

Background/Aims

Ultrasonography has a low sensitivity for detecting early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients. Non-contrast abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging (aMRI) demonstrated a comparable performance to that of magnetic resonance imaging without the risk of contrast media exposure and at a lower cost than that of full diagnostic MRI. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of non-contrast aMRI for HCC surveillance in cirrhotic patients, using ultrasonography with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) as a reference.

Methods

Cost-utility analysis was performed using a Markov model in Thailand and the United States. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated using the total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained in each strategy. Surveillance protocols were considered cost-effective based on a willingness-to-pay value of $4,665 (160,000 Thai Baht) in Thailand and $50,000 in the United States.

Results

aMRI was cost-effective in both countries with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $3,667/QALY in Thailand and $37,062/QALY in the United States. Patient-level microsimulations showed consistent findings that aMRI was cost-effective in both countries. By probabilistic sensitivity analysis, aMRI was found to be more cost-effective than combined ultrasonography and AFP with a probability of 0.77 in Thailand and 0.98 in the United States. By sensitivity analyses, annual HCC incidence was revealed as the most influential factor affecting cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness of aMRI increased in settings with a higher HCC incidence. At a higher HCC incidence, aMRI would remain cost-effective at a higher aMRI-to-ultrasonography with AFP cost ratio.

Conclusions

Compared to ultrasonography with AFP, non-contrast aMRI is a cost-effective strategy for HCC surveillance and may be useful for such surveillance in cirrhotic patients, especially in those with high HCC risks.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prevention in the Era of Hepatitis C Elimination

The hepatitis C virus (HCV), a single-stranded RNA virus belonging to the Flaviviridae family, is a major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Tumors caused by HCC have an increased mortality rate globally, which is more accentuated in Western countries. The carcinogenic potential of this virus is mediated through a wide range of mechanisms, spanning from the induction of chronic inflammation to oxidative stress and deregulation of cellular pathways by viral proteins. As the number of new infections continues unabated, HCC-related mortality should be prioritized through early detection, continued prevention of HCV transmission, and treatment of HCV with safe and efficacious direct antiviral agents (DAAs). People who inject drugs (PWID) are a significant reservoir of new HCV infections globally, and in order to eliminate hepatitis C as a global health threat, as set out by the World Health Organization, an integrated approach based on the optimization of care delivery and increased access to harm reduction and treatment for PWID is needed. Thanks to the development of safe and effective antiviral agents, eradication of the infection is now possible in almost all treated patients, leading to a significant reduction but not the elimination of the risk for HCC in cured patients. This is particularly relevant among aged populations who have cofactors of morbidity known to accelerate HCC progression, such as diabetes, obesity, and excessive alcohol consumption. Given the restless accumulation of individuals with cured HCV infection, the implementation of risk-stratified surveillance programs becomes impellent from a cost-effectiveness perspective, whereas the availability of a performant biomarker to predict HCC in cured patients remains an unmet clinical need.

Effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs using multitarget blood test: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of ultrasound-based surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis is limited by suboptimal sensitivity for early tumor detection and poor adherence. Emerging blood-based biomarkers have been proposed as an alternative surveillance strategy. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of a multitarget HCC blood test (mt-HBT)-with and without improved adherence-against ultrasound-based HCC surveillance.

METHODS

We developed a Markov-based mathematical model that simulated a virtual trial in patients with compensated cirrhosis comparing potential surveillance strategies: biannual surveillance using ultrasound, ultrasound plus AFP, and mt-HBT with or without improved adherence (+10% increase). We used published data to inform underlying liver disease progression rates, HCC tumor growth patterns, performance characteristics of surveillance modalities, and efficacy of treatments. Primary outcomes of interest were the number of early-stage HCCs detected and life years gained.

RESULTS

Per 100,000 patients with cirrhosis, mt-HBT detected 1680 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound alone and 350 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 5720 and 1000 life years, respectively. mt-HBT with improved adherence detected 2200 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound and 880 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 8140 and 3420 life years, respectively. The number of screening tests needed to detect one HCC case was 139 with ultrasound, 122 with ultrasound + AFP, 119 with mt-HBT, and 124 with mt-HBT with improved adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

mt-HBT is a promising alternative to ultrasound-based HCC surveillance, particularly given anticipated improved adherence with blood-based biomarkers could increase HCC surveillance effectiveness.

Recall patterns and risk of primary liver cancer for subcentimeter ultrasound liver observations: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Patients with cirrhosis and subcentimeter lesions on liver ultrasound are recommended to undergo short-interval follow-up ultrasound because of the presumed low risk of primary liver cancer (PLC).

AIMS

The aim of this study is to characterize recall patterns and risk of PLC in patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study among patients with cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B infection who had subcentimeter ultrasound lesions between January 2017 and December 2019. We excluded patients with a history of PLC or concomitant lesions ≥1 cm in diameter. We used Kaplan Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses to characterize time-to-PLC and factors associated with PLC, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 746 eligible patients, most (66.0%) had a single observation, and the median diameter was 0.7 cm (interquartile range: 0.5-0.8 cm). Recall strategies varied, with only 27.8% of patients undergoing guideline-concordant ultrasound within 3-6 months. Over a median follow-up of 26 months, 42 patients developed PLC (39 HCC and 3 cholangiocarcinoma), yielding an incidence of 25.7 cases (95% CI, 6.2-47.0) per 1000 person-years, with 3.9% and 6.7% developing PLC at 2 and 3 years, respectively. Factors associated with time-to-PLC were baseline alpha-fetoprotein >10 ng/mL (HR: 4.01, 95% CI, 1.85-8.71), platelet count ≤150 (HR: 4.90, 95% CI, 1.95-12.28), and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis (vs. Child-Pugh A: HR: 2.54, 95% CI, 1.27-5.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Recall patterns for patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound varied widely. The low risk of PLC in these patients supports short-interval ultrasound in 3-6 months, although diagnostic CT/MRI may be warranted for high-risk subgroups such as those with elevated alpha-fetoprotein levels.