The Validation of a Beta-Binomial Model for Overdispersed Binomial Data

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from repeated pooled testing: application to Swiss routine data

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 through reported positive RT-PCR tests is biased due to non-random testing. Prevalence estimation in population-based samples corrects for this bias. Within this context, the pooled testing design offers many advantages, but several challenges remain with regards to the analysis of such data. We developed a Bayesian model aimed at estimating the prevalence of infection from repeated pooled testing data while (i) correcting for test sensitivity; (ii) propagating the uncertainty in test sensitivity; and (iii) including correlation over time and space. We validated the model in simulated scenarios, showing that the model is reliable when the sample size is at least 500, the pool size below 20, and the true prevalence below 5%. We applied the model to 1.49 million pooled tests collected in Switzerland in 2021-2022 in schools, care centres, and workplaces. We identified similar dynamics in all three settings, with prevalence peaking at 4-5% during winter 2022. We also identified differences across regions. Prevalence estimates in schools were correlated with reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths (coefficient 0.84 to 0.90). We conclude that in many practical situations, the pooled test design is a reliable and affordable alternative for the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Statistical Analysis of Multiplex Immunofluorescence Data

Simple Summary

Immune modulation is considered a hallmark of cancer initiation and progression, and has offered promising opportunities for therapeutic manipulation. Multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) technology has enabled the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) to be studied at an increased scale, in terms of both the number of markers and the number of samples. Another benefit of mIF technology is the ability to measure not only the abundance but also the spatial location of multiple cells types within a tissue sample simultaneously, allowing for assessment of the co-localization of different types of immune markers. Thus, the use of mIF technologies have enable researchers to characterize patient, clinical, and tumor characteristics in the hope of identifying patients whom might benefit from immunotherapy treatments. In this review we outline some of the challenges and opportunities in the statistical analyses of mIF data to study the TIME.

Abstract

Immune modulation is considered a hallmark of cancer initiation and progression. The recent development of immunotherapies has ushered in a new era of cancer treatment. These therapeutics have led to revolutionary breakthroughs; however, the efficacy of immunotherapy has been modest and is often restricted to a subset of patients. Hence, identification of which cancer patients will benefit from immunotherapy is essential. Multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) microscopy allows for the assessment and visualization of the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME). The data output following image and machine learning analyses for cell segmenting and phenotyping consists of the following information for each tumor sample: the number of positive cells for each marker and phenotype(s) of interest, number of total cells, percent of positive cells for each marker, and spatial locations for all measured cells. There are many challenges in the analysis of mIF data, including many tissue samples with zero positive cells or “zero-inflated” data, repeated measurements from multiple TMA cores or tissue slides per subject, and spatial analyses to determine the level of clustering and co-localization between the cell types in the TIME. In this review paper, we will discuss the challenges in the statistical analysis of mIF data and opportunities for further research.