Designing Long-Term Care Systems: Elements to Consider

The Economic Value of Caregiving in Chile

Population aging will increase the demand for long-term care services. Many countries, including Chile, have not implemented comprehensive responses to address these demands, relying on informal care. This article aims to estimate the economic value of caregiving in Chile, contributing to filling a gap in the literature and the policy debate. Economic value is estimated using replacement and opportunity cost approaches using two nationally representative databases: one survey on time use (to estimate hours of caregiving) and one on socioeconomic characterization (to identify caregivers and wages). Regressions for the determinants of caregiving effort and wages in the formal labor market are used to calculate the market value of caregiving time. Results show that the yearly value of caregiving ranges between US$266 million (when assuming a wage equal to the minimum wage for all caregivers) and US$4,946 million (when replacing all caregivers with nurses), i.e. between 0.11% and 1.95% of the country's gross domestic product. The analysis provides several estimations of the economic value of caregivers in Chile and, even considering these calculations can be underestimated, the results show the need to highlight and value the contribution of caregivers and implement policies to address the increase in long-term care needs in the country.

Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China

BACKGROUND

China has piloted Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) to address increasing care demand. However, many cities neglected adjusting LTCI premiums since the pilot, risking the long-term sustainability of LTCI. Therefore, using Zhejiang Province as a case, this study simulated mortality-adjusted long-term care demand and the balance of LTCI funds through dynamic financing mechanism under diverse life expectancy and disability scenarios.

METHODS

Three-parameter log-quadratic model was used to estimate the mortality from 1990 to 2020. Mortality with predicted interval from 2020 to 2080 was projected by Lee-Carter method extended with rotation. Cohort-component projection model was used to simulate the number of older population with different degrees of disability. Disability data of the older people is sourced from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2018. The balance of LTCI fund was simulated by dynamic financing actuarial model.

RESULTS

Life expectancy of Zhejiang for male (female) is from 80.46 (84.66) years in 2020 to 89.39 [86.61, 91.74] (91.24 [88.90, 93.25]) years in 2080. The number of long-term care demand with severe disability in Zhejiang demonstrates an increasing trend from 285 [276, 295] thousand in 2023 to 1027 [634, 1657] thousand in 2080 under predicted mean of life expectancy. LTCI fund in Zhejiang will become accumulated surplus from 2024 to 2080 when annual premium growth rate is 5.25% [4.20%, 6.25%] under various disability scenarios, which is much higher than the annual growth of unit cost of long-term care services (2.25%). The accumulated balance of LTCI fund is sensitive with life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic growth of LTCI premium is essential in dealing with current deficit around 2050 and realizing Zhejiang's LTCI sustainability in the long-run. The importance of dynamic monitoring disability and mortality information is emphasized to respond immediately to the increase of premiums. LTCI should strike a balance between expanding coverage and controlling financing scale. This study provides implications for developing countries to establish or pilot LTCI schemes.

Human Resources for Care in Latin America and the Caribbean: Current Needs and Future Demands

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the current gap and the necessary supply of human resources for care (HRC) for older people experiencing severe care dependence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).

DESIGN

Simulation study using previous estimations of severe care dependence for LAC countries.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Older people (aged 65+) experiencing severe care dependence in 26 countries of LAC.

METHODS

We calculated the current gap and the necessary supply of HRC in 2020, 2035, and 2050 assuming a mix of complementary human resources, in line with regional standards for long-term care (LTC) schemes, and differing levels of care coverage.

RESULTS

Considering 100% coverage of LTC services for the population aged 65+ experiencing severe care dependence, the region will need almost 5 million people working full-time in the sector. This figure is expected to increase to more than 14 million by 2050. Nurse assistants and nurses will be the professional profiles in highest demand. In addition, the region requires 2 million rehabilitation professionals in 2020, and this figure will increase to more than 6 million in 2050.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The rapid aging process in LAC will bring several challenges and opportunities to the region. Countries should start designing strategies to reduce the current gaps of HRC to meet older people's care needs in the coming years, in terms of both quantity and competencies, to help ensure that their human rights are met.

Long-term Care in the Agenda: The Case of Chile

The Chilean presidential elections of 2021 included an unprecedented topic in the country's political debate: long-term care (LTC). Although some public policies and programs have been in place for at least 20 years, during this 2021 presidential election LTC was mentioned for the first time in a political campaign. Five out of seven candidates highlighted the importance of LTC in their proposals and designed policies to address it. Why did this topic gain momentum as a campaign topic in 2021? What can explain the sudden inclusion of a new topic on the Chilean political agenda? Using Kingdon's multiple streams framework this article aims to understand the factors explaining the inclusion of LTC in the Chilean political agenda during the past presidential elections. A two-step qualitative research design was performed using a case study approach. As a first step, a documentary analysis of the campaign programs was conducted searching for references to LTC proposals. In a second step, semi-structured interviews were carried out with representatives from three of the seven campaign teams, including the teams that reached the ballotage. Data were analyzed using Kingdon's multiple streams framework. Results showed that the availability of national data on LTC needs helped highlight the problem and acted as a facilitator for advocacy; international organizations and other countries' experiences in implementing LTC systems served as policy entrepreneurs; and four events-the feminist movement, the social outbreak with the constitutional process, and the COVID-19 pandemic-pushed LTC forward on the political agenda. The case of Chile illustrates how Kingdon's framework can be used to identify facilitators for LTC inclusion on the political agenda, serving as an example for other countries facing similar issues and fostering the global debate around the increase in LTC needs.

Developing a Conceptual Framework for an Age-Friendly Health System: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Population aging is usually associated with increased health care needs. Developing an age-friendly health system with special features, structure, and functions to meet the special needs of older people and improving their health status and quality of life is essential. This study aimed to develop a conceptual framework for an age-friendly health system, which would offer a conceptual basis for providing the best possible care for older people in health system to let them experience a successful, healthy, and active aging.

METHODS

A scoping review was used to design the conceptual framework based on Arksey and O'Malley's model, including six stages, with the final stage of using expert's opinions to improve and validate the initial framework. The health system model of Van Olmen, was selected as the baseline model for this framework. Then, by reviewing the available evidence, the characteristics of an age-friendly health system were extracted and incorporated in the baseline mode.

RESULTS

Using the electronic searching, initially 12 316 documents were identified, of which 140 studies were selected and included in this review study. The relevant data were extracted from the 140 studies by two reviewers independently. Most studies were conducted in 2016-2020, and mostly were from United States (33.6%). To have an age-friendly health system, interventions and changes should be performed in functions, components and objectives of health systems. This system aims to provide evidence-based care through trained workforces and involves older people and their families in health policy-makings. Its consequences include better health acre for older people, with fewer healthcare-related harms, greater care satisfaction and increased use of cost-effective health services.

CONCLUSION

To meet the needs of older people, health systems should make interventions in their functions for better performance. In line with these changes, other parts of society should work in harmony and set the health of older people as a top priority to ensure they can have a successful aging.

Functional Dependency in Mexico: Measurement Issues and Policy Challenges

BACKGROUND

Different definitions have been used to measure functional dependency (FD) in Mexico. This study aims to explore if different definitions of FD lead to low consistency between the estimations of its prevalence. Accurate estimations of FD are useful to estimate the potential demand for long-term care (LTC) services in the country.

METHODS

A literature review including documents with estimations on the number or prevalence of dependents in Mexico with national representativeness between 2000 and 2019 was performed as well as estimations of different definitions of FD, using the National Study on Health and Aging in Mexico (ENASEM).

RESULTS

There is a lack of consensus on the definition of FD. Among the most frequently used terms to define FD are "disability" and "dependency." The heterogeneity of definitions results in a wide range of estimations of the demand for LTC. Methodological choices can lead to important differences in FD prevalence estimations. Results from ENASEM 2001 show that FD prevalence could range from 13% to 35% in people 60+; sex prevalences also vary when using different ways to measure FD.

CONCLUSION

Besides the highlighted issues in calculating FD in the population, Mexico should consider broadening the assessment of FD, including people with dementia and younger populations. Although the literature search is not systematic, it helps exemplifying the current issues when measuring FD in Mexico. A consensual definition of dependency is required to have a more accurate estimated demand for LTC. Having good data sources is not enough when dissimilar estimations of an indicator like dependency result from the same study. Wide heterogeneity in estimations of dependency could be an obstacle to inform public policies during the construction of a care system in Mexico.

Effects of Disability Severity on the Family Burden of Home-Dwelling Uygur and Kazakh Aged in Rural Western China: Family Function as a Mediator

INTRODUCTION

Caring for the disabled elderly puts heavy burdens on their families. This study aimed to explore family function (FF) as a mediator in the relationship between disability severity (DS) and family burden (FB) of the Uygur and Kazakh home-dwelling disabled elderly cared for by informal caregivers in China.

METHOD

A cross-sectional design with multistage sampling was used to recruit 431 families with Uygur and Kazakh disabled elderly in Bortala, Xinjiang, China. Data were collected using the Activities of Daily Living Scale, Family Burden Interview Schedule, and Family Adaptation, Partnership, Growth, Affection, and Resolve Index Scale and then analyzed using hierarchical regression.

RESULTS

FF had a partial mediating effect on the relationship between DS and FB (β = 0.131; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.074, 0.197]; p < .01); the effective rate was 41.46%.

DISCUSSION

Multidisciplinary care teams should implement targeted interventions to improve FF of the disabled elderly to alleviate FB.

Implementing long-term care systems in the Americas: a regional strategy

The Region of the Americas is facing accelerated demographic and epidemiological changes. As these trends will continue in future years, long-term care needs are expected to rise. How can countries respond to these challenges? We propose that countries in the Region should invest in the implementation of long-term care systems. Considering the heterogeneity in the Region, we propose a strategy based on three components: (i) understanding the problem; (ii) thinking about solutions; and (iii) building support and consensus. Depending on each country's needs and capacities, these three elements suggest short-term and long-term actions and goals, from generating better information on long-term care needs to the implementation of long-term care systems. Long-term care is a relevant issue for the Region today. The task is challenging, but countries need to embrace it and move forward before it is too late.

Components of Elderly Long-term Care System in Iran and Selected Countries: A Comparative Study

Context: With the increasing number of the elderly suffering from chronic diseases and disabilities, elderly long-term care (LTC) has been the subject of attention by health and welfare policymakers. This study aimed to compare the components of LTC for the elderly in Iran and selected countries. Methods: This comparative study was conducted in 2020. The search was conducted in three databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science), two search engines (Google Scholar and Google), and the websites of WHO and the Ministry of Health and Welfare of the selected countries from 2000 to 2020 to find relevant documents on the subject. The selection of countries was based on three criteria: the type of health system, having the highest percentage of the elderly population, and the development status. Finally, Germany, France, Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Thailand, and Iran were included in the study. The findings were organized using a common LTC framework. Results: In this study, the common framework of LTC systems, including beneficiaries, benefits packages, providers, and financing, was used. The study results showed that developed countries had formal LTC systems with specific mechanisms, but each country had differences in the implementation of different components of this system. On the other hand, in most developing countries, sporadic measures were taken in this field. Conclusions: In general, developed countries have adopted different LTC system approaches in the organization, financing, type of services, and generosity of benefits. In choosing the appropriate LTC model in developing countries, factors such as the health system, resource constraints, social, and cultural status should be considered.

Extending the analysis of functional ability trajectories to unexplored national contexts: The case of Chile

OBJECTIVES

Despite the enormous advances in the field, most evidence about functional ability trajectories in old age comes from studies conducted in developed and high-income countries. This research aims to build on these previous advances to examine functional ability trajectories in Chile.

METHODS

Drawing on a robust, publicly available 15-years panel dataset (2004-2018), and using sequence analysis, we examine functional ability trajectories types among four age groups (people aged 46-50, 51-55, 56-60, and 61-64 at baseline). Then, we analyze trajectories' dynamics looking at intra-individual health-declining and health-recovery transitions between functional ability statuses, within each trajectory type. Finally, we assess how multiple baseline individual characteristics predict the likelihood of following a functional ability trajectory type, using multinomial regression models.

RESULTS

Across all age groups, an important fraction (between 26%-50%) reports stable healthy trajectories, and between 10%-20% follow equivocal-declining trajectories (i.e., exhibiting both health-declining and health-recovery intra-individual transitions), suggesting that age might not be the main source of heterogeneity in functional ability trajectories. Overall, women, lower educated people, nonworking individuals, and people with a higher burden of chronic conditions at baseline, are more prevalent among health-declining trajectory types; however, these results are not constant across the age groups analyzed.

DISCUSSION

This nationally focused study reinforces the feasibility and usefulness of an in-depth analysis of functional ability trajectories in old age. The study findings can be crucial to define different prevention strategies according to the functional ability path that an individual might follow, especially in countries like Chile that currently navigates the challenges of population aging.