Serum human chorionic gonadotropin measured 7 days following day 3 embryo transfer might predict pregnancy outcome in IVF

Initial β-hCG levels and 2-day-later increase rates effectively predict pregnancy outcomes in single blastocyst transfer in frozen-thawed or fresh cycles: A retrospective cohort study

To investigate whether the initial beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) levels and their rate of increase differ after single fresh and frozen blastocyst transfers, and whether these values effectively predict pregnancy outcomes. This retrospective cohort study was conducted at the Sisli Memorial Hospital, assisted reproductive technology, and Reproductive Genetics Center in Istanbul, Turkey, between January 2016 and January 2022. Three thousand two hundred thirty-eight single blastocyst transfers with positive pregnancy test results were evaluated. Of these, 738 were fresh transfer cycles and 2500 were frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) cycles. β-hCG test results from 9 days after fresh and FET cycles were compared between the groups with biochemical pregnancy, early pregnancy loss, and live birth outcomes. The threshold values were determined for each pregnancy outcome. The rate of increase between the first and second β-hCG tests performed 2 days apart was determined for each pregnancy outcome. Finally, the listed values were compared between the FET and fresh cycle. Mean baseline β-hCG levels were significantly higher in FET cycles than in fresh cycles, regardless of pregnancy outcomes (P < .005). Baseline β-hCG levels were higher in fresh cycles with live births (171.76 ± 109.64 IU/L) compared to biochemical and clinical pregnancy losses (50.37 ± 24.31 and 114.86 ± 72.42, respectively) (P < .001). Live births in FET cycles resulted in higher baseline β-hCG levels (193.57 ± 100.38 IU/L) compared to biochemical and clinical pregnancy loss groups (68.41 ± 51.85 and 149.29 ± 96.99 IU/L, respectively) (P < .001). The β-hCG threshold for live birth for fresh cycles was 116.5 IU/L (sensitivity 80%, specificity 70%, positive predictive value 90%, negative predictive value 54%) and 131.5 IU/L for FET cycles (sensitivity 71%, specificity 68%, positive predictive value 87%, negative predictive value 50%). The percentage of the area under the curve for single fresh blastocyst transfers was 0.81 and 0.76 for frozen transfers. The rate of increase in β-hCG was similar in fresh and FET cycles. Initial β-hCG levels and 2-day increases are effective parameters for diagnosing pregnancy in fresh and FET cycles. The initial β-hCG level was significantly higher in the FET cycles than in the fresh cycles. Predicting outcomes earlier helps clinicians to manage and follow high-risk pregnancies.

Biological relevance of trophectoderm morphology: initial β-hCG measurements correlate with trophectoderm grading on euploid frozen embryo transfers

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the correlation between TE grading and initial β-hCG serum level after single euploid embryo transfer. Secondarily, to explore the association between TE grading with subsequent IVF outcomes.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort analysis.

SETTING

Single, academic, private infertility and assisted reproductive care institute.

PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS

Infertility patients who underwent a single euploid embryo transfer that resulted in a positive pregnancy test.

INTERVENTION(S)

β-hCG measurements.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Correlation between TE grade with first β-hCG measurement. Second outcome measurements included ongoing pregnancy, biochemical pregnancy loss, and clinical pregnancy loss rates.

RESULTS

2,798 cases were analyzed. A significant difference in initial β-hCG measurement among groups (TE A: median 143.4 mIU/mL IQR 79.2-211.2; TE B: 119 mIU/mL IQR 57.1-177.8; TE C: 82.4 mIU/mL IQR 36.3-136.4, p ≤ 0.0001) was observed. There was a significant correlation found between the TE grade and β-hCG measurements (p ≤ 0.0001, r2 = 0.10). TE grade was not associated with higher odds of biochemical pregnancy loss (TE A vs. TE B: aOR 1.01 CI95% 0.97-1.05; TE A vs. TE C: aOR 1.03 CI95% 0.98-1.08), or higher odds of clinical pregnancy loss (TE A vs. TE B: aOR 1.02 CI95% 0.98-1.05; TE A vs. TE C: aOR 1.03 CI95% 0.98-1.07).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with euploid embryos, TE grade correlates with the first pregnancy test measurement of β-hCG. We propose this finding helps to appoint a relevant link between morphology assessment and early embryo development in vivo.

Combined analysis of human chorionic gonadotrophin concentrations at different time points after frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer can improve our ability to predict the pregnancy outcomes of single gestations

In this study, we conducted a retrospective single-centre study of 1664 singleton pregnancies derived from frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer between January 2017 and December 2018. Analysis showed that there were 596 early pregnancy losses and 1068 ongoing pregnancies. We compared serum HCG (human chorionic gonadotophin) concentrations on days 12, 14, 19, and 21, between the pregnancy loss group and the ongoing pregnancy group. The cut-off level of HCG at each time point was calculated to predict pregnancy outcome. Joint analysis of two single HCG levels taken one week apart was carried out to improve predictive accuracy. The levels of HCG at four time points were significantly lower in the early pregnancy loss group than in the ongoing pregnancy group. According to the area under ROC (receiver operating characteristic curve) curves, all levels of HCG taken at four time points showed good ability to predict the outcome of pregnancy. The joint analysis of two single HCG levels taken one week apart further improved the accuracy of prediction.Impact statementWhat is already known on this subject? Multiple studies have shown that the maternal level of serum HCG is the best parameter for predicting the course of pregnancy.What do the results of this study add? The levels of HCG on days 12, 14, 19 and 21 were significantly lower in the early pregnancy loss group than in the group of ongoing pregnancies. According to the area under ROC curves, all levels of HCG taken at four time points showed a good ability to predict the outcome of pregnancy.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? The joint analysis of two single HCG levels, taken one week apart, further improved the accuracy of prediction.

Association between 7-day serum β-hCG levels after frozen-thawed embryo transfer and pregnancy outcomes: a single-centre retrospective study from China

OBJECTIVE

Early monitoring of plasma human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) level is vital in predicting pregnancy outcome. This study investigated the predictive value of serum β-hCG level on the seventh day after frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) for ongoing pregnancy (OP) and adverse pregnancy (AP).

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

The Reproductive and Genetic Center of the Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, China.

PARTICIPANTS

1061 pregnant women who underwent FET between January 2014 and January 2017.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Pregnancy outcome.

RESULTS

Serum β-hCG levels on the seventh day after FET were higher in the single OP group compared with the biochemical pregnancy group (p<0.001). Besides, the serum β-hCG cut-off level at 4.34 mIU/mL on the seventh day showed high predictive value (area under the curve (AUC)=0.852). Serum β-hCG levels on the seventh day after FET were higher in the twin OP group compared with the single OP group (p<0.001). Also, the serum β-hCG cut-off level at 17.95 mIU/mL on the seventh day showed high predictive value (AUC=0.903). Serum β-hCG levels on the seventh day after FET were lower in the ectopic pregnancy group compared with the single OP group (p<0.001) whereas, serum β-hCG cut-off level at 4.53 mIU/mL on the seventh day exhibited a high predictive value (AUC=0.860). Further, the serum β-hCG levels on the seventh day after FET were lower in the single early spontaneous abortion group compared with the single OP group (p<0.001) while the serum β-hCG cut-off level at 5.34 mIU/mL on the seventh day exhibited high predictive value (AUC=0.738).

CONCLUSION

Serum β-hCG on the seventh day after FET has good clinical significance for the prediction of OP and AP.

Establishment of predictive model for analyzing clinical pregnancy outcome based on IVF-ET and ICSI assisted reproductive technology

In order to explore the predictive model for analyzing clinical pregnancy outcomes based on IVF-ET (in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer) and ICSI (Intracytoplasmic sperm injection) assisted reproductive technology (ART). Methods: this study selected the embryo transfer (fresh) patients who received IVF-ET or ICSI treatment in the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University as the subjects. Moreover, the controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) and follow-up were conducted to collect relevant data for analysis, and finally a prediction model was established. Results: The results showed that the patients were divided into different ovarian response groups at first. The age, bFSH and bFSH/bLH were the highest in the poor ovarian response group (POR), followed by the normal ovarian response group (NOR) and the lowest in the high ovarian response group (HOR). The area under the ROC curve was 0.669 according to the predictive model of pregnancy-related factors. The confidence interval of 94% was 0.629–0.697, with statistical significance (P = 0.000, P < 0.01). Conclusion: it can be concluded that in clinical pregnancy, for many related factors, regression equation can be used to establish a prediction model to diagnose the success rate of pregnancy. In conclusion, a prediction model can be built based on the relevant experimental results, to provide experimental reference ideas for increasing the success rate of ART in late clinical pregnancy, which is of great research significance.

Trends in primeval β-hCG level increment after fresh and frozen-thawed IVF embryo transfer cycles

Mid-trimester beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (BHCG) levels are considerably higher in pregnancies resulting from frozen embryo transfer (FET) compared with fresh (FRET), leading to a higher false positive rate in aneuploidy screening tests. We aimed to investigate the dynamics of BHCG increment and its predictive value for cycle outcome. A retrospective analysis of FRET and FET cycles. BHCG values on days 14 and 16 post embryo transfer were compared and stratified according to the number of sacs demonstrated on US scan at six weeks gestation, and pregnancy outcome (biochemical pregnancy, ectopic pregnancy, spontaneous abortion, and a singleton or twin birth). A prediction model for live birth was built. A total of 430 treatment cycles were analyzed. The average BHCG levels were significantly higher in FET compared with FRET group in nonviable pregnancies on day 14, 450 vs. 183 IU/L, p < .05 and day 16, 348 vs. 735 IU/L, p < .05, respectively. The increment of BHCG was significantly steeper in the FET compared with FRET group in biochemical pregnancies (F = 6.485, p = .012*). Optimal cutoff level for live birth prediction in the FRET group was 211 IU/L (sensitivity 84%, specificity 76.2%) for day 14 and 440 IU/L (sensitivity 86.0% and specificity 72.5%) for day 16. The increment in BHCG differed significantly between the FRET and FET cycles in nonviable pregnancies. Nevertheless, the difference in BHCG levels observed in the second trimester in pregnancies conceived after FRET and FET cycle may begin as early as the fourth week of pregnancy.

Development of a novel nomogram for predicting ongoing pregnancy after in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer

Objective

This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts ongoing pregnancy after in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET) using patient age and serum hormonal markers.

Methods

A total of 284 IVF-ET cycles were retrospectively analyzed. At 14 days post-oocyte pick-up (OPU), the serum human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) and progesterone levels were measured. The main predicted outcome was ongoing pregnancy.

Results

Patient age and serum of HCG and progesterone levels at 14 days post-OPU were good predictors of ongoing pregnancy. The cut-off value and area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval) were 36.5 years and 0.666 (0.599–0.733), respectively, for patient age; 67.8 mIU/mL and 0.969 (0.951–0.987), respectively, for serum HCG level; and 29.8 ng/mL and 0.883 (0.840–0.925), respectively, for serum progesterone level. When the prediction model was constructed using these three parameters, the addition of serum progesterone level to the prediction model did not increase its overall predictability. Furthermore, a high linear co-relationship was found between serum HCG and progesterone levels. Therefore, we developed a new nomogram using patient age and HCG serum level only. The AUC of the newly developed nomogram for predicting ongoing pregnancy after IVF-ET cycles using patient age and serum HCG level was as high as 0.975.

Conclusion

We showed that ongoing pregnancy may be predicted using only patient age and HCG serum level. Our nomogram could help clinicians and patients predict ongoing pregnancy after IVF-ET if the serum JCG level was ≥5 IU/L at 14 days post-OPU.

Predictive value of serum progesterone level on β-hCG check day in women with previous repeated miscarriages after in vitro fertilization

Objective

To evaluate the predictive value of the progesterone level at the beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) check day for ongoing pregnancy maintenance in in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles in women with previous unexplained repeated miscarriages.

Materials and methods

One hundred and forty-eight women, with visible gestational sac after IVF, were recruited in this observational study. All subjects had unexplained recurrent miscarriages in more than two previous IVF cycles. The progesterone level at the β-hCG check day (i.e. 14 days after oocyte retrieval) was assessed. The area under the curve (AUC) of the progesterone level was evaluated to predict the ongoing pregnancy or miscarriage outcomes.

Results

The overall ongoing pregnancy rate was 60.8% (90/148). The cut-off value with β-hCG levels higher than 126.5 mIU/mL and with progesterone levels higher than 25.2 ng/mL could be the predictive factors for ongoing pregnancy maintenance (AUC = 0.788 and 0.826; sensitivity = 0.788 and 0.723; specificity = 0.689 and 0.833; P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). The miscarriage rates were 19.5% (15/77) in the women with β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL and 13.0% (10/77) in those with > 25.2 ng/mL. In the comparison of the ROC curves between both values, a similar significance was found. The subjects with β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL and progesterone > 25.2 ng/mL showed higher ongoing pregnancy rates [98.0% (49/50) vs. 41.8% (41/98)] than those with β-hCG ≤ 126.5 mIU/mL or progesterone ≤ 25.2 ng/mL.

Conclusions

The progesterone level at 14 days after oocyte retrieval can be a good predictive marker for ongoing pregnancy maintenance in women with repeated IVF failure with miscarriage, together with the β-hCG level. The combined cut-off value of progesterone > 25.2 ng/mL and β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL may suggest a good prognosis.