General and specified vulnerability to extreme temperatures among older adults

A Systematic Review of the Development and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index: Major Factors, Methods, and Spatial Units

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review aims to identify the key factors, methods, and spatial units used in the development and validation of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and discuss the underlying limitations of the data and methods by evaluating the performance of the HVI.

RECENT FINDINGS

Thirteen studies characterizing the factors of the HVI development and relating the index with validation data were identified. Five types of factors (i.e., hazard exposure, demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, built environment, and underlying health) of the HVI development were identified, and the top five were social cohesion, race, and/or ethnicity, landscape, age, and economic status. The principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA) was often used in index development, and four types of spatial units (i.e., census tracts, administrative area, postal code, grid) were used for establishing the relationship between factors and the HVI. Moreover, although most studies showed that a higher HVI was often associated with the increase in health risk, the strength of the relationship was weak.

SUMMARY

This review provides a retrospect of the major factors, methods, and spatial units used in development and validation of the HVI and helps to define the framework for future studies. In the future, more information on the hazard exposure, underlying health, governance, and protection awareness should be considered in the HVI development, and the duration and location of validation data should be strengthened to verify the reliability of HVI.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40641-021-00173-3.

Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?

Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have differential effects on different subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085–2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051–2065 to 1.37% for 2085–2099, compared to the historical period.