Is bone marrow examination always necessary to establish the diagnosis of myelodysplastic syndromes? A proposed non-invasive diagnostic model

Flow cytometric analysis of peripheral blood neutrophil myeloperoxidase expression in myelodysplastic neoplasms (MPO-MDS-Valid): protocol for a multicentre diagnostic accuracy study

INTRODUCTION

Many patients referred for suspicion of myelodysplastic neoplasm (MDS) are subjected to unnecessary discomfort from bone marrow aspiration, due to the low disease prevalence in this population. Flow cytometric analysis of peripheral blood neutrophil myeloperoxidase expression could rule out MDS with sensitivity and negative predictive value estimates close to 100%, ultimately obviating the need for bone marrow aspiration in up to 35% of patients. However, the generalisability of these findings is uncertain due to the limited sample size, the enrolment of patients at a single study site, and the reliability issues associated with laboratory-developed tests and varying levels of operator experience. This study aims to validate the accuracy attributes of peripheral blood neutrophil myeloperoxidase expression quantified by flow cytometric analysis in an independent multicentre sample.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The MPO-MDS-Valid project is a cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy study comparing an index test to a reference standard. Consecutive adult patients referred for suspicion of MDS are being recruited at seven university hospitals and one cancer centre in France. At each site, flow cytometric analysis of peripheral blood samples is performed by operators who are blinded to the reference diagnosis. A central adjudication committee whose members are unaware of the index test results will determine the reference diagnosis of MDS, based on cytomorphological evaluation of bone marrow performed in duplicate by experienced hematopathologists. The target sample size is 400 patients and the anticipated study recruitment completion date is 31 December 2025.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

An institutional review board (Comité de Protection des Personnes Nord-Ouest III, Caen, France) approved the protocol, prior to the start of the study. Participants are recruited using an opt-out approach. Efforts will be made to publish the primary results within 6 months after study completion.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05175469.

A predictive algorithm using clinical and laboratory parameters may assist in ruling out and in diagnosing MDS

We present a noninvasive Web-based app to help exclude or diagnose myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), a bone marrow (BM) disorder with cytopenias and leukemic risk, diagnosed by BM examination. A sample of 502 MDS patients from the European MDS (EUMDS) registry (n > 2600) was combined with 502 controls (all BM proven). Gradient-boosted models (GBMs) were used to predict/exclude MDS using demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the models, and performance was validated using 100 times fivefold cross-validation. Model stability was assessed by repeating its fit using different randomly chosen groups of 502 EUMDS cases. AUC was 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.95-0.97). MDS is predicted/excluded accurately in 86% of patients with unexplained anemia. A GBM score (range, 0-1) of less than 0.68 (GBM < 0.68) resulted in a negative predictive value of 0.94, that is, MDS was excluded. GBM ≥ 0.82 provided a positive predictive value of 0.88, that is, MDS. The diagnosis of the remaining patients (0.68 ≤ GBM < 0.82) is indeterminate. The discriminating variables: age, sex, hemoglobin, white blood cells, platelets, mean corpuscular volume, neutrophils, monocytes, glucose, and creatinine. A Web-based app was developed; physicians could use it to exclude or predict MDS noninvasively in most patients without a BM examination. Future work will add peripheral blood cytogenetics/genetics, EUMDS-based prospective validation, and prognostication.