Use of probabilistic methods to understand the conservatism in California's approach to assessing health risks posed by air contaminants

The role of exposure reconstruction in occupational human health risk assessment: current methods and a recommended framework

Exposure reconstruction for substances of interest to human health is a process that has been used, with various levels of sophistication, as far back as the 1930s. The importance of robust and high-quality exposure reconstruction has been recognized by many researchers. It has been noted that misclassification of reconstructed exposures is relatively common and can result in potentially significant effects on the conclusions of a human health risk assessment or epidemiology study. In this analysis, a review of the key exposure reconstruction approaches described in over 400 papers in the peer-reviewed literature is presented. These approaches have been critically evaluated and classified according to quantitative, semiquantitative, and qualitative approaches. Our analysis indicates that much can still be done to improve the overall quality and consistency of exposure reconstructions and that a systematic framework would help to standardize the exposure reconstruction process in the future. The seven recommended steps in the exposure reconstruction process include identifying the goals of the reconstruction, organizing and ranking the available data, identifying key data gaps, selecting the best information sources and methodology for the reconstruction, incorporating probabilistic methods into the reconstruction, conducting an uncertainty analysis, and validating the results of the reconstruction. Influential emerging techniques, such as Bayesian data analysis, are highlighted. Important issues that will likely influence the conduct of exposure reconstruction into the future include improving statistical analysis methods, addressing the issue of chemical mixtures, evaluating aggregate exposures, and ensuring transparency with respect to variability and uncertainty in the reconstruction effort.

New developments in exposure assessment: the impact on the practice of health risk assessment and epidemiological studies

The field of exposure assessment has matured significantly over the past 10-15 years. Dozens of studies have measured the concentrations of numerous chemicals in many media to which humans are exposed. Others have catalogued the various exposure pathways and identified typical values which can be used in the exposure calculations for the general population such as amount of water or soil ingested per day or the percent of a chemical than can pass through the skin. In addition, studies of the duration of exposure for many tasks (e.g. showering, jogging, working in the office) have been conducted which allow for more general descriptions of the likely range of exposures. All of this information, as well as the development of new and better models (e.g. air dispersion or groundwater models), allow for better estimates of exposure. In addition to identifying better exposure factors, and better mathematical models for predicting the aerial distribution of chemicals, the conduct of simulation studies and dose-reconstruction studies can offer extraordinary opportunities for filling in data gaps regarding historical exposures which are critical to improving the power of epidemiology studies. The use of probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo analysis and Bayesian statistics have revolutionized the practice of exposure assessment and has greatly enhanced the quality of the risk characterization. Lastly, the field of epidemiology is about to undergo a sea change with respect to the exposure component because each year better environmental and exposure models, statistical techniques and new biological monitoring techniques are being introduced. This paper reviews these techniques and discusses where additional research is likely to pay a significant dividend. Exposure assessment techniques are now available which can significantly improve the quality of epidemiology and health risk assessment studies and vastly improve their usefulness. As more quantitative exposure components can now be incorporated into these studies, they can be better used to identify safe levels of exposure using customary risk assessment methodologies. Examples are drawn from both environmental and occupational studies illustrating how these techniques have been used to better understand exposure to specific chemicals. Some thoughts are also presented on what lessons have been learned about conducting exposure assessment for health risk assessments and epidemiological studies.

Identifying soil cleanup criteria for dioxins in urban residential soils: how have 20 years of research and risk assessment experience affected the analysis?

This article reviews the scientific evidence and methodologies that have been used to assess the risks posed by 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and presents a probabilistic analysis for identifying virtually safe concentrations of TCDD toxicity equivalents (TEQ) in residential soils. Updated data distributions that consider state-of-the-science cancer and noncancer toxicity criteria, child soil ingestion and dermal uptake, bioavailability in soil, and residential exposure duration are incorporated. The probabilistic analysis shows that the most sensitive determinants of dose and risk are childhood soil ingestion, exposure duration, and the selected TCDD cancer potency factor. It also shows that the cancer risk at 1 per 100,000 predicted more conservative (lower) soil criteria values than did the noncancer hazard (e.g., developmental and reproductive effects). In this analysis, acceptable or tolerable soil dioxin concentrations (TCDD TEQ) ranged from 0.4 to 5.5 ppb at the 95th percentile for cancer potency factors from 9600 to 156,000 (mg/kg/d)(-1) with site-specific adjustments not included. Various possible soil guidelines based on cancer and noncancer risks are presented and discussed. In the main, the current toxicology, epidemiology, and exposure assessment data indicate that the historical 1 ppb TEQ soil guidance value remains a reasonable screening value for most residential sites. This analysis provides risk managers with a thorough and transparent methodology, as well as a comprehensive information base, for making informed decisions about selecting soil cleanup values for PCDD/Fs in urban residential settings.

Assessment of intake from the diet

Exposure assessment is one of the key parts of the risk assessment process. Only intake of toxicologically significant amounts can lead to adverse health effects even for a relatively toxic substance. In the case of chemicals in foods this is based on three major aspects: (i) how to determine quantitatively the presence of a chemical in individual foods and diets, including its fate during the processes within the food production chain; (ii) how to determine the consumption patterns of the individual foods containing the relevant chemicals; (iii) how to integrate both the likelihood of consumers eating large amounts of the given foods and of the relevant chemical being present in these foods at high levels. The techniques used for the evaluation of these three aspects have been critically reviewed in this paper to determine those areas where the current approaches provide a solid basis for assessments and those areas where improvements are needed or desirable. For those latter areas, options for improvements are being suggested, including, for example, the development of a pan-European food composition database, activities to understand better effects of processing on individual food chemicals, harmonisation of food consumption survey methods with the option of a regular pan-European survey, evaluation of probabilistic models and the development of models to assess exposure to food allergens. In all three areas, the limitations of the approaches currently used lead to uncertainties which can either cause an over- or underestimation of real intakes and thus risks. Given these imprecisions, risk assessors tend to build in additional uncertainty factors to avoid health-relevant underestimates. This is partly done by using screening methods designed to look for "worst case" situations. Such worse case assumptions lead to intake estimates that are higher than reality. These screening methods are used to screen all those chemicals with a safe intake distribution. For chemicals with a potential risk, more information is needed to allow more refined screening or even the most accurate estimation. More information and more refined methods however, require more resources. The ultimate aims are: (1) to obtain appropriate estimations for the presence and quantity of a given chemical in a food and in the diet in general; (2) to assess the consumption patterns for the foods containing these substances, including especially those parts of the population with high consumption and thus potentially high intakes; and (3) to develop and apply tools to predict reliably the likelihood of high end consumption with the presence of high levels of the relevant substances. It has thus been demonstrated that a tiered approach at all three steps can be helpful to optimise the use of the available resources: if relatively crude tools - designed to provide a "worst case" estimate - do not suggest a toxicologically significant exposure (or a relevant deficit of a particular nutrient) it may not be necessary to use more sophisticated tools. These will be needed if initially high intakes are indicated for at least parts of the population. Existing pragmatic approaches are a first crude step to model food chemical intake. It is recommended to extend, refine and validate this approach in the near future. This has to result in a cost-effective exposure assessment system to be used for existing and potential categories of chemicals. This system of knowledge (with information on sensitivities, accuracy, etc.) will guide future data collection.

Aggregate exposures under the Food Quality Protection Act: An approach using chlorpyrifos

The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-170, August 3, 1996), which amended the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FFDCA), requires that the EPA evaluate pesticide safety in light of potential aggregate exposures from both nondietary and dietary routes. As with any new legislation, there has been considerable discussion and challenges presented within the regulatory and scientific communities regarding the effective implementation of this act as it relates to the determination of aggregate exposures. This paper describes a novel methodology incorporating personal exposure factors, route-specific exposure measurements, and usage information to characterize potential aggregate exposures to a widely used pesticide, chlorpyrifos. A calendar model framework has been developed to describe potential multipathway exposures to individuals. The model assimilates information regarding the typical use patterns of chlorpyrifos-containing pesticides in concert with quantitative exposure and dose measurements to estimate the probability and magnitude of exposures to members of the U.S. population. Studies measuring 3,5,6-trichloropyridinol, the primary metabolite of chlorpyrifos, in the urine of individuals within the United States show that aggregate exposures derived from this approach are consistent with actual population-based exposures to chlorpyrifos. According to this assessment, potential health risks attributed to exposure to chlorpyrifos are low when compared to relevant toxicological end points.

Health risk assessment for toxic emissions from a manufacturing facility

This paper presents the risk associated with the release of toxic chemicals from a manufacturing facility, following the State of California's approach to risk assessment. The facility emits five toxic substances from eight stacks. The building downwash is considered during dispersion calculations. The zone of impact, identified using a risk criteria (i.e. excess cancer risk of 10 in a million), is located in the southeast quandrant from the plant. The size of the impact area is 3.3 km(2). The cancer and non-cancer effects are considered for chromium (VI), benzene, formaldehyde, gasoline vapors, methylene chloride, and selenium using the California Air Pollution Control Officers Association Guidelines. No significant non-cancer effects are found due to the emissions. The maximum calculated risk is 1.197×10(-5) and is an extremely conservative value. Analysis shows that the use of realistic assumptions for exposure duration and unit risk factors during the risk calculations could reduce the zone of impact to 0 km(2).

Recommended distributions for exposure factors frequently used in health risk assessment

Although there has been nearly complete agreement in the scientific community that Monte Carlo techniques represent a significant improvement in the exposure assessment process, virtually all state and federal risk assessments still rely on the traditional point estimate approach. One of the rate-determining steps to a timely implementation of Monte Carlo techniques to regulatory decision making is the development of "standard" data distributions that are considered applicable to any setting. For many exposure variables, there is no need to wait any longer to adopt Monte Carlo techniques into regulatory policy since there is a wealth of data from which a robust distribution can be developed and ample evidence to indicate that the variable is not significantly influenced by site-specific conditions. In this paper, we propose several distributions that can be considered standard and customary for most settings. Age-specific distributions for soil ingestion rates, inhalation rates, body weights, skin surface area, tapwater and fish consumption, residential occupancy and occupational tenure, and soil-on-skin adherence were developed. For each distribution offered in this paper, we discuss the adequacy of the database, derivation of the distribution, and applicability of the distribution to various settings and conditions.