Development of outcome-based, multipollutant mobile source indicators

High-spatiotemporal-resolution mapping of PM2.5 traffic source impacts integrating machine learning and source-specific multipollutant indicator

Traffic sources are a major contributor to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, with their emissions and diffusion exhibiting complex spatiotemporal patterns. Receptor models have limitations in estimating high-resolution source contributions due to insufficient observation networks of PM2.5 compositions. This study developed a source apportionment method that integrates machine learning and emission-based integrated mobile source indicator (IMSI) to rapidly and accurately estimate PM2.5 traffic source impacts with high spatiotemporal resolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Firstly, we utilized multisource data and developed various machine learning models to optimize the traffic-related pollutant concentration fields simulated by a chemical transport model. Results demonstrated that the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model exhibited excellent prediction accuracy of nitrogen oxide (NO2), carbon oxide (CO), and elemental carbon (EC), with the cross-validated R values increasing to 0.87-0.92 and error indices decreasing by 50-67%. Furthermore, we estimated and predicted daily mappings of PM2.5 traffic source impacts using the IMSI method based on optimized concentration fields, which improved spatially resolved source contributions to PM2.5. Our findings reveal that PM2.5 traffic source impacts display significant spatial heterogeneity, and these hotspots can be precisely identified during the pollution processes with sharp changes. The evaluation results indicated that there is a good correlation (R of 0.79) between PM2.5 traffic source impacts by IMSI method and traffic source contributions apportioned by a receptor model at Beijing site. Our study provides deeper insights of estimating the spatiotemporal distribution of PM2.5 source-specific impacts especially in regions without PM2.5 compositions, which can provide more complete and timely guidance to implement precise air pollution management strategies.

Investigating the Sources of Urban Air Pollution Using Low-Cost Air Quality Sensors at an Urban Atlanta Site

Advances in low-cost sensors (LCS) for monitoring air quality have opened new opportunities to characterize air quality in finer spatial and temporal resolutions. In this study, we deployed LCS that measure both gas (CO, NO, NO₂, and O₃) and particle concentrations and co-located research-grade instruments in Atlanta, GA, to investigate the capability of LCS in resolving air pollutant sources using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) in a moderately polluted urban area. We provide a comparison of applying the NMF technique to both normalized and non-normalized data sets. We identify four factors with different temporal trends and properties for both normalized and non-normalized data sets. Both normalized and non-normalized LCS data sets can resolve primary organic aerosol (POA) factors identified from research-grade instruments. However, applying normalization provides factors with more diverse compositions and can resolve secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Results from this study demonstrate that LCS not only can be used to provide basic mass concentration information but also can be used for in-depth source apportionment studies even in an urban setting with complex pollution mixtures and relatively low aerosol loadings.

Commuter types identified using clustering and their associations with source-specific PM2.5

Traffic-related fine particulate matter air pollution (tr-PM_2.5) has been associated with adverse health outcomes such as cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality, with in-vehicle tr-PM_2.5 exposure contributing to total personal pollution exposure. Trip characteristics, including time of day, day of the week, and traffic congestion, are associated with in-vehicle PM_2.5 exposures. We hypothesized that some commuter characteristics, such as whether commuters travel primarily during rush hour, would also be associated with increased tr-PM_2.5 exposures. The commute data consisted of unscripted personal vehicle trips of 46 commuters in the Washington, D.C. metro area over 48-h, with a total of 320 trips. We identified commuter types using sparse K-means clustering, which identifies the hours throughout the day important for clustering commuters. Source-specific PM_2.5 over 48 h was estimated using Positive Matrix Factorization. Linear regression was used to estimate differences in source-specific PM_2.5 by commuter cluster. Two commuter clusters were identified using the clustering approach: rush hour commuters, who primarily travelled during rush hour, and sporadic commuters, who travelled throughout the day. The hours given the largest weights by sparse K-means were 7-8 a.m. and 6-7 p.m., corresponding to peak travel times. Integrated black carbon (BC) was higher for rush hour commuters (median = 3.1 μg/m³ (IQR = 1.5)) compared to sporadic commuters (2.0 μg/m³ (IQR = 1.9)). Mobile PM_2.5, consisting primarily of tailpipe emissions and brake/tire wear, was also higher for rush hour commuters (2.9 μg/m³ (IQR = 1.6)) compared to sporadic commuters (2.1 μg/m³ (IQR = 2.4)), though this difference was not statistically significant in regression models. Estimated differences between commuter types for secondary/mixed PM_2.5 and road salt PM_2.5 were smaller. Further research may elucidate whether commuter characteristics are an efficient way to identify individuals with highest tr-PM_2.5 exposures associated with commuting and to develop effective mitigation strategies.

Model choice for estimating the association between exposure to chemical mixtures and health outcomes: A simulation study

Challenges arise in researching health effects associated with chemical mixtures. Several methods have recently been proposed for estimating the association between health outcomes and exposure to chemical mixtures, but a formal simulation study comparing broad-ranging methods is lacking. We select five recently developed methods and evaluate their performance in estimating the exposure-response function, identifying active mixture components, and identifying interactions in a simulation study. Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and nonparametric Bayes shrinkage (NPB) were top-performing methods in our simulation study. BKMR and NPB outperformed other contemporary methods and traditional linear models in estimating the exposure-response function and identifying active mixture components. BKMR and NPB produced similar results in a data analysis of the effects of multipollutant exposure on lung function in children with asthma.

Four Decades of United States Mobile Source Pollutants: Spatial-Temporal Trends Assessed by Ground-Based Monitors, Air Quality Models, and Satellites

On-road emissions sources degrade air quality, and these sources have been highly regulated. Epidemiological and environmental justice studies often use road proximity as a proxy for traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) exposure, and other studies employ air quality models or satellite observations. To assess these metrics' abilities to reproduce observed near-road concentration gradients and changes over time, we apply a hierarchical linear regression to ground-based observations, long-term air quality model simulations using Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), and satellite products. Across 1980-2019, observed TRAP concentrations decreased, and road proximity was positively correlated with TRAP. For all pollutants, concentrations decreased fastest at locations with higher road proximity, resulting in "flatter" concentration fields in recent years. This flattening unfolded at a relatively constant rate for NOx, whereas the flattening of CO concentration fields has slowed. CMAQ largely captures observed spatial-temporal NO2 trends across 2002-2010 but overstates the relationships between CO and elemental carbon fine particulate matter (EC) road proximity. Satellite NOx measures overstate concentration reductions near roads. We show how this perspective provides evidence that California's on-road vehicle regulations led to substantial decreases in NO2, NOx, and EC in California, with other states that adopted California's light-duty automobile standards showing mixed benefits over states that did not adopt these standards.

Evaluating a multipollutant metric for use in characterizing traffic-related air pollution exposures within near-road environments

Accurately characterizing human exposures to traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) is critical to public health protection. However, quantifying exposure to this single source is challenging, given its extremely heterogeneous chemical composition. Efforts using single-species tracers of TRAP are, thus, lacking in their ability to accurately reflect exposures to this complex mixture. There have been recent discussions centered on adopting a multipollutant perspective for sources with many emitted pollutants to maximize the benefits of control expenditures as well as to minimize population and ecosystem exposure. As part of a larger study aimed to assess a complete emission-to-exposure pathway of primary traffic pollution and understand exposure of individuals in the near-road environment, an intensive field campaign measured TRAPs and related data (e.g., meteorology, traffic counts, and regional air pollutant levels) in Atlanta along one of the busiest highway corridors in the US. Given the dynamic nature of the near-road environment, a multipollutant exposure metric, the Integrated Mobile Source Indicator (IMSI), which was generated based on emissions-based ratios, was calculated and compared to traditional single-species methods for assessing exposure to mobile source emissions. The current analysis examined how both traditional and non-traditional metrics vary spatially and temporally in the near-road environment, how they compare with each other, and whether they have the potential to offer more accurate means of assigning exposures to primary traffic emissions. The results indicate that compared to the traditional single pollutant specie, the multipollutant IMSI metric provided a more spatially stable method for assessing exposure, though variations occurred based on location with varying results among the six sites within a kilometer of the highway.

Spatial PM2.5 mobile source impacts using a calibrated indicator method

Motor vehicles are major sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and the PM_2.5 from mobile vehicles is associated with adverse health effects. Traditional methods for estimating source impacts that employ receptor models are limited by the availability of observational data. To better estimate temporally and spatially resolved mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, we developed an approach based on a method that uses elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) measurements as an indicator of mobile source impacts. We extended the original integrated mobile source indicator (IMSI) method in three aspects. First, we generated spatially resolved indicators using 24-hr average concentrations of EC, CO, and NO_x estimated at 4 km resolution by applying a method developed to fuse chemical transport model (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model [CMAQ]) simulations and observations. Second, we used spatially resolved emissions instead of county-level emissions in the IMSI formulation. Third, we spatially calibrated the unitless indicators to annually-averaged mobile source impacts estimated by the receptor model Chemical Mass Balance (CMB). Daily total mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, as well as separate gasoline and diesel vehicle impacts, were estimated at 12 km resolution from 2002 to 2008 and 4 km resolution from 2008 to 2010 for Georgia. The total mobile and separate vehicle source impacts compared well with daily CMB results, with high temporal correlation (e.g., R ranges from 0.59 to 0.88 for total mobile sources with 4 km resolution at nine locations). The total mobile source impacts had higher correlation and lower error than the separate gasoline and diesel sources when compared with observation-based CMB estimates. Overall, the enhanced approach provides spatially resolved mobile source impacts that are similar to observation-based estimates and can be used to improve assessment of health effects. Implications: An approach is developed based on an integrated mobile source indicator method to estimate spatiotemporal PM_2.5 mobile source impacts. The approach employs three air pollutant concentration fields that are readily simulated at 4 and 12 km resolutions, and is calibrated using PM_2.5 source apportionment modeling results to generate daily mobile source impacts in the state of Georgia. The estimated source impacts can be used in investigations of traffic pollution and health.

Air quality accountability: Developing long-term daily time series of pollutant changes and uncertainties in Atlanta, Georgia resulting from the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments codified major institutional changes relating to the management of air pollutants in the United States. Recent research years has attributed reduced emissions over the past two decades to regulations enacted under these Amendments, but none have separated long-term daily impacts of individual regulatory programs on multiple source categories under a consistent framework. Using daily emissions and air quality measurements along with a detailed review of national and local regulations promulgated after the Amendments, we quantify daily changes in emissions and air quality attributable to regulations on electricity generating units and on-road mobile sources. To quantify daily changes, we develop nine sets of counterfactual emissions and ambient air pollution concentration time series for 10 pollutants that assume individual regulatory programs and combinations thereof were not implemented. In addition to daily impacts, we estimate uncertainties in these results. These counterfactual daily ambient concentrations reveal high seasonality and increasing effectiveness of most regulations between 1999 and 2013. Monthly average counterfactual concentrations in scenarios that assume no new regulations on electricity generating units and mobile sources are greater than observed concentrations for all pollutants except ozone, which has seen increased wintertime concentrations accompany summertime decreases. By the end of the period, electricity generating unit emissions reductions under the Acid Rain Program and Clean Air Interstate Rule and their respective related local programs led to similar PM_2.5 concentration decreases. Of the mobile source regulations, rules on gasoline and diesel vehicles led to similar reductions in annual PM_2.5, and gasoline programs led to double the summertime ozone reductions as diesel programs. The nine sets of daily time series and their uncertainties were designed for use in air pollution accountability health studies.

Developing Multipollutant Exposure Indicators of Traffic Pollution: The Dorm Room Inhalation to Vehicle Emissions (DRIVE) Study

Introduction

The Dorm Room Inhalation to Vehicle Emissions (DRIVE2) study was conducted to measure traditional single-pollutant and novel multipollutant traffic indicators along a complete emission-to-exposure pathway. The overarching goal of the study was to evaluate the suitability of these indicators for use as primary traffic exposure metrics in panel-based and small-cohort epidemiological studies.

Methods

Intensive field sampling was conducted on the campus of the Georgia Institute of Technology (GIT) between September 2014 and January 2015 at 8 monitoring sites (2 indoors and 6 outdoors) ranging from 5 m to 2.3 km from the busiest and most congested highway artery in Atlanta. In addition, 54 GIT students living in one of two dormitories either near (20 m) or far (1.4 km) from the highway were recruited to conduct personal exposure sampling and weekly biomonitoring. The pollutants measured were selected to provide information about the heterogeneous particulate and gaseous composition of primary traffic emissions, including the traditional traffic-related species (e.g., carbon monoxide [CO], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], nitric oxide [NO], fine particulate matter [PM2.5], and black carbon [BC]), and of secondary species (e.g., ozone [O3] and sulfate as well as organic carbon [OC], which is both primary and secondary) from traffic and other sources. Along with these pollutants, we also measured two multipollutant traffic indicators: integrated mobile source indicators (IMSIs) and fine particulate matter oxidative potential (FPMOP). IMSIs are derived from elemental carbon (EC), CO, and nitrogen oxide (NOx) concentrations, along with the fractions of these species emitted by gasoline and diesel vehicles, to construct integrated estimates of gasoline and diesel vehicle impacts. Our FPMOP indicator was based on an acellular assay involving the depletion of dithiothreitol (DTT), considering both water-soluble and insoluble components (referred to as FPMOPtotal-DTT). In addition, a limited assessment of 18 low-cost sensors was added to the study to supplement the four original aims.

Results

Pollutant levels measured during the study showed a low impact by this highway hotspot source on its surrounding vicinity. These findings are broadly consistent with results from other studies throughout North America showing decreased relative contributions to urban air pollution from primary traffic emissions. We view these reductions as an indication of a changing near-road environment, facilitated by the effectiveness of mobile source emission controls. Many of the primary pollutant species, including NO, CO, and BC, decreased to near background levels by 20 to 30 m from the highway source. Patterns of correlation among the sites also varied by pollutant and time of day. NO2 exhibited spatial trends that differed from those of the other single-pollutant primary traffic indicators. We believe this was caused by kinetic limitations in the photochemical chemistry, associated with primary emission reductions, required to convert the NO-dominant primary NOx, emitted from automobiles, to NO2. This finding provides some indication of limitations in the use of NO2 as a primary traffic exposure indicator in panel-based health effect studies. Roadside monitoring of NO, CO, and BC tended to be more strongly correlated with sites, both near and far from the road, during morning rush hour periods and often weakly to moderately correlated during other time periods of the day. This pattern was likely associated with diurnal changes in mixing and chemistry and their impact on spatial heterogeneity across the campus. Among our candidate multipollutant primary traffic indicators, we report several key findings related to the use of oxidative potential (OP)-based indicators. Although earlier studies have reported elevated levels of FPMOP in direct exhaust emissions, we found that atmospheric processing further enhanced FPMOPtotal-DTT, likely associated with the oxidation of primary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to quinones and hydroxyquinones and with the oxidization and water solubility of metals. This has important implications in terms both of the utility of FPMOPtotal-DTT as a marker for exhaust emissions and of the importance of atmospheric processing of particulate matter (PM) being tied to potential health outcomes. The results from the personal exposure monitoring also point to the complexity and diversity of the spatiotemporal variability patterns among the study monitoring sites and the importance of accounting for location and spatial mobility when estimating exposures in panel-based and small-cohort studies. This was most clearly demonstrated with the personal BC measurements, where ambient roadside monitoring was shown to be a poor surrogate for exposures to BC. Alternative surrogates, including ambient and indoor BC at the participants' respective dorms, were more strongly associated with personal BC, and knowledge of the participants' mean proximity to the highway was also shown to explain a substantial level of the variability in corresponding personal exposures to both BC and NO2. In addition, untargeted metabolomic indicators measured in plasma and saliva, which represent emerging methods for measuring exposure, were used to extract approximately 20,000 and 30,000 features from plasma and saliva, respectively. Using hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) in the positive ion mode, we identified 221 plasma features that differed significantly between the two dorm cohorts. The bimodal distribution of these features in the HILIC column was highly idiosyncratic; one peak consisted of features with elevated intensities for participants living in the near dorm; the other consisted of features with elevated intensities for participants in the far dorm. Both peaks were characterized by relatively short retention times, indicative of the hydrophobicity of the identified features. The results from the metabolomics analyses provide a strong basis for continuing this work toward specific chemical validation of putative biomarkers of traffic-related pollution. Finally, the study had a supplemental aim of examining the performance of 18 low-cost CO, NO, NO2, O3, and PM2.5 pollutant sensors. These were colocated alongside the other study monitors and assessed for their ability to capture temporal trends observed by the reference monitoring instrumentation. Generally, we found the performance of the low-cost gas-phase sensors to be promising after extensive calibration; the uncalibrated measurements alone, however, would likely not have led to reliable results. The low-cost PM sensors we evaluated had poor accuracy, although PM sensor technology is evolving quickly and warrants future attention.

Conclusions

An immediate implication of the changing near-road environment is that future studies aimed at characterizing hotspots related to mobile sources and their impacts on health will need to consider multiple approaches for characterizing spatial gradients and exposures. Specifically and most directly, the mobile source contributions to ambient concentrations of single-pollutant indicators of traffic exposure are not as distinguishable to the degree that they have been in the past. Collectively, the study suggests that characterizing exposures to traffic-related pollutants, which is already difficult, will become more difficult because of the reduction in traffic-related emissions. Additional multi-tiered approaches should be considered along with traditional measurements, including the use of alternative OP measures beyond those based on DTT assays, metabolomics, low-cost sensors, and air quality modeling.

Impacts of Regulations on Air Quality and Emergency Department Visits in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area, 1999-2013

INTRODUCTION

The United States and Western Europe have seen great improvements in air quality, presumably in response to various regulations curtailing emissions from the broad range of sources that have contributed to local, regional, and global pollution. Such regulations, and the ensuing controls, however, have not come without costs, which are estimated at tens of billions of dollars per year. These costs motivate accountability-related questions such as, to what extent do regulations lead to emissions changes? More important, to what degree have the regulations provided the expected human health benefits?

Here, the impacts of specific regulations on both electricity generating unit (EGU) and on-road mobile sources are examined through the classical accountability process laid out in the 2003 Health Effects Institute report linking regulations to emissions to air quality to health effects, with a focus on the 1999-2013 period. This analysis centers on regulatory actions in the southeastern United States and their effects on health outcomes in the 5-county Atlanta metropolitan area. The regulations examined are largely driven by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (C). This work investigates regulatory actions and controls promulgated on EGUs: the Acid Rain Program (ARP), the NOx Budget Trading Program (NBP), and the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) - and mobile sources: Tier 2 Gasoline Vehicle Standards and the 2007 Heavy Duty Diesel Rule.

METHODS

Each step in the classic accountability process was addressed using one or more methods. Linking regulations to emissions was accomplished by identifying major federal regulations and the associated state regulations, along with analysis of individual facility emissions and control technologies and emissions modeling (e.g., using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's [U.S. EPA's] MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator [MOVES] mobile-source model). Regulators, including those from state environmental and transportation agencies, along with the public service commissions, play an important role in implementing federal rules and were involved along with other regional stakeholders in the study. We used trend analysis, air quality modeling, satellite data, and a ratio-of-ratios technique to investigate a critical current issue, a potential large bias in mobile-source oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions estimates.

The second link, emissions-air quality relationships, was addressed using both empirical analyses as well as chemical transport modeling employing the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filtering accounting for day of the year was used to separate the air quality signal into long-term, seasonal, weekday-holiday, and short-term meteorological signals. Regression modeling was then used to link emissions and meteorology to ambient concentrations for each of the species examined (ozone [O3], particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter [PM2.5], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], sulfur dioxide [SO2], carbon monoxide [CO], sulfate [SO4-2], nitrate [NO3-], ammonium [NH4+], organic carbon [OC], and elemental carbon [EC]). CMAQ modeling was likewise used to link emissions changes to air quality changes, as well as to further establish the relative roles of meteorology versus emissions change impacts on air quality trends. CMAQ and empirical modeling were used to investigate aerosol acidity trends, employing the ISORROPIA II thermodynamic equilibrium model to calculate pH based on aerosol composition. The relationships between emissions and meteorology were then used to construct estimated counterfactual air quality time series of daily pollutant concentrations that would have occurred in the absence of the regulations. Uncertainties in counterfactual air quality were captured by the construction of 5,000 pollutant time series using a Monte Carlo sampling technique, accounting for uncertainties in emissions and model parameters.

Health impacts of the regulatory actions were assessed using data on cardiorespiratory emergency department (ED) visits, using patient-level data in the Atlanta area for the 1999-2013 period. Four outcome groups were chosen based on previous studies identifying associations with ambient air pollution: a combined respiratory disease (RD) category; the subgroup of RD presenting with asthma; a combined cardiovascular disease (CVD) category; and the subgroup of CVD presenting with congestive heart failure (CHF).

Models were fit to estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants on ED visits in a time-series framework, using Poisson generalized linear models accounting for overdispersion, with a priori model formulations for temporal and meteorological covariates and lag structures. Several parameterizations were considered for the joint-effects models, including different sets of pollutants and models with nonlinear pollutant terms and first-order interactions among pollutants. Use of different periods for parameter estimates was assessed, as associations between pollutant levels and ED visits varied over the study period. A 7-pollutant, nonlinear model with pollutant interaction terms was chosen as the baseline model and fitted using pollutant and outcome data from 1999-2005 before regulations might have substantially changed the toxicity of pollutant mixtures. In separate analyses, these models were fitted using pollutant and outcome data from the entire 1999-2013 study period. Daily counterfactual time series of pollutant concentrations were then input into the health models, and the differences between the observed and counterfactual concentrations were used to estimate the impacts of the regulations on daily counts of ED visits. To account for the uncertainty in both the estimation of the counterfactual time series of ambient pollutant levels and the estimation of the health model parameters, we simulated 5,000 sets of parameter estimates using a multivariate normal distribution based on the observed variance-covariance matrix, allowing for uncertainty at each step of the chain of accountability. Sensitivity tests were conducted to assess the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

EGU NOx and SO2 emissions in the Southeast decreased by 82% and 83%, respectively, between 1999 and 2013, while mobile-source emissions controls led to estimated decreases in Atlanta-area pollutant emissions of between 61% and 93%, depending on pollutant. While EGU emissions were measured, mobile-source emissions were modeled. Our results are supportive of a potential high bias in mobile-source NOx and CO emissions estimates. Air quality benefits from regulatory actions have increased as programs have been fully implemented and have had varying impacts over different seasons. In a scenario that accounted for all emissions reductions across the period, observed Atlanta central monitoring site maximum daily 8-hour (MDA8h) O3 was estimated to have been reduced by controls in the summertime and increased in the wintertime, with a change in mean annual MDA8h O3 from 39.7 ppb (counterfactual) to 38.4 ppb (observed). PM2.5 reductions were observed year-round, with average 2013 values at 8.9 μg/m3 (observed) versus 19.1 μg/m3 (counterfactual). Empirical and CMAQ analyses found that long-term meteorological trends across the Southeast over the period examined played little role in the distribution of species concentrations, while emissions changes explained the decreases observed. Aerosol pH, which plays a key role in aerosol formation and dynamics and may have health implications, was typically very low (on the order of 1-2, but sometimes much lower), with little trend over time despite the stringent SO2 controls and SO42- reductions.

Using health models fit from 1999-2005, emissions reductions from all selected pollution-control policies led to an estimated 55,794 cardiorespiratory disease ED visits prevented (i.e., fewer observed ED visits than would have been expected under counterfactual scenarios) - 52,717 RD visits, of which 38,038 were for asthma, and 3,057 CVD visits, of which 2,104 were for CHF - among the residents of the 5-county area over the 1999-2013 period, an area with approximately 3.5 million people in 2013. During the final two years of the study (2012-2013), when pollution-control policies were most fully implemented and the associated benefits realized, these policies were estimated to prevent 5.9% of the RD ED visits that would have occurred in the absence of the policies (95% interval estimate: -0.4% to 12.3%); 16.5% of the asthma ED visits (95% interval estimate: 7.5% to 25.1%); 2.3% of the CVD ED visits (95% interval estimate: -1.8% to 6.2%); and -.6% of the CHF ED visits (95% interval estimate: 26.3% to 10.4%). Estimates of ED visits prevented were generally lower when using health models fit for the entire 1999-2013 study period.

Sensitivity analyses were conducted to show the impact of the choice of parameterization of the health models and to assess alternative definitions of the study area. When impacts were assessed for separate policy interventions, policies affecting emissions from EGUs, especially the ARP and the NBP, appeared to have had the greatest effect on prevention of RD and asthma ED visits.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the effectiveness of regulations on improving air quality and health in the southeastern United States. It also demonstrates the complexities of accountability assessments as uncertainties are introduced in each step of the classic accountability process. While accounting for uncertainties in emissions, air quality-emissions relationships, and health models does lead to relatively large uncertainties in the estimated outcomes due to specific regulations, overall the benefits of regulations have been substantial.

Ambient Air Quality Measurements from a Continuously Moving Mobile Platform: Estimation of Area-Wide, Fuel-Based, Mobile Source Emission Factors Using Absolute Principal Component Scores

We have applied the absolute principal component scores (APCS) receptor model to on-road, background-adjusted measurements of NOx, CO, CO₂, black carbon (BC), and particle number (PN) obtained from a continuously moving platform deployed over nine afternoon sampling periods in Seattle, WA. Two Varimax-rotated principal component features described 75% of the overall variance of the observations. A heavy-duty vehicle feature was correlated with black carbon and particle number, whereas a light-duty feature was correlated with CO and CO₂. NO_x had moderate correlation with both features. The bootstrapped APCS model predictions were used to estimate area-wide, average fuel-based emission factors and their respective 95% confidence limits. The average emission factors for NOx, CO, BC and PN (14.8, 18.9, 0.40 g/kg, and 4.3×10¹⁵ particles/kg for heavy duty vehicles, and 3.2, 22.4, 0.016 g/kg, and 0.19×10¹⁵ particles/kg for light-duty vehicles, respectively) are consistent with previous estimates based on remote sensing, vehicle chase studies, and recent dynamometer tests. Information on the spatial distribution of the concentrations contributed by these two vehicle categories relative to background during the sampling period was also obtained.

Current approaches used in epidemiologic studies to examine short-term multipollutant air pollution exposures

PURPOSE

Air pollution epidemiology traditionally focuses on the relationship between individual air pollutants and health outcomes (e.g., mortality). To account for potential copollutant confounding, individual pollutant associations are often estimated by adjusting or controlling for other pollutants in the mixture. Recently, the need to characterize the relationship between health outcomes and the larger multipollutant mixture has been emphasized in an attempt to better protect public health and inform more sustainable air quality management decisions.

METHODS

New and innovative statistical methods to examine multipollutant exposures were identified through a broad literature search, with a specific focus on those statistical approaches currently used in epidemiologic studies of short-term exposures to criteria air pollutants (i.e., particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone).

RESULTS

Five broad classes of statistical approaches were identified for examining associations between short-term multipollutant exposures and health outcomes, specifically additive main effects, effect measure modification, unsupervised dimension reduction, supervised dimension reduction, and nonparametric methods. These approaches are characterized including advantages and limitations in different epidemiologic scenarios.

DISCUSSION

By highlighting the characteristics of various studies in which multipollutant statistical methods have been used, this review provides epidemiologists and biostatisticians with a resource to aid in the selection of the most optimal statistical method to use when examining multipollutant exposures.

Evaluating the effectiveness of air quality regulations: A review of accountability studies and frameworks

Assessments of past environmental policies-termed accountability studies-contribute important information to the decision-making process used to review the efficacy of past policies, and subsequently aid in the development of effective new policies. These studies have used a variety of methods that have achieved varying levels of success at linking improvements in air quality and/or health to regulations. The Health Effects Institute defines the air pollution accountability framework as a chain of events that includes the regulation of interest, air quality, exposure/dose, and health outcomes, and suggests that accountability research should address impacts for each of these linkages. Early accountability studies investigated short-term, local regulatory actions (for example, coal use banned city-wide on a specific date or traffic pattern changes made for Olympic Games). Recent studies assessed regulations implemented over longer time and larger spatial scales. Studies on broader scales require accountability research methods that account for effects of confounding factors that increase over time and space. Improved estimates of appropriate baseline levels (sometimes termed "counterfactual"-the expected state in a scenario without an intervention) that account for confounders and uncertainties at each link in the accountability chain will help estimate causality with greater certainty. In the direct accountability framework, researchers link outcomes with regulations using statistical methods that bypass the link-by-link approach of classical accountability. Direct accountability results and methods complement the classical approach. New studies should take advantage of advanced planning for accountability studies, new data sources (such as satellite measurements), and new statistical methods. Evaluation of new methods and data sources is necessary to improve investigations of long-term regulations, and associated uncertainty should be accounted for at each link to provide a confidence estimate of air quality regulation effectiveness. The final step in any accountability is the comparison of results with the proposed benefits of an air quality policy.

IMPLICATIONS

The field of air pollution accountability continues to grow in importance to a number of stakeholders. Two frameworks, the classical accountability chain and direct accountability, have been used to estimate impacts of regulatory actions, and both require careful attention to confounders and uncertainties. Researchers should continue to develop and evaluate both methods as they investigate current and future air pollution regulations.

Exploring associations between multipollutant day types and asthma morbidity: epidemiologic applications of self-organizing map ambient air quality classifications

BACKGROUND

Recent interest in the health effects of air pollution focuses on identifying combinations of multiple pollutants that may be associated with adverse health risks.

OBJECTIVE

Present a methodology allowing health investigators to explore associations between categories of ambient air quality days (i.e., multipollutant day types) and adverse health.

METHODS

First, we applied a self-organizing map (SOM) to daily air quality data for 10 pollutants collected between January 1999 and December 2008 at a central monitoring location in Atlanta, Georgia to define a collection of multipollutant day types. Next, we conducted an epidemiologic analysis using our categories as a multipollutant metric of ambient air quality and daily counts of emergency department (ED) visits for asthma or wheeze among children aged 5 to 17 as the health endpoint. We estimated rate ratios (RR) for the association of multipollutant day types and pediatric asthma ED visits using a Poisson generalized linear model controlling for long-term, seasonal, and weekday trends and weather.

RESULTS

Using a low pollution day type as the reference level, we found significant associations of increased asthma morbidity in three of nine categories suggesting adverse effects when combinations of primary (CO, NO2, NOX, EC, and OC) and/or secondary (O3, NH4, SO4) pollutants exhibited elevated concentrations (typically, occurring on dry days with low wind speed). On days with only NO3 elevated (which tended to be relatively cool) and on days when only SO2 was elevated (which likely reflected plume touchdowns from coal combustion point sources), estimated associations were modestly positive but confidence intervals included the null.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that ED visits for pediatric asthma in Atlanta were more strongly associated with certain day types defined by multipollutant characteristics than days with low pollution levels; however, findings did not suggest that any specific combinations were more harmful than others. Relative to other health endpoints, asthma exacerbation may be driven more by total ambient pollutant exposure than by composition.

Particulate matter components, sources, and health: Systematic approaches to testing effects

Exposure to particulate matter (PM) is associated with adverse health outcomes. There has long been a question as to whether some components of the PM mixture are of greater public health concern than others so that the sources that emit the more toxic components could be controlled. In this paper, we describe the National Particle Component Toxicity (NPACT) initiative, a comprehensive research program that combined epidemiologic and toxicologic approaches to evaluate this critical question, partly relying on information from a national network of air quality monitors that provided data on speciated PM2.5 (PM with an aerodynamic diameter<2.5 μm) starting in 2000. We also consider the results of the NPACT program in the context of selected research on PM components and health in order to assess the current state of the field. Overall, the ambitious NPACT research program found associations of secondary sulfate and, to a somewhat lesser extent, traffic sources with health effects. Although this and other research has linked a variety of health effects to multiple groups of PM components and sources of PM, the collective evidence has not yet isolated factors or sources that would be closely and unequivocally more strongly related to specific health outcomes. If greater success is to be achieved in isolating the effects of pollutants from mobile and other major sources, either as individual components or as a mixture, more advanced approaches and additional measurements will be needed so that exposure at the individual or population level can be assessed more accurately. Enhanced understanding of exposure and health effects is needed before it can be concluded that regulations targeting specific sources or components of PM2.5 will protect public health more effectively than continuing to follow the current practices of targeting PM2.5 mass as a whole.

IMPLICATIONS

This paper describes a comprehensive epidemiologic and toxicologic research program to evaluate whether some components and sources of PM may be more toxic than others. This question is important for regulatory agencies in setting air quality standards to protect people's health. The results show that PM from coal and oil combustion and from traffic sources was associated with adverse health outcomes, but other components and sources could not definitively be ruled out. Thus, given current knowledge, the current practice of setting air quality standards for PM mass as a whole likely remains an effective approach to protecting public health.

Joint effects of ambient air pollutants on pediatric asthma emergency department visits in Atlanta, 1998-2004

BACKGROUND

Because ambient air pollution exposure occurs as mixtures, consideration of joint effects of multiple pollutants may advance our understanding of the health effects of air pollution.

METHODS

We assessed the joint effect of air pollutants on pediatric asthma emergency department visits in Atlanta during 1998-2004. We selected combinations of pollutants that were representative of oxidant gases and secondary, traffic, power plant, and criteria pollutants, constructed using combinations of criteria pollutants and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) components. Joint effects were assessed using multipollutant Poisson generalized linear models controlling for time trends, meteorology, and daily nonasthma upper respiratory emergency department visit counts. Rate ratios (RRs) were calculated for the combined effect of an interquartile range increment in each pollutant's concentration.

RESULTS

Increases in all of the selected pollutant combinations were associated with increases in warm-season pediatric asthma emergency department visits (eg, joint-effect RR = 1.13 [95% confidence interval = 1.06-1.21] for criteria pollutants, including ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5). Cold-season joint effects from models without nonlinear effects were generally weaker than warm-season effects. Joint-effect estimates from multipollutant models were often smaller than estimates based on single-pollutant models, due to control for confounding. Compared with models without interactions, joint-effect estimates from models including first-order pollutant interactions were largely similar. There was evidence of nonlinear cold-season effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses illustrate how consideration of joint effects can add to our understanding of health effects of multipollutant exposures and also illustrate some of the complexities involved in calculating and interpreting joint effects of multiple pollutants.

Comparing multipollutant emissions-based mobile source indicators to other single pollutant and multipollutant indicators in different urban areas

A variety of single pollutant and multipollutant metrics can be used to represent exposure to traffic pollutant mixtures and evaluate their health effects. Integrated mobile source indicators (IMSIs) that combine air quality concentration and emissions data have recently been developed and evaluated using data from Atlanta, Georgia. IMSIs were found to track trends in traffic-related pollutants and have similar or stronger associations with health outcomes. In the current work, we apply IMSIs for gasoline, diesel and total (gasoline + diesel) vehicles to two other cities (Denver, Colorado and Houston, Texas) with different emissions profiles as well as to a different dataset from Atlanta. We compare spatial and temporal variability of IMSIs to single-pollutant indicators (carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and elemental carbon (EC)) and multipollutant source apportionment factors produced by Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). Across cities, PMF-derived and IMSI gasoline metrics were most strongly correlated with CO (r = 0.31–0.98), while multipollutant diesel metrics were most strongly correlated with EC (r = 0.80–0.98). NO_x correlations with PMF factors varied across cities (r = 0.29–0.67), while correlations with IMSIs were relatively consistent (r = 0.61–0.94). In general, single-pollutant metrics were more correlated with IMSIs (r = 0.58–0.98) than with PMF-derived factors (r = 0.07–0.99). A spatial analysis indicated that IMSIs were more strongly correlated (r > 0.7) between two sites in each city than single pollutant and PMF factors. These findings provide confidence that IMSIs provide a transferable, simple approach to estimate mobile source air pollution in cities with differing topography and source profiles using readily available data.

Evaluating the application of multipollutant exposure metrics in air pollution health studies

BACKGROUND

Health effects associated with air pollution are typically evaluated using a single pollutant approach, yet people are exposed to mixtures consisting of multiple pollutants that may have independent or combined effects on human health. Development of exposure metrics that represent the multipollutant environment is important to understand the impact of ambient air pollution on human health.

OBJECTIVES

We reviewed existing multipollutant exposure metrics to evaluate how they can be applied to understand associations between air pollution and health effects.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search using both targeted search terms and a relational search in Web of Science and PubMed in April and December 2013. We focused on exposure metrics that are constructed from ambient pollutant concentrations and can be broadly applied to evaluate air pollution health effects.

RESULTS

Multipollutant exposure metrics were identified in 57 eligible studies. Metrics reviewed can be categorized into broad pollutant grouping paradigms based on: 1) source emissions and atmospheric processes or 2) common health outcomes.

DISCUSSION

When comparing metrics, it is apparent that no universal exposure metric exists; each type of metric addresses different research questions and provides unique information on human health effects. Key limitations of these metrics include the balance between complexity and simplicity as well as the lack of an existing "gold standard" for multipollutant health effects and exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Future work on characterizing multipollutant exposure error and joint effects will inform development of improved multipollutant metrics to advance air pollution health effects research and human health risk assessment.