Sample size determination for Bayesian analysis of small n sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trials (snSMARTs) with three agents

Bayesian design of clinical trials using the scale transformed power prior

There are many Bayesian design methods allowing for the incorporation of historical data for sample size determination (SSD) in situations where the outcome in the historical data is the same as the outcome of a new study. However, there is a dearth of methods supporting the incorporation of data from a previously completed clinical trial that investigated the same or similar treatment as the new trial but had a primary outcome that is different. We propose a simulation-based Bayesian SSD framework using the partial-borrowing scale transformed power prior (straPP). The partial-borrowing straPP is developed by applying a novel scale transformation to a traditional power prior on the parameters from the historical data model to make the information better align with the new data model. The scale transformation is based on the assumption that the standardized parameters (i.e., parameters multiplied by the square roots of their respective Fisher information matrices) are equal. To illustrate the method, we present results from simulation studies that use real data from a previously completed clinical trial to design a new clinical trial with a primary time-to-event endpoint.

Addressing sequential and concurrent treatment regimens in a small n sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (snSMART) in the MISTIC study

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare and novel pediatric complication linked to COVID-19 exposure, which was first identified in April 2020. A small n, Sequential, Multiple Assignment, Randomized Trial (snSMART) was applied to the Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome Therapies in Children Comparative Effectiveness Study (MISTIC) to efficiently evaluate multiple competing treatments. In the MISTIC snSMART study, participants are randomized to one of three interventions (steroids, infliximab or anakinra), and potentially re-randomized to the remaining two treatments depending on their response to the first randomized treatment. However, given the novelty and urgency of the MIS-C disease, in addition to patient welfare concerns, treatments were not always administered sequentially, but allowed to be administered concurrently if deemed medically necessary. We propose a pragmatic modification to the original snSMART design to address the analysis of concurrent versus sequential treatments in the MISTIC study. A modified Bayesian joint stage model is developed that can distinguish a concurrent treatment effect from a sequential treatment effect. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the improved accuracy and efficiency of the primary aim to estimate the first stage treatments' response rates and the secondary aim to estimate the combined first and second stage treatments' responses in the proposed model compared to the standard snSMART Bayesian joint stage model. We observed that the modified model has improved efficiency in terms of bias and rMSE under large sample size settings.

Dynamic enrichment of Bayesian small-sample, sequential, multiple assignment randomized trial design using natural history data: a case study from Duchenne muscular dystrophy

In Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and other rare diseases, recruiting patients into clinical trials is challenging. Additionally, assigning patients to long-term, multi-year placebo arms raises ethical and trial retention concerns. This poses a significant challenge to the traditional sequential drug development paradigm. In this paper, we propose a small-sample, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (snSMART) design that combines dose selection and confirmatory assessment into a single trial. This multi-stage design evaluates the effects of multiple doses of a promising drug and re-randomizes patients to appropriate dose levels based on their Stage 1 dose and response. Our proposed approach increases the efficiency of treatment effect estimates by (i) enriching the placebo arm with external control data, and (ii) using data from all stages. Data from external control and different stages are combined using a robust meta-analytic combined (MAC) approach to consider the various sources of heterogeneity and potential selection bias. We reanalyze data from a DMD trial using the proposed method and external control data from the Duchenne Natural History Study (DNHS). Our method's estimators show improved efficiency compared to the original trial. Also, the robust MAC-snSMART method most often provides more accurate estimators than the traditional analytic method. Overall, the proposed methodology provides a promising candidate for efficient drug development in DMD and other rare diseases.

Design and analysis considerations for utilizing a mapping function in a small sample, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trials with continuous outcomes

Small sample, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trials (snSMARTs) are multistage trials with the overall goal of determining the best treatment after a fixed amount of time. In snSMART trials, patients are first randomized to one of three treatments and a binary (e.g. response/nonresponse) outcome is measured at the end of the first stage. Responders to first stage treatment continue their treatment. Nonresponders to first stage treatment are rerandomized to one of the remaining treatments. The same binary outcome is measured at the end of the first and second stages, and data from both stages are pooled together to find the best first stage treatment. However, in many settings the primary endpoint may be continuous, and dichotomizing this continuous variable may reduce statistical efficiency. In this article, we extend the snSMART design and methods to allow for continuous outcomes. Instead of requiring a binary outcome at the first stage for rerandomization, the probability of staying on the same treatment or switching treatment is a function of the first stage outcome. Rerandomization based on a mapping function of a continuous outcome allows for snSMART designs without requiring a binary outcome. We perform simulation studies to compare the proposed design with continuous outcomes to standard snSMART designs with binary outcomes. The proposed design results in more efficient treatment effect estimates and similar outcomes for trial patients.