Testing nested phylogenetic and phylogeographic hypotheses in the Plethodon vandykei species group

The role of multiple Pleistocene refugia in promoting diversification in the Pacific Northwest

Pleistocene glacial cycles drastically changed the distributions of taxa endemic to temperate rainforests in the Pacific Northwest, with many experiencing reduced habitat suitability during glacial periods. In this study, we investigate whether glacial cycles promoted intraspecific divergence and whether subsequent range changes led to secondary contact and gene flow. For seven invertebrate species endemic to the PNW, we estimated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and projected them onto current and historical climate conditions to assess how habitat suitability changed during glacial cycles. Using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from these species, we assessed population genetic structure and used a machine-learning approach to compare models with and without gene flow between populations upon secondary contact after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Finally, we estimated divergence times and rates of gene flow between populations. SDMs suggest that there was less suitable habitat in the North Cascades and Northern Rocky Mountains during glacial compared to interglacial periods, resulting in reduced habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation during the LGM. Our genomic data identify population structure in all taxa, and support gene flow upon secondary contact in five of the seven taxa. Parameter estimates suggest that population divergences date to the later Pleistocene for most populations. Our results support a role of refugial dynamics in driving intraspecific divergence in the Cascades Range. In these invertebrates, population structure often does not correspond to current biogeographic or environmental barriers. Rather, population structure may reflect refugial lineages that have since expanded their ranges, often leading to secondary contact between once isolated lineages.

Genomic evidence of an ancient Inland Temperate Rainforest in the Pacific Northwest of North America

The disjunct temperate rainforests of the Pacific Northwest of North America (PNW) are characterized by late‐successional dominant tree species Thuja plicata (western redcedar) and Tsuga heterophylla (western hemlock). The demographic histories of these species, along with the PNW rainforest ecosystem in its entirety, have been heavily impacted by geological and climatic changes the PNW has experienced over the last 5 million years, including mountain orogeny and repeated Pleistocene glaciations. These environmental events have ultimately shaped the history of these species, with inland populations potentially being extirpated during the Pleistocene glaciations. Here, we collect genomic data for both species across their ranges to test multiple demographic models, each reflecting a different phylogeographical hypothesis on how the ecosystem‐dominating species may have responded to dramatic climatic change. Our results indicate that inland and coastal populations in both species diverged ~2.5 million years ago in the early Pleistocene and experienced decreases in population size during glacial cycles, with subsequent population expansion. Importantly, we found evidence for gene flow between coastal and inland populations during the mid‐Holocene. It is likely that intermittent migration in these species during this time has prevented allopatric speciation via genetic drift alone. In conclusion, our results from combining genomic data and demographic inference procedures establish that populations of the ecosystem dominants Thuja plicata and Tsuga heterophylla persisted in refugia located in both the coastal and inland regions of the PNW throughout the Pleistocene, with populations expanding and contracting in response to glacial cycles with occasional gene flow.

Reduced genetic diversity associated with the northern expansion of an amphibian species with high habitat specialization, Ascaphus truei , resolved using two types of genetic markers

Reconstruction of historical relationships between geographic regions within a species’ range can indicate dispersal patterns and help predict future responses to shifts in climate. Ascaphus truei (coastal tailed frog) is an indicator species of the health of forests and perennial streams in the Coastal and Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest of North America. We used two genetic techniques—microsatellite and genotype‐by‐sequencing (GBS)—to compare the within‐region genetic diversity of populations near the northern extent of the species’ range (British Columbia, Canada) to two geographic regions in British Columbia and two in Washington, USA, moving toward the core of the range. Allelic richness and heterozygosity declined substantially as latitude increased. The northernmost region had the lowest mean expected heterozygosities for both techniques (microsatellite, M = 0.20, SE = 0.080; GBS, M = 0.025, SE = 0.0010) and the southernmost region had the highest (microsatellite, M = 0.88, SE = 0.054; GBS, M = 0.20, SE = 0.0029). The northernmost regions (NC and MC) clustered together in population structure models for both genetic techniques. Our discovery of reduced diversity may have important conservation and management implications for population connectivity and the response of A. truei to climate change.

The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders' distribution

AIM

Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species of Plethodon in the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species-by-species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group.

LOCATION

Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT).

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Western Plethodon salamanders.

METHODS

Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage.

RESULTS

The distribution of western Plethodon salamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades of Plethodon species are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution of Plethodon species.

Carnivore Contact: A Species Fracture Zone Delineated Amongst Genetically Structured North American Marten Populations (Martes americana and Martes caurina)

North American martens are forest dependent, influenced by human activity, and climate vulnerable. They have long been managed and harvested throughout their range as the American marten (Martes americana). Recent work has expanded evidence for the original description of two species in North America — M. americana and the Pacific Coast marten, M. caurina — but the geographic boundary between these groups has not been described in detail. From 2010 to 2016 we deployed 734 multi-taxa winter bait stations across a 53,474 km² study area spanning seven mountain ranges within the anticipated contact zone along the border of Canada and the United States. We collected marten hair samples and developed genotypes for 15 polymorphic microsatellite loci for 235 individuals, and 493 base-pair sequences of the mtDNA gene COI for 175 of those individuals. Both nuclear and mitochondrial genetic structure identified a sharp break across the Clark Fork Valley, United States with M. americana and M. caurina occurring north and south of the break, respectively. We estimated global effective population size (N_e) for each mountain range, clinal genetic neighborhood sizes (NS), calculated observed (H_o) and expected (H_e) heterozygosity, fixation index (F_ST), and clinal measures of allelic richness (Ar), H_o, and inbreeding coefficient (F_IS). Despite substantial genetic structure, we detected hybridization along the fracture zone with both contemporary (nuclear DNA) and historic (mtDNA) gene flow. Marten populations in our study area are highly structured and the break across the fracture zone being the largest documented in North America (F_ST range 0.21–0.34, mean = 0.27). With the exception of the Coeur d’Alene Mountains, marten were well distributed across higher elevation portions of our sampling area. Clinal NS values were variable suggesting substantial heterogeneity in marten density and movement. For both M. americana and M. caurina, elevationaly dependent gene flow and high genetic population structure suggest that connectivity corridors will be important to ensuring long-term population persistence. Our study is an example of how a combination of global and clinal molecular data analyses can provide important information for natural resource management.

Complex interplay of ancient vicariance and recent patterns of geographical speciation in north-western North American temperate rainforests explains the phylogeny of jumping slugs (Hemphillia spp.)

The history of the currently disjunct temperate rainforests of the Pacific Northwest of North America has shaped the evolution and diversity of endemics. This study focuses on how geological and climatic perturbations have driven speciation in the area by isolating lineages. We investigated the phylogenetic relationships and historical biogeography of the endemic jumping slugs (genus Hemphillia) using a multi-locus phylogeny. We evaluated the spatial distribution and divergence times of major lineages, generated ancestral area probabilities and inferred the biogeographical history of the genus. Our study revealed eight genetic lineages that formed three clades: one clade consisting of two Coast/Cascade lineages, and two reciprocally monophyletic clades that each contain a Coast/Cascade and two Rocky Mountains taxa. The results of the biogeographical analysis suggest that the ancestral range of the genus occupied Coast/Cascade habitats and then spread across into Northern Rocky Mountain interior habitats with subsequent fragmentations isolating coastal and inland lineages. Finally, there have been more recent speciation events among three lineage pairs that have shaped shallow structures of all clades. We add to our knowledge of the biogeographical history of the region in that we discovered diversification and speciation events that have occurred in ways more complex than previously thought.

Genetic divergence correlates with the contemporary landscape in populations of Slimy Salamander (Plethodon glutinosus) species complex across the lower Piedmont and Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States

A primary goal of landscape genetics is to elucidate factors associated with genetic structure among populations. Among the important patterns identified have been isolation by distance (IBD), isolation by barrier (IBB), and isolation by environment (IBE). We tested hypotheses relating each of these possible patterns to genetic divergence in the Slimy Salamander (Plethodon glutinosus (Green, 1818)) species complex across the lower Piedmont and Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA, and adjacent areas of South Carolina, USA. We sequenced 2148 total bp, including three regions of the mitochondrial genome and a nuclear intron, and related genetic distance to GIS-derived surrogate variables representing possible IBD (geographic distance), IBE (principal components of 19 climate variables, watershed, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)), and IBB (streams of fourth order and higher). Multiple matrix regression with randomization analysis indicated significant relationships between genetic distance and two principal components of climate, as well as NDVI. These results support roles for environment (IBE) in helping to drive genetic divergence in this group of salamanders. The absence of a significant influence of IBD and IBB was surprising. It is possible that the signal effects of geographic distance and barriers on genetic divergence may have been erased by more recent responses to the environment.

Combining allele frequency and tree-based approaches improves phylogeographic inference from natural history collections

Model selection approaches in phylogeography have allowed researchers to evaluate the support for competing demographic histories, which provides a mode of inference and a measure of uncertainty in understanding climatic and spatial influences on intraspecific diversity. Here, to rank all models in the comparison set and determine what proportion of the total support the top-ranked model garners, we conduct model selection using two analytical approaches-allele frequency-based, implemented in fastsimcoal2, and gene tree-based, implemented in phrapl. We then expand this model selection framework by including an assessment of absolute fit of the models to the data. For this, we utilize DNA isolated from existing natural history collections that span the distribution of red alder (Alnus rubra) in the Pacific Northwest of North America to generate genomic data for the evaluation of 13 demographic scenarios. The quality of DNA recovered from herbarium specimen leaf tissue was assessed for its utility and effectiveness in demographic model selection, specifically in the two approaches mentioned. We present strong support for the use of herbarium tissue in the generation of genomic DNA, albeit with the inclusion of additional quality control checks prior to library preparation and analyses with multiple approaches that incorporate various data. Analyses with allele frequency spectra and gene trees predominantly support A. rubra having experienced an ancient vicariance event with intermittent and frequent gene flow between the disjunct populations. Additionally, the data consistently fit the most frequently selected model, corroborating the model selection techniques. Finally, these results suggest that the A. rubra disjunct populations do not represent separate species.

Identifying Optimal Models of Evolution

Most phylogenetic methods are model-based and depend on models of evolution designed to approximate the evolutionary processes. Several methods have been developed to identify suitable models of evolution for phylogenetic analysis of alignments of nucleotide or amino acid sequences and some of these methods are now firmly embedded in the phylogenetic protocol. However, in a disturbingly large number of cases, it appears that these models were used without acknowledgement of their inherent shortcomings. In this chapter, we discuss the problem of model selection and show how some of the inherent shortcomings may be identified and overcome.

Phylogeographic model selection leads to insight into the evolutionary history of four-eyed frogs

Phylogeographic research investigates biodiversity at the interface between populations and species, in a temporal and geographic context. Phylogeography has benefited from analytical approaches that allow empiricists to estimate parameters of interest from the genetic data (e.g., θ = 4Neμ, population divergence, gene flow), and the widespread availability of genomic data allow such parameters to be estimated with greater precision. However, the actual inferences made by phylogeographers remain dependent on qualitative interpretations derived from these parameters' values and as such may be subject to overinterpretation and confirmation bias. Here we argue in favor of using an objective approach to phylogeographic inference that proceeds by calculating the probability of multiple demographic models given the data and the subsequent ranking of these models using information theory. We illustrate this approach by investigating the diversification of two sister species of four-eyed frogs of northeastern Brazil using single nucleotide polymorphisms obtained via restriction-associated digest sequencing. We estimate the composite likelihood of the observed data given nine demographic models and then rank these models using Akaike information criterion. We demonstrate that estimating parameters under a model that is a poor fit to the data is likely to produce values that lead to spurious phylogeographic inferences. Our results strongly imply that identifying which parameters to estimate from a given system is a key step in the process of phylogeographic inference and is at least as important as being able to generate precise estimates of these parameters. They also illustrate that the incorporation of model uncertainty should be a component of phylogeographic hypothesis tests.

Genetic Structure across Broad Spatial and Temporal Scales: Rocky Mountain Tailed Frogs (Ascaphus montanus; Anura: Ascaphidae) in the Inland Temperate Rainforest

Contemporary and historical processes interact to structure genetic variation, however discerning between these can be difficult. Here, we analyze range-wide variation at 13 microsatellite loci in 2098 Rocky Mountain tailed frogs, Ascaphus montanus, collected from 117 streams across the species distribution in the Inland Northwest (INW) and interpret that variation in light of historical phylogeography, contemporary landscape genetics, and the reconstructed paleodistribution of the species. Further, we project species distribution models (SDMs) to predict future changes in the range as a function of changing climate. Genetic structure has a strong spatial signature that is precisely congruent with a deep (~1.8 MY) phylogeographic split in mtDNA when we partition populations into 2 clusters (K = 2), and is congruent with refugia areas inferred from our paleorange reconstructions. There is a hierarchical pattern of geographic structure as we permit additional clusters, with populations clustering following mountain ranges. Nevertheless, genetic diversity is the highest in populations at the center of the range and is attenuated in populations closer to the range edges. Similarly, geographic distance is the single best predictor of pairwise genetic differentiation, but connectivity also is an important predictor. At intermediate and local geographic scales, deviations from isolation-by-distance are more apparent, at least in the northern portion of the distribution. These results indicate that both historical and landscape factors are contributing to the genetic structure and diversity of tailed frogs in the Inland Northwest.

Investigating the effects of Pleistocene events on genetic divergence within Richardsonius balteatus, a widely distributed western North American minnow

Background

Biogeographers seek to understand the influences of global climate shifts and geologic changes to the landscape on the ecology and evolution of organisms. Across both longer and shorter timeframes, the western North American landscape has experienced dynamic transformations related to various geologic processes and climatic oscillations, including events as recently as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20 Ka) that have impacted the evolution of the North American biota. Redside shiner is a cyprinid species that is widely distributed throughout western North America. The species’ native range includes several well-documented Pleistocene refugia. Here we use mitochondrial DNA sequence data to assess phylogeography, and to test two biogeographic hypotheses regarding post-glacial colonization by redside shiner: 1) Redside shiner entered the Bonneville Basin at the time of the Bonneville Flood (Late Pleistocene; 14.5 Ka), and 2) redside shiner colonized British Columbia post-glacially from a single refugium in the Upper Columbia River drainage.

Results

Genetic diversification in redside shiner began in the mid to late Pleistocene, but was not associated with LGM. Different clades of redside shiner were distributed in multiple glacial age refugia, and each clade retains a signature of population expansion, with clades having secondary contact in some areas.

Conclusions

Divergence times between redside shiner populations in the Bonneville Basin and the Upper Snake/Columbia River drainage precedes the Bonneville Flood, thus it is unlikely that redside shiner invaded the Bonneville Basin during this flooding event. All but one British Columbia population of redside shiner are associated with the Upper Columbia River drainage with the lone exception being a population near the coast, suggesting that the province as a whole was colonized from multiple refugia, but the inland British Columbia redside shiner populations are affiliated with a refugium in the Upper Columbia River drainage.

Model choice for phylogeographic inference using a large set of models

Model-based analyses are common in phylogeographic inference because they parameterize processes such as population division, gene flow and expansion that are of interest to biologists. Approximate Bayesian computation is a model-based approach that can be customized to any empirical system and used to calculate the relative posterior probability of several models, provided that suitable models can be identified for comparison. The question of how to identify suitable models is explored using data from Plethodon idahoensis, a salamander that inhabits the North American inland northwest temperate rainforest. First, we conduct an ABC analysis using five models suggested by previous research, calculate the relative posterior probabilities and find that a simple model of population isolation has the best fit to the data (PP=0.70). In contrast to this subjective choice of models to include in the analysis, we also specify models in a more objective manner by simulating prior distributions for 143 models that included panmixia, population isolation, change in effective population size, migration and range expansion. We then identify a smaller subset of models for comparison by generating an expectation of the highest posterior probability that a false model is likely to achieve due to chance and calculate the relative posterior probabilities of only those models that exceed this expected level. A model that parameterized divergence with population expansion and gene flow in one direction offered the best fit to the P. idahoensis data (in contrast to an isolation-only model from the first analysis). Our investigation demonstrates that the determination of which models to include in ABC model choice experiments is a vital component of model-based phylogeographic analysis.

Three new species in the harvestmen genus Acuclavella (Opiliones, Dyspnoi, Ischyropsalidoidea), including description of male Acuclavella quattuor Shear, 1986

In Shear's (1986) cladistic analysis of the Ischyropsalidoidea, he described the new genus Acuclavella including four new species from the Pacific Northwest states of Washington and Idaho. Several of these species descriptions were based on very limited sample sizes. Our recent field work has increased by more than an order of magnitude both the number of specimens and known localities for Acuclavella. We use this new material to interpret species limits in Acuclavella using morphometric analyses and DNA sequence data from four gene regions. We sequence for the first time the protein-coding homolog of the Wnt2 gene for phylogenetic reconstruction in Opiliones. Our multi-locus phylogeny corroborates a sister relationship between Acuclavella and Ceratolasma, as hypothesized using morphology by Shear (1986). Within Acuclavella, morphometric clusters and reciprocal allelic monophyly allows recognition of three additional species: Acuclavella leonardi sp. n., Acuclavella sheari sp. n., and Acuclavella makah sp. n. This work also describes the previously unknown male of Acuclavella quattuor, from specimens collected at the type locality. Our research identifies a number of novel morphologies for Acuclavella, including females with four pairs of spines, individuals with three pairs of spines on scute areas I-III, and a population with two pairs of spines disjunct from Acuclavella quattuor, which was diagnosed with this spination character. We were unable to assign these populations to existing species, and conservatively do not yet recognize them as new. Intrageneric morphometrics and phylogenetic inference in Acuclavella were often concordant. However, we demonstrate that species delimitation signal would not be detected if only a single line of evidence were utilized.

Phylogeny and historical demography of Cynops pyrrhogaster (Amphibia: Urodela): taxonomic relationships and distributional changes associated with climatic oscillations

We investigated the phylogenetic relationships and estimated the historical demography of the Japanese fire-bellied newt, Cynops pyrrhogaster, from Japanese mainlands using 1407-bp sequences of the mitochondrial DNA (NADH6, tRNAglu, cyt b) and 1208-bp sequences of nuclear DNA (Rag-1) genes. Phylogenetic trees based on mitochondrial DNA revealed four major haplotype clades (NORTHERN, CENTRAL, WESTERN, and SOUTHERN clades) within this species. Degree of genetic differentiation among major haplotype clades was very large for intraspecific variation, suggesting this species to be composed of four species lineages that replace each other geographically. Nuclear genetic variation presented no obvious patterns of geographic structure except for the distinctness of populations diagnosed by NORTHERN clade of mitochondrial haplotypes, suggesting results of incomplete lineage sorting. Current distribution and estimated divergence times for the genus Cynops suggest that the common ancestor of two Japanese species (C. pyrrhogaster and C. ensicauda from the Ryukyu Islands) had diverged at the edge of the continent corresponding to the present East China Sea and Central Ryukyus. Subsequent range expansion to Japanese mainland seems to have occurred in the middle Miocene. Population-genetic analyses indicated that all species lineages, except for the SOUTHERN one, experienced geographic population reductions and expansions associated with glacial and postglacial climatic oscillations.

Population dynamics of the endangered plant, Phaedranassa tunguraguae, from the Tropical Andean hotspot

The Tropical Andes is a diversity hotspot for plants, but there is a scant knowledge about patterns of genetic variation within its constituent species. Phaedranassa tunguraguae is an IUCN endangered plant species endemic to a single valley in the Ecuadorian Andes. We estimate the levels of genetic differentiation across the geographic distribution of P. tunguraguae using 12 microsatellite loci. We discuss factors that might influence the genetic structure of this species. Genetic distance was used to evaluate relationship among populations and geographic patterns. Bayesian methods were used to investigate population structure, migration, evidence of recent bottlenecks, and time of divergence. The 7 populations form 2 genetic clusters. These clusters show highly significant differentiation between them, along with isolation by distance. Allele richness decreases from the most diverse westernmost population to the least diverse easternmost population. The species overall shows an excess of homozygotes, with highest levels of inbreeding in the easternmost population. We found evidence of recent bottleneck events. Migration rates were in general low but were higher between populations within each of the clusters. Time of divergence between populations was related to historical volcanic activity in the area. Based on our results, we propose 2 management units for P. tunguraguae.

Extensive range persistence in peripheral and interior refugia characterizes Pleistocene range dynamics in a widespread Alpine plant species (Senecio carniolicus, Asteraceae)

Recent evidence suggests that survival of arctic-alpine organisms in peripheral or interior glacial refugia are not mutually exclusive and may both be involved in shaping an organism’s Pleistocene history, yet potentially at different time levels. Here, we test this hypothesis in a high-mountain plant (diploid lineage of Senecio carniolicus, Asteraceae) from the Eastern European Alps, in which patterns of morphological variation and current habitat requirements suggest survival in both types of refugia. To this end, we used AFLPs, nuclear and plastid DNA sequences and analysed them, among others, within a graph theoretic framework and using novel Bayesian methods of phylogeographic inference. On the basis of patterns of genetic diversity, occurrence of rare markers, distribution of distinct genetic lineages and patterns of range connectivity both interior refugia in the formerly strongly glaciated central Alps and peripheral refugia along the southern margin of the Alps were identified. The presence of refugia congruently inferred by markers resolving at different time levels suggests that these refugia acted as such throughout several glacial cycles. The high degree of range persistence together with gradual range expansion, which contrasts with the extent of range shifts implied for other Alpine species, is likely responsible for incipient lineage differentiation evident from the genetic data. Replacing a simplistic peripheral vs. interior refugia dualism by more complex models involving both types of refugia and considering different time levels will help identifying common phylogeographic patterns with respect to, for instance, location of refugia and colonization routes and elucidating their underlying genetic and/or ecological causes.

Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four yucca moths

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community--Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes.

Analysis of climate paths reveals potential limitations on species range shifts

Forecasts of species endangerment under climate change usually ignore the processes by which species ranges shift. By analysing the 'climate paths' that range shifts might follow, and two key range-shift processes--dispersal and population persistence--we show that short-term climatic and population characteristics have dramatic effects on range-shift forecasts. By employing this approach with 15 amphibian species in the western USA, we make unexpected predictions. First, inter-decadal variability in climate change can prevent range shifts by causing gaps in climate paths, even in the absence of geographic barriers. Second, the hitherto unappreciated trait of persistence during unfavourable climatic conditions is critical to species range shifts. Third, climatic fluctuations and low persistence could lead to endangerment even if the future potential range size is large. These considerations may render habitat corridors ineffectual for some species, and conservationists may need to consider managed relocation and augmentation of in situ populations.

Local-scale environmental variation generates highly divergent lineages associated with stream drainages in a terrestrial salamander, Plethodon caddoensis

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environmental factors can have profound effects on diversification in species that are tightly linked to their environments. The Caddo Mountain Salamander (Plethodon caddoensis) inhabits a unique physiographic section of the Ouachita Mountains in central North America, a region in which Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have been implicated in driving lineage diversification in two other closely related salamanders. We examined P. caddoensis to determine whether it was similarly impacted by historic climatic changes and test whether physiographic features unique to the area also contributed to its diversification. We found that P. caddoensis is composed of four highly divergent, geographically distinct lineages that abut one another along an east-west axis. Phylogeographic structure was significantly related to both geographic distance and stream drainages, indicating that connectivity of streams and stream-associated habitats (e.g., talus) influence patterns of interpopulation gene flow. Lineages originated during the Middle Miocene and population size decreased in all lineages during the Pleistocene. Surface Geology and precipitation were the most important variables predicting the species distribution. Our results show that the unique physiographic features of the area coupled with species response to climatic factors have driven lineage diversification and phylogeographic structure in P. caddoensis. Variation in responses to historic climatic fluctuations among salamander species in this region underscore the importance of integrating species ecology with other factors such as geology and hydrology in order to better understand the effects of climate change on species with close associations to their environments.

Ginkgo: spatially-explicit simulator of complex phylogeographic histories

We present Ginkgo, a software package for agent-based, forward-time simulations of genealogies of multiple unlinked loci from diploid populations. Ginkgo simulates the evolution of one or more species on a spatially explicit landscape of cells. The user of the software can specify the geographical and environmental characteristics of the landscape, and these properties can change according to a prespecified schedule. The geographical elements modelled include the arrangement of cells and movement rates between particular cells. Each species has a function that can calculate a fitness score for any combination of an individual organism's phenotype and environmental characteristics. The user can control the number of fitness factors (the dimensionality of the cell-specific fitness factors and the individuals phenotypic vectors) and the weighting of each of these dimensions in the fitness calculation. Cell-specific fitness trait optima can be specified across the landscape to mimic differences in habitat. In addition to their differing fitness functions, species can differ in terms of their vagility and fecundity. Genealogies and occurrence data can be produced at any time during the simulation in NEXUS and ESRI Ascii Grid formats, respectively.

Approximating model probabilities in Bayesian information criterion and decision-theoretic approaches to model selection in phylogenetics

A priori selection of models for use in phylogeny estimation from molecular sequence data is increasingly important as the number and complexity of available models increases. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the derivative decision-theoretic (DT) approaches rely on a conservative approximation to estimate the posterior probability of a given model. Here, we extended the DT method by using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches to directly estimate model probabilities for an extended candidate pool of all 406 special cases of the general time reversible + Γ family. We analyzed 250 diverse data sets in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the BIC approximation for model selection under the BIC and DT approaches. Model choice under DT differed between the BIC approximation and direct estimation methods for 45% of the data sets (113/250), and differing model choice resulted in significantly different sets of trees in the posterior distributions for 26% of the data sets (64/250). The model with the lowest BIC score differed from the model with the highest posterior probability in 30% of the data sets (76/250). When the data indicate a clear model preference, the BIC approximation works well enough to result in the same model selection as with directly estimated model probabilities, but a substantial proportion of biological data sets lack this characteristic, which leads to selection of underparametrized models.

Nuclear gene phylogeography using PHASE: dealing with unresolved genotypes, lost alleles, and systematic bias in parameter estimation

Background

A widely-used approach for screening nuclear DNA markers is to obtain sequence data and use bioinformatic algorithms to estimate which two alleles are present in heterozygous individuals. It is common practice to omit unresolved genotypes from downstream analyses, but the implications of this have not been investigated. We evaluated the haplotype reconstruction method implemented by PHASE in the context of phylogeographic applications. Empirical sequence datasets from five non-coding nuclear loci with gametic phase ascribed by molecular approaches were coupled with simulated datasets to investigate three key issues: (1) haplotype reconstruction error rates and the nature of inference errors, (2) dataset features and genotypic configurations that drive haplotype reconstruction uncertainty, and (3) impacts of omitting unresolved genotypes on levels of observed phylogenetic diversity and the accuracy of downstream phylogeographic analyses.

Results

We found that PHASE usually had very low false-positives (i.e., a low rate of confidently inferring haplotype pairs that were incorrect). The majority of genotypes that could not be resolved with high confidence included an allele occurring only once in a dataset, and genotypic configurations involving two low-frequency alleles were disproportionately represented in the pool of unresolved genotypes. The standard practice of omitting unresolved genotypes from downstream analyses can lead to considerable reductions in overall phylogenetic diversity that is skewed towards the loss of alleles with larger-than-average pairwise sequence divergences, and in turn, this causes systematic bias in estimates of important population genetic parameters.

Conclusions

A combination of experimental and computational approaches for resolving phase of segregating sites in phylogeographic applications is essential. We outline practical approaches to mitigating potential impacts of computational haplotype reconstruction on phylogeographic inferences. With targeted application of laboratory procedures that enable unambiguous phase determination via physical isolation of alleles from diploid PCR products, relatively little investment of time and effort is needed to overcome the observed biases.

Inference of population history by coupling exploratory and model-driven phylogeographic analyses

Understanding the nature, timing and geographic context of historical events and population processes that shaped the spatial distribution of genetic diversity is critical for addressing questions relating to speciation, selection, and applied conservation management. Cladistic analysis of gene trees has been central to phylogeography, but when coupled with approaches that make use of different components of the information carried by DNA sequences and their frequencies, the strength and resolution of these inferences can be improved. However, assessing concordance of inferences drawn using different analytical methods or genetic datasets, and integrating their outcomes, can be challenging. Here we overview the strengths and limitations of different types of genetic data, analysis methods, and approaches to historical inference. We then turn our attention to the potentially synergistic interactions among widely-used and emerging phylogeographic analyses, and discuss some of the ways that spatial and temporal concordance among inferences can be assessed. We close this review with a brief summary and outlook on future research directions.

Phylogenetic relationships of the western North American cyprinid genus Richardsonius, with an overview of phylogeographic structure

Diversification of many North American taxa, including freshwater fishes, has been heavily influenced by the effects of complex geological and climatic events throughout the Cenozoic that have significantly altered the landscape. Here, we employ an array of phylogenetic analyses using a multiple gene tree approach to address several questions regarding the phylogenetic relationships of the North American cyprinid genus Richardsonius and two other closely related genera, Clinostomus and Iotichthys. We also use divergence time estimates generated using fossil calibrations to qualitatively assess the phylogeographic implications of evolution within the group. Mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences show a sister relationship between Iotichthys and Richardsonius, with Clinostomus being sister to an Iotichthys-Richardsonius clade, hence the currently recognized sister relationship between Clinostomus and Richardsonius is not supported. These genera appear to be monophyletic lineages, and sister species within genera appear to be reciprocally monophyletic. The two species within the genus Richardsonius both exhibit phylogeographic structure that is worthy of further investigation. Divergence time estimates between genera and species are Miocene or Pliocene in age, and divergence between phylogroups within species occurred in the late Pliocene to Pleistocene. These splits coincide with documented geological and climatic events.

An information-theoretical approach to phylogeography

Data analysis in phylogeographic investigations is typically conducted in either a qualitative manner, or alternatively via the testing of null hypotheses. The former, where inferences about population processes are derived from geographical patterns of genetic variation, may be subject to confirmation bias and prone to overinterpretation. Testing the predictions of null hypotheses is arguably less prone to bias than qualitative approaches, but only if the tested hypotheses are biologically meaningful. As it is difficult to know a priori if this is the case, there is the general need for additional methodological approaches in phylogeographic research. Here, we explore an alternative method for analysing phylogeographic data that utilizes information theory to quantify the probability of multiple hypotheses given the data. We accomplish this by augmenting the model-selection procedure implemented in ima with calculations of Akaike Information Criterion scores and model probabilities. We generate a ranking of 17 models each representing a set of historical evolutionary processes that may have contributed to the evolution of Plethodon idahoensis, and then quantify the relative strength of support for each hypothesis given the data using metrics borrowed from information theory. Our results suggest that two models have high probability given the data. Each of these models includes population divergence and estimates of ancestral theta that differ from estimates of descendent theta, inferences consistent with prior work in this system. However, the models disagree in that one includes migration as a parameter and one does not, suggesting that there are two regions of parameter space that produce model likelihoods that are similar in magnitude given our data. Results of a simulation study suggest that when data are simulated with migration, most of the optimal models include migration as a parameter, and further that when all of the shared polymorphism results from incomplete lineage sorting, most of the optimal models do not. The results could also indicate a lack of precision, which may be a product of the amount of data that we have collected. In any case, the information-theoretic metrics that we have applied to the analysis of our data are statistically rigorous, as are hypothesis-testing approaches, but move beyond the 'reject/fail to reject' dichotomy of conventional hypothesis testing in a manner that provides considerably more flexibility to researchers.

Range persistence during the last glacial maximum: Carex macrocephala was not restricted to glacial refugia

The distribution of many species inhabiting northwestern North America has been heavily influenced by the climatic changes during the late Pleistocene. Several studies have suggested that species were restricted to glacial refugia north and/or south of the continental ice sheet front. It is also hypothesized that the coast of northwestern North America could have been a prime location for glacial refugia because of the lowering of the eustatic sea level and the concomitant rise of the continental shelf because of tectonic rebound. Alternatively, some coastal species distributions and demographics may have been unaffected in the long-term by the last glacial maximum (LGM). We tested the glacial refugium hypothesis on an obligate coastal plant species, Carex macrocephala by sampling 600 individuals from 41 populations with 11 nuclear microsatellite loci and the rpL16 plastid intragenic spacer region. The microsatellite data sets suggest a low level of population differentiation with a standardized G'(ST) = 0.032 and inbreeding was high with an F = 0.969. The homogenization of the populations along the coast was supported by a principal coordinate analysis, amovas and samova analyses. Analyses using the rpL16 data set support the results of the microsatellite analyses, with a low F(ST) of 0.042. Coalescent and mismatch analyses using rpL16 suggest that C. macrocephala has not gone through a significant bottleneck within the past 100,000 years, although a much earlier population expansion was indicated by the mismatch analysis. Carex macrocephala exhibits the characteristics of metapopulation dynamics and on the basis of these results, we concluded that it was not restricted to glacial refugia during the LGM, but that it existed as a large metapopulation.

Phylogeographic and demographic effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in a montane salamander, Plethodon fourchensis

Climatic changes associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles profoundly affected species distributions, patterns of interpopulation gene flow, and demography. In species restricted to montane habitats, ranges may expand and contract along an elevational gradients in response to environmental fluctuations and create high levels of genetic variation among populations on different mountains. The salamander Plethodon fourchensis is restricted to high-elevation, mesic forest on five montane isolates in the Ouachita Mountains. We used DNA sequence data along with ecological niche modelling and coalescent simulations to test several hypotheses related to the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on species in montane habitats. Our results revealed that P. fourchensis is composed of four well-supported, geographically structured lineages. Geographic breaks between lineages occurred in the vicinity of major valleys and a narrow high-elevation pass. Ecological niche modelling predicted that environmental conditions in valleys separating most mountains are suitable; however, interglacial periods like the present are predicted to be times of range expansion in P. fourchensis. Divergence dating and coalescent simulations indicated that lineage diversification occurred during the Middle Pleistocene via the fragmentation of a wide-ranging ancestor. Bayesian skyline plots showed gradual decreases in population size in three of four lineages over the most recent glacial period and a slight to moderate amount of population growth during the Holocene. Our results not only demonstrate that climatic changes during the Pleistocene had profound effects on species restricted to montane habitats, but comparison of our results for P. fourchensis with its parapatric, sister taxon, P. ouachitae, also emphasizes how responses can vary substantially even among closely related, similarly distributed taxa.

Does choice in model selection affect maximum likelihood analysis?

In order to have confidence in model-based phylogenetic analysis, the model of nucleotide substitution adopted must be selected in a statistically rigorous manner. Several model-selection methods are applicable to maximum likelihood (ML) analysis, including the hierarchical likelihood-ratio test (hLRT), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and decision theory (DT), but their performance relative to empirical data has not been investigated thoroughly. In this study, we use 250 phylogenetic data sets obtained from TreeBASE to examine the effects that choice in model selection has on ML estimation of phylogeny, with an emphasis on optimal topology, bootstrap support, and hypothesis testing. We show that the use of different methods leads to the selection of two or more models for approximately 80% of the data sets and that the AIC typically selects more complex models than alternative approaches. Although ML estimation with different best-fit models results in incongruent tree topologies approximately 50% of the time, these differences are primarily attributable to alternative resolutions of poorly supported nodes. Furthermore, topologies and bootstrap values estimated with ML using alternative statistically supported models are more similar to each other than to topologies and bootstrap values estimated with ML under the Kimura two-parameter (K2P) model or maximum parsimony (MP). In addition, Swofford-Olsen-Waddell-Hillis (SOWH) tests indicate that ML trees estimated with alternative best-fit models are usually not significantly different from each other when evaluated with the same model. However, ML trees estimated with statistically supported models are often significantly suboptimal to ML trees made with the K2P model when both are evaluated with K2P, indicating that not all models perform in an equivalent manner. Nevertheless, the use of alternative statistically supported models generally does not affect tests of monophyletic relationships under either the Shimodaira-Hasegawa (S-H) or SOWH methods. Our results suggest that although choice in model selection has a strong impact on optimal tree topology, it rarely affects evolutionary inferences drawn from the data because differences are mainly confined to poorly supported nodes. Moreover, since ML with alternative best-fit models tends to produce more similar estimates of phylogeny than ML under the K2P model or MP, the use of any statistically based model-selection method is vastly preferable to forgoing the model-selection process altogether.

Molecular systematics and biogeography of Nicrophorus in part--the investigator species group (Coleoptera: Silphidae) using mixture model MCMC

Burying beetles (Silphidae: Nicrophorus) are well-known for their biparental care and monopolization of small vertebrate carcasses in subterranean crypts. They have been the focus of intense behavioral ecological research since the 1980s yet no thorough phylogenetic estimate for the group exists. The relationships among the species, and the validity of some species, are poorly understood. Here, we infer the relationships and examine species boundaries among 50 individuals representing 15 species, primarily of the investigator species group, using a mixture-model Bayesian analysis. Two mitochondrial genes, COI and COII, were used, providing 2129 aligned nucleotides (567 parsimony-informative). The Akaike Information Criterion and Bayes Factors were used to select the best fitting model, in addition to Reversible Jump MCMC, which accommodated model uncertainty. A 21 parameter, three-partition GTR+G was the final model chosen. Despite a presumed Old World origin for the genus itself, the basal lineages and immediate outgroups of the investigator species group are New World species. Bayesian methods reconstruct the common ancestor of the investigator species group as New World and imply one later transition to the Old World with two return transitions to the New World. Prior hypotheses concerning the questionable validity of four species names, Nicrophorus praedator, Nicrophorus confusus, Nicrophorus encaustus and Nicrophorus mexicanus were tested. No evidence was found for the validity of the Nicrophorus investigator synonym N. praedator. We found evidence rejecting the species status of N. confusus (NEW SYNONYM of Nicrophorus sepultor). Weak evidence was found for the species status of N. encaustus and N. mexicanus, which are tentatively retained as valid. Our results strongly reject a recently published hypothesis that Nicrophorus interruptus (NEW STATUS as valid species) is a subspecies of N. investigator.

Assessing meiofaunal variation among individuals utilising morphological and molecular approaches: an example using the Tardigrada

BACKGROUND

Meiofauna - multicellular animals captured between sieve size 45 mum and 1000 mum - are a fundamental component of terrestrial, and marine benthic ecosystems, forming an integral element of food webs, and playing a critical roll in nutrient recycling. Most phyla have meiofaunal representatives and studies of these taxa impact on a wide variety of sub-disciplines as well as having social and economic implications. However, studies of variation in meiofauna are presented with several important challenges. Isolating individuals from a sample substrate is a time consuming process, and identification requires increasingly scarce taxonomic expertise. Finding suitable morphological characters in many of these organisms is often difficult even for experts. Molecular markers are extremely useful for identifying variation in morphologically conserved organisms. However, for many species markers need to be developed de novo, while DNA can often only be extracted from pooled samples in order to obtain sufficient quantity and quality. Importantly, multiple independent markers are required to reconcile gene evolution with species evolution. In this primarily methodological paper we provide a proof of principle of a novel and effective protocol for the isolation of meiofauna from an environmental sample. We also go on to illustrate examples of the implications arising from subsequent screening for genetic variation at the level of the individual using ribosomal, mitochondrial and single copy nuclear markers.

RESULTS

To isolate individual tardigrades from their habitat substrate we used a non-toxic density gradient media that did not interfere with downstream biochemical processes. Using a simple DNA release technique and nested polymerase chain reaction with universal primers we were able amplify multi-copy and, to some extent, single copy genes from individual tardigrades. Maximum likelihood trees from ribosomal 18S, mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1, and the single copy nuclear gene Wingless support a recent study indicating that the family Hypsibiidae is a non-monophyletic group. From these sequences we were able to detect variation between individuals at each locus that allowed us to identify the presence of cryptic taxa that would otherwise have been overlooked.

CONCLUSION

Molecular results obtained from individuals, rather than pooled samples, are a prerequisite to enable levels of variation to be placed into context. In this study we have provided a proof of principle of this approach for meiofaunal tardigrades, an important group of soil biota previously not considered amenable to such studies, thereby paving the way for more comprehensive phylogenetic studies using multiple nuclear markers, and population genetic studies.

Postglacial range expansion from northern refugia by the wood frog, Rana sylvatica

Although the range dynamics of North American amphibians during the last glacial cycle are increasingly better understood, the recolonization history of the most northern regions and the impact of southern refugia on patterns of intraspecific genetic diversity and phenotypic variation in these regions are not well reconstructed. Here we present the phylogeographic history of a widespread and primarily northern frog, Rana sylvatica. We surveyed 551 individuals from 116 localities across the species' range for a 650-bp region of the NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 and tRNA(TRP) mitochondrial genes. Our phylogenetic analyses revealed two distinct clades corresponding to eastern and western populations, as well as a Maritime subclade within the eastern lineage. Patterns of genetic diversity support multiple refugia. However, high-latitude refugia in the Appalachian highlands and modern-day Wisconsin appear to have had the biggest impact on northern populations. Clustering analyses based on morphology further support a distinction between eastern and western wood frogs and suggest that postglacial migration has played an important role in generating broad-scale patterns of phenotypic variation in this species.

Phylogeography and introgressive hybridization of the ground beetle Carabus yamato in Japan based on mitochondrial gene sequences

To study the phylogeography of the ground beetle Carabus yamato in Japan, we compared 1,020-bp sequences of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 5 (ND5) gene from 373 specimens from 37 localities with those of three parapatric species (C. albrechti, C. kimurai, and C. japonicus) that might share mitochondrial lineages with C. yamato through introgressive hybridization. We found 81 haplotypes from C. yamato. Of these, 17 haplotypes were considered to be of an introgressed lineage from C. albrechti, based on the phylogeny and geographic distribution. In addition, one haplotype of C. kimurai was likely an introgressant from C. yamato. Putative introgression events among the four species were restricted to these two directional cases. We analyzed the phylogeography of C. yamato using nested clade phylogeographical analysis and population genetic parameters. The mitochondrial lineages of C. yamato were estimated to have diverged no more than approximately 1.12 million years ago, implying that the estimated historical events occurred after the Early Pleistocene. Carabus yamato was inferred to have experienced a contraction of its distribution range, followed by recent range expansion. Populations in the western and eastern regions, segregated by Ise Bay and the Nobi and Okazaki Plains, diverged in the mitochondrial clades. The northern and most western populations possessed one clade only (except an introgressed lineage), whereas eastern and some southwestern populations possessed several diverged clades, which were considered to be ancestral; these populations may have been associated with refugia during glacial periods.

GEOLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC FORCES DRIVING SPECIATION IN THE CONTINENTALLY DISTRIBUTED TRILLING CHORUS FROGS (PSEUDACRIS)

Tertiary geological events and Quaternary climatic fluctuations have been proposed as important factors of speciation in the North American flora and fauna. Few studies, however, have rigorously tested hypotheses regarding the specific factors driving divergence of taxa. Here, we test explicit speciation hypotheses by correlating geologic events with divergence times among species in the continentally distributed trilling chorus frogs (Pseudacris). In particular, we ask whether marine inundation of the Mississippi Embayment, uplift of the Appalachian Mountains, or modification of the ancient Teays-Mahomet River system contributed to speciation. To examine the plausibility of ancient rivers causing divergence, we tested whether modern river systems inhibit gene flow. Additionally, we compared the effects of Quaternary climatic factors (glaciation and aridification) on levels of genetic variation. Divergence time estimates using penalized likelihood and coalescent approaches indicate that the major lineages of chorus frogs diversified during the Tertiary, and also exclude Quaternary climate change as a factor in speciation of chorus frogs. We show the first evidence that inundation of the Mississippi Embayment contributed to speciation. We reject the hypotheses that Cenozoic uplift of the Appalachians and that diversion of the Teays-Mahomet River contributed to speciation in this clade. We find that by reducing gene flow, rivers have the potential to cause divergence of lineages. Finally, we demonstrate that populations in areas affected by Quaternary glaciation and aridification have reduced levels of genetic variation compared to those from more equable regions, suggesting recent colonization.

Integrating coalescent and ecological niche modeling in comparative phylogeography

Understanding the factors that contribute to the formation of population genetic structure is a central goal of phylogeographic research, but achieving this goal can be complicated by the stochastic variance inherent to genetic processes. Statistical approaches to testing phylogeographic hypotheses accommodate this stochasticity by evaluating competing models of putative historical population structure, often by simulating null distributions of the expected variance. The effectiveness of these tests depends on the biological realism of the models. Information from the fossil record can aid in reconstructing the historical distributions of some taxa. However, for the majority of taxa, which lack sufficient fossils, paleodistributional modeling can provide valuable spatial-geographic data concerning ancestral distributions. Paleodistributional models are generated by projecting ecological niche models, which predict the current distribution of each species, onto a model of past climatic conditions. Here, we generate paleodistributional models describing the suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum for lineages from the mesic forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America, and use these models to generate alternative phylogeographic hypotheses. Coalescent simulations are then used to test these hypotheses to improve our understanding of the historical events that promoted the formation of population genetic structure in this ecosystem. Results from Pacific Northwest mesic forest organisms demonstrate the utility of these combined approaches. Paleodistribution models and population genetic structure are congruent across three amphibian lineages, suggesting that they have responded in a concerted manner to environmental change. Two other species, a willow and a water vole, despite being currently codistributed and having similar population genetic structure, were predicted by the paleodistributional model to have had markedly different distributions during the last glacial maximum. This suggests that congruent phylogeographic patterns can arise from incongruent ancestral distributions. Paleodistributional models introduce a much-needed spatial-geographic perspective to statistical phylogeography. In conjunction with coalescent models of population genetic structure, they have the potential to improve our understanding of the factors that promote population divergence and ultimately produce regional patterns of biodiversity.

Locating pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions

Ecological niche models (ENMs) provide a means of characterizing the spatial distribution of suitable conditions for species, and have recently been applied to the challenge of locating potential distributional areas at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when unfavorable climate conditions led to range contractions and fragmentation. Here, we compare and contrast ENM-based reconstructions of LGM refugial locations with those resulting from the more traditional molecular genetic and phylogeographic predictions. We examined 20 North American terrestrial vertebrate species from different regions and with different range sizes for which refugia have been identified based on phylogeographic analyses, using ENM tools to make parallel predictions. We then assessed the correspondence between the two approaches based on spatial overlap and areal extent of the predicted refugia. In 14 of the 20 species, the predictions from ENM and predictions based on phylogeographic studies were significantly spatially correlated, suggesting that the two approaches to development of refugial maps are converging on a similar result. Our results confirm that ENM scenario exploration can provide a useful complement to molecular studies, offering a less subjective, spatially explicit hypothesis of past geographic patterns of distribution.

Estimating a geographically explicit model of population divergence

Patterns of genetic variation can provide valuable insights for deciphering the relative roles of different evolutionary processes in species differentiation. However, population-genetic models for studying divergence in geographically structured species are generally lacking. Since these are the biogeographic settings where genetic drift is expected to predominate, not only are population-genetic tests of hypotheses in geographically structured species constrained, but generalizations about the evolutionary processes that promote species divergence may also be potentially biased. Here we estimate a population-divergence model in montane grasshoppers from the sky islands of the Rocky Mountains. Because this region was directly impacted by Pleistocene glaciation, both the displacement into glacial refugia and recolonization of montane habitats may contribute to differentiation. Building on the tradition of using information from the genealogical relationships of alleles to infer the geography of divergence, here the additional consideration of the process of gene-lineage sorting is used to obtain a quantitative estimate of population relationships and historical associations (i.e., a population tree) from the gene trees of five anonymous nuclear loci and one mitochondrial locus in the broadly distributed species Melanoplus oregonensis. Three different approaches are used to estimate a model of population divergence; this comparison allows us to evaluate specific methodological assumptions that influence the estimated history of divergence. A model of population divergence was identified that significantly fits the data better compared to the other approaches, based on per-site likelihood scores of the multiple loci, and that provides clues about how divergence proceeded in M. oregonensis during the dynamic Pleistocene. Unlike the approaches that either considered only the most recent coalescence (i.e., information from a single individual per population) or did not consider the pattern of coalescence in the gene genealogies, the population-divergence model that best fits the data was estimated by considering the pattern of gene lineage coalescence across multiple individuals, as well as loci. These results indicate that sampling of multiple individuals per population is critical to obtaining an accurate estimate of the history of divergence so that the signal of common ancestry can be separated from the confounding influence of gene flow-even though estimates suggest that gene flow is not a predominant factor structuring patterns of genetic variation across these sky island populations. They also suggest that the gene genealogies contain information about population relationships, despite the lack of complete sorting of gene lineages. What emerges from the analyses is a model of population divergence that incorporates both contemporary distributions and historical associations, and shows a latitudinal and regional structuring of populations reminiscent of population displacements into multiple glacial refugia. Because the population-divergence model itself is built upon the specific events shaping the history of M. oregonensis, it provides a framework for estimating additional population-genetic parameters relevant to understanding the processes governing differentiation in geographically structured species and avoids the problems of relying on overly simplified and inaccurate divergence models. The utility of these approaches, as well as the caveats and future improvements, for estimating population relationships and historical associations relevant to genetic analyses of geographically structured species are discussed.