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Cowan S, Lang S, Goldstein R, Enticott J, Taylor F, Teede H, Moran LJ. Identifying Predictor Variables for a Composite Risk Prediction Tool for Gestational Diabetes and Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy: A Modified Delphi Study. Healthcare (Basel) 2024; 12:1361. [PMID: 38998895 PMCID: PMC11241067 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare12131361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2024] [Revised: 07/01/2024] [Accepted: 07/01/2024] [Indexed: 07/14/2024] Open
Abstract
A composite cardiometabolic risk prediction tool will support the systematic identification of women at increased cardiometabolic risk during pregnancy to enable early screening and intervention. This study aims to identify and select predictor variables for a composite risk prediction tool for cardiometabolic risk (gestational diabetes mellitus and/or hypertensive disorders of pregnancy) for use in the first trimester. A two-round modified online Delphi study was undertaken. A prior systematic literature review generated fifteen potential predictor variables for inclusion in the tool. Multidisciplinary experts (n = 31) rated the clinical importance of variables in an online survey and nominated additional variables for consideration (Round One). An online meeting (n = 14) was held to deliberate the importance, feasibility and acceptability of collecting variables in early pregnancy. Consensus was reached in a second online survey (Round Two). Overall, 24 variables were considered; 9 were eliminated, and 15 were selected for inclusion in the tool. The final 15 predictor variables related to maternal demographics (age, ethnicity/race), pre-pregnancy history (body mass index, height, history of chronic kidney disease/polycystic ovarian syndrome, family history of diabetes, pre-existing diabetes/hypertension), obstetric history (parity, history of macrosomia/pre-eclampsia/gestational diabetes mellitus), biochemical measures (blood glucose levels), hemodynamic measures (systolic blood pressure). Variables will inform the development of a cardiometabolic risk prediction tool in subsequent research. Evidence-based, clinically relevant and routinely collected variables were selected for a composite cardiometabolic risk prediction tool for early pregnancy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Cowan
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Clinical Sciences, Monash University, Mulgrave, VIC 3170, Australia; (S.C.); (S.L.); (R.G.); (J.E.); (H.T.)
| | - Sarah Lang
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Clinical Sciences, Monash University, Mulgrave, VIC 3170, Australia; (S.C.); (S.L.); (R.G.); (J.E.); (H.T.)
| | - Rebecca Goldstein
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Clinical Sciences, Monash University, Mulgrave, VIC 3170, Australia; (S.C.); (S.L.); (R.G.); (J.E.); (H.T.)
- Monash Endocrine and Diabetes Units, Monash Health, Clayton, Melbourne, VIC 3168, Australia
| | - Joanne Enticott
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Clinical Sciences, Monash University, Mulgrave, VIC 3170, Australia; (S.C.); (S.L.); (R.G.); (J.E.); (H.T.)
| | - Frances Taylor
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Clinical Sciences, Monash University, Mulgrave, VIC 3170, Australia; (S.C.); (S.L.); (R.G.); (J.E.); (H.T.)
| | - Helena Teede
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Clinical Sciences, Monash University, Mulgrave, VIC 3170, Australia; (S.C.); (S.L.); (R.G.); (J.E.); (H.T.)
- Monash Endocrine and Diabetes Units, Monash Health, Clayton, Melbourne, VIC 3168, Australia
| | - Lisa J. Moran
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Clinical Sciences, Monash University, Mulgrave, VIC 3170, Australia; (S.C.); (S.L.); (R.G.); (J.E.); (H.T.)
- Victorian Heart Institute, Monash Health, Clayton, Melbourne, VIC 3168, Australia
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Mohammed O, Magdy A, Askalany A, Salem S, Abdel-Rasheed M, Ghobary H, Elsayed S. Role of Maternal Uterine Artery Doppler Versus Serum β-hCG During the First Trimester in the Prediction of Preeclampsia and IUGR. JOURNAL OF DIAGNOSTIC MEDICAL SONOGRAPHY 2021. [DOI: 10.1177/87564793211051986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Objective: Preeclampsia accounts for 15% of maternal deaths and may cause fetal morbidity and mortality. The aim of this research was to evaluate the efficacy of maternal uterine artery Doppler versus serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), during the first trimester, in predicting preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). Materials and Methods: In a convenient sample of 388 pregnant women, uterine artery resistive index (RI) and pulsatility index (PI) were assessed, and serum β-hCG level was measured at 11 to 13 weeks of gestation. The patients’ maternal blood pressure and fetal growth were monitored. Results: The patients with preeclampsia (n = 58) showed a significant uterine RI and PI increase with a significant β-hCG decrease compared with the normotensive patients (n = 330). The specificity of uterine PI and RI to predict preeclampsia and IUGR is higher than that of β-hCG. However, the sensitivity of combined diagnostic tools is higher than the singular use of these diagnostic tests. Conclusion: Uterine artery Doppler may be better than serum β-hCG in predicting preeclampsia and IUGR. However, combined diagnostic techniques may be better to screen at-risk patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omar Mohammed
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Ahmed Magdy
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Ahmed Askalany
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Sondos Salem
- Department of Reproductive Health Research, National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Mazen Abdel-Rasheed
- Department of Reproductive Health Research, National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Hany Ghobary
- Department of Chemical Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Sameh Elsayed
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
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